So Materiality is now retired and Upstart has not been Upstart since March.
This is bringing back memories of Proud Appeal and Cure The Blues. Three year olds running their eyeballs out against each other in March may look nice on their respective graphs, but at what price?
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Point well taken. I had been thinking about when Second of June-Read the Footnotes hooked up in 2004 Fountain of Youth which knocked both horses out. Read the Footnotes has some potential similarities to Upstart. NY bred Violette horse, negative number as 2YO in NY, got back to his top right away at GP in the FOY in an epic stretch duel. Was my Derby pick. Dont think he ever ran a step again.
2nd of June named after the trainers Bill Caesars mother birthday.
I had the pleasure of being around Bill he was very high on the horse from the start I believe the horse was injured and retired.
Read that if AP goes to Travers Upstart won\'t go.
Thought Upstart put up one heck of an effort off the layoff. When your running vs a super freak its tough to compare. Like him still in the solid 2nd slot in the Travers 12-15 lengths behind AP of course. Still think he\'s more physically talented then Texas Red & Frosted.
Chas,
Not sure which is a sillier statement
Pharaoh winning by 12-15 lengths or u liking upstart for second off the haskell effort.
I am done insisting AP is a \"value bet against\", but he isn\'t winning any races by double digits. For lots of reasons.
As for upstart. Sticking with preconceived notions for too long is deadly in this game. U need to analyze the facts as they continue to amass. I stayed with materiality too long. Upstart just not the same horse anymore until proven otherwise. His derby was a nightmare and his haskell weak. It was ok IMO to bet him in the haskell off the one bad race. Any reasonable interpretation of the horse has to STROnGlY consider that he won\'t be the same horse again. Knocked out by too many big early figures.
Rob
I agree ring. Whether AP runs in the Travers or not, Upstart will be lucky to run 4th. He had a decent effort first start off the layoff, but I don\'t think he is beating Texas Red or Frosted in the Travers.
Rob, appreciate your stubbornness and willing to post an opinion, but your are out to lunch on \"preconceived notions\".
A preconceived notion is known as a \"tenet\" in competent handicapping circles.
Examples could include:
1) Not betting a horse getting first time blinkers drawing inside? Hit rate one percent.
2) Not betting a deep closer, on turf, with the rail in play; hit rate close to zero.
3) Not betting a small barn horse drawing outside going two turns. Hit rate never.
I could go on but you get the idea. In this new age of \"microwave\" handicapping the industry\'s main problem in my opinion, is educating the players; few have any clue.
bbb
BBB,
Out to lunch? while you may appreciate my stubbornness, I actually don\'t appreciate the many misinformed statements you make on the board, without any supporting facts. But it isn\'t my board, so not much I can do about it.
On what planet that you live on don\'t people get hung up on what they perceive to be a horse\'s capabilities or potential? See a flashy performance that never gets repeated? Happens every day with many horses.
Hmm... Yep, there are bugs and there are windshields. I have my guess as to which category you fall into, but I won\'t \"assert it\", since I don\'t have facts.
But if you sit in \"competent handicapping circles\", you should be thrilled at the lack of \"education of players\".
But since I haven\'t seen any solid \"pre-race\" opinions from you, I am not sure exactly sure what circle you sit in.....
Rob
Where\'s the data behind 1,2 and 3?
Way to stop a conversation dude! LMAO.
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Where\'s the data behind 1,2 and 3?
Data? We don\'t need no stinking data.
And what the hell is \"microwave\" handicapping?
Speaking of which, I hereby invent the term Trump handicapping. I could have gone with O \'Reilly handicapping, since it refers to making unsupported assertions, loudly and with authority, but with Trump the bigmouth de jour I think it has to be him. And really, Trump is in a class by himself re this...
Anyway, I\'m back from Saratoga.
Bugs and windshields aside Rob I did not intend to single you out and am sorry if you took it that way.
I suspect your apparent angst concerns Bayern a horse you were high on a few weeks ago going a flat mile at Belmont in a grade one. I posted the colts chances as \"very slim\" and it was labeled an assertion. In hindsight, I should have included the \"fact\" that in his comebacker in Louisville, Derby w/end, that the colt was perhaps a hundred pounds overweight. His chance of being fit for his next was well, very slim.
As for my many misinformed statements you\'re entitled to your opinion.
JB, Horses are claustrophobic and first blinkers while drawing inside is never good. Not much else to say on that tenet; though perhaps they win at two or three percent.
As for the turf rail, again hardly a secret. As the rail moves out more of the race (at most tracks) is run on turns, hence the pace is slower which does not favor deep closers and they seldom win.
