From looking at the past performances it would appear that Mat and AP are the two likely front runners in the race. AP is a confirmed front runner. He may not have the lead but he is going to be close. And it\'s hard to believe that Pletcher wouldn\'t send Mat in this spot.
So if you assume that to be true, how do you take Materiality to win that duel? Do you figure AP to bounce or not get the distance?
If not, if you think they will both run their race and have about the same chance of getting the distance, do you assume Mat is the better horse and will run on longer? That\'s a pretty tough pill for me to swallow.
I can really see playing this race assuming that if Mat tries to go with AP early the majority of the trip around he will likely get cooked. AP may get cooked as well and someone else passes them both, but I see Mat spitting out the bit first.
For me Mat is going to be a toss in this race.
Well, it might not have been intended in the Derby, but in that race Mat learned a little about how to eat dirt and pass horses.
Leamas
Frosted\'s Derby was much more impressive than Materiality\'s. Middle moved past him while very wide on the turn and still finished ahead of him despite Materiality being inside.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
MJellish,
Sure, I could see Materiality as a toss for anybody that likes AP. AP puts Materiality away up front and he fades out of the money, with suck up longshots underneath (or Frosted).
Very viable scenario.
I see Materiality just off AP and puttting him away on the turn. I strongly disagree with your assertion that they have the same chance to get the distance. Pedigrees are very different. Based on pedigrees, I would see Materiality as having the 1st or 2nd best (behind Dubai horse) and would see AP as having the 7th best or thereabouts. (all due respect to Mike\'s point about his previous route wins dispelling his distance limited dam side pedigree, I am a believer that milers can get the 1 1/4 if they are superior to their competition, but NOT the 1 1/2 and I think there is substantial track evidence to support that in the previous runnings of the Belmont)
Best,
Rob
Rob,
I didn\'t assert anything with regards to distance breeding or capabilities of either of these two colts. As far as I\'m concerned the only one bred to get the distance is Mubta. They don\'t breed them to get 1 1/2 in North America anymore. But I don\'t think based on breeding you should say that Mat is any likelier to get the distance than AP.
And what do you do with Frammento? He isn\'t \"bred\" to get the distance, but Zito has been saying all spring, since before the Bluegrass even, that this is a mile and half colt. Look at Da Tara\'s breeding. Did he look any likelier to get the distance than Frammento does?
Only assertion I made is that for me Mat is a toss in this spot. And I base that on tactical racing style. I don\'t like him at all. And I stand by that statement.
MJ
We will agree to disagree on Materiality and AP\'s breeding. I don\'t understand your position based on the female family for AP having been nothing but sprinters, but it is your position.
As for Frammento, I can\'t do anything with him. He is too slow.
I generally can\'t play horses that are non-competitive from a numbers perspective, at least on top.
There is a short list of fast horses here. AP, Frosted, Materiality. I tried to make a case for slower horses to move up, but other than very weak cases for the peter pan winner and Mubtahij, I can\'t really make a case.
As for Da Tara winning. When horses like that win, I lose. I accept that before the race, when I make the bet. I couldn\'t have D\'Tara with monopoly money. Sometimes we have aberrational results and I accept that and accept that I mostly lose when that happens.
As the first line of my post said, i can absolutely see the case for tossing Materiality. If I liked AP, and thought he would run another big race, I would toss Materiality based on tactics and the fact that AP would \"run him into the ground\".
But I Don\'t like AP in this spot, at this distance, with this spacing, with that breeding, so I will key Materiality and not toss him!
Good luck. Different opinions make this game.
Rob
I have been pondering this same issue for days. I conclude that Materiality believers envision him getting the lead with AP unable to get by and failing to hold position late.
This is predicated on the belief that the Florida Derby was knockout fast and Mat, as a lightly raced horse, will bounce back (from his troubled trip in KY) as well as get the distance. Further this viewpoint ignores pace (early & late) considerations. While maybe most important of all, they pooh pooh the doubters who say FL numbers only valid in FL races.
This gate to wire vision makes the expected price seem a gift!
This camp has diminishing numbers as more and more of them succumb to being run over by buses.
