Show me the moneeeeeeee . . . .
We drew the rail, don\'t know much else yet. Supposedly Repole put two in.
Upstart and Bravo on rail at Monmouth at this distance makes this a very interesting race all of a sudden.
Leading us into the grand finale of Duck Soup . . .
Trentino: What did I call you?
Firefly: Gosh, I don\'t even remember what it was.
y
Trentino: Well, do you mean . . . worm?
Firefly: No, that wasn\'t it.
Trentino: I know . . . swine!
Firefly: Uh, uh.
No, it was a seven-letter word.
Trentino: Oh, yes . . . UPSTART!
Firefly: That\'s it . .. UPSTART! (SLAP)
This means WAR!
Look at how a miler like Coal Play almost pulled it off against Big Brown. Personally, I am not sure Upstart is a classic distance horse, but you don\'t need to be at Monmouth on Haskell day.
Not sure why you think the rail is a big help.
The working theory that Upstart takes it to American Pharaoh out of the gate? Somebody please point me to the race in the PPs where it looks like that can happen.
Will guess that he leaves for position, saves ground into the first turn, hopes somebody else goes after AP early (Competitive Edge if he runs here) and then attacks on the turn.
Being sensitive to the fact that the board owner is involved in the deal, very hard to get inspired about his chances off a horrendous effort in the Derby and with the benefit of hindsight, not sure how the Florida Derby is holding up as a fast race.
The horse was so horrible in the Derby, \"distance\" wasn\'t the issue. He stopped running after about 50 feet. His two prior races can give credence to those that think he has distance limitations. That said, 1 1/8 at Monmouth track, particularly on what is usually a souped up track on Haskell day surface, is hardly a huge distance test (huge test for sure in other ways, but the surface is kind to horses with some degree of distance limitation)
Hey, going after the money and the big boy at Monmouth certainly a sporty move by the connections. Personally, I think he would have won the Jim Dandy and the gambler in me would have singled him there, whereas I will just watch him race at Monmouth.
Rob
There\'s about 1.15 Million, and probably even a few more, reasons to run in the Haskell vs the Jim Dandy. Even 2nd place in the Haskell is worth a ton of $, and almost as much as winning the Jim Dandy.
Agreed and that\'s the first thing I thought when I heard of the switch in races. They already know he likes Saratoga. This is an easy ship down and back from his training base. AND they may be shipping in with the idea that they don\'t have to win off the layoff. Just run their race.
Are you guys looking at the same sheets I am???
Bravo and the rail at MP. You\'ll be lucky to get 7/2 on him.
Saw Violette in Saratoga last weekend. Asked him how Upstart was doing. \"Working great, we\'re looking to get him going again.....Jim Dandy then hopefully the Travers.\"
Not going to be pushing people out of the way to get to the window.
Good Luck,
Joe B
Joe B,
It is 2015, not 2008.
Bravo isn\'t even \"the man\" there anymore. Paco Lopez is bet more than Bravo is.
The price won\'t be the problem. pretty good chance that competitive edge goes off second choice, not Upstart. Upstart hasn\'t won a race since the winter. (March)
Pharaoh will be bet at least as heavily as Rachel was in the Haskell. 5-1 or so on Upstart shouldn\'t be a problem.
Winning the race will be a lot harder than getting the right price.
TGJB,
I see the sheets and from a purist sheet read, I guess I would be foaming at the mouth to bet Upstart at 5-1 or so against Pharaoh at 2-5 or lower. The problem is that the sheet doesn\'t tell the whole story IMO.
I don\'t care that AP ran a \"slow figure\" in the Belmont. He, nor almost any other horse in our breed, is bred to run 1 1/2 on dirt. He galloped and the slow pace he ran because Materiality was a can of shit, made a fast figure impossible. His Preakness is another \"slow\" figure. Not really, he speed popped the field and ran them all into the ground. His Derby is his top and yet the connections claim he didn\'t like the track. I don\'t know, from a \"performance assessment\", which we as handicappers have to do, I think the three triple crown races are about the same. (factoring trip, speed figures, pace, etc.etc)
I figure him to run another race right in that range from a performance perspective. Can he lose ground or be pushed on the pace Sunday? Maybe.
Which brings me to Upstart. I know you said \"best sheet for a young horse that you have seen in many years, including Rachel\". (sorry if I didn\'t get that exactly right, but I think you did post something similar to that. Yep, can\'t question his 2 year old foundation and ability. He ran really well. When it comes to his 3-year old year, I am more skeptical now, with the benefit of hindsight. I was on board that the Florida Derby was the top Derby prep race, by far. Fastest horses, top competition. and I bet accordingly thereafter. Materiality has turned out to be awful, as many on this board predicted pre-Derby and I wasted time and money defending and betting on him. Upstart was awful in the Derby and couldn\'t get by Materiality with a good trip in the Florida Derby (ground loss offset by dead speed track and outside bias that day). His race before the Floriday Derby was OK, but geez, that was an awful surface and he looked exhausted the last quarter or so. The race before was good, but 1 1/16th. I don\'t know how good this horse is. it is at least a fair question if he is a classic early developer that doesn\'t get better and has distance limitations.
