Re: Jack Milton
How often does a horse finish 9th in a field of 11 and still manage to run 1.5 to 4.5 points faster than all of the horses in front of him? Appeared to be a miler, considering how the trainer spotted him last year. Guess TAP was expecting a big run at 1 1/4, cause he didn\'t wait for the Poker at 1 mile this weekend.
Yeah, that was a great one. We\'ll see where he runs back and if he spots weight and draws outside again.
I just have to say my piece on this. This is not a great triple crown winner. If you look at all three races AP was an extremely fortunate horse. Beyer figs of 105,102.105. Below average. But in the derby Baffert assisted him with some very soft fractions and the other ding dongs couldn\'t tell how slow they were going so AP gets a win. Runs in monsoon conditions in the Preakness over a weak field and gets another win. Both of the first two races he closed very poorly. Then on a lightning fast track in the Belmont he gets loose on a disgustingly easy lead(again like the derby the worst fractions of the day) and wins easily with no pace or great challengers.
When I see AP on tv he doesn\'t look all that special looks wise. I have read his movement is something but I would have to see that in person. So many thoroughbreds can move great. Be at Keeneland early on any day in April or October and you will see some great movers. I tend to be more of a stride counter to determine running efficiency.
One thing I have learned is it seems the opposite always happens. \"This is a tremendous year for 3 year olds.\" Nope. \"Loads of speed in the Derby\". Nope.
\"the sharpest most intelligent jockeys are all here\". Nope.
In a way I cannot blame AP, he took what was given to him. But a lot was given to him. I am thrilled for the sport and it will do some good. I am appalled that Baffert won the triple crown (only Pletcher or Assmussen would have been worse.\"
I am also thankful for the TG figures on Belmont day. Helped me to a nice day especially with a 14-1 and a nice exacta. Very nice insight on the whole card.
Well only 329 days until the next derby. I hope to see some of you at Keeneland, Churchill, Belmont, or Aqueduct. Just a couple of days at Gulfstream for the FOY.
Quite the rant. No doubt things set up well for him but with the exception of Sunday Silence, Alysheba and Silver Charm I feel it has set up well for most horses that won the first two legs before failing in the Belmont. The horse makes his own luck.
I\'m no expert but even so I can appreciate how well he moves, especially in the mornings. Even his jogs look amazing and both his works post Preakness were beautiful. Plus I think he is a very intelligent horse the way he stands calmly and is so relaxed and friendly with people.
I hope he stays healthy and races again later this year. I don\'t think we\'ve seen his best yet
Pizza,
You said \"not a great TC winner\" which falls under the opinion category. Had you said AP wasn\'t that fast,a better discussion could be had.
Think AP has displayed greatness but is hardly freakishly fast, kinda like Zenyatta.
Mike
Come on Pizza, im no fan of this horse for whatever reason but he has earned his due..
When you are good you make what everybody thought was good seem average.
This horse could of won the Belmont by 12
Again, he went TG negative in all 3 Triple Crown races....This is the TG board.
Andy Beyer hasn\'t really been relevant in quite a while.
Triple Crown winner will do no good for the sport. The juice trainers, the
animal abusers, the empty grandstands, the slow rat statebreds are all still
with us.
Guess you had a problem with Baffert, who was very gracious with the press
while keeping his horse together. Would you rather have had Barclay Tagg, who
did interviews during Funny Cide\'s TC run which made you think someone had
stolen his prune juice?
The two colts who ran with him at CD had nothing left in the Preakness and were
nowhere to be found 3 weeks later.
Stride Counter? Was mentioned during the Belmont broadcast that AP had a longer
stride than Secretariat
Oh and by the way you forgot to take a potshot at Zayat. There\'s gotta be
something you hate him for.
Tough crowd around here. Didn\'t AP run 3 negative numbers in a row during the Triple Crown sequence? Frosted, Firing Line, Dortmund, etc., add Upstart, Texas Red, Far From Over all currently on sidelines...
Very good crop of 3 year olds if u ask me. And AP has beat them all. To my eye he\'s one of the best 3 year olds I have ever seen.
Man, I just remember looking at the sheets for the Juvy last year. This is anecdotal, but seems like there has NEVER been a faster crop.
I used this example other day with a nephew who is not old to enough to have seen a Triple Crown on these comparisons that are slamming AP.
Its like Jordan Speith winning The Masters at age 23 and something and the first thing some people say is \"Yah but he isn\'t as good as Jack Nicklaus\"
Doesn\'t matter, he is The Champ....
Andy Beyers speed figures are still a good tool to use. But that is all they are, a tool. Even Beyer says you always have to look at how a figure was earned. Same with TG. More incredible information than anything I have seen but some of the areas that are measured like weight and wind speed, ground loss etc.... are hard to always nail exactly. So you need to look at how fig was earned.
I have only been using Thorograph since like 2006 so I don\'t know how some of these negative figures compare. I will say that if American Pharoahs negative derby figure would place him in the top 10 percent of derby winners according to Thorograph well that is crazy. I was there. I saw the speed favoring track, I saw the claiming horses in the first run faster than the derby horses. I saw the slow, slow, derby fractions and the dawdling trip home.
And you are right when you say that the horses in the derby that ran with him in the Preakness had nothing. Exactly. He ran against nothing. Verve was second.
One thing the beyers will tell you is that horses that run loose on the lead can run their highest number (see bellamy road). AP was loose on the lead in the Preakness and the Belmont and ran a 102 Beyer and a 105 Beyer.
