Races 2-5
The all stakes 8-11 is simply too tough, too competitive in the Met and Manhattan to spread with a TC winner or even Frosted as my only other conclusion. The risk of a large spread ticket does not seem worth the reward to me. I\'m in agreement with mjellish\'s pace scenario cooking the foundation lacking Materiality who ran the kind of number early in his 3 yr old season that could be a KO. I don\'t see a D\'tara or that type this year. Miff went to a Chinese restaurant and got a fortune cookie that stated its not the year of the slug!
Race 2:
Gold Shield & Wisecracker as Day of Fury\'s huge Baffert to Jacobson jump up had better not be repeated.
Race 3: I\'m between this one and the 13th as my favorites of the day, heck I may even stay for the Goo Goo Dolls I like the 13th that much! Competitive Edge inside Cinco Charlie may be an all time pressure cooker, I don\'t see JV taking back and going around him? Ready for Rye sits the pocket poised to pick up the pieces and Classy Class jumps forward off his pairs and the un fuego McLaughlin barn to pass by them all in the lane at a price. Boxing Rye and Classy in the exacta as well.
Race 4: The Covello as Power Alert is very tough to go past and will get 80% of my ticket solo. Unbridled\'s Note a price and back turf #\'s with Something Extra
because P-Dub told me even Mikey can\'t go DAT wide on one turn:) just kidding Paul. Exacta\'s and tries the same way.
Race 5:
Untapable is not the fastest, she spots weight and will be way over bet; I still can\'t toss her in the sequence and will use her with Wedding Toast.
The 13th:
I\'m in agreement with Silver Charms earlier assessment of Social Inclusion and Chad excels first off a long layoff and could not get it done with him, blinks on, another optional claimer vs a stake tells me he is still searching to straighten out this mishandled mess from last year. Matterhorn is poised for his 4 yr old break through back and forth with Ness and Navarro pressing with the Horn on top. The juice derby at the end of a mega pool day without the stakes testing standards oh my!
Good luck,
Frank D.
Frank D.
First off, good luck.
Secondly, gonna provide a few thoughts.
RAce 2 - Gonna use the two you mentioned, but gonna add Tiz Shea D. A bit slow, but some excuses. MAybe she gets a good trip this time.
RAce 3 - I wish the bet I could make is that you got the pace scenario wrong. No way Competitive Edge gets the front. Ready for Rye a rocket ship and draws inside. He will be the one to fight with Cinco Charlie early. Think the \"other pletcher\" will appreciate the cutback off a weird race in the Peter Pan. 3 deep again for me. CE, R for R and the \"other pletcher\".
Race 4 - Have to use Jim Covello\'s horse on number power, but would have to disagree with TGJB board assertion last week that JC is a standout here. At 5 furlongs I would agree. This is 20% further and there is other speed. Turf firmish but not the turf course from last week before the rain, which his horse would have loved. Aged is slow, but may trip out if speed over develops. Something extra is fast, likes the 6 furlongs and has as good a shot as JC\'s horse at twice the price? Spring to the sky has figures but has to work out a trip. With Castellano on board, that gives him a shot. Mosler as ML favorite is a bad ML. no shot the horse is favored from that post. Also won\'t use the horse from that slot. 4 deep.
Race 5. No untapable. Wedding Toast and Princees violoet.
Good luck
Rob
I bear an indeterminate amount of responsibility for the late p4 being tough. The racing office helped with updates of the probables for the seminar, which was crucial given the time element. In return asked which races were most wide open, since they had guaranteed minimums to hit with multis. I told them the Bklyn, Met, Manhattan, Acorn, not that they couldn\'t have figured it out themselves. Also asked for Met sheets, not sure how much they used them to weight race.
Frank,
Swing away, good luck, thread lightly early, could be ugly chalky.
Just got Welsch and was surprised he\'s very luke warm on Materiality and Frosted,shocking he has two slugs in front of them Verve and Keen Ice.
Mike
Frank
Love that 3rd race and it might be the kiss of death but I\'m with ya on Ready for Rye / Classy X.
Belmont hoping Materiality goes for lead and AP battles, that opens up box cars Frosted, Madefromlucky, Mubtaahij, Keen Ice tri box. Still think AP gets 2nd. So playing that lightly.
Most interesting race is Met Mile. Weights made this super tough key to Pk4, forced to spread. Costly ticket but if AP loses it might be monstrous. Willing to take that risk.
Saratoga not far off, making the trip for one weekend again. Best of luck to everyone!
Late pick 4;
Race 8)2/3/4/6/7/10
9)1/2/4/5/6
10)2/5/6/7/10
11)6/7
Good luck to all!
Patrick
What inquiring minds really want to know is are you going to be betting against AP like you have other triple crown hopefuls???
