Excellent article by Andy Beyer reminds me of the slow slugs that have defeated horses much faster than them at 1 1/2 miles.
The Washington Post
When American Pharoah seeks to complete a sweep of the Triple Crown at Belmont Park on Saturday, racing fans will hope to see a great race and perhaps a definitive confirmation that the winner has earned a lofty place in the sport's history.
Based on recent history, it won't happen. Once billed as the "test of the champion," the Belmont Stakes in recent years has produced so many bizarre, fluky outcomes that it is difficult to discern what thoroughbred qualities the race is testing. Since 2000, its winners have included such improbable long shots as Commendable ($39.60), Sarava ($142.50), Da'Tara ($79) and Ruler On Ice ($51.50), none of whom was distinguished before the Belmont and none of whom ever captured a stakes race after it.
Andrew Beyer has been The Washington Post's horse racing columnist since 1978 and is considered one of the leading experts on the subject. View Archive
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The quality of horses' performances in recent runnings of the Belmont, as measured by their winning times, has been dismal. This is the event that produced what may have been the greatest thoroughbred performance of all time, Secretariat's victory in 1973, when he ran 11 /2 miles in 2 minutes 24 seconds, a North American dirt record that still stands. From that year through 2009, only two Belmonts were run slower than 2:30. But in four of the past five years, the winning time for the race has been 2:30.42 or worse. Speed figures — which take into account the speed of the surface over which horses compete — confirm that the last seven editions of the Belmont Stakes have been significantly slower than the historical norm.
In the post-war years, U.S. breeders imported outstanding European stallions such as Nasrullah and Princequillo, whose pedigrees were infused with stamina and who put their stamp on the American thoroughbred. The great horses of the 1960s and 1970s — such as Kelso, Forego, Damascus, Secretariat and Affirmed — were almost all great performers at 11 /2 miles or farther.
During this era, the best American bloodstock was controlled by wealthy individuals and families who bred and raced their own horses. (Such operations owned nine of the 11 Triple Crown winners.) But as the influence of the dynasties faded, more top racing prospects were sold at auction instead of being campaigned by their breeders.
At these sales, overseas buyers began to acquire the best of U.S. thoroughbred bloodlines, which proceeded to dominate the 11 /2-mile Epsom Derby for years to come. (The past 16 winners of the Epsom Derby are all descendants of Kentucky Derby winner Northern Dancer.) At the same time, a new breed of American buyer came into the marketplace, with different aims. Pedigree expert Bill Oppenheim said: "Many of the buyers in the commercial auction market had financial pressures that the patricians didn't have, meaning they wanted quicker returns on their investment. It wasn't particularly conscious, but it happened."
Instead of waiting for a potential long-distance runner to mature, buyers sought a horse who would be fast and precocious, enabling them to generate that quick return. Breeders saw that buyers wanted pedigrees infused with speed, and so they began to de-emphasize stamina when they planned matings. Success at 11 /2 miles was often perceived as a negative factor for a potential stallion because it implied that he was not a horse with speed. (This prejudice does not apply to sires of distance-running turf horses, such as Kitten's Joy and Dynaformer, but only a rare stamina-oriented sire of dirt horses can make his mark as did the 1992 Belmont winner, A.P. Indy.)
Birdstone, the 2004 Belmont Stakes winner, illustrates the workings of the marketplace. At stud he has sired a Belmont winner, Summer Bird, as well as a Kentucky Derby winner, Mine That Bird. Yet he is an unfashionable stallion, standing now for a paltry $5,000 fee at Gainesway Farm.
"People have the memory of him coming from far back in the Belmont, and the commercial market is more focused on speed," said Gainesway's director of sales Michael Hernon. At least Birdstone was able to remain in the Blue Grass; other Belmont winners have been exiled to locales such as Venezuela, South Korea and Turkey.
With fewer horses bred to run long distances, racetracks have de-emphasized tests of stamina on the dirt. New York's most important race for older horses, the Jockey Club Gold Cup, contested at two miles for more than a half-century, was shortened to 11 /2 miles and shortened again to its present distance of 11 /4 miles. The Belmont Stakes is the only remaining Grade I dirt race at 11 /2 miles in the United States.
Why the Triple Crown is so hard to win(2:31)
In 1979, Ron Franklin tried to win the Triple Crown, thoroughbred racing's highest achievement for finishing first at the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes. He lost in the Belmont Stakes, despite being the favorite. Franklin talks about his loss and what makes the Triple Crown so difficult to win. (Alice Li/The Washington Post)
So there is no reason for an American breeder to mate a sire and dam with the aim of producing a horse to run 12 furlongs on the dirt. Almost every pedigree gets a significant infusion of speed — as in the case of American Pharoah. He inherits stamina from his sire and especially from his grandsire, Empire Maker, a Belmont Stakes winner and an influential stallion. But his dam, Littleprincessemma, contributes no stamina to the pedigree; her sire, dam and siblings were quick sprinters.
