Check out the video on BloodHorse; pre-gallop and gallop. Unless they put up a wall at the 1/4 pole .......
Joe,
There is a \"wall\" at the quarter pole in the Belmont, many very good horses fail to get over it.
Yes,AP looked great all week,he always looks great.
Mike
Yes Miff you\'re right. Always enjoy and respect your comments and observations. Since we won\'t be hearing from Cove,would love to have your final take on the fields\' workouts, looks, and PP draw Wed.or Thurs. Whatta you say?
Mike Welsch,DRF,has been at Belmont all week and is now at CD observing AP, he\'s got a good handle on how they are going in, training/looks wise.
Brandon clocker from 4 1/2 pole:
American Pharoah in 59 flat......and it supposed to rain too?
Another clocker from CD:
American Pharoah 5F in 1:00.20. Splits 13, 25, 36.60, 48.60. Out 1:13 for 6F, 1:26 for 7F and 1:39.60 for 1M.
Welsch:
American Pharoah... WOW!!
Hard to find any better description for AMERICAN PHAROAH\'s performance this morning. Breezing five furlongs with Martin Garcia up, his final Belmont work couldn\'t have been any more perfect, five furlongs in 1:00.08 as easy as he pleased with a tremendous gallop out, six furlongs in 1:12.82, seven eighths in 1:25.94, up ia mile in n 1:39.59, AP seemingly getting stronger the further he went while giving the appearance that he was just galloping the entire way. All he seems to need now in New York is a clean trip to complete his Triple Crown sweep in the Belmont.
If Triple Crowns were on workouts we would have seen quite a few the past 37 years.
The full AP hype in effect!!!!
David Grening, Belmont Park
Pharoah\'s work wows observers in New York
A handful of New York trainers watched American Pharoah\'s workout on Kiaran McLaughlin\'s I-pad while sitting in the clocker\'s stand at the Belmont Park trainer\'s track Monday morning.
Here were some of the comments as they watched:
\"Freak.\"
\"He looks like he\'s just galloping.\"
\"He\'s got a high cruising speed.\"
\"He\'s still going.\"
After the work was complete, I asked McLaughlin -- who is running FROSTED against American Pharoah -- what he thought of the work.
\"It was awesome,\" he said. \"He\'s just an awesome horse. He does everything effortlessly. But, it\'s a mile and a half, it\'s three race in five weeks, we have to hope for the best.\"
McLaughlin was watching American Pharoah work simultaneously as he was trying to keep an eye on Frosted, who jogged twice around the Belmont training track on a soggy, gloomy Monday morning in New York.
\"He couldn\'t be doing any better,\" McLaughlin said. \"We ran our race May 2 and we finished fourth.\"
Mike,
We all get hung up on works this time of the year, especially Derby week, but even now.
But as Kiaran sort of said, the mile and a half is a completely different animal, more so now than it was 20 years ago, because the breed has changed a lot, with much more \"speed over speed\" pedigrees.
It strikes me that all I really care to know regarding works is whether a horse is doing well or not. At least for this race. The hyperbole really not relevant IMO for the mile and a half.
Part of me says you have to handicap this race different to an EXTREME. let me explain. When I am handicapping a turf race that got washed off the turf course, the turf form is irrelevant to for the most part. A different beat, an off the turf race vs a turf race. This is obvious. But as I was bored yesterday morning and feeling a bit melancholy and watched the replays of the last 20 Belmonts, it strikes me that the mile and a half is ALMOST as different a beast to the other dirt races these horses have previously run, that it needs to be handicapped that way. Sarava, Commendable, Jazil, D\'Tara, and quite a few others.
does the effortless stride and acceleration that AP has matter that much going 1 1/2 miles? The way he blew open the Preakness field in the first quarter mile? Does that really matter in the Belmont? I think it doesn\'t. The Derby is CLOSER to a representation of what the 1 1/2 will look like. And AP ran a pretty good to very good race there, but wasn\'t much better than his competition and HARDLY looked the part of a hose that relished the distance.