Seminar. Analysis. Both.
I purchased both and thought that was your stance. After reading some of your previous posts about past triple crown attempts, I was just curious if you were as excited to bet against this one as others. I love your products and your insight.
Very curious how your seminar does for the Belmont. After seeing the TVG Thorograph advertising (aired on HRTV so both TVG and HRTV viewers saw this I presume) as part of their Belmont Handicapping Proram and with the Triple Crown on the line, I\'m expecting huge numbers for you.
Well, with the minimum P4 at $0.50 you can spread as far as you like and get paid if AP loses.
Though I am curious whether AP will be 2/5 or 3/5 in multi-race bets esp. since so many sharpies are saying he finally may be the one. I\'m going to play him like he\'s any other horse in hopes i get my money back if he wins but score if he loses
Looked like about 4/5 based on doubles with several horses, not just the 2m winner.
It\'s selling well, not as well as the Derby. I think we get a lot of civilians who don\'t do their own handicapping for that one. Also, we\'re charging more.
We\'ll probably do it again. The time element is a bitch. With Derby and BC we know who\'s running well in advance. Also, there are several really competitive races where I couldn\'t just do 3-4 horses and get out.
Thanks for the hard work. Any thoughts on doing a seminar for the Belmont 4th of July program?
How many stakes?
I\'m not sure how many stakes they have that day. I believe it\'s 4 or 5. I\'m sure miff or ringato know. I believe that is the day that Lady Eli is running.
I bought the TG seminar and am going to (probably) roll largely with you.
I am attached to Tepin, however, who I crushed on Derby Day thru old fashioned DRF handicapping. Don\'t think he\'s as bouncy as you do
Oh, and if you follow Watchmaker on Twitter, you know how he ABC\'d the huge early P4 at Belmont last Saturday for $34. I cave-manned it for $48 and got the $3,500. I was at my kid\'s karate class and had Tepin money to bet.
Cause cavemen don\'t know their ABC\'s?
Nice analysis Frank, and yes. My guy Mikey has only 1/2 the chance of going wide sprinting as he would in a route. My thoughts on the early P4:
Race 2: The chalky Wisecracker a must use, even though he\'s 50/50 (according to Thoro-Pattern)to run his good one. If he does, he will be very tough. Good rest into this has me thinking he fires. Do we have to use Gold Shield?? I know, never toss the fastest number, but he did it at GP in his only start there. Does his pattern suggest he runs close to it? Pretty isolated for me. As Miff would say, its a pretty ground loaded figure. I\'m tossing him, as I think Wisecracker will be tough to beat. I\'m using Gridley Here, who unfortunately packs high weight. He can close in a race where there should be a decent pace to run at, and hopefully saves ground. 2nd 4yo start should improve and if he jumps to a new top can be right there. 15/1 ML offers value for the risk. Tiz Shea D gets a weight break and can move forward while Smart Transition has marched forward every start. I can\'t play them all, think these 2 get the minors.
Race 3: Ready For Rye, Two Weeks Off, and Classy Class. Rye is fastest and with the weight break I\'ll take the longer priced Pletcher instead of the 4/5 ML CE. Agree with your pace scenario and think CC has a solid chance of mowing them down late with a forward move/weight break. Tossing the 4/5 ML horse.
Race 4: Power Alert a must use, but there are a few very interesting ones at nice prices. You\'ve mentioned Unbridled\'s Note, that\'s one of them. Summation Time is a 4YO that broke thru first start this year. These horses can improve in their next start, he gets a nice weight break also (about a point), and it looks like he clearly prefers sprinting than routing. If he goes forward a couple points, combined with the weight break, he can be right there at a square price. Very similar sheet to Tepin, a horse I hit on Derby Day. Something Extra and Spring To The Sky are competitive, and it looks like underneath should be their ceiling. Those 2 can certainly spice up the verticals. Helwan is a foreign horse getting 1st Lasix. A bit slow on TG, 1st start 4YO can certainly jump forward. How many times have we seen slower Foreign horses get Lasix and outrun their previous numbers? I am not letting this one beat me. If Power Alert backs up just a bit off his last, then any of these horses mentioned can win. I think this is a spread race.
Race 5: Princess Violet, House Rules, and Wedding Toast. Untapable has run 2 races this year that are slower than every race she ran as a 3YO. That concerns me, and at 2/5 ML I\'m tossing. If she beats me, she beats me. The thing that bothers me a little about Wedding Toast is that she reacts to big races. Every negative has been followed by a 2 pt regression. If she does it again, both Princess Violet and House Rules can beat her.
