It is amazing the frenzy the triple crown creates. I love it! I love the derby trail as well but nothing beats this. In my opinion, we are all over thinking this. As a sheet player, this is the single greatest betting opportunity of all. Let\'s put it in prospective. We have a horse that is likely to be 3-5 at post who is coming off a huge negative number in the derby with a visually impressive win in the Preakness despite a 2 point regression. Hello! That is why we get this information, is it not? That is what we are all here for, to have that competitive advantage in the betting pool, no? These opportunities come around few and far between. Now, if you are disputing the TG number, that is a different story all together. It is classic, 4 races in 8 weeks, a huge negative number,a slight regression, a new track, a marathon distance, a 3 yr old, The only place to go is backwards! This horse won\'t even hit the board let alone win the race. I think we want a TC so bad it is clouding our vision of what I believe is a home run. I will toss AP out of the number completely. I wish everyone the best of luck! Don\'t drink the cool-aide!
Another way to look at it is that the fastest horse is the favorite, the 2nd fastest horse is the second choice and the 3rd fastest horse is the third choice.
When betting with the TG the single best betting opportunity is getting the fastest horse as the 4th or 5th choice.
Toga,
Its Kool Aid, with K.
More statistical irrelevance shows that since 2006 there have been 23 horses that ran in the Preakness and the Belmont, all 23 lost the Belmont.
Also, no horse ever won the TC while racing for an owner that was a beverage distributor. Bob Lewis failed twice,AP\'s owner,Zayat, a beverage distributor..AP a stat toss!...play the game by stats, its ez.
Good Luck
Mike
I think the big K only applies to sheet theory. Which is a fantasy, that\'s why the TG Patterns all come out the same.
You wont want to believe this but ANY stat/pattern not directly related to say American Pharoah is completely irrelevant as to how he may or may not perform . The other runners which make up those stats/patterns are not he.
A- that\'s not my point, and B that could be said of every single horse in a pattern. They all have specific characteristics.
We\'re playing percentages here, at different odds, whatever the individual result is.
Not to mention the fastest horse coming in has won the race twice in the past 20 years.
No, but there were some invincibly fast horses in those groups too.