Exactly. That\'s why I believe that class, racing tactics, strategy, race preparation go more to determing the winner than pedigree.
Anyone impressed with the pedigree of Ruler On Ice, Commendable, D\'Tara, or Tabasco Cat?
Good Luck,
Joe B.
mjellish Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> From looking at the past performances it would
> appear that Mat and AP are the two likely front
> runners in the race. AP is a confirmed front
> runner. He may not have the lead but he is going
> to be close. And it\'s hard to believe that
> Pletcher wouldn\'t send Mat in this spot.
>
> So if you assume that to be true, how do you take
> Materiality to win that duel? Do you figure AP to
> bounce or not get the distance?
>
> If not, if you think they will both run their race
> and have about the same chance of getting the
> distance, do you assume Mat is the better horse
> and will run on longer? That\'s a pretty tough
> pill for me to swallow.
>
> I can really see playing this race assuming that
> if Mat tries to go with AP early the majority of
> the trip around he will likely get cooked. AP may
> get cooked as well and someone else passes them
> both, but I see Mat spitting out the bit first.
>
> For me Mat is going to be a toss in this race.
I would view the scenario you are looking at unfolding as not a lot different than the way the derby unfolded between AP and Firing Line. It was the only time AP has faced a real challenge and it was a stirring duel. AP required significant whip work to get there, Firing Line may have damaged his final position by never switching leads. I will note that Gary Stevens felt very confident that he could reverse the result. And so did a lot of other people, so the idea of a horse running with AP early and finishing him off in a duel is not such a crazy thought.
I see Materiality as running the same sort of race in the Belmont that Firing Line did in the Derby. Materiality handled a fairly tough stretch duel in the Florida Derby, so to my eye, he has been there and done it. Maybe Materiality does switch leads and AP needs to face a rerally? Maybe AP doesn\'t respond as well to the 32 strokes necessary in the Belmont as he did in the Derby (not as fresh, maybe thinking enough is enough). How does that help in your scenario?
My plan is to just enjoy this race and not be encumbered with any bets. However, one thing I will point out is that if AP dusts this field in the Belmont, where does that put Firing Line? As far as I can see, if that happens, AP will have a remarkable set of PPs and the only horse that ever really ran with him would be Firing Line. Firing Line could be something really special if we ever get a chance to see him. AS far as I can remember, he has yet to bounce.
With American Pharoah #5 & Materiality #8, the Materiality on the lead scenario takes a major hit. What I could see is Mubtaahij being sent from the rail, making him the 3rd pace horse. I don\'t see Materiality ahead of American Pharoah at any point in the race.
Neither do I, then again I\'m with MJellish and tossing him like an umsputin stone.
I was realty impressed by the \"class\" of those horses, though.
On paper both horses are equally as fast. Maybe this turns into a jockey\'s race in which case Johnny V has the edge..
Good luck
So was I Jerry. I had all 4 of them.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
You\'re a riot. On both counts.
Why a pass for Drossel-slug?
To your point about Da\'Tara, his dam sire traces back to stamina laden sire Ribot, through Hoist the Flag and Tom Rolfe. Pretty strong stuff on the bottom. He also has 1 pt. in his Professional wing.
When you \"had\" Ruler On Ice, what convinced you of his \"Class\"? Was it his third in the Sunland Derby, or second in the overnight stake the start before the Belmont?
That\'s rhetorical. Don\'t bother.
Jerry,
Valid points.
But for me, I only care about breeding if the horse has a chance in my view.
D\'Tara was winless in 11 starts after the Belmont and off the board in the stakes races he tried after the Belmont.
And had non-descript accomplishments before the Belmont.
If you had him, good call.
I will NEVER EVER hit a horse like that without the \"all button\" and I seldom use it.
Rob
I don\'t think D\'Tara was even included with the ALL button that year.
D\'Tara was going to be a pace factor after his sharp effort in the Pimlico race at a 1 1/16th.
Off of paired tops and if you didnt like Dutrow, Big Brown, or the obnoxious owner, D\'Tara wasn\'t impossible. There was 1 horse to beat that day---rest of the field was nothing.
