Looks like a live long shot to me. Plenty of turf pedigree on the female side and the last 2 figs were big. Can\'t over look Pletcher on grass at long odds.
Any Thoughts?
Biggest sucker horse on the card. Claim to fame is costing Commissioner the Belmont last year. Ironic that Pletcher has him now. Not for me, especially with that group.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Joe B
Horse is 20-1 ML. Silly statement to call him a sucker horse.
A sucker horse has to take money.
brucceleri
Give u a different view. He is a fast horse with turf breeding, trained by a sharp trainer. If he can run close to as fast on turf, he has a punchers chance. I don\'t like him, but I would never talk u off s 20-1 horse with figures. This is a salty field to try turf against but the trainer is. O fool and the confidence is a good sign. General quarters tried this move a few years back on a triple crown day and I think I used all horses but him and 1 other in that pick 4 because he couldn\'t win on turf. He did. Think it was at churchill on derby day.
Don\'t think he will be 20-1 though. More like 12-1.
Rob
Thanks for the response. TG speaking he\'s the co fastest horse in the race ( JM has run as fast). Pairing up neg # with 7 weeks since last. Gets in at 114 lbs. Darby Dan on the female side. 3 nice turf breezes. Gets JV. 20-1 morning line. Pletcher may not be the most popular trainer on this board but he knows how to spot them. I don\'t know if I would call him a sucker but there probably is worse 20-1 shots tomorrow to play. Just my 2 cents..
Only one chance @ first turf. If you get 20/1 why not? Good story telling potential. If yes whoopee, if no so what. Hard to find a 20/1 horse with no knocks. Realists note an accomplished field is a big hurdle. I don\'t think any of them have beaten him?
Rob:
Been burned by him too many times. Hope you have better luck with him than I did.
btw: way better turf trainers in there than the Toddster (e.g. Chad Brown, Bill Mott). Hey, I\'m thinking Wolfgang Figge may even be better.
God Luck,
Joe B.
Pletcher has pretty good numbers first time turf.
brucculeri Wrote:
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> Thanks for the response. TG speaking he\'s the co
> fastest horse in the race ( JM has run as fast).
> Pairing up neg # with 7 weeks since last. Gets in
> at 114 lbs. Darby Dan on the female side. 3 nice
> turf breezes. Gets JV. 20-1 morning line.
> Pletcher may not be the most popular trainer on
> this board but he knows how to spot them. I don\'t
> know if I would call him a sucker but there
> probably is worse 20-1 shots tomorrow to play.
> Just my 2 cents..
He seems to me definitely playable....the type of horse I would like to play to be in my exotics, but also don\'t want to be killed by if he misses.
I like the fact he broke his maiden on synthetic. The blinkers off is a mixed signal. He was without blinkers in his maiden breaker on synthetic, but he also got a bore in which they obviously thought they were addressing when he moved forward with blinkers on next out. However, it was his first out as a 2yo and 2yos do all sorts of screwy things when they don\'t get what is up, so the bore in may not have required addressing or was addressed just by experience not by the blinkers. Obviously, Pletcher thinks he is fixing something by going blinkers off, and he could be right or he could be creating a new issue.
On the turfiness, he sure seems like he should turf, but that doesn\'t guarantee he repeats his best figs on the surface. I feel like certain track\'s dirt is sort of turfy and Tampa is one of those, so the fact he could get a good figure shipping into Tampa (a tough place to ship into) is positive for what he will do on turf.
Another concern you need to keep in mind is distance. One way to look at this horse is that 10 panels is beyond his scope and he needs shorter distances. Unfortunately, in his only efforts beyong 9 panels, he had three straight excuses -- a horrendous ride by Rosario in the Derby, a terrible trip in the Preakness, and in the Belmont he was probably done in by a first 6 furlongs in under 1:13 (not to mention 3rd race in 5 weeks issues).
The light weight is nice, but you also have to wonder if any of that benefit is going to be given up by going wide the first turn.
Don\'t mean to be too negative here. The price is right on this horse. My best guess is he either runs well and then fades the last furlong or else he runs a fig very competitive with the best figs in the race and then it will depend on his trip compared to the other\'s trips (although he gets a weight advantage here).
Jerry:
What does that have to do with General A-Rod? The horse can\'t get the distance against this level. If he wins tomorrow, it\'s pretty simple-- I rip up my tickets.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
That one wasn\'t just an assertion, you gave a reason. See how easy that was?
I remember a horse named Prized in the Breeders Cup Turf. Wasn\'t he a first time turf
I think he was.
Ridden by one of my favorite jockeys Eddie D. Great ride that day.
I don\'t usually post, but I\'ll chime-in on this. Prized was trained by Neil Drysdale. It was an unbearably hot day at Gulfstream Park. I still remember the triple: Prized, Sierra Roberta, and Star Lift. I believe that Prized had previously beaten the great Sunday Silence in the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Santa Anita. So looooong ago and far away.
Good luck to all tomorrow,
pat
May have been the Swaps Stakes at Hollywood Park
Thanks P-Dub; I stand corrected. Going-off a poor memory. So loooong ago !!
pat
Lol...ok. I look forward to buying you that steak at Capital Grill if my \"assertion\" on Upstart is wrong.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
It\'s not about right or wrong. And re that one, since the horse was turned out when you made it and there are only 3 mile and 1/4 races he can run in, making that statement would be like taking a stand on one of the 250 Republicans seeking the nomination and saying he won\'t be president.
But in general, making an assertion alone is like a lawyer making an opening statement, then not making a case or presenting evidence. Who cares?
You could say he\'s not bred for it (Covello did), you could say you don\'t like the way he finishes (Miff did). I totally disagree, both on pedigree and because Upstart\'s best race was at the longest distance he tried. But that\'s fine-- they made the argument.
I hope he wins big time now. I am stuck with him on one small p-4. I like his chances and the tote is betting him down to 9:1.
Bill
Leamas57 Wrote:
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> I hope he wins big time now. I am stuck with him
> on one small p-4. I like his chances and the tote
> is betting him down to 9:1.
>
> Bill
Don\'t want to jinx you, but I like your chances. I want him too.
You didn\'t jinx me, I will learn to stay away from first turfers yet. Unless they are bred out the ___ for it, it\'s moth to the flame it seems for me. I saw what looked like some Dynaformer on the dam\'s side, so I bit.
L