I\'m going to have to go into \"read only\" mode for awhile now. If I spend too much more time on this I will lose my edge by race time. The discussions so far have been great.
The draw and some second thought have tightened things up a bit for me.
Lion Heart, or, The Ghost of War Emblem? - most people who like this horse must imagine he won\'t get pressed too hard. I remember asking Jerry about the War Emblem Derby after the race and he said \"well there really wasn\'t that much early speed in the race.\" I don\'t think that\'s the case here, and this will be the main impact Smarty Jones will have. If Smarty/Elliot gets out of the gate and five horses are in front of them, they will have a collective heart attack. They are going to WING it, and they will be there with Lion Heart for a mile (at least). Others who press will not be TOO far off. It\'s a very different scenario than the War Emblem wire job. I\'m not sure the draw is that great either, because he will have to REALLY push early to clear the wall outside of him, although he will certainly save ground on that first turn.
So we have a horse that is going to try to wire THIS field off one hot route prep (I won\'t make too much of this, but it was a hot front-running prep on a track that may favor that kind of running style). The pace and coming in kind of light are two knocks against him. I\'m not crazy about Smith either. Overall, I see him more in the third spot in tris and I don\'t see him winning as much as I did earlier this week. They sure aren\'t prepping Smarty like he\'s going to rate, and now that he\'s outside, he\'s going to fire out of there after that $5 million babe. And there are others too...
Pollard\'s Vision - has one strike against him, Carson City. That\'s not bad, and may help if it comes up wet, no? Got the draw they wanted. Love Velazquez and I don\'t think there is a hotter combo now than JV/Pletcher. Fast enough and won\'t lose TOO much ground in the second flight (I hope). 20-1 or more? Total value.
Borrego - The more I look at the sheet, the more I think he may be the second big candidate to move up here (as well as Imperialism). Pace suits. Nice draw. Should have enough bottom. Was cutting into Smarty at Oaklawn rallying in mud (which I would think would favor speed a bit). The stretch is about 3-400 feet longer at Churchill (if I remember my American Racing Manual data). Has moved up in my estimation.
Tapit - Will now lose ground big time into that first turn (he\'s really not a stone closer), which means he\'s going to have to run out of his skin to win; remains a headache in the longer exotics (tris/supers). Really no bargain here at 8-1.
The Cliff\'s Edge - The low priced spoiler. Good draw. I think he will run. Even if he regresses a bit, he fits. Pace suits big time. Nice draw, and should save ground on the first turn (if you see Sellers wide on the first turn and you like him, start swearing, because barring a miracle he will be WIDE on the second turn too, and then he may have to pair the negative two to show). Have to make \'saver\' tickets with him.
Pro Prado - Maybe the draw isn\'t that bad for him. 50-1? Gotta use, though I lean against him a little in the top spot.
Quinton\'s Gold Rush - I\'m gonna take a wild guess and say that this draw is less than great for him. Is going to expend a lot of energy early or he\'s going to have to learn a new game out there.
Minister Eric and Wimbledon drew well. I don\'t like either of them on top, but if I throw in anything, these are two candidates. I\'d hate to see Day or Bailey save ground and suck up third at big prices and blow me out of the payday. This is what I\'ll be turning over a little now.
So Lion Heart moves down a peg, as does Quinton\'s Gold Rush. Pollard\'s Vision and Borrego move up and look like win/key bets. The Cliff\'s Edge can spoil the totebombs a little. Imperialism still looks nice at the price, as does Pro Prado. I can deal with four longshots without going too crazy.
Ladies and gentlemen, good night! HP
HP, good race scenario.
Agree with Lion Heart and QGR. LH has only 5 races lifetime with 2 this year. Not enough bottom for me. QGR off a new top and Bailey jumps off. So do I.
Don\'t have the same enthusiasm as you for Pollard. Can\'t get Carson City out of my mind but rain will help him. In his 3 wins he was first or second at the first call. Unless Pletcher gave him a crash course in rating, from post 17 that won\'t happen.