Littleprincessemma's genes aren't going to help American Pharoah on Saturday. Like his rivals at Belmont Park, his pedigree is ill-suited to the anachronistic distances of 11 /2 miles on dirt. That's why the Belmont Stakes has become such an unpredictable race — even when the field includes a superior talent trying to win the Triple Crown.
Good article.
Hopefully, we can add Keen Ice ($45.00) to the above list after Saturday.
Keen Ice reportedly doing very well and visually his workout was impressive as he clicked off 12\'s rather easily.
So how does he get into the race? If they go :24 and :49 he\'ll still be 8-10 lenghths out of it. No sign of any turn of foot in any of his races. Would need a complete collapse of at least 3 horses including Frosted who has a better turn of foot with better final quarters and performance numbers.
Could be second or third if stars align, but seriously doubt that he passes them all.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Joe B,
If AP goes 49 on an honest surface, Espinoza should be shot.AP\'s main weapon is his speed vs this particular group and not to use it would be a tactical error imo.Assuming AP makes the lead, he should go honest splits. See a bit of a possibility that TAP camp may try to sucker Espinoza to surrender early lead to Materiality, pit bull type on front end with long range breeding.TAP/Johnny V/Monkey very racing savvy.
If 12f just too far for AP or he\'s weakened from campaign, going slow early won\'t save him nor will a sloppy track.
Good luck
Mike
Mike,
Agree with your assertion about materiality. Pletcher seems to have a modus operandi in the belmont. He has put both commissioner and Dunkirk on the lead in the past, two horses who had zero early speed prior to the Belmont (granted this year commissioner has matured into a tactical horse, but he wasn\'t last year.
In materiality, he has a horse with actual early foot, so hard to NOT see a scenario where he is pressing or setting the lead. (AP has better pace figures, but at 1 1/2 with AP not likely to be shot gunned from the start, not sure pace figures matter.
If commissioner could set the pace in this race, anybody can
Rob
Rob,
If I owned/managed AP there is no chance he would not be on the lead assuming a clean break or someone insanely sending.Getting beat using your strength should yield no regrets.
Mike
Agree. AP should try to run them all off their feet so they all stagger home. AP drawing inside may help Espinoza do the right thing. If he\'s drawn outside I\'m worried of an overconfident ride stalking a slow pace from the 2-path. But either way I expect him to win the battle with Materiality if not the war.
Regarding slugs. 3 of 8 are deep closers. That\'s a high percentage. Makes it harder to bet which one has his career day. Unlike Preakness where there was only 1 who figured to be by his lonesome relaxing early. This hurts the deep closers and hard to key on one in verticals. I\'d take Verve but could easily be wrong.
And Madefromlucky is a grinder who was underwhelming in Peter Pan and not training well according to some reports. Mub could improve several lengths now that he\'s settled into a U.S. routine. But he needs to improve a lot more than that and don\'t like how he was passed by Keen Ice and Materialitu in Derby.
That makes Frosted the main threat. He could make up the 3 derby lengths with 2 extra furlongs and is training well.
Mike
I hear u. And this is just a guess, but i don\'t think that will be the game plan.
1. It wasn\'t the gameplan in the derby
2. It wasn\'t the gameplan in the preakness until the rain came and Espinoza called a good audible.
3. Baffert has said more than once the only thing he thinks that can beat AP is the distance. As such, I would think a conservative, speed rationing ride, will be the instructions.
Just a guess.
Rob
IF the leader goes the first 4f in 49 he cannot be 8 - 10 lengths off the lead, otherwise, there is no chance to win the race. Desormeaux has to feel the pace and understand that 5 lengths is essentially the distance he needs to be within the lead. In Keen Ice\'s four two-turn races this year he has run 48.58, 49.52, 50.19 and 50.30 for the first half-mile.
Keen Ice is slowish compared to the field, but has never gone backwards and comes off a nice 2-pt top of 3 1/2 with less than 3 pts of development from 2 yo top. Curlins develop on average 4 pts from 2yo to 3yo, so Keen Ice certainly has that to his advantage.
He\'s going to be between 15-1 and 20-1? How about another forward move to 1 1/2 with a 1w 1w. Might just do it.
Rob,
Saw that, but not sure that Espinoza isn\'t pulling a detective Colombo.
Firstly, from the rail in the Preakness, he was gonna take back? doubtful, at least go forward for position.
Secondly,AP is a little spooky(hence the earplugs/cotton)around crowds/excitement.AP had exhibited too much go go go tendencies while training in Cali all winter,not too surprised that Baffert does not want him too keen/runoff.Read where Martin Garcia now feels AP much kinder since early spring, learning.
Watched all AP works/training, he still looks loaded, would never try to wrangle this one back off a projected slow-ish pace.
Mike
Mike:
That\'s how he ran in the Rebel. His weapon is to slow it down then spurt away. If Materiality can go with him when he does then we have ourselves quite a show.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Joe,
Ark derby went 22.77 early, that\'e a little easy to take off of. I\'m suggesting that a too slow early pace may not play to AP\'s strength.
Mike