Good Luck,
Joe B
Da\'Tara was Zito\'s rabbit for Anal Nakal!
That\'s not how I remember it. I had Dennis of Cork. I also had Stay Thirsty and Fly Down. All brutal loses.
This is a CRIMINAL case or redboarding............
Why would he send Mub? Mub sat off the pace in Dubai, on the rail. When he moved out, he had plenty. They did not go that fast over there early on from what I can tell, so he may not be best on the front.
Don\'t see the advantage in \"sending\" him unless that means to try to get away with the lead in soft fractions and that won\'t happen. I think he trys to stay within a few lengths of the leaders (4-5?) until the top of the stretch. Because I do not know what to do with Frosted, I will use MUB, MAT, and AP boxed for the exacta.
He might send Mub to keep him out of trouble. Then he has to decide whether to let American Pharoah & Materiality go by & sit 3rd or stay and occupy the rail. I can\'t see mub worse than 3rd at the 1st turn.
There are 8 horses in the race on a track with wide sweeping turns and plenty of space.
Of all the problems Mubtahij will likely have Saturday, keeping him out of trouble early is pretty far down the list.
You can\'t see him worse than 3rd early.
It would take an act of God to have him higher than 3rd early.
Rob
Any Sarava Stories?
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Why a pass for Drossel-slug?
Since his first crop will appear this year, just yesterday I was wondering about their name prospects. Not a bad start.
Of course his BC Classic win taints him quite a bit.
The BC Classic win was luckier than the Belmont win.
Quite possibly the luckiest horse to ever run.
The day he won the Belmont was the ONLY day in my memory over the last 20 years when on Belmont Stakes day, the Belmont main surface was incredibly tiring and deeply favoring closers. Usually on big days, you get a fair to fast and slightly speed favoring track at Belmont.
The BC Classic he won was when the Churchill Downs \"Keystone cops\", AKA the track crew, had an extremely dead rail and disgusting surface for the second year in a row on Breeders Cup day - inexcusable. Not to mention they did the same thing for the derby between those two BC days. Poor Game on Dude, on the rail, put away Uncle mo, then two others, while down on the inside, then got passed late by Drosselmeyer.
sometimes it is better to be lucky than good. haven\'t I heard that somewhere....
Rob
Had the gaul to not only be slow but phony wide to boot...despicable.
Only one Sarava story. The late Bill Handleman, Asbury Park Press columnist, Monmouth railbird, 1995 winner of $100,000 Penn National World Series of Handicapping, wrote a brilliant column the morning of the 2002 Belmont in which he gave Sarava as his pick...no redboarding, its memorialized forever in Microfiche, and I cashed the exacta that day b/c of Bill.
Bill was a friend and a great man who loved the Belmont Stakes as much as any other race. He lived long enough to see Drosselmeyer\'s 2010 victory before passing away on June 9, 2010. Bill often wondered if he would live long enough to see another Triple Crown winner. He didn\'t but I\'m sure he will be cheering AP down the long Belmont stretch on Sunday.
Cheers Bill.
There is one great Sarava Belmont story, but I\'ll let the principal tell it hear. HP?
SoCalMan2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> mjellish Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > From looking at the past performances it would
> > appear that Mat and AP are the two likely front
> > runners in the race. AP is a confirmed front
> > runner. He may not have the lead but he is
> going
> > to be close. And it\'s hard to believe that
> > Pletcher wouldn\'t send Mat in this spot.
> >
> > So if you assume that to be true, how do you
> take
> > Materiality to win that duel? Do you figure AP
> to
> > bounce or not get the distance?
> >
> > If not, if you think they will both run their
> race
> > and have about the same chance of getting the
> > distance, do you assume Mat is the better horse
> > and will run on longer? That\'s a pretty tough
> > pill for me to swallow.
> >
> > I can really see playing this race assuming
> that
> > if Mat tries to go with AP early the majority
> of
> > the trip around he will likely get cooked. AP
> may
> > get cooked as well and someone else passes them
> > both, but I see Mat spitting out the bit first.
> >
> > For me Mat is going to be a toss in this race.