The more I watched the replays of previous races and thought through some of the really good horses that crapped out in the Belmont, the more vulnerable I think AP is.
the problem is figuring out who is going to appreciate the extra distance. Sure, Materiality and Frosted are the other logical contenders, and I do like them. but if this REALLY is a different beast (the mile and a half), then you have to think outside the box a bit. What about the Dubai horse? A pure joke that he was 8-1 in the last Derby pool, after his Dubai win. (Did Greenspan coin \"irrational exuberance\"? But, now at 20-1 with the slower type pace he seemed to appreciate in the Dubai race, and his impeccable distance breeding, does a plodder like him have a reasonable shot? I think he does. i already on board with saying that the longest of the Pletchers, as much as I think he is a slug, has a longshot chance here. Seems to be getting better as spring 3 year olds sometimes do. And has that grinding style that suits this race.
I know you have said more than once, \"you don\'t see anybody beating AP if he runs his race\". Fair enough. But why would he run his race? IMO very WEAK distance breeding on the dam side. And a style that seems to be conducive to 1 1/8 type races. Not the grind fest that the Belmont is? That is WITHOUT factoring in the 4th race in 8 weeks, which matters, despite the fact that Baffert seems to be better than most, if not all the trainers at getting his horses to fire in the Triple Crown off short rest.
Rob
Rob,
Works matter more than we know. Carpe Diem was working like s-it for weeks according to guys who\'s eyes I trust.
.....Carpe Diem is out of the Belmont!
Mike
Mike,
As I said, I want to know if a horse is doing well or poorly, but as for \"how well\", I think it doesn\'t matter much that AP is working super. We all know he is a super work horse. Harrington says \"best he has clocked since Sunday Silence\".
Means VERY LITTLE as far as his ability to get the mile and a half (or not).
Carpe Diem working poorly seems to have been the worst kept secret on the planet. Everybody saying he wasn\'t going to enter, even before Pletcher made that call.
Strange. Pletcher usually VERY cautious. He tried to give this one time to turn it around.
Rob
Rob,
The scr of Carpe just made the race easier for AP, with no speed at all signed on. Could end up a match race around the track with Mat and AP and if you are into splits/pace figs AP loose unless Mat goes on a mission.
AP breeding kinda useless now that he got 10f and Baffert confided he thought AP was in trouble having left some \"juice\" pre race. Never saw AP scrubbed on the entire last 5/16ths like I saw in Derby, think he won \"on empty\"
Agree 12f question must be answered but you have others much closer in ability to AP than I do.
Mike
ringato3 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
The Derby is CLOSER
> to a representation of what the 1 1/2 will look
> like. And AP ran a pretty good to very good race
> there, but wasn\'t much better than his competition
> and HARDLY looked the part of a hose that relished
> the distance.
Rob, since this is a figures board, it\'s probably worth noting that AP ran a -3 in the Derby, which means among other things, that his best number has been run at the longest distance. That\'s hardly determinative of his ability to get 1 1/2, but not something that should be lightly dismissed, either.
I fully agree with you about the unique challenges of handicapping this race. There is a basic question that has yet to be answered for every horse. When we say that there is very questionable value for AP at 3-5, I have to agree, if for no other reason than the distance, though the spacing matters, too. But, if he needs to answer the question about the uniqueness, don\'t Frosted and Materiality need to as well? So, even though more rested, in this \"uncertainty framework\" is there any more value in them at 5-1 or 8-1? Weren\'t there contenders every bit as impressive as they are, who were comfortably beaten by Jazil, DaTara, etc.?
There will be plenty of value on Saturday. I\'m just having a very hard time aligning the projected odds with any kind of personal odds board, because the components of that personal board, as imperfect as they may be, don\'t align with the conditions and history of this race. Any other race, and it would be a no-brainer pass.
Good luck.
Moosepalm,
Good points. Agree this is a \"speed figures\" board, but a speed figure isn\'t a performance figure. As I mentioned once before, by my view, the Preakness was no regression for AP. That isn\'t to say I am questioning TGJB or Beyer, but rather the speed figure doesn\'t take into consideration pace or trip/ease of trip. The ground loss that AP endured in the Derby was \"comfortable ground loss\", or if I wanted to be combative, \"phony ground loss\". No, I am not questioning geometry, but sitting 3 wide, off a couple dueling/pressing horses, is a very comfortable trip for any horse, especially a quality horse. So ground loss related to that trip inflates a speed figure relative to a performance figure. Again, that is personal interpretation, which people can agree or disagree.