That said, if I get 5-1 or so, I am likely to bet him. i think I am getting compensated for the questions.
Rob
Rob:
What\'s the right price?
Good Luck,
Joe B.
I\'m letting some batting practice fastballs go here because we have a seminar up... but unless you (Ring) are taking the position Materiality ran the same in his next two as in the Fla Derby there\'s no reason to think his Fla Derby figure should be worse. What, everybody got it wrong 6 points, 20 on Beyer?
With 20 lengths to third and Materiality and Upstart running poorly after, it\'s far more likely that was a big one that cooked at least one of them (the one with little foundation, as discussed in the Derby seminar), and hopefully just one of them. Materiality not making a short field in the Jim Dandy certainly backs up this idea.
As for someone\'s comment about 1 1/8th, that\'s effin hilarious. You want to take a position a horse can\'t get a distance he hasn\'t tried yet okay, that\'s at least a conversation, if you do more than just make an assertion. But to claim a horse can\'t get a distance he\'s already run his top at is just nonsense, whatever happens Sunday.
There are questions concerning Upstart-- what happened in Ky, did the big Fla races cook him, how tight he is off a layoff, can he ship and run his race (hasn\'t yet in two tries). But not the ones being asked here.
Joe
Tough question, at least for me. U are talking about a stubborn stubborn person, who has been betting against American Pharaoh. Maybe the only idiot that singled Tepin and used Slumber in the belmont day pick 4, but insisted on tossing Pharaoh.
I am still skeptical about how good AP is (see stubborn comment).
I think he wins the Haskell race about 50 to 60 percent of the time. Since I think he goes off 1-5, I am compelled to bet against.
5-1 is fair on Upstart for me.
Rob
I think AP is going to be 1-9 and Upstart 10-1+.
My biggest question on Upstart is whether he has can use the PP draw to get a ground saving trip and then angle out in stretch, or is he a horse that needs to race wide.
Upstart ran big when fresh at GP, I\'ll take 10/1 on him and hope Competitive Edge or Mr. Jordan goes after AP early to soften him up. Jim Dandy looks more like a Jim Dud now with defections.
Just don\'t see the champ going down here..my opinion he is still improving as well. Good luck to you JB
I agree with Ring here. I too have been betting against AP with no luck. Drooling for some good opportunities. I was hoping upstart would match up with him later at juicier odds. Wanted to not bet this one and have AP win easily and then load up against him in one of the next two. But now with Upstart in I have to bet him.
its funny the speed horse in here that ran on derby day would have won the derby on that day. Lets just hope all have learned a lesson and they go after AP from the start rather than waiting, waiting,......
A little concerned about the inside post for Upstart. Seemed on derby day he really hated the dirt in his face.
Who cares. There are better places to find a 5-1 shot. Why blow good powder here? Cause it\'s the Haskell?
With what is left of my voice, which is not much, ole #2 looked good for a long time I agree with you a live 5/1 horses with no ??? who doesn\'t have to beat a triple crown champion in his prime can be found every day and powder is precious.
Here\'s my take that no one has mentioned, I don\'t see AP a classic distance horse. Yes he won a triple crown but my point is he that he is even better at a shorter distance.
Pletcher may come after him in waves but AP wins in a walk with Upstart the cheapest exacta I\'ll look elsewhere also.
Agree. His Arkansas Derby was scary.
Good Luck,
Joe B
or show you the koolaid
Whatever the result of the race, I have to say I\'m flabbergasted at what has happened to this board.
Seriously JB,\"flabergasted\".Any # for the 5 @ MNR?
This board rocks in my opinion.
Yes, I could have used a much stronger word. This is a TG board, not a fanboy or voodoo board. We handicap using performance figures.
If the track stayed the same at GP that day ( a big if if, hence the box, for now) around a 9-10 for the Mnr 2yo.
A lot of us are still shell shocked by his derby.
Thanks JB.
Don\'t know why, but it\'s not the shellshock board either.
This is a game of percentages. This is supposed to be the most sophisticated board in the industry, everyone is expected to realize that, among other things.
I have my own theory regarding the Derby and the Florida Derby as well. Let\'s see how he likes the inside post and proceed from their.. Good luck
That\'s a perfect example of what I\'m talking about.
Staring at the sheets all week, I don\'t think its Kool-Aid.
Upstart is 35% to win if he gets back to a top that he has already paired, the works say he\'s ready and he\'s likely to be 10-1+.
On August 13, 1919 we had Upset.
On August 2, 2015 will we have Upstart?
Just speaking for myself but watching my key horse get eased in the Derby was pretty disappointing. Not questioning any of his numbers. Just not ready to go all in on him right away...especially not in this spot. Hope I\'m wrong. It\'ll make for a more interesting second half.
