...will people still try to criticize me for saying that AP can get whatever distance he wants because of how well he moves?
lol
Hopefully the post mortem on this triple crown will be that people need not to just look at the numbers on a page (i.e. only TG figures and patterns) or just the names on a page (i.e. only the pedigree) and understand that horses that run so efficiently and athletically can break the arbitrary rules creates by the people who only look at names and numbers on a page.
Patterns and pedigree don\'t mean too much when horses move like that
now, unfortunately, most horses don\'t move like that (in fact almost none do) but the ones that do aren\'t bound by the same rules as the others so actually looking up from the pieces of paper once in awhile can really make a difference.
Whaaa?
what does \"whaaa?\" mean?
Based on Saturday you should be just about the only one posting. You should have your own board!
HP
I don\'t even know where to start. Nobody I know used numbers on a page to tell you the horse couldn\'t get the distance. Nobody ONLY uses numbers on a page. There are no rules, and percentages (which there are) are not arbitrary. Also, you are using a PURELY anecdotal (as in one anecdote) incident to establish a relationship between the way a horse moves (in your opinion, by the way) and one result-- as you should know from your profession, correlation is not causation.
You know I love you, but that one was kind of unbelievable...
As a longtime user of the TG\"S and avid fan of the sport I commend and admire your early insight that AP was special and would likely be THE ONE. Congratulations on staking out a position and sticking to it. I would also like to thank you for sharing your backstretch insights with the Board, knowing that he was working well put Slumber on top of my list and couples with great analysis from our host and other posters on this board, especially M. Jellish\'s analysis on MAT. made for an even more special culmination to a memorable triple crown run. I am old enough that I sometimes wondered if I would ever see another triple crown winner. Let\'s hope he stays sound and will highlight a memorable Classic in November. Thanks to all posters on the best Board (and best product) in the business. tony
ok then, I guess I got my answer as to whether it was safe to start posting again!
I will go back into my shell now..lol
I typed up a whole response just now but I deleted it, it\'s not worth the argument.
I understand your post quite well. I also 100% agree with it..
TG is a tool much like Brisnet,Haskin,Bruno,and any other pieces of information that helps me win a race. However their is no better tool than my 2 eyes..
It\'s completely safe to post. Just remember words have meanings. A lot of people have been making assertions here and holding up one (or less) anecdotes as proof of something. And I don\'t like my product or me used as a straw man.
you know that I only use your figures. I don\'t even look at another set of data
but I do combine what I think is the best data (TG) with my own view of how a horse is doing and that\'s where I try to make my decisions
just because a horse supposedly bounced in the Preakness in which he won under wraps by 10, doesn\'t mean I am going to play him to continue to go backwards in the next race when he was training as well as I\'ve ever seen a horse train before the Belmont.
Needless to say, the best opportunities for me (i.e. the ones where I feel most confident taking big stands) are the ones where the TG data and how a horse is doing both tell the same story.
listen, we may never see a horse that moves this well again in our lifetime so this is all probably a mute point. Hope that\'s not the case but it could be.
Jim,
First off, great call on Slumber, as many have said.
Secondly, good call on AP. When u got off your month of April push on materiality, u got onto AP for all three legs and were 100% right.
Thirdly (here comes the rub), your point about \"how a horse moves\" violates to me what is the most important aspect of handicapping, and just because I was wrong about AP, doesn\'t make me wrong about that.
That aspect is that that there is no one rule or one way to handicap that is correct. TG figures help, pace analysis helps, trip handicapping helps, breeding helps, workouts help, and visual analysis helps. There are other things too.
You decided for this horse, your visual analysis of how how moves, over rode all other aspects and u want that to be a lesson learned. Good luck with that. It is the weakest of the angles I mentioned, it just so happened that u and others were right about this horse in this series of races.
You were right. And Others here were too. But I am not sure the lesson u point out is one to learn anything from.
Meant to be posted in a non confrontational way! Hope it came across that way.
Rob
Pretty sure Mr. C took into account that this colt was 2yo champion and just won a grade one by a zip code at ten cents on a dollar! bbb
I would disagree, and if JB agrees, send both of you a very interesting file of the day.
ringato3 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Jim,
>
> ...Good luck with that. It is the weakest of the angles I
> mentioned...
>
> ... But I am not sure the lesson u point out is one to learn
> anything from.
>
> Rob
Rob,
The man said is was a mute [sic] point. Not about you, not about teaching you a lesson, not about your irreproachable handicapping skills, nor about your assertions.