I don\'t take the figure AP earned in the Derby lightly. But the way he earned it is pretty important, at least to me. All out the last 5/16ths as Mike pointed out, and hit 30+ times with the whip. He bottomed out/emptied out. Nobody can sanely argue against that. he came back and whistled running them into the ground in a driving rain at Pimlico.
Now he goes 1 1/2 mile. Another 1/4 mile beyond the Derby.
I will respectfully disagree with Mike\'s assertion that having won at 1 1/4, he has mostly dispelled the distance question at 1 1/2. The game has been littered the last 10 years with miler type pedigrees that got the 1 1/4 in the Derby. Funny Cide, Smarty Jones, California Chrome, War Emblem. Those are a few. The 1 1/2 is a VERY different game. It just is. I think California Chrome had last year\'s crop WAY MORE OVER A BARREL based on his Derby than American Pharaoh has this field over a barrel. How did he do at the 1 1/2.
As for your point about THEY ALL HAVE TO PROVE it at 1 1/2. I agree completely. None are proven at the distance.
But at 3/5 or thereabouts, there can\'t be the same level of uncertainly in making that bet (in any pool), than there can be in taking ANY OTHER HORSE IN THE FIELD. That is just math. Uncertainty or the \"X-factor\" or a high delta in \"probable results\" will ALWAYS hurt a 3/5 shot more than any other horse. The crazier the potential result, the worse the bet is on the favorite. Hard to argue that.
And for this breed, 1 1/2 on dirt is a HUGE X FACTOR.
Rob
Ring,
I think what most people on this board would say is that sooner or later AP has to bounce. This will be his 4th race in 8 weeks. 4 different distances, 4 different tracks. That\'s asking a lot of any 3 year old colt.
The real question is, will Saturday be the day he bounces? If I were playing percentages (and I believe that\'s exactly what betting on horse races comes down to) I would say the percentage play is to say AP bounces and to play against him at short odds. He\'s trying to do something no colt has done 30+ years.
That being said, I would be a hell of lot more comfortable playing against him if I saw additional reasons to do so. So far I haven\'t seen any. His latest work was awesome, maybe even too awesome. Who knows, maybe this is finally \"the one.\" I sure as hell dunno.
But the percentage play, for sure, is to play against him to win.
The more I am looking at the race, the more I am tending to say: Ok, so the colt came into the Triple Crown sequence pretty fresh and seems to be peaking rather than regressing. Fine, he\'s going to run his race. But is that going to be good enough? He doesn\'t exactly lay over the entire field. It was just 5 weeks ago many of us were acknowledging that this is one of the strongest group of 3 year olds we have ever seen. And I do think this field will make AP earn it. I don\'t think there are going to be soft fractions for the 1 1/2 in this race. I expect him to be challenged at least twice.
So who can step up and beat him?
MJ,
I understand your point and also understand that particularly on this board, people are looking for the regression.
I guess it is somewhat chicken and egg.
If he runs a good race for 1 1/4 and gets leg weary late, and beat, did he bounce? Or does it mean that he wasn\'t suited for the 1 1/2? It won\'t matter, those that bet against him will be cashing.
If the Belmont was at 1 1/8 or 1 3/16ths, I wouldn\'t be betting against him. I can\'t blindly bet \"bounce\" because I am hoping a horse backs up off of big efforts. I can do that when a claimer runs a big figure out of nowhere and then comes back at short odds, but I can\'t do that when a horse like AP runs super at 2 years old, then comes back and runs super at 3 years old and is working like a banshee. I can\'t say \"time to bounce\", and bet against when there is no sign of it in physicality or works.
But, when I see a horse EXTREMELY spent at 1 1/4 with the dam side pedigree that AP has, and then add in he is coming in for his 4th race in 8 weeks, then I can say \"bet against\".
I can\'t make a good case for anybody outside the obvious 2 alternatives in Materiality and Frosted, in that order.
