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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: jerry on June 13, 2015, 07:25:20 AM

Title: Poker
Post by: jerry on June 13, 2015, 07:25:20 AM
Tough spot for Vyjack\'s turf debut. What does Mott know?
Title: Re: Poker
Post by: P-Dub on June 13, 2015, 10:55:53 AM
Vyjack has a solid chance to hit the board IMO.

Pretty much agree with analysis.  Of the 4 mentioned King Kreesa and All Included for the win, depending on odds. Probably KK.
Title: Re: Poker
Post by: drbillym on June 13, 2015, 12:05:29 PM
Well Mott worked him on the grass so I think he knows he can handle it.
Title: Re: Poker
Post by: P-Dub on June 13, 2015, 12:29:35 PM
Bang.

King Kreesa the clear play at 17/1, and Vyjack a nice close at 8/1 for the place.

Looks like $140 for a buck exacta, and the $36+ win mutuel.

Thanks again JB (or TGAB) for another great job. Love your turf numbers.
Title: Re: Poker
Post by: Michael D. on June 13, 2015, 12:35:10 PM
Paul, you\'re on fire with these picks. $36.80 for the win & $281 for the exacta. huge. keep it up.
Title: Re: Poker
Post by: PapaChach on June 13, 2015, 12:38:00 PM
Nice job. Wish I\'d gotten home a little sooner from grocery shopping!
Title: Re: Poker
Post by: P-Dub on June 13, 2015, 01:31:54 PM
Michael D. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Paul, you\'re on fire with these picks. $36.80 for
> the win & $281 for the exacta. huge. keep it up.

Thanks Michael.

The last 4 races on Belmont day I hit pretty good, this one was nice. I have loved the TG turf numbers (dirt is great too) since I first looked at them 25 years ago.

Missed the tri as that Chile horse got 3rd instead of All Included. Terrible decision to not include him. Dumb, just idiotic. Keyed KK on top.
Title: Oh damn
Post by: Deadrockstar on June 13, 2015, 03:18:25 PM
2 little league games, running to prepare for a birthday party and I sit down for ROTW at 4:30. Oh it\'s the 5th.

And the dam of Tepin 1st grass.
Title: Oh, and TGJB...
Post by: Deadrockstar on June 13, 2015, 03:26:28 PM
...did you happen to notice which product was better for the Poker?
Title: Re: Oh, and TGJB...
Post by: P-Dub on June 13, 2015, 03:53:56 PM
Deadrockstar Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> ...did you happen to notice which product was
> better for the Poker?


Only one guy said he was using the horse, but in typically convoluted fashion, no idea which horses the guy used with the winner.

The other geniuses whiffed completely.
Title: Re: Oh, and TGJB...
Post by: TGJB on June 13, 2015, 06:19:05 PM
I generally only see Ragozin for TC and BC so I don\'t know, but we came out looking pretty good. I DO know who came out looking better in the Fleur De Lis, because we\'re the only one who marks dead rails. Which was the whole thing with the winner-- without knowing that she looked to have no shot.
Title: Re: Oh, and TGJB...
Post by: Wrongly on June 14, 2015, 01:43:21 AM
Jerry

I use your numbers on any big day!  Can\'t tell you his much I loved Shook Up on Oaks day!  Tonight at Cd numbers were awesome!  I finished 7th in tourney but That was my fault!  Shame I didn\'t give more credence to 32/1 shot and timing!  Shane on me.  Could have used him.  Still the contest came down to a guy who won the first race on a DQ taking out fav on a 6 horse field.  900 to bet and he never hit another ticket.  Shit happens!  Broke even for 7th but just a bit bitter!
Title: Re: Oh, and TGJB...
Post by: Deadrockstar on June 14, 2015, 05:00:47 AM
You crushed. The Poker was their ROTW too.
Title: Re: Oh, and TGJB...
Post by: TGJB on June 14, 2015, 07:52:56 AM
Actually, it\'s their \"ROTW\". They won\'t put sheets up in advance for any race, or let people look even after the fact except if they find one that makes them look good. They are not fans of critical analysis. And some others (but only a few) don\'t seem to care. Battered horseplayer syndrome.
Title: Re: Poker
Post by: jbelfior on June 14, 2015, 05:13:39 PM
You\'re right. I didn\'t like KK but tough to pass up at 17-1. The final tool in the handicapper\'s tool box---the tote board.

Good Luck,
Joe B
Title: Re: Poker
Post by: P-Dub on June 14, 2015, 06:33:45 PM
jbelfior Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> You\'re right. I didn\'t like KK but tough to pass
> up at 17-1. The final tool in the handicapper\'s
> tool box---the tote board.
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B


Weight adjusted he had the best top in the race. If you play him to get back to it, not an unreasonable assumption, he was a solid play. Especially considering he would be at least DD on the tote.

That\'s my last comment on the Poker. Sweating out this Dubs game.