Let me close by saying this. If you just looked at last year. I would say without a doubt that AP WOULD NOT have beaten California Chrome. Without question.
Is there a Hall of Fame for assertions?
Pizza,
You seem to be going to extremes to \"scumbari\" yourself on here lately?
TG figures measure ability. Horses are bought, sold, claimed and millions of dollars are wagered daily based on these performance figures that you choose to use.
Are they the only handicapping factor involved in a wager; of course not and many patterns and reads are left up to individual interpretation.
Who did Cali Chrome beat in his failed TC bid?
Commanding Curve 2nd in the Derby is still eligible for an NW of 1 other than.
Bayern was eliminated in the Preakness completely, Ride on Curlin is an OK horse but nothing jumps out on his resume that screams great horse, Social Inclusion!!!!
He had his chance for history and failed, no excuses in spite of his \"dumb ass\" owners whines.
Is AP a great champion? We will probably never know, he is heads and shoulders much the best of his generation and the figures we all purchase tell us this is a way above average generation of 3 yr olds.
The only chance he will truly have to prove himself great will be to beat older horses in the BC classic.
Let\'s hope all get there at their best and see if he can withstand running with Bayern early and holding off Tonalist late?
The proof is simply in the pudding! He has done what no other 3 yr old has been able to in 37 years. Love him, hate him, whatever he is a champion and it was earned via competition.
Good luck,
Frank D.
Moose-- yeah, evidently its in cyberspace. I\'m trying to figure out whether this is a new thing or I just started noticing it.
pizza, agree with some of that actually, but I\'m not sure how you come up with the Chrome verdict. both were stumbling at the end of the Derby, without running all that fast early. I doubt either could have gone much faster. every speed figure I have seen has AP faster in that race. why do you think AP would have lost to Chrome going 10f at CD?
pizzalove Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Andy Beyers speed figures are still a good tool to
> use. But that is all they are, a tool. Even
> Beyer says you always have to look at how a figure
> was earned. Same with TG. More incredible
> information than anything I have seen but some of
> the areas that are measured like weight and wind
> speed, ground loss etc.... are hard to always nail
> exactly. So you need to look at how fig was
> earned.
This is at least the second time you have marginalized \"weight\" as a factor in
one of your posts. I will not make you review years of handicap racing, only
ask that you ask yourself why an apprentice, such as young Eric Cancel at
NYRA, bursts on the scene against stronger more experienced riders and enjoys
such success.
> I have only been using Thorograph since like 2006
> so I don\'t know how some of these negative figures
> compare. I will say that if American Pharoahs
> negative derby figure would place him in the top
> 10 percent of derby winners according to
> Thorograph well that is crazy. I was there. I
> saw the speed favoring track, I saw the claiming
> horses in the first run faster than the derby
> horses. I saw the slow, slow, derby fractions and
> the dawdling trip home.
You are mixing soup and nuts. Why don\'t you study the Archive and you will
probably be happy to find that many Derby winners were faster than AP. But I
thought we were talking about the Triple Crown, so while in the Archive answer
my question -- how many 3YOs put up a negative TG # in each of the three TC
races?
> And you are right when you say that the horses in
> the derby that ran with him in the Preakness had
> nothing. Exactly. He ran against nothing. Verve
> was second.
>
> One thing the beyers will tell you is that horses
> that run loose on the lead can run their highest
> number (see bellamy road). AP was loose on the
> lead in the Preakness and the Belmont and ran a
> 102 Beyer and a 105 Beyer.
I do not know if this is fact, assertion, opinion or some hybrid. The way I
have usually seen this stated is that a Beyer figure for a runner who was as
you say \"loose\" is somehow inflated, but talk is cheap and I have not seen the
definitive study on this, so I will continue to look at the Beyer for a
blowout winner with some skepticism.
> Let me close by saying this. If you just looked
> at last year. I would say without a doubt that AP
> WOULD NOT have beaten California Chrome. Without
> question.
This explains a LOT. A Chromie. A fan of the least qualified HOY in recent
history. There will always be a sucker for a flashy chestnut.
TVG threw up a graphic a few months ago saying that CalChrome was the first
Kentucky Derby winner since Secretariat to win a G1 turf race as a 3YO. This
really made the phlegm come up, because while Secretariat defeated two very
tough international fields of older horses (setting a course record at Belmont
for 12 furlongs which stood for decades), CC defeated an overmatched Canadian
3YO filly in a race where the graded status was very questionable (this was
the renamed resurfaced Hollywood Derby).
You\'re not going to find MANY Derby winners who got a better TG, either.
Yes, my mistake, for some reason negative 2 was stuck in my mind for AP\'s Derby.
Sorry forgot one fast one
This Century KY Derby:
BIG BROWN -43
AP -3
Barbaro -22
Orb -2
Street Sense -2
Others:
Chrome 0
Pizza, I\'m trying to understand your comment about Chrome would have beat AP no question.
If you go straight off the TG figures, AP would have dusted Chrome in last years Derby by many lengths. And based on everything we have seen thus far from both bodies of work for these two, if they race later this year, perhaps in the BC Classic, assuming both are healthy, 100% ready and on a neutral track, AP will dust him there and probably pretty easily. I base that mostly on the numbers they have run to date, which is really the only empirical form of measurement we have. And AP has more upside. He\'s only 3.
Lol I deserved that.
I did not check the archive. But if you say that a majority of horses that won the derby were faster than AP then that makes me feel way better about the TG derby fig for AP.
If you read ALL the posts you will see that as best as I can reckon only one
Derby winner was faster than AP in this century.