I can make a weak case for two others. The other Pletcher is rounding into form and has a nice prep over the track and the right style. Improving spring 3 year olds are always nice. The other \"weak\" case I can make is for Mubtahij. Wondering if the more methodical early pace and 1 1/2 distance make this Derby \"also ran\" more interesting at 1 1/2. he was completely outclassed in the Derby, but this will be an 8 horse field with a somewhat controlled pace, which he can be somewhat near. He might be able to get the trip that he got in Dubai, albeit against monsters here and not Dubai horses. Like I said, a \"weak case\", but at 20-1 in the exotics, I can live with a weak case, I wouldn\'t expect a \"strong case\" at that price.
Rob
ringato3 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
.
>
> As for your point about THEY ALL HAVE TO PROVE it
> at 1 1/2. I agree completely. None are proven at
> the distance.
>
.
Rob, in the interests of space, I just clipped this one segment, but your points were all fairly stated.
There is no doubt that the 3/5 odds are the key. I think everyone other than Vito will have an opinion on AP\'s Derby performance beyond the figures. Mine probably doesn\'t align with yours, but I certainly understand the analysis. But, to get to the part of your post I highlighted, that distance uncertainty is the elephant in the room. It seems unlikely that it\'s not unrelated to the fact that so many 1-2 Belmont finishers in recent years have come in at double digit odds. If I don\'t like AP at 3-5, I\'m not sure if I like the next two favorites, even with more generous odds. Nothing in their performance line suggests they like 1 1/2 more than any of the others, other than having proven they can get the first 1 1/8 more quickly. It really is a two part problem for me. The first part is having an opinion against a horse. If I decide to have an opinion against AP, then Part 2, is I need to have an opinion favoring a horse, and, for me, it can\'t be built around excusing a Derby performance. I\'ve been down that road before. It\'s not like other races where you see a strong pattern, or a key race, or a horse getting back to a two-year old top. The consensus argument regarding the positives of the other horses is they won\'t be going off at 3-5. That pretty much only leads me to the \"all-but button,\" which probably has had a pretty good ROI in the Belmont in the past 8 or 9 years, but I first have to convince myself that the biggest reason I don\'t think AP will win is something other than him being 3-5.
Moose,
Understand your point.
But will make one counterpoint. U said u can\'t forgive a bad derby. I don\'t know, I think this is a pretty good angle. Birdstone, summer bird, palace malice and Union rags all ran mediocre derbies. Frosted and materiality ran better than all except maybe summer bird (from memory he got s ground loss loaded figure that made him look good on figures heading into the belmont)
Good luck
Rob
MJ:
Small field. I don\'t see a strong pace in here at all. I think AP goes to the lead in a sub-24 then slows it down with a :25 second quarter with Materiality not far off. Materiality hooks him on the turn and they sprint away from the rest as Frosted and the Dubai colt are being pushed to keep up.
Feel free anyone to write the ending.
Good Luck,
Joe B
ringato3 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Moose,
>
> Understand your point.
>
> But will make one counterpoint. U said u can\'t
> forgive a bad derby. I don\'t know, I think this
> is a pretty good angle. Birdstone, summer bird,
> palace malice and Union rags all ran mediocre
> derbies. Frosted and materiality ran better than
> all except maybe summer bird (from memory he got s
> ground loss loaded figure that made him look good
> on figures heading into the belmont)
>
> Good luck
>
> Rob
Rob, it\'s always a question of percentages. The list of horses who ran in the Derby and Belmont would have a wide range of outcomes between the two races, beyond the four you\'ve listed. It isn\'t that I can\'t forgive the performance, it\'s that I don\'t find any predictive value in it. Birdstone and Palace Malice ran new tops 4 points above anything they\'d run before. Perhaps that\'s an analogy for the Dubai horse. Summer Bird hit a 2 point top. Union Rags paired his top with a rather lackluster 2, and for that, you got 5-2 (co-favorite with Dullahan who backed up 6 from the Derby). The question becomes, what can you extrapolate from the diverse range of Derby-Belmont performances to hang your hat on? Last year, you had Medal Count moving forward 2 points, while Wicked Strong and General A-Rod ran back to their Derby figure, or a point above. All three of them were below their tops, while Tonalist and Commissioner, ran 1-2 with 2 and 3 point tops, respectively, and neither ran in the Derby. The other horses from the Derby, last year, backed up, some considerably. So, this is far from conclusive, but it seems that most of the horses who moved up from their Derby performance did it with an element of surprise, or at least their mutuals would lead one to think so, while the majority didn\'t move forward at all.