Jim,
Terrific posts. Insightful, gracious, and respectful. Makes it worthwhile to follow this board. Only a confident man can state his point without feeling threatened or repeatedly firing back when someone disagrees. Thanks.
I guess you\'re basing that on the great success 2yo champs have had in TC races.
I\'m really starting to wonder about this place.
It\'s about the class JB, it all comes down to class!
\"Patterns and pedigree don\'t mean too much when horses move like that\".... As JB said...whaaaa. I do agree this horse moves very athletically and unlike many horses but his pattern says it all. extremely solid and tight. Might be the best looking pattern I\'ve seen...given the Belmont # which I know is good.
Whether it\'s AP, Slumber or anyone else,it also helps if you bet horses that are fast enough to win. Very few people would look at Slumbers last race and know it was probably good enough to win the Manhattan-- except TG users. If they\'re not fast enough to win you can bet a lot of good movers that are working well without cashing.
I agree. I was confident that 1 1/4 was in his narrow window which is why I was hoping he didn\'t run at the snore.
But I don\'t end up betting him with the level of confidence that I did without knowing that his numbers stacked up pretty well with the rest of them.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
The big questions with Slumber were where he drew and would the rider make 114. Once the overweights came out he was a clear play to anyone who knew how to adjust the TG figures for the Manhattan for weight.
Day would have been even better if House Rules gets second. Untapable was leaning all over her in the lane and still got second.
Nice call in the seminar on Ut. She\'s not the same filly at 4.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
They could have made the Phipps part of the Pick 6 without bothering me at all.
JB, Slumber runs pretty much the same race every time, at least from a TG standpoint. Five of his last six figures equaled his lifetime best TG number which was exceeded perhaps two dozen times by the group he was facing.
No matter, the important factor here was the addition of blinkers. Neither Mott nor his current conditioner could get this one over the hump. First time ride by the boy in Kentucky, who apparently is very talented, probably suggested the shades, though the trainer took credit!
The word from JC on this ones work pushed many here, but I cannot locate a pattern read, speed fig, or anything else exclusive to the users.
As for what your forum\'s coming too... the best. Sure separating the wheat from the chafe (where many place me) is a chore but its better than using \"conditioning moves\" as a handicapping tool bbb
As I said, if you knew how to adjust for weight. The figure Slumber has been running regularly(including at CD) was better than 50/50 to win with a neutral trip once you realized he was getting 1 1/2 points from the high weights and almost a point from the horses who ran second and third. Weight adjusted he was extremely fast, if the kid made the weight.
Agreed. Slumber jumped out as a huge overlay at the weights on tg. The comments from JC on his work sealed the deal. Not that I hit the late pick four or pick 6 but all were in reach on TG. Every horse that came in was either an \"a\" or \"b\" in my pre-race assessment.....too bad my wagering structure stinks. But still a profitable day.
Please guys, it\'s \"moot\", really.
Re: distance and AP, I thought he was a winner and summoned Jim on a post after he went \"dark\" for back-up regarding pattern read based on a very tough Preakness number per Jerry. My only hesitation was his dam side distance shortcomings. The 3/4 and mile splits, a comfortable 1:13 2/5 and 1:37 4/5 -slower than his gallop out in the penultimate work.
Not to take anything away from AP but he had it easy, makes his own luck and had good luck with him in all 3 legs. I would have preferred to have seen him challenged and really tested. The last quarter faster than Secretariat was a function of pace or lack thereof. Da\'Tara was the last wire to wire winner due in no small part to a slow uncontested pace. Previous triple crown attempts had resulted in a full second faster 3/4 splits on average than non attempts but this years version projected against that:
http://www.superscreener.com/is-american-pharoah-in-the-belmont-win-zone/
Here is a raw time analysis from FiveThirtyEight for what it\'s worth:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/american-pharoahs-a-superhorse-but-hes-no-secretariat/
Tough to tell from the way the rack was playing. Quick times and lots of front runners.
RH,
Raw time analysis rather meaningless unless track speed was the same for all the races being compared, highly unlikely.
When Sec won the Belmont, the surface was cement and several track records were broken in that period.Fig makers at the time still had him very fast, from memory RAGS like TG neg-4.5 and Beyer like TG neg -11.The manner is which Sham was demolished verifies, to me, that Sec ran the fastest race ever(By sheet theory w/weight Dr. Fager had more than one race in that freak zone)
Not quite enough data from 40+ years ago to nail this down but the wow factor was evident back then when tracks were routinely glib/scraped on big days.Always recall very fast times on most big days in NY/Cali.
Mike