>
> I would view the scenario you are looking at
> unfolding as not a lot different than the way the
> derby unfolded between AP and Firing Line. It was
> the only time AP has faced a real challenge and it
> was a stirring duel. AP required significant whip
> work to get there, Firing Line may have damaged
> his final position by never switching leads. I
> will note that Gary Stevens felt very confident
> that he could reverse the result. And so did a lot
> of other people, so the idea of a horse running
> with AP early and finishing him off in a duel is
> not such a crazy thought.
>
> I see Materiality as running the same sort of race
> in the Belmont that Firing Line did in the Derby.
> Materiality handled a fairly tough stretch duel in
> the Florida Derby, so to my eye, he has been there
> and done it. Maybe Materiality does switch leads
> and AP needs to face a rerally? Maybe AP doesn\'t
> respond as well to the 32 strokes necessary in the
> Belmont as he did in the Derby (not as fresh,
> maybe thinking enough is enough). How does that
> help in your scenario?
>
> My plan is to just enjoy this race and not be
> encumbered with any bets. However, one thing I
> will point out is that if AP dusts this field in
> the Belmont, where does that put Firing Line? As
> far as I can see, if that happens, AP will have a
> remarkable set of PPs and the only horse that ever
> really ran with him would be Firing Line. Firing
> Line could be something really special if we ever
> get a chance to see him. AS far as I can
> remember, he has yet to bounce.
Let me ask a different way, let\'s say that Firing Line had skipped the Preakness and there was no Materiality in the Belmont. Wouldn\'t your question about Materiality still apply but instead be about Firing Line rather than Materiality? If you would agree yes, it would seem to me very scary to be throwing out Firing Line on the reasoning you are using. On what basis would you say that Firing Line would likely first spit it? Maybe he changes leads this time. Maybe for AP the 32 whips don\'t do the trick a second time. So, if it would be scary to throw out Firing Line on the scenario you are describing, then why isn\'t it scary to be throwing out Materiality? The only difference between the two cases is that Materiality had trouble in the Derby didn\'t run his race whereas Firing Line would be coming into the Belmont of a line with no reaction point. However, I do not think that distinction should be enough to justifying say -- Firing Line would be a real contender, but Materiality already showed his weakness in the Derby and therefore will crack first.
I think the bigger issue is what people have said previously about Pletcher\'s big tops at Gulfstream being able to be replicated under stringent testing regimes.
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> There is one great Sarava Belmont story, but I\'ll
> let the principal tell it hear. HP?
Is that the one that involves a wife?
\"Honey, I\'ve got some good news and some bad news...\"
That\'s only one of the stories involving the ride home from the Belmont. I was once in the car with a guy who was doing a report on the race via phone that was being broadcast live all over Australia when someone cut us off...
SoCal,
I understand your point. But if this were Firing Line in this same spot my answer would be yes, I would say the same thing. And I didn\'t like FL in the Preakness at all for more or less the same reasons. And for the record, I\'m not claiming I cashed the Preakness because I didn\'t.
AP is simply overpowering his rivals on the front end. If someone is going to beat him I think they will come from well off the pace, and only if others do the dirty work to soften AP up.
I said it earlier this week, but go back and watch the replay of Smarty\'s Belmont.
The only way I could play Mat or a hypothetical FL here would be if I thought AP was going to bounce.
Mat is a toss for me on Sat. Still trying to decide what that means in terms of trying to squeeze some value out of the race and betting it. If I\'m wrong so be it.
Now that was funny! Still chuckling...
mjellish Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> AP is simply overpowering his rivals on the front
> end. If someone is going to beat him I think they
> will come from well off the pace, and only if
> others do the dirty work to soften AP up.
>
This is the crux of the matter.
I do not see the Derby the same way you see the Derby. In the Derby I was watching, I saw a horse go with AP early and that horse beat everybody in the Derby except for AP. While there is no question AP beat him, I did not come away thinking that there is no way in another circumstance the tables couldn\'t be turned. If Firing Line and AP faced each other in something like the Haskell, I would view Firing Line as having an excellent chance of going head to head with AP and winning. I think Gary Stevens came away thinking that too. The truth is we will never know, but Firing Line did his running without the benefit of switching leads and AP required a sado-masochism session to hold him off.
