Agree Tencendour is the likely winner, divining Rod second, and whoever you wish for third....per thorough pattern it\'s not close , these two are way ahead of others if you figure in the Delacour last 90.
TG, was I somehow banned for just asking if there was a ROTW? Wasted a race as I paid for this one yesterday...
Tencendur? To Win? To Finish? To Compete?
Isn\'t he the horse that jumped up 4 pts in the Wood for a cumulative 9 pts of 3 y/o development in 90 days then bounced only 15 points in the Kentucky Derby.
Now the ROTW analysis says on his best he is fastest in the field. Well he just ran his worst six weeks ago and it is not reasonable to me that he will just bounce back to a competitive performance. Then to compound the situation with a sloppy track. My contention being off tracks accentuate a horses condition.
Wow and @ 8/1 morning line. I appreciate the logic that the fastest horse is most likely to win. The magnitude of the bounce can be discounted because it was the Derby and his effort was a non effort. So two and 1/2 months to recover from from the Wood and hoping he\'s back to the horse he was then and if he is and none of the others improve voila! ROTW\'s chosen to educate I read recently. Interesting read even estimating a 20% win probability he\'s an overlay
I don\'t love the race yet surprisingly I do agree with the analysis he offers the most maybe the only value on the m/l.
If it\'s sloppy Far Right ran a 3pt new top at the time on wet at Oaklawn.
There might be enough pace cutting back to 8.5f\'s with a fresh Whiskey Ticket sent from the inside and Mr Z going from the outside for him to run at.
Playing him to improve a couple lengths or so with the seven weeks rest.
Saving with Divining Rod and the ROTW choice who seems like an all or nothing type.
Tavasco Wrote:
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> I don\'t love the race yet surprisingly I do agree
> with the analysis he offers the most maybe the
> only value on the m/l.
IMO $9 or $10 is pretty generous for the most obvious
horse in the race, Divining Rod.
Pretty hefty purse for such a suspect field.
I guess at 8-1, I can\'t strongly disagree with Tencendur being value, but Frosted has come back and ran an OK Derby and an OK Belmont. I, for one, am starting to question the negative 2 he got in the wood, which would also make Tencendur not as fast in this race. even if I believe the Tencendur figure, one could take it as aberrational.
Divining Rod has run very well this year. I believe his Preakness was even a bit better than the figure suggests. He made a menacing move at the Triple Crown winner around the turn and for a brief second looked like he would challenge. Pharaoh broke his heart and scooted away, and then the longshot sucked for second, but I think Divining Rod ran a race that beats this group.
Very hard for me to guesstimate at \"off odds\" here, especially if it rains. But if Rod isn\'t the favorite and is 4-1ish, he looks like a standout play to me.
Good luck,
Rob
Tencendur at an 8/1 ML as the only runner in negative territory is tempting. That effort may have been an once in a lifetime thing though, he was 40/1 in that race, Daredevil failed to show up, and El Kabier ran his usual race. I\'m using him in the exactas though, the price is right.
Mr. Z seems interesting here. Has speed and a minor weight shift on the deep closer Far Right. He was also within eight of the triple crown winner on a fast track with a 1w4w trip. Divining Rod was eight behind AP in the mud with a 3w1w trip.
Win 8
Exacta Box 8/1,2,4,5,6
We have 3 horses below 5/1, and you can make a case for any of them. The 8/1 shot ran a huge number then backed up big time in the Derby. Not so sure he runs back or close to it.
Divining Rod has a solid enough pattern for me, with a gun to my head he gets my win money. Tote board will be interesting.
I can see the logic with the 8/1, just don\'t think he runs close to the big number. If he stays around 8/1 he can help the verticals.
Good luck to those that stick their nose into this race.
What a difference a few hours makes.
With 6 min to go track listed as fast. Tecendur down to 9/2, DR down to 5/2, the Favorite War Story @ 2/1? Baffert @ 5/2.
Far Right doesn\'t look so far out @ 7/1.
Coronado98 Wrote:
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>
> Mr. Z seems interesting here. Has speed and a
> minor weight shift on the deep closer Far Right.
> He was also within eight of the triple crown
> winner on a fast track with a 1w4w trip. Diving
> Rod was eight behind AP in the mud with a 3w1w
> trip.
> Win 8
> Exacta Box 8/1,2,4,5,6
Good call.
richiebee Wrote:
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> Coronado98 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
>
> >
> > Mr. Z seems interesting here. Has speed and a
> > minor weight shift on the deep closer Far Right.
>
> > He was also within eight of the triple crown
> > winner on a fast track with a 1w4w trip.
> Diving
> > Rod was eight behind AP in the mud with a 3w1w
> > trip.
>
>
>
> > Win 8
> > Exacta Box 8/1,2,4,5,6
>
> Good call.
Well done indeed.
Tote board made Mr Z the play, if you agreed with the ROTW analysis. Gotta give some credit there too. Analysis nailed the exacta, and at the price the win too.
The top 3 finishers ran one heck of a race.
Great race and great ride by Bravo, made the front but stayed off the rail which didn\'t look like the place to be at TDN today.
I agree and (to my eye) he disrupted Franco and Tencendur\'s rhythm both times that one tried to range up next to Mr. Z.
Again, fail for me to be objective. I\'ve seen Mr. Z do his late fade so many times now I\'m conditioned to expect it. Toss in four tough races in a short period (a pattern that has been touted as a bet against). Just when ya give up on a horse like Mr. Z whack!
D Wayne what an amazing throwback. Good for Calumet too. Worthy ROTW selection IMO. But is the Red headed silicon sister really necessary to the U.S. Open coverage?
They like that distance. It\'s as important as anything else.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Indeed. Richie - did you think he was fresh enough, understood he races frequently, or just better in spite of the many races than the others?
I tossed him thinking he was tired of it and needed some rest.
Interesting 93 Beyer for Ohio Derby with 3 horses on wire.....slowwwww!
Shanno:
Didn\'t bet the race, just wanted to give at tip of the (Cardinal) cap to
Coronado, and as P-Dub mentioned, the ROTW gave out the cold exacta box.
Looks like D Wayne made the right move not prepping Mr Z for this in the Belmont
Stakes...
Now that DWL has seen what level \"Z\" is competitive at, can there be any doubt
that this guy runs in both the Jim Dandy AND the Travers?
Richiebee,
Please don\'t underestimate the man. I\'m fairly certain he might take a bit more ambitious route and run Z on 8/1 for the Jim Dandy and then ship to Monmouth immediately after the race to run in the Haskell on 8/2.
How about a stop in between at Mountaineer for the West Virgina Derby?!?!
Good Luck,
Joe B.
For anyone playing the ROTW, here\'s what they figure to go off at based on the Will Pays:
1. 69-1 Batti Man
2. 9-1 Hard Aces
3. 86-1 Poshsky
4. 17-1 Motown Men
5. 26-1 Majestic City
6. 3-1 Hoppertunity
7. 25-1 Big Cazanova
8. 7/2 Moreno
9. 8/5 Catch A Flight
10. 42-1 Lideris
11. 7-1 Finnegans Wake