Tonalist is gonna get bet off that last figure, his affinity for Belmont Park and last year he won the Belmont. Even in this field I think he is blinking on the tote (9-5).
Not sure what to make of Wicked Strong, Honor Code and Bayern off their last. Maybe Wicked Strong was too close to the pace, maybe Honor Code doesn\'t want to go 2 turns, and maybe Bayern was spooked from a bad experience in the Derby Trial last year when he physically bore out real bad. But these are a lot of excuses for name horses who will take money!
So with all that I like Private Zone. I love the rail draw. He will be tough to displace from there. Has battled back from defeat in the Vosburgh from down there before. Has shown he can handle the Mile in the Cigar and at GP. I do think he will win the battle and probably lose the war so in that event I will be using him vertically on my tickets. Private Zone at 5-1 is Live!!!
Private Zone defines racetrack fast,is one dimensional speed as is Bay Of Plenty and Bayern. All wins for these 3 coming off wires,seems something has to give on the front end.
Could be the best race on the card.
Looks like a lot of early speed in the race with Bayern being the fastest.
Bayern blew up last year in the Woody. Does this set up for the stalker or does the speed hold? I like Bayern,Tonalist,Private Zone Box. Was looking at Kobe for a closer but with break problems and the quality of the speed here I don\'t see it..
Good Luck
I am going to disagree with the general assertion that the Met Mile is wide open. (it wasn\'t your assertion, so please no \"self pity\" type post needed, like \"feeling like Rich....) Have heard a bunch of handicappers say it is wide open.
I like to \"invent\" price horses and reasons to bet against short priced horses, but just don\'t see it in this race.
First off, there isn\'t a lot of speed in the race. Unusually so, for the Met Mile. Bayern and Private Zone are the only horses with gas and if one clears, they could be gone. Tonalist has won what 4 or 5 states at Belmont and is the fastest horse in the race? Loves track and is fast and his big figure came first time 4 year old, when he could be stronger and doesn\'t have to bounce.
Shocked if one of those 3 horses doesn\'t win. Yes, Bayern is slowish on TG, but his positional speed and ability to get good trips because of it make him strong here. Also, his race at 7 furlongs on this day last year was nothing short of awesome and the TG figure understates how good it was (because he set a wicked pace and saved ground).
Wicked Strong poor this year at a time he should be improving. Still a name horse, so a terrible underlay at 6-1. Bay of Plenty, at weights, technically looks like a fit here, but his figures were earned with softer paces against tin cans, not going to be able to get the same soft trip with these horses, so expecting a backward move. Honor Code could not have been worse last time and another \"name horse\", so he will be under his true value odds.
Shocked Silver if you get 5-1 on Private Zone. Think you will be lucky to get the 7-2 ML, he should be second choice.
Good luck, but I think there are WAY better races to hunt for prices.
Rob
Tonalist....\"doesn\'t have to bounce\" Now that\'s a new one.
Speed figure Players will play Private Zone, the general public we will see. There are a lot of strongly connected locals in here like Honor Code who retains Castellano and these types always get bet.
If someone can confirm this it would be interesting to know, but I believe Beyer originally gave the CD handicap a 95 and now the winner got a 100. For this kind of a horse that\'s still slow. Bayern was much much slower and now tomorrow he is live? He may break and send, but for how long?
Derby day was very tricky.Beyer changed PZ to a faster 100 fig than original 95 after rethinking than Dame Dorothy(same day/distance) could not have run that close in figs to PZ.
A mile for PZ stretches his distance comfort zone but if Bayern is as empty as last time out,PZ could clear off.
Well said Miff. That Humana distaff was same day/same distance/nearly same time with a 3 horse Filly blanket photo. (Judy the Beauty and one other mare)
TG got it right. Curious how Ragozin got it looking? Because if they have PZ backing up another reason he might not get hit hard at the windows....