The fact is I bet Materiality heavily in the Derby and if I had to use my brain to pick the best value bet in the Belmont I am guessing he is the horse I would pick, but I feel that AP has the best chance I have seen since Spectacular Bid to win a triple crown and I feel (for the first time ever) I am more interested in seeing a triple crown winner than cashing a bet (hence I plan to be on the betting sidelines for the main event). While I think there could be reasons to throw out Materiality (the gulfstream top was drug aided and not real OR the gulfstream top was too huge and took too much out of him), I see throwing him out on the theory that he is less equipped to handle the speed duel as a far riskier gamble. He looked pretty strong in the stretch to me in the FLA Derby
socalman2,
I think u hit the point of disagreement. How to view the derby. Some venerable/sharp board members like mike/miff and Mjellish see the derby as a more dominant performance than some of the rest of us do. I saw what u saw. A horse all out who was a tad better than firing line. I am not buying what some of his connections were selling after the derby that he didn\'t like the track there. Those that did, or felt he didn\'t look as good on the track derby day, feel his preakness win confirmed they were right. Those that didn\'t, feel the preakness did nothing but confirm what we already knew, that AP loves the slop.
Both opinions are valid, until at least around 7 pm Saturday.
Rob
I\'m with you on Materiality. Just not seeing it. I like Frosted and will likely use some of the the longer, slower plodders who might take to the distance.
Not looking to open a can of worms but curious how others would bet this horizontally? Let\'s say you find value in the surrounding races, do you include AP (IMO the most likely winner but a big underlay) on any tickets or do you go for broke? Again, a mild preference for frosted and a belief that just about any of them could be the \"last one standing\", so no strong opinion other that AP being an underlay.
Personally, I am going for broke. I was all over frosted for the derby and told myself I would bet him again in the Belmont. If I change course now I would be kicking myself if he runs well and I didn\'t play him. He will be my key in all of my tri\'s. I will use him, mubtaahij and keen ice in my pick 4. I will play a small pick 3 with AP as my key for a saver.I know it will take some luck to keep AP out of the top spot, but I just don\'t see the value of using him as your key in vertical or horizontal wagers. Good luck with your wagers!
Patrick
If you are using AP in a pick 3 you better be playing bombs in the other legs. If you like him as a single in the pick 4 why not just play the pick 3 without the Belmont. Bottom line I\'m not a fan of using a 3-5 shot in the first or last leg of a pick 4.
And this from someone who will root for AP to win.
Better to play the pick 4 to beat AP. In that case if you are using a lot of horses in Belmont you can add AP cheaply for a saver.
FWIW
As to horizontals on the Belmont, my approach has always been to focus on the
big race of the day, the race which tends to cap off an all stakes horizontal.
This year I might look elsewhere to find horizontal happiness, though I am
certain to make a token wager on the P4 which ends with the Belmont.
As contrarian as this might sound I think AP stands a good chance to win the
Belmont (duh). As I have previously stated, I do not think AP has some of the
weaknesses of Smarty and Brownie. I also do not think the depth of competition
here is that impressive.
I think that Materiality\'s lack of foundation hurts his chances of prevailing
at 1-1/2 miles more than AP\'s four races in 85 days hurt his chances of being
Triple Crowned.
Frosted is capable of running a big one as he looks to give his sire back to
back Belmonts. He hasn\'t bowled anyone over in his preparation and this might
be of some concern to those who think (as I do) that a lightly raced 3YO should
be jumping out of his skin at this point in his development. Will likely toss
him off the P4 but might dabble in doubles.
I will probably use Pletcher\'s Peter Pan winner as the other colt on my ticket.
Another one who has been uninspiring in the morning, but TAP has been winning
at a 50% rate at Spring Belmont and the Peter Pan has been a good prep for the
Belmont, starting with Coastal in 1979 and including Tonalist last year. Expecting 10/1 - 15/1 with Javier.
The slow horses are slow, and the reward for backing them will be somewhat
diluted due to the size of the field. The argument that Keen, Matzotahiiiij,
Frammento or Tale of Verve can win the Belmont because Commendable, Da Tara and
Sarava won the Belmont has very little logic to me -- different years,
different horses.