He would be a good bet at 10-1 but I don\'t think you\'ll get half that.
Opened at 15-1 2nd choice.
There was $750,000 to win on AP and $230,000 to Show almost out of the blocks. This isn\'t $2.00 Joe Public with Souvenir tickets. Who said dumb money left the game...
And if the big bet gets cancelled?
Results speak for themselves. Ill keep to my theory.
Good luck you..
Won eased up. AP in a class all by himself.
Ultra impressive.
Keen Ice will give Texas Red-Frosted all they can handle in Travers if AP chooses elsewhere.
Upstart should target BC dirt mile and Cigar Mile. Will not win at 9F and beyond against graded stakes horses this year. Maybe next year? Lawyer Ron comes to mind as a horse that was able to run his top figures as a 4YO at 9F+ after moving to TAP barn while appearing distance limited as a 3YO.
You\'re a riot.
Maybe Lawyer Ron didn\'t run three huge consecutive negative numbers as a 4YO at 9 and 10F after backing up and running Xs at his two 10F tries as a 3YO, but that is my recollection.
As for Upstart, the next time I lose money on him at 9F or more will be when someone else cashes in the parimutal pool on my dime.
Monmouth Guy,
I don\'t mean to be a jerk, but it amazes me sometimes what people see when they watch a race.
You saw Upstart beat by the distance today? BC Mile and Cigar Mile?
The horse was done by 7 furlongs today, showing almost no run. Sat in the pocket comfortably off the pace, which wasn\'t vicious, made a mini-run into the turn for about 10 steps, then got passed by a VERY MEDIOCRE PLODDER - keen ice.
The horse that ran today just wasn\'t good. Not the same horse he was late last year into early this year.
Maybe he needed the race. But it wasn\'t the distance.
Rob
Keen Ice went into yesterdays race with a very light work schedule.
Gaps between works and his last one came two weeks out.
Horse is becoming more than a mediocre plodder.
Big
Not sure what he is becoming, but right now, keen ice is a mediocre plodder.
Sucking up for second behind a horse geared down for more than an eighth of a mile, having passed a couple horses who stopped running after about 7/8ths of a mile, is about the definition of plodder.
Good luck with him anywhere against any kind of competition.
Rob
Rob,
Keen Ice not my kind of horse either but he is on the improve,a new top yesterday. Ran about as well as Fraud-sted in the Belmont and made an honest run late over the geared down AP and the tired Upstart.
An improving slug.
Mike
Mike
I hear u. In dirt races I seldom bet horses that can\'t put themselves in the race at all. Dropping back to last and hoping for meltdowns not a great betting strategy.
I guess he could suck up in travers at 1 1/4 miles, for a piece.
Just not with my money...
Rob
Agree.....that was a nice effort on that surface.
We\'ll see how it shakes out but by the Haskell, Keen Ice may even be the one to do it. The Grinch to Steal Christmas.
That makes it 3 races in a row were a certain horse stopped running.
I\'m guessing you didn\'t have Victory Gallop too often.
The key with those horses is not to lose too much ground. KI did in the Belmont, VG did in the Derby and Travers. Not so in the Belmont, Foster and Whitney.
Presumably you\'re not talking about Upstart, since his third back was the Florida Derby, at 1 1/8th, and he ran a negative 2, as a March 3yo.
You know this is the Thoro-Graph board, right?
TGJB
No, i didn\'t have victory Gallup. But I love the example. The ride Stevens gave him in the belmont was maybe the best ride in a big spot I have ever seen. I would prefer not to make bets that require that to win. Similarly, I believe coronado\'s quest was maybe not as good as victory Gallup, but he beat him in the Haskell and the travers because he was more tactical.
There are no rules in this game. But I spent my first few years using sheets to futilely bet horses with ground loss loaded figures in dirt races. Horrendous results. Not as bad on turf.
I think there are two problems with betting them. First off, horses with no rating gear are often destined to lose ground. Second, those big flashy \"just miss\" closes draw attention at the windows and u often don\'t get properly compensated for betting them.
Doesn\'t mean the fast TG figure isn\'t correct. But for me, tough to bet those kinds.
We all use the product a bit differently.
Rob
Agree with some of that, but between the Race Shapes and knowledge of the jocks and trainers it\'s possible to deal with much of it (Clement gives instructions to save ground, etc.).
My other comment is that I think you said you started with Ragozin, Miff can tell you about ground loss and their figures. Yes, you will go broke betting horses that got big figures due to wide trips on their figures-- and if they raced wide on a day there was a dead rail you are absolutely screwed, the next few times the horse shows up.
Ring-- by the way, VG drew the outside or one post from the outside in all three TC races AND the Travers too, I think. Size of field, post and race shape are all considerations in handicapping closer\'s chances.
There\'s probably no-one but me who remembers this, but VG\'s Derby was the one where Chris Lincoln screwed up the draw and they did a do-over. Moved us out about 4 posts, Real Quiet in about 3.