A.P to run in Travers if up to him..
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/93412/zayat-american-pharoah-to-run-in-travers
What\'s the over/under between now and then of \"Keen Ice upsetting AP/Graveyard of Favorites\" posts?
Good Luck,
Joe B.
None by Thoro-Graph players. a) Very unlikely Baffert will run at Saratoga-- he has a history of getting big numbers at Mth, but not at Saratoga, and b) Keen Ice will not be a play for TG users. And whether AP runs or not that will be one of the toughest Travers fields ever from a figure perspective.
One thing that\'s clear at this point is that I got the Derby right, more because of KI than AP.
Beyer was ballpark for both 3yo races this weekend.
JB,
Why can Baffert get them to run at Monmouth, but not Saratoga?
Would it have to do with Monmouth being kinder to speed? Saratoga being a track more neutral to running styles??
Does testing have anything to do with it?
Disappointing if AP doesn\'t run in the Travers.
Can u expand on the K.Ice Derby comment? I don\'t get it.
Rags had AP in the TG minus -1.50 range
His sheet would make no sense if his Derby figure was slower. It would mean he jumped way forward for no reason in the Belmont and then didn\'t bounce. Sheet looks much better this way.
(AP also paired his top, the Derby number, but we all think he could have run at least a little faster Saturday. The faster you think he could have run, the less likely his Derby was worse).
I think they\'re more like 4-5 slower now, on those occasions they get it right.
A reason would be conjecture. But look at Bayern\'s sheet for a refresher, in the BC Archives. If someone wants to make a list we can take a look, I know Point Given ran big, not sure about others.
Lots of Baffert 3yos look really good at Monmouth...
Zayat/Baffert could take the easy road and beat up on The Little Sisters Of The Poor in the PA Derby, then BC Classic finale.Nice horses lined up for Travers but with no real early gas amongst that group, AP a walk in the park if he repeats his Haskell
If AP goes Travers, Upstart should go PA Derby.
JB,
Problem has been looked at long enough. There is no constant in converting Rags to any other credible fig maker. Use 3, 3.5 or 4 depending on which way the wind blows, so to speak.
mike
His record there aside, I can\'t see Baffert running at Saratoga AND running at Parx before the BC, and I also can\'t see him going straight from the Travers to the Classic-- we tried it with VG but that was because he got sick after the Travers. Unless he has no say it will be Parx, and a serious appearance fee.
Not sure if true but hear Baffert and Zayat would each receive $250K for AP to run in PA Derby
Paul,
With certainty can tell you that SPA dirt surface is usually nowhere near as tight as the tight surfaces AP has been running on.Both NYRA,pre Belmont, and Monmouth, pre Haskell were lobbied by AP connections for \"tight\"dirt surface...both delivered.
A careful review of Baffert runners affirm that they do much better on tight surfaces, many of them speed horses.
Mike
It surprised me to see they were shipping ap back to Cali with the obvious targets being on the east coast. Is that typical baffert move or could it be a tell on what he is thinking?
Joe B,
Would like to see Keen Ice \"upset\" a nwx2 allowance field, not American Pharaoh.
The horse hasn\'t run a fast race. Ever.
Do they still have the 1 3/4 Breeder\'s Cup Marathon? Maybe he can point for that.
Rob
I have also wondered about Bafferts wild success rate shipping into Monmouth. When AP arrived here on Wednesday, I listened to a group of sportswriters toss out possible clues as to why his horses perform so well here. Some observations were well above my pay grade. One thought is that the weather, humidity, & temperature at Del Mar is very similar to that of the Jersey Shore made the most sense to me. AP arrived close to the race. Not much time for a negative adjustment - if one was coming. Runs his race. Ships out Monday morning.
Hmm...
If I were to make a list, \"weather and humidity\" would be items 97 and 98 on the list of reasons why Baffert does better at Monmouth.
Baffert did relatively poor at Delmar with Polytrack and Santa Anita when they had Pro-Ride. those were tiring, closer biased surfaces on most days. Not saying Saratoga is necessarily like that, but the surface at Saratoga is quite a bit different than Monmouth. Monmouth almost always plays to speed, sort of like the old Keenland dirt surface. The surface is tight, the kind where they say the \"horse\'s feet rattle\". Baffert trains lots of horses with natural speed. How many deep closers you see Baffert train?
Saratoga races at 1 1/8 and 1 1/4 are true distance tests, where you need to have stamina and speed to win. You can be a miler with brilliant speed and easily carry your form to 1 1/8 at Monmouth (sort of like Gulfstream in most years, albeit not 2015)
Rob
Not if it\'s wet. Look for him to enter and scratch if it comes up dry or cuppy.
Agree. Betting that if AP goes (no matter who else is in there) the Ice is made the solid second choice by the Spa lemmings.
Good Luck,
Joe B