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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: shanahan on June 29, 2015, 03:52:14 PM

Title: Rudy rod
Post by: shanahan on June 29, 2015, 03:52:14 PM
When he enters, do you pass the race, or include in exotics?
Title: Re: Rudy rod
Post by: Topcat on June 30, 2015, 06:12:23 AM
shanahan Wrote:
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> When he enters, do you pass the race, or include
> in exotics?


Do love tossing him when he\'s going bad.   Lemmings still march over the cliff.
Title: Re: Rudy rod
Post by: miff on June 30, 2015, 06:34:01 AM
Rudy winning at 15% this year.What am I missing?
Title: Re: Rudy rod
Post by: richiebee on June 30, 2015, 08:11:45 AM
miff Wrote:
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> Rudy winning at 15% this year.What am I missing?


and he would be very happy with a 15% strike rate at the Spa.

Jake and Rudy show does not typically play well upstate.
Title: Re: Rudy rod
Post by: jbelfior on July 01, 2015, 06:51:52 AM
Anyone want to comment on why they think that is? I think their horses hate the fresh mountain air.

Good Luck,
Joe B.
Title: Re: Rudy rod
Post by: miff on July 01, 2015, 07:36:39 AM
Joe,


Jacobson/Rudy mo pretty straight forward. They beat up on the Little Sisters Of The Poor during the garbage quality NYRA winter inner track meet(Jacobson more so as he runs them a class or two lower than where they belong) With the exception of a horse here or there, Jacobson is a claiming trainer(claim, tap, inject, win drop, turn over the stock)Wonder what their respective win % is from April thru Oct vs the rest of the year.

Rudy has more quality last two years thanks to Mike Dubb,mainly.Rudy also races them hot and runs close to the edge(note his positives for class 3,4,5 stuff)

Nobody can deal with TAP,Chad Brown and the overall quality at the SPA.Many top outfits point for the SPA and are usually loaded. Even the ship in claimers are tougher than the usual NY winter garbage and they card less of that level.

For years(Kenny Noe\'s days) it was the rule that you did NOT bring your \"stuff\" to the SPA meet or else, today who knows.

Good Luck
Mike
Title: Re: Rudy rod
Post by: jbelfior on July 01, 2015, 09:15:59 AM
Miff:

For years(Kenny Noe\'s days) it was the rule that you did NOT bring your \"stuff\" to the SPA meet or else, today who knows.

I think that still holds true today. Good point about the quality of SPA racing overwhelming the cheats. Interesting as well that none of these move up guys train or have any success on the lawn.

Good Luck,
Joe B.
Title: Re: Rudy rod
Post by: ruthlessman on July 01, 2015, 10:14:06 AM
Do you have an idea as to why?
Title: Re: Rudy rod
Post by: TGJB on July 01, 2015, 10:59:53 AM
First of all, failing to run as fast (figures) as downstate has nothing to do with the level of the competition or quality of stock.

Last year for whatever reason the boys were quiet (as usual at Saratoga) until the last week of the meet, when for some reason Condo Commander and others started running big numbers. It will be interesting (and important) to watch what happens from Day One this year.

Conversation at the sales last year between me and a certain on-air talent:

Me: \"Jacobson is not using anything\".

Her: (Skeptically) \"Are you SURE\"?

Me: \"I mean up here\".

Her: \"Oh. Yeah\".
Title: Re: Rudy rod
Post by: SoCalMan2 on July 01, 2015, 11:18:10 AM
TGJB Wrote:
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> Last year for whatever reason the boys were quiet
> (as usual at Saratoga) until the last week of the
> meet, when for some reason Condo Commander and
> others started running big numbers. It will be
> interesting (and important) to watch what happens
> from Day One this year.
>
Was the last week in September or August?  Would seem to me that if people (responsible for higher level of monitoring/testing) went home early (one month lease is up on Aug 31 perhaps why) that could explain why things changed for a last week compared to the rest of the meet.
Title: Re: Rudy rod
Post by: miff on July 01, 2015, 11:19:54 AM
Jacobson 2-43 at NYRA since late May
Title: Re: Rudy rod
Post by: Agastache on July 01, 2015, 11:21:50 AM
Did Jacobsen lose his top client, as well? The Drawing Away Stable moved to Navarro, correct? Perhaps, this contributes to the poor record.
Title: Re: Rudy rod
Post by: TGJB on July 01, 2015, 11:51:42 AM
Yeah, exactly. One of the biggest tipoffs is the guys who run very hot and very cold. Another is the tote board.

Salutos return and next one out of town, skipping an obvious spot Saturday at home with what looks like a short field.
Title: Re: Rudy rod
Post by: miff on July 01, 2015, 11:51:47 AM
NY cards 50% turf races from May thru Nov,Jacobson, Rudy to a lesser extent, usually do not have too many grass horses.

Beg to differ that running against faster quality stock has nothing to do with the strike rate/tops of any trainer
Title: Re: Rudy rod
Post by: TGJB on July 01, 2015, 12:07:20 PM
Strike rate and numbers they run are entirely different issues.

There have been very few move-up guys who have been able to get the same results on grass, for whatever reason.
Title: Re: Rudy rod
Post by: magicnight on July 01, 2015, 12:24:01 PM
TGJB Wrote:
 
> There have been very few move-up guys who have
> been able to get the same results on grass, for
> whatever reason.

Understand there is no verifiable answer here, but isn\'t the simplest/most-obvious one that it is the surface and not the guys?

From the figures you know that the turf horses are more likely to run their numbers, yes? Less \"ouchy\" surface?
Title: Re: Rudy rod
Post by: richiebee on July 01, 2015, 12:28:53 PM
Also, Saratoga has a higher dose of 2YO racing than any other NY venue.

Juveniles not a strong point for RR, which could be a function of owners not
giving him many to work with.
Title: Re: Rudy rod
Post by: Tavasco on July 01, 2015, 05:15:11 PM
miff Wrote:
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> Jacobson 2-43 at NYRA since late May

In keeping with DJ\'s strategy of overwhelming lesser competition he entered Classic Salsa fresh off a 40K Claiming win @ Bel on Jun 18 in a 31K Alw race @ Pen today. He won easily as the 4/5 favorite. At least he is transparent not so much with RR.

This may be a lucrative new strategy of his, shipping to challenge lesser vs dropping in claiming level. Expenses increase but if he sets a winning precedent, he may end up selling some horses he no longer wants. He is innovative.