As stated in my previous posts I do like Borrego.
I too will throw in Minister Eric (but just a little) and Wimbledon just because of Day and Bailey although I watched Eric\'s last allowance win two weeks ago and was not impressed. Without Day I toss him. I will use Pro Prado more.
At 50-1 the Birdstone-Zito-Prado will getmy $2.
What to do with Cliff? Ran a real big race 3 weeks ago. Can he repeat? Will he need to in order to win?
S Jones will not be on or near the lead for godsake, he will be 4th threw 6th and he will roll pass everyone down the lane.
Got a real chuckle over Battaglia\'s 50-1 morning line on BIRDSTONE. This is a horse that won the GrI Champagne at 2, and was an early favorite for the Derby in February.
Now he\'s not one of my selections, but 50-1?? How does this guy keep his job?? Does Ol\' Mikey go out on a limb on Saturday and pick TCE over TAPIT and SMARTY JONES??
Good Luck,
Joe B.
HP wrote:
Lion Heart, or, The Ghost of War Emblem? - most people who like this horse must imagine he won\'t get pressed too hard.
I think its important to note War Emblem came into the Derby on two big margin victories, while Rion Hart comes in on two late folds. Which is not to say that uncontested speed cannot prevail. Before we compare Rion Hart to War Emblem lets see him actually win when he\'s able to relax on a run.
I remember asking Jerry about the War Emblem Derby after the race and he said \"well there really wasn\'t that much early speed in the race.\" I don\'t think that\'s the case here,
Theres tactical speed in this race. There is no suicidal speed and there was none in the Bluegrass either. Maybe the 20 horses on graded earnings eliminated the cheap speed.
and this will be the main impact Smarty Jones will have. If Smarty/Elliot gets out of the gate and five horses are in front of them, they will have a collective heart attack. They are going to WING it, and they will be there with Lion Heart for a mile (at least). Others who press will not be TOO far off. It\'s a very different scenario than the War Emblem wire job. I\'m not sure the draw is that great either, because he will have to REALLY push early to clear the wall outside of him, although he will certainly save ground on that first turn.
I\'m really not sure I see the wall of speed you seem to be projecting. I don\'t think that will be the case. I think you\'ve got about two maybe three horses that will dictate the early pace. If its slow I see Smarty rating just off one of the leaders and attempting to pick him up as they wheel for the stetch. Whether he\'s good enough to do it with that last eighth is the question. Bold Ruler wasn\'t able to. If it comes down to Rion and Smarty on equal terms with an eighth of mile to go the question is how fast have they run, how far back are the closers and between the two shy pedigree horses who has the advantage?
So we have a horse that is going to try to wire THIS field off one hot route prep (I won\'t make too much of this, but it was a hot front-running prep on a track that may favor that kind of running style). The pace and coming in kind of light are two knocks against him. I\'m not crazy about Smith either. Overall, I see him more in the third spot in tris and I don\'t see him winning as much as I did earlier this week. They sure aren\'t prepping Smarty like he\'s going to rate, and now that he\'s outside, he\'s going to fire out of there after that $5 million babe. And there are others too...
Smarty is not going to rate five lengths. He\'s gonna sit one length off the leader as he has done.
Pollard\'s Vision - has one strike against him, Carson City. That\'s not bad, and may help if it comes up wet, no? Got the draw they wanted. Love Velazquez and I don\'t think there is a hotter combo now than JV/Pletcher. Fast enough and won\'t lose TOO much ground in the second flight (I hope). 20-1 or more? Total value.
Pollard is solid on the side that counts. But he did lose to Wimbledon and was nosed by Borrego and came home in 25:96 last and must pick up 12 pounds.