As for small barns drawing outside I should have posted that this tenet mostly applies to the first time they attempt a route. By definition small barns are short on workmates and their horses by drawing outside are in quite unfamiliar circumstances.
No doubt someone will post sooner or later (probably the latter) that some horse overcame these difficult circumstances and won. There are few absolutes in \'capping.
My main point in posting is the newer players are using a microwave approach and within a short time they leave the game. Breeze figs, formulator facts, anything bris puts out, and lastly your competitor\'s ridiculous assumption that there are such items as conditioning moves are just a few examples that sadly players trying to learn the game take as gospel. bbb
You apparently don\'t get this. I don\'t care what your reasoning is, stop presenting opinion as fact. Stop making unsupported assertions like 1,2 and 3. They carry no weight in any discussion where the participants have even the slightest degree of ability to do critical analysis. (That one is for Dick Powell).
I don\'t want to poke at the troll (they have majik) but are you saying that if they publish stats that a barn is 0-25 stretching out or 3 for 56 with first time turf, this is nonsense that a new player will find harmful?
Pray tell, what are you using that\'s more powerful?
Boscar, appreciate your posts over the last eight or so years. Stretching out needs more definition. A 2yo going from 5 panels to say six and a half is certainly up against it. In a more common sense going from one turn to two and the conditioner is nil for 25; almost certainly a toss all other things equal. First time two turns is seldom a good play.
Point two, 3 for 56 first turf I would find irrelevant if the horse was bred for it, providing other germane capping factors were in order.
Nevertheless you appear to understand my point, many new players are betting statistics and such rather than the animal himself.
bbb
BBB,
I don\'t feel singled out. Quite the contrary. I am VERY comfortable with my understanding of the many facets of handicapping this game. Very complex and multi-dimensional game. Which is the point u seem to be missing. Anybody that makes very strong assertions and definitive statements about this game \"doesn\'t get it\". Data always worth being analyzed and considered. Binary, black and white statements, foolish.
As for your revisionist statement about Bayern, go back and read your post and my bone of contention. U made no statement about his conditioning or fitness, which would have been worth considering. U said he isn\'t a one turn horse. A silly statement given his huge woody Stephens run in a sprint. Seeing Bayern come back and run relatively poorly again at Delmar (around 2 turns), doesn\'t support your position at all.
I haven\'t met u, yet i am very comfortable that I have u slotted correctly. Another guy who isn\'t wrong and when he is, it is the rest of us that don\'t get it. I knew that last year when I first started looking at this board. If memory serves correct u railed endlessly about Chrome not being any good, over rated, etc,etc. he romps in the derby and your first post was a self congratulatory one about how much money u made betting the horse who came second underneath the horse u hated. Even if true (unlikely), any normal person would have felt like a fool posting that. Not u. U had to post that u were right.
Good luck. U will need it,
Done responding.
Rob
You know, even though I kept ridiculously detailed records back in the day, and knew players that honed in on what\'s now widely known as \'trainer stats\' , my focus was always horse centric.
I think that was a mistake then and now. While the horse is still paramount, you really need to know if there\'s some chink in the armor of the conditioner, that might be a hindrance.
There\'s not much difference between winning and running second or third with a well placed/suited horse, and if the trainer has show ineptitude under these conditions in the past, you\'re probably in trouble. Sure , anything can win, at any time. (see Mott FTS at SAR this year), but betting into a negative stat is a hard way to make an easy living.
My two cents on Upstart is this; his Derby was a toss, his return effort in the Haskell was not terrible, and maybe he would be better off going to the King\'s Bishop than the Travers where he may have distance limitations. It seems like this horse goes up to 8.5 furlongs and that\'s it.
Well I can\'t deny a lot of my comments are silly....especially winning by 12-15 vs serious horse flesh. But I am happy to see that your done insisting AP is a \"value bet against\", I respect your opinion on Upstart and have been playing him since I saw him in person last year. The huge figs early is an easy one. Its all out the window anyway because he wants no part of AP in the Travers. I just wish there was something more creative that I could find with AP now. Auto single in the Pick 6 of course...but then the pick 4 is a pick 3 with him and the pick 3 is a pick 2.
Dammit I wanted to bring up the Read the Footnotes comparison. Good call.
My take is this.I would include daredevil as well.Those huge efforts as a 2 year old with no foundation to support those efforts.Have lead to the Retirement Of Materiality and Carpe Diem.Both ran huge figs as a 2 year old early 3 year old in the case of Materiality.The lack of progression thru conditions or building up those points to make the derby is cutting the racing careers short.Sad but true