$.50 P4: 2,5/1,4,6/1,5,6,7,8,11/2,3,5 = $54
I\'m looking for the last 2 races to produce prices, and even if I get just one, knocking out both odds on horses should yield a decent return. The ticket is bigger than I wanted, and I obviously need to get past the first race. If I can do that, I think I have a decent chance of getting some prices home the next 3 races.......
......and if I get knocked out, there\'s always the Pick 3.
Frank D, P-Dub, just being social after being so embarrassingly anti social earlier. I thought I had the Waltzing Matilda exacta and snapped when I realize I had been photo\'d out. Then saw the post.
Richiebee - I finally understand your reference to death & taxes like a rock fall on me inevitably.
Great 1st game in OAK P-Dub hope you were in the crowd? Maybe got some TV time?
Anyway, there is a horse #10 Channel Marker 4th Race who was making up ground on Power Alert in his last. (may have caught him @ 6F) I think it is interesting that he ships in for this with a trainer that doesn\'t ship much and succeeds less. But he seems to have never been better and boasts a 20/1 m/l. He\'ll come late has to get a trip so just suggesting y\'all take a second look at him c/b useful (like many) in a vertical.
Good Luck Guys on what should be a great day. Australia complete, Now I nap.
Nothing like a little humor in the morning. What a wonderful day for a walk in the park.
I was bitchin about having to be multilingual, now I have to learn the ABC\'s of caveman.
Thoughts on the rest of the card:
Race 6: I think Micromanage pops a good one and will be tough to beat. Tough heat to figure, you could make a case for several horses. Being part of an entry may knock the price down. Its a mile and a half, hard to take a smallish price here. Can see this being a spread race in horizontals. Can\'t really argue with the seminar picks either. I don\'t have a warm and fuzzy about this race, but Micro is the pick.
Race 7: Danzatrice is interesting here. Under the radar at Parx, connections somewhat low profile. First race this year a new top, followed by another forward move in her first route race last out. In a race with plenty of speed, her outside post should put her in a stalking position out of traffic. With the long run down the backstretch, if she doesn\'t lose too much ground she is just as fast as any in here. 15/1 ML a pretty square price. Probably my key, and Curalina another at 10/1ML that is just as fast too.
Race 8: The horse ridden by Mike Smith is a great price, gets weight, and is as fast as any in here. Has been a victim of wide trips, nothing would be sweeter than watching him give her a great trip from the 2 hole. If she saves some ground and wins.......well, I\'ll be sure to let you all know about it. Filimbi also a strong contender. I put these 2 ahead of the rest in an excellent betting race.
Race 9: Tough race, I\'ll use Private Zone and Bayern.
Race 10: Big Blue Kitten my key, using the seminar horses underneath. Legendary and Slumber on horizontals.
Race 11: Frosted.
.50P4: 2,3,4,6/1,7/5,6,7/6,8 = $24
Race 12: Depeche Chat and Taghleeb have solid numbers. Town Extension useable too. Tough to separate those 3, tote will point me somewhere. Will take a stand against the 9/5 Dubai horse. Right now, I\'ll go with TE.
Race 13: Green Gratto should gun from the rail. Speed of the speed, saves ground and is fast enough to win.
They\'re not very good at Rock, paper, scissors either.
I can tell you for a fact Smith will be instructed to save ground in the Just A Game. Which doesn\'t mean he will.
Belmont runner ups to get \"acknowledged\" was a silver ribbon, now a trophy of sorts.Imagine AP getting nosed and Zayat stands there to get trophy for being second.
....Frank, gotta agree and upgrade NYRA as the undisputed worst managed major venue
Agree that the late Pick 4 is tough sequence, but I\'m going to give it a shot. As much as I hate to say it, I am of the opinion that AP is going to win the Belmont. I want to play against him, but I don\'t think I\'ve seen a horse train this way and run this way during the triple crown sequence. And to me, he actually looks better now than he did before the Derby, which is really saying something.
So assuming a normal track, my plan is to single AP on the bottom of the Pick 4 and try to get 2 price horses home in the other 3 races. I won\'t have a single ticket that has more than AP and one other favorite on it. So if the favorites do well I won\'t.
I think Ball Dancing is a vulnerable favorite in the Just A Game as she\'s never run fast enough to win this compared to the rest of the field and has been getting outworked by Stephanie\'s Kitten in the AM. I also think Filimbi is a little off her game right now. Of the price horses, I love Sandiva\'s line. She\'s clearly running faster as a 4 year old, had a poor break in her last, but if she cycles back to her number 2 back she\'s going to be right there because she gets in light and should save ground.
