Ask the Experts

General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: ringato3 on August 02, 2015, 02:59:41 PM

Title: Figures
Post by: ringato3 on August 02, 2015, 02:59:41 PM
Not sure why, but the figures just don\'t tell the story with this horse.  He continues to win by open lengths.

A canter.  

Maybe time to stop trying to bet against him...

Upstart not the same horse he was.  Good trip.  No run.

Rob
Title: Re: Figures
Post by: Boscar Obarra on August 02, 2015, 03:09:35 PM
It was time long ago. Better late than never.
Title: Re: Figures
Post by: miff on August 02, 2015, 03:17:13 PM
Think Upstart raced like a short horse and instead of riding for 2nd money Bravo tried to win.Like to see his next start.

Good point that figs not really reflective of AP\'s racetrack ability.
Title: Re: Figures
Post by: Silver Charm on August 02, 2015, 03:48:37 PM
Upstart made more running 3rd today than he would have running 2nd in the Dandy. I think I said that the other day AND he probably needed a race.

I for one believe in the numbers. Holy Boss was a steal yesterday with a Neg 2 in his last and off at the same 2-1 odds as his nearest competitors who had run no better than 2\'s. Pharoah does the one thing that counts the most. He makes his own trip and wins! Remember Seattle Slew was slow on Ragozin Sheets. There are more similarities than that between these two and its in the gliding running styles.

Upstart is a really good horse. Give him time. But don\'t get ahead of things. He wasn\'t winning this race today....
Title: Re: Figures
Post by: TGJB on August 02, 2015, 03:56:22 PM
The way he ran today he wasn\'t winning any race he was eligible for. Keen Ice is no monster, even if you give him his top.
Title: Re: Figures
Post by: miff on August 02, 2015, 03:59:09 PM
Three races in a row which AP was held late also gives him slower figs
Title: Re: Figures
Post by: TGJB on August 02, 2015, 04:29:32 PM
Don\'t know about the other two but certainly today. If KI didn\'t run a new top AP will get a relatively slow figure with a \"h?\".
Title: Re: Figures
Post by: Boscar Obarra on August 02, 2015, 06:47:48 PM
Just watched again, that wasn\'t a held.

 That was a Never Asked.
Title: Re: Figures
Post by: johnnym on August 02, 2015, 07:03:20 PM
Agree the horse is a beast no matter what the numbers say.
Title: Re: Figures
Post by: beazley on August 02, 2015, 08:18:08 PM
What would his figure be for the mile in 1:34.4 from the two path?  Still would need a h for that too!

He ran his last furlong in 13.6. Easily could have been 12.2 IMHO. I think that\'s 3.5 pts on TG
Title: Re: Figures
Post by: alydar61 on August 02, 2015, 08:18:20 PM
This colt was let go for 4 or 5 seconds on the turn, and wrapped up the rest of the trip.

Woodward-BC Classic would be my move.
Title: Re: Figures
Post by: T Severini on August 02, 2015, 08:42:18 PM
Boscar Obarra Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Just watched again, that wasn\'t a held.
>
>  That was a Never Asked.


I thought the horse ran pretty hard. The jock tried to put him away but the horse ran on. Another track at more distance and its there.

Competitive Edge not a bad horse, made him run a bit, but it wasn\'t the right venue. That is coming.
Title: Re: Figures
Post by: Rick B. on August 03, 2015, 03:29:13 AM
T Severini Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Competitive Edge not a bad horse, made him run a
> bit, but it wasn\'t the right venue. That is coming.

Yes. So is Christmas.
Title: Re: Figures
Post by: miff on August 03, 2015, 05:03:27 AM
Beyer top of 109 for AP would make it in the TG -3 range after weight and ground adj.Plenty of reference points with 5 two turn races.



Doubt AP will face older horses before BC Classic. Best scenario is a walkover in PA Derby then BC Classic or Travers and BC Classic.

Believe PA Derby carries huge bonuses for Baffert and Zayat, like $250k.
Title: Re: Figures
Post by: TGJB on August 03, 2015, 08:57:31 AM
He\'ll get better than Bradester, just eyeballing it.