Irad gives Tamarkuz the Swept Overboard trip and the saved ground plus weight break plus the FTL move up are enough to factor him in at double digit odds, maybe
Silver,
Trust me, Rags or any other date is not moving the board tomorrow,giant pools will break records imo.
Good Luck
Mike
Mike,
The \"read\" on Bayern key to race IMO. Baffert allegedly uncommitted about coming until he saw last workout.
Harrington claims Bayern very modest worker in general.
Baffert far from fool, feel he fires big. Also think he gets aggressive. Not a believer that Bay of Plenty is \"real\" gas. Think Garcia sends from gate to get OVER private zone. Not saying he will, but feel it could be plan. Last year\'s Woody Stephens seemed to have a ton of gas at the time and Bayern just went straight for the lead.
If Bayern not a dead piece, think he\'s dangerous, but also think that sets up things for Tonalist a bit, if he and PZ hook up, especially at 1 mile, where PZ needs a trip to win IMO. (not at 6 F or 7 F, his speed and guts are enough)
Rob
Difficult to make any rational case for Bayern here. Two turn animal in a very salty one turn heat.
Offlee Wild colt carried too much flesh in Churchill comeback and Baffert torn between waiting for the Foster and opting for this spot. In fairness, (BB feels colt dislikes CD surface) he could move forward and get a check. bbb
Agree this is a great race. PZ is so tough on the front, and I love watching him lay it down every time. But don\'t like the extra distance. At 5-1 he\'s getting some money, but tough at lower than that. Tonalist\'s last threw me completely. Didn\'t think he could get it going soon enough at a mile, but I\'m tossing here.
Bayern seems like a win or off the board play, and will show up on my tickets accordingly. If Tamarkuz is double digits, he will figure prominently. Been training well. Been here a while now. Certainly has the talent.
The bottom of the exotics looks crowded in this one. Pants on fire will add some value. Should have second in his last at 7F.
BBB
I forget , how many turns was the woody Stephens on this day at this track,
Last year.
His best race was 1 turn.
He caught biases for two of his three two turn wins.
Not saying he is a one turn specialist. But calling him a two turn horse not correct. Period.
Grade ones from 7f to 1 1/4.
Was ghostzepper a one or two turn horse. Similar credentials. Bayern not as fast.
Rob
AJ,
You don\'t like the distance or you don\'t like the distance against this particular field because he has won at the distance against a pretty good field in the Cigar...
I agree on Bayern and feel that he was just geared down at CD when they realized he didn\'t have it that day. I think he\'ll run tomorrow.
FYI: 24 races at 1m this meet at Belmont and 0 winners from post 8 and beyond. 6 wire to wire winners..
Rob,
The Woody Stephens has been run for some thirty years and is always seven panels.
As for Bayern\'s preferred trip his breeding and past performances offer a clue.
As for his chances tomorrow... slim!
bbb
Yes BBB,
A one turn mile well outside the scope of Bayern.
You are right.
Rob
The assertion guy is back!
Everything else aside, on a more relevant note, a Baffert that ran lousy Derby weekend already came back and ran big today. And two Pletchers ran lousy in stakes already today, though that bears more watching.
TGJB
Saw that too. Would want to see more with Pletcher. As your numbers showed and my eyes saw watching his first race, the uncle Vinnie was a horrendous even money shot. Ridden hard whole race at 1-5 in awful field first out.
Winner was tough take take at 5-2 though.
The TG \"6\" horse ran very mediocre. Clearly went backwards.
And hope the assertion thing wasn\'t meant for me. Try to support my views, right or wrong, with some facts!
Rob
Not you. We have two of them here. Every time I see one of these unsupported assertions I think of Ken Kesey. In Cuckoo\'s Nest there\'s a character in the ward who goes around making assertions, like \"The walnut is Mexico\".
I\'ve noticed that when Pletcher horses don\'t fire you see it two strides from the gate. That even money shot in the 4th was a perfect example.
heard baffert on radio yesterday on bayern, did not sound confident on him, said he usually needs a few to get going, toss for me