Other comments:
The Acorn is an outstanding betting race.
I looked at Friday\'s form for two days before JB beneficently decided to
release the TGs. In my best TGJB teaser tone, let me say that there is a horse
in one of the stakes Friday who looks like death and taxes in the Form, but is
just one of many contenders off the TGs.
Who is Maximova?
Nyet.
It may take me awhile to get this hook out of my mouth and since maximova is headed for the French open.
2nd guess, Who played Dirty Harry in True North?
Strike Two.
Ritchie,
I\'m stumped!
I find several other opportunity horses but Swipe doesn\'t fit the profile and probably only gets 2nd or 3rd in the Baby Stakes.
White Rose is another with a price but may not get to the front until too late.
Artic North ran big @ 2M but that was then and this is now the connections may be hallucinating more than I.
The sound you hear is me tapping out. Which ever horse it is good luck with it!
Tavasco:
I\'m looking at the uncoupled stablemate of Inspector Callahan...
Gracias
what if both Victor and Johnny V decide to run as slow as they possibly can early on? what if they go 24.5 & 50? what if they both have tight holds entering the far turn? if that happens, this thing plays more like a 9 or 10f race. if this plays like a 9 or 10f race, the 4-5, 4-1, and 5-1 shots are the best horses, and there is no bet to be made imo. Mat is fast, but he has a 110 Beyer on the page that everybody sees. what exactly are you betting on? Frosted is good, but 4-1 doesn\'t offer much value.
what are the chances of a 50 pace? I\'m not sure to be honest, but I absolutely hate this race if neither Mat nor AP run honest fractions early on.
I have a few ideas if they go 48 and a mile in 1:35 or so, but if that\'s only 50%, my value is already gone.
how fast is this pace going to be?
Interviewed by Andy Serling at the draw yesterday, Pletcher indicated he wanted an honest pace and that Mat was the one to ensure one.
Mike D,
Not sure of pace splits but on a normal fast track not sure AP can run that slow. Broke outward in last and has pulled off shoes early in two starts. Materiality was OP in last and isn\'t exactly a gate rocket ship in any of races prior to the derby.
Pace should be AP and Mat but how fast is very tough to gauge imo.
Mile
thanks for that, Bob.
Mike, one or two additional speed types would have made a world of difference. the odds of 2 going would have been much higher, and both Johnny V and Victor would have been forced to work a bit harder early to get clear running.
this race stinks.
Frosted, Moob,Madeflucky, mini mini tactical vs Frammento,Verve,Keen Ice, not an ounce of early gas.
Could play out a match race between AP and Mat with them running away from the second tier somewhere down the backside.
No one asked, but if you ask me I think you can rest assured of an honest pace. There is a triple crown on the line, and AP is a front runner. They are going to make him earn it. I base this on every other Belmont I have seen with a Triple Crown on the line...
Let me put it this way, I don\'t think anyone really wants to run with AP early. But show me one other Belmont with a triple crown on the line where they let the Derby and Preakness winner have it all his own way on the front end with hopes he would fall apart on his own late. You aren\'t going to find one. AP is the horse to beat and EVERYONE knows it.
So lets say AP breaks on top, alone, and they get to the backstretch with a half in 49 change, you can better believe someone is going to make a mid race move and go up to pressure him ensuring a quicker 3rd fraction. And if he doesn\'t break on top alone and two of them go in 49 and change I still say someone else is then going to make a move on the backstretch to ensure a quick 3rd or 4th fraction. Made From Lucky and Frosted have shown early speed in other races and could do so again here if the fractions seem to0 slow early and the jocks ask them to go. Even Mub could make a move. And I also expect Frammento to be closer to the pace than usual as he\'s been training that way in the AM.
The percentage play is to say the pace will be honest or faster and I am banking on this.
mjellish Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> No one asked, but if you ask me I think you can
> rest assured of an honest pace. There is a triple
> crown on the line, and AP is a front runner. They
> are going to make him earn it. I base this on
> every other Belmont I have seen with a Triple
> Crown on the line...