The Met is one of my favorite races every year. As far as the favorites go, I\'m hoping Tonalist bounces here. If he doesn\'t he\'s going to be right there. Private Zone has obvious merits, but seems to have an on/off pattern of races. If he follows that pattern again it would be time for him to back up a few points here and I\'m hoping that he does. Interesting that after Bayern\'s last race, Baffert brought the colt back and worked him out of the gate 6F. Trainer obviously trying to push the right buttons on this one and he may fire his best now, but he\'s also going to have to run his best number ever to beat this field. Wicked strong seems to be sitting on a good one and probably gets ignored a bit in the betting. Who knows what Honor Code is going to do. To me he\'s better at 1 turn, so this race should be perfect for him. But Shug keeps saying he\'s a two turn horse. Both of the Kiaran runners will be long prices and he\'s getting tops out almost everything he puts out there right now.
The Manhattan is probably going to come down to trips. Twilight Eclipse certainly can win but I don\'t think he offers much value considering he often finds a way to take 2nd. Same thing for Finnegans Wake as far as value goes. He likes to win races but will probably have to run a new top to win. I like Big Blue Kitten in this spot a fair amount as he gets a few pounds from the top few and should be able to drop in behind the speed and save ground. He\'s also run a number that\'s fast enough to win this at least 4 times. Going to have some tickets with him singled. War Dancer may be sitting on a big one here and has to be used at the weights. Jack Milton is certainly fast enough to win here, but he will really have to run big to win from the 11 post unless he gets lucky and saves ground somehow, so you have to factor that into how much you use him. Of the price horses, there\'s been some talk on the board about General A-r od making his turf debut. He will be a decent price so I can\'t blame anyone for taking him. He\'s not really a front running type, but I think his best shot may be to try to wire the field. He\'s got some breeding support the move to the lawn and he\'s been holding his own with Jack Milton in the AM. And I agree that Slumber has a shot here if he gets lucky with the trip and fires his best as he gets in really light and has Ortiz on him.
In the Belmont, I plan to make a vertical play with AP singled on top and will need Frammento or Keen Ice to hit the board in order to cash. Will use them mostly with Frosted as everything Kiaran is sending out right now is running well and I\'m hearing the barn is very quietly confident about this guy today. And I\'m sticking my earlier statement that I don\'t like Mat in this spot.
Let\'s hope for the best.
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I bear an indeterminate amount of responsibility
> for the late p4 being tough. The racing office
> helped with updates of the probables for the
> seminar, which was crucial given the time element.
> In return asked which races were most wide open,
> since they had guaranteed minimums to hit with
> multis. I told them the Bklyn, Met, Manhattan,
> Acorn, not that they couldn\'t have figured it out
> themselves. Also asked for Met sheets, not sure
> how much they used them to weight race.
Looks like the early races have turned out a bit difficult too.
Nice prices, anyone get any of them??
Tavasco Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Anyway, there is a horse #10 Channel Marker 4th
> Race who was making up ground on Power Alert in
> his last. (may have caught him @ 6F) I think it is
> interesting that he ships in for this with a
> trainer that doesn\'t ship much and succeeds less.
> But he seems to have never been better and boasts
> a 20/1 m/l. He\'ll come late has to get a trip so
> just suggesting y\'all take a second look at him
> c/b useful (like many) in a vertical.
I do not know if this was an opinion or an assertion, but good call.
Channel Marker....but thats it. d\'oh. hopefully next 2 legs of P3 are decent...
Paul,
Few friends at Belmont, lines for ATM\'s already block long after 4 races.
Mike
Nice call on Channel Marker.
For the shoulda, woulda file. Keyed Tepin for 1st, 2nd and 3rd, only had the Mott horse in the 3 hole. And I only played him evenly w/3 others in the P4.
The 6 was a horse that was pointed out to us in the seminar......
Alas, I know
P-Dub Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Race 12: Depeche Chat and Taghleeb have solid
> numbers. Town Extension useable too. Tough to
> separate those 3, tote will point me somewhere.
> Will take a stand against the 9/5 Dubai horse.
> Right now, I\'ll go with TE.
>
> Race 13: Green Gratto should gun from the rail.
> Speed of the speed, saves ground and is fast
> enough to win.
Hit the late double and a nice win ticket on Green Gratto to end the day. Started slow, ended well.
Great job on the seminar JB, appreciate the efforts. I know they aren\'t easy to do and are time consuming, but they are extremely valuable and are worth every penny. Fantastic dialogue over the past several days on all of the races, Great community we have here. Slumber got me out of a hole, and the last 2 made for a nice day. Actually hit a P3 Race 5-7 and didn\'t know it until I noticed my account had an extra hundred in it.
Great day of racing, history made, cashed a few tickets, made a nice profit. Game 2 Dubs tomorrow. These days don\'t come around very often (40 years for Dubs, 37 for a TC), so I am savoring the moment.
Enjoy the rest of the weekend guys, What A Day!!!!