Borrego - The more I look at the sheet, the more I think he may be the second big candidate to move up here (as well as Imperialism). Pace suits. Nice draw. Should have enough bottom. Was cutting into Smarty at Oaklawn rallying in mud (which I would think would favor speed a bit). The stretch is about 3-400 feet longer at Churchill (if I remember my American Racing Manual data). Has moved up in my estimation.
I like Borrego also, but he has voodoo to overcome. :) He\'s been Whammied. Keep in mind Borrego ran the dream trip along the rail as did Pro Prado and Borrego losses two lengths on weight.
Oaklawn\'s Stretch:
http://www.drf.com/trackinfo/oaklawn_park.html
Churchill Stretch: http://www.drf.com/trackinfo/churchill_downs.html
What you\'ll find is Churchill\'s stretch is 79.5 feet longer. But, the old lady has sharper turns.
Tapit - Will now lose ground big time into that first turn (he\'s really not a stone closer), which means he\'s going to have to run out of his skin to win; remains a headache in the longer exotics (tris/supers). Really no bargain here at 8-1.
The Cliff\'s Edge - The low priced spoiler. Good draw. I think he will run. Even if he regresses a bit, he fits. Pace suits big time. Nice draw, and should save ground on the first turn (if you see Sellers wide on the first turn and you like him, start swearing, because barring a miracle he will be WIDE on the second turn too, and then he may have to pair the negative two to show). Have to make \'saver\' tickets with him.
Cliff will be at the mercy of the trip and the pace and theres the bounce possibility. But if he does bounce, he\'ll prove later hes quality.
Pro Prado - Maybe the draw isn\'t that bad for him. 50-1? Gotta use, though I lean against him a little in the top spot.
Quinton\'s Gold Rush - I\'m gonna take a wild guess and say that this draw is less than great for him. Is going to expend a lot of energy early or he\'s going to have to learn a new game out there.
The draw bothers much less than the 10 pounds. He\'s a quick horse in a race without an abundance of speed. There is speed, but its not cheap gogo speed.
Minister Eric and Wimbledon drew well. I don\'t like either of them on top, but if I throw in anything, these are two candidates. I\'d hate to see Day or Bailey save ground and suck up third at big prices and blow me out of the payday. This is what I\'ll be turning over a little now.
So Lion Heart moves down a peg, as does Quinton\'s Gold Rush. Pollard\'s Vision and Borrego move up and look like win/key bets. The Cliff\'s Edge can spoil the totebombs a little. Imperialism still looks nice at the price, as does Pro Prado. I can deal with four longshots without going too crazy.
Ladies and gentlemen, good night! HP
Nicky was real high on Birdstone before the Fla Derby. He went so far as to invite a friend of mine to the Winners circle with him , i sure wish he had another race in him.
Ant, I was dying to bet Birdstone in his next race. That next race is the Derby unfortunately and he\'s picked a tough spot for his first run since Fountain of Youth day. But there was no way Secretariat was gonna win that Lanes End on the path Bailey steered Birdstone.
CtC--
As usual, very sharp analysis. BORREGO is interesting, however he\'s not keeping me up at night...something missing. I keep getting the feeling this is a solid 1 1/8 horse that won\'t punch as effectively going longer. Nice Thoro pattern, however. Could be a big one is coming. He certainly has the foundation.
As for SMARTY JONES, as i have mentioned before, there are no PURGES to pounce on in this one. He better be special if he\'s going to go by the speed, resist LH on the turn, then hold off whomever else comes afterward.
I agree with your assessment of TAPIT\'s chances from out there. He would have been better off from 5 -in. I visualize a nightmare trip. He\'ll be turning his head going down the stretch for the first time. Good Luck, Ramon.
Nice draw for RTF. He likes the outside and demonstrated winning from outside posts going 2 turns at GP and AQU, not the ideal posts at those 2 tracks. But Violette would have to pull a rabbitt out of the hat for this one.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
My over/under for the half mile is :46 2/5.
Good Luck,
Joe B.