Agreed completely. Belmont\'s with TCs on the line are FAST. Nobody is going to let AP walk away with a lead.
Drossel-Winner
First Winner as sire in 4th @ Pim @ 4.5 F
Michael D
I think if u look vertical, I would agree. The race sucks. I don\'t think AP pulls a big brown type race and I think materiality and frosted run well.
That said, as a horizontal bettor, if I think the 5-1 and 6-1 shots have ALMOsT as strong a chance as the 1-2 shot, I can\'t say the race stinks. Actually, I think it is an excellent horizontal betting race.
Rob
fair enough, Rob. I didn\'t like Mat or Frosted in the Derby, and I don\'t find either to be particularly interesting in this spot. but AP will be overbet because of the circumstances and keying one of the fast ones, albeit at lowish odds, makes some sense. and as I said earlier, I think they both benefit if the pace is soft and the race plays short.
I know that TGraph bettors will be separating these two animals on patterns. For me, I like the pattern analysis, but one is always looking for a little more to flesh out the bet.
I believe that Materiality has a more clearly defined Distance pedigree. It starts with what his sire accomplished and he brings in more from his female side. I\'m not saying Materiality is an impeccably bred Belmont Stakes animal, but to my eye there is definitely more there. There\'s tail female influence in his half sister Miss Sophia and another tail female horse that was named Eye of the Tiger. Neither was outstanding, but both won at 9 and 9.5 furlongs respectively.
Materiality has shown good professionalism in his workouts, especially tandem workouts. He\'s not over eager and I don\'t expect him to be on the lead. If American Pharoah won\'t take it, Materiality may inherit the lead. I think he\'d be very dangerous there.
I like Materiality to win this race or perhaps earn second. I will play him in the first three finishing positions.
mjellish Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> From looking at the past performances it would
> appear that Mat and AP are the two likely front
> runners in the race. AP is a confirmed front
> runner. He may not have the lead but he is going
> to be close. And it\'s hard to believe that
> Pletcher wouldn\'t send Mat in this spot.
>
> So if you assume that to be true, how do you take
> Materiality to win that duel? Do you figure AP to
> bounce or not get the distance?
>
> If not, if you think they will both run their race
> and have about the same chance of getting the
> distance, do you assume Mat is the better horse
> and will run on longer? That\'s a pretty tough
> pill for me to swallow.
>
> I can really see playing this race assuming that
> if Mat tries to go with AP early the majority of
> the trip around he will likely get cooked. AP may
> get cooked as well and someone else passes them
> both, but I see Mat spitting out the bit first.
>
> For me Mat is going to be a toss in this race.
jbelfior Wrote:
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> > Anyone impressed with the pedigree of Ruler On
> Ice, Commendable, D\'Tara, or Tabasco Cat?
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B.
Da\' Tara actually had something to offer on pedigree. Commendable looks a little better from the future, but that was a weak Belmont. Suppose if they go slow enough any kind of pedigree can win. Maybe that\'s the tactics referred to. Slow and Steady. With the exception of Tabasco Cat as favorite in his Belmont Stakes, you\'ve cited some slowly run races. But then some might say we are coming off a New York Bred Slow Rats Derby and a slower Preakness.
But for every off pedigree winner you have to count horses like Drosselmeyer, Lemon Drop Kid, Ap Indy, Colonial Affair and a much larger host of others. (Drosselmeyer crawled too.)
Regarding Slow Rats, I\'m working Tale of Verve into this bet.
I think, actually, that the last thing Espinoza will do is get in a duel with Materiality. I think he\'ll sit just off him whether Materiality runs a half in 47 or 49 (And I hope it\'s 47). The question is, what\'s in AP\'s tank at the 3/8s pole?
Deadrockstar Wrote:
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> I think, actually, that the last thing Espinoza will do is get in a duel with Materiality.
to me that\'s the elephant in the OTB... advanatage Mat.. come get me, now, later, don\'t matter but you better bring your A game cause that\'s what I brought today
> The question is, what\'s in AP\'s tank at the 3/8s pole?
enough gas to get to the 1/4 pole