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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: Silver Charm on July 30, 2015, 04:08:23 PM

Title: Untappable
Post by: Silver Charm on July 30, 2015, 04:08:23 PM
I see she is in on Sunday at The Spa in the Shuvee. Probably gonna take a bunch of money again off those now distant minus numbers she was running in the spring of her 3YO campaign.

I don\'t know, when I looked at her running in the last race on Belmont Day I didn\'t see an older mare who looked any bigger than her competitors. And perhaps even a little smaller. Unlike last year where she appeared to be about a hand bigger than the other 3YO Fillys she faced.  

She is giving a point in weight and Im gonna try and beat her again. This is a beatable chalk who has been getting beaten. Unlike the BIG FAV down at Monmouth....
Title: Re: Untappable
Post by: FrankD. on July 30, 2015, 04:23:36 PM
Dale,

She is certainly not the first great fillie we\'ve seen not come back the same as the year before for sure.
Title: Re: Untappable
Post by: Silver Charm on July 31, 2015, 07:48:19 AM
Frank I think I know where you are leading with that one. Here with Untappable she has yet to prove she is the same filly she was in first half of last year, this year and the last half of last year too.

I\'m sure there will be some who will look at her last number as a positive condition move but its only consistent with her last 4 efforts last year. Maybe its the old its a long year and they haven\'t tightened the screws yet story....

But from a handicapping perspective she is spotting 1 point in weight to all others. She is consistently 3-4 WIDE in EVERY race! Thats another point! Add in that she will be 3 or 4-5 and others like House Rules who she only nosed in her last will be 3-1 or more and this one is an obvious bet against. And that doesn\'t discount that she cant win. Its just the wrong handicapping approach and a bad bet...