This is hardly an exhaustive investigation, but I\'d be quite surprised if a more thorough search didn\'t find even more data pointing in all directions. Neither history nor current horse performance leads me anywhere with conviction. I wish you well with yours.
I told someone Saturday nite who asked me if he can win, \"There are a handful of ways to win a horse race and 100 ways to lose one.\" So take that for what it\'s worth. And No one on this Board will be betting him to win at 3/5.
But a strong gallop out in 1:39 and 3 when he wont have to go much faster than that on Saturday to come home in a winnable 2:26, 2:27 or 2:28 is impressive. If someone says they liked the way the horse worked, its just an opinion. I don\'t believe that meant they said they were now going to bet him....
I think it depends on post position. Between American Pharoah & Materiality, if one is in post 1-3 he goes, the other tracks him. If someone wants to run with them or even take the lead, I don\'t think he\'ll be taken seriously & they\'ll let him do whatever he wants since they\'ll figure to catch him later. My guess is it\'s only AP & M with the post position scenario as noted.
Personally, I don\'t think Materiality can either catch AP if he\'s chasing, or stop him from going by from the far turn on.
So, that puts AP up and leaving Materiality in his dust in the stretch. The big question is, did holding off or tracking Materiality take too much out of AP by deep stretch. It seems like many of the defeated Triple Crown aspirants got caught in the stretch after opening up & looking like they\'d win. Pharoah should be in that same position with the question being will he get caught in the final 8th. I\'m thinking no, because the others will be too far back, but if he is it could be a chaos ending with any of the closers nipping him.
I\'m going to root for the Triple Crown & do what I did in the Preakness, bet AP in horizontal bets & try to hit a DD or P3 and stay away from any win bet or the verticals unless I play 1 cold exacta with AP over a closer.
Silver
Plenty from this board will be betting him at 3/5. They just won\'t be doing it in the win pool.
It is a misnomer to say u aren\'t taking 3/5 when u bet a 3/5 shot horizontally or vertically. Still 3/5. They will just be trying to change the risk/reward paradigm by picking winners around him horizontally or finding the right horse underneath.
Rob
I\'m pretty sure that\'s what I said \"No one on this Board will be betting him to Win at 3/5.\" Go read it again. I now know how RickB feels....
Joe, I don\'t know for sure. But this Belmont, to me, is a lot like 2004. Now AP doesn\'t lay over the field like Smarty did, and his sheet says he backed up not moved forward in Preakness. So I\'m not talking from the sheet patterns. I am talking from a tactical stand point.
To me, If no one goes AP probably does and they won\'t let him get away with that for too long. And if he doesn\'t go someone else will and AP will lay close. Now regardless, at some point on the back stretch, if you ask me, someone is going to make a mid race move. The question then becomes will AP wait rather than move too early if need be, or does he go on too, pace be damned?
Add to this that Pletcher likes to send in this race, and he\'s probably got two in here, and I say the pace winds up being faster than what you would think.
So for me, race may set up for a deep closer to run well.
Good luck rating him. Funnycide came into the Belmont on the muscle and eager to go. Too eager. He spent his powder in the first mile. From what I see, AP could very well do the same. The only thing that gets him home will be a sloppy track ala Conquistador Cielo.
I worry that AP will go out to an easy lead. Baffert will want the lead here. AP didn\'t really power past any one in the Derby finishing in 27+. The big question here is will the other morons concede this early lead. Ran the derby without much of a challenge with a 105 Beyer (below Average). I am wondering in the Preakness if he beat a very weak field. I think his beyer here was a 102.
And now another light field in the Belmont. Worst triple crown series ever could produce the worst triple crown winner ever.
What happened to the \"we\'re seeing something special\" crop, a la TGJB? That sure faded fast!
I can\'t get that 2004 Belmont out of my head and just get the vibe that we might see a repeat of that style of race with AP finishing 2nd. Smarty regressed 3 points and Birdstone ran a 4 point new top. In 2002 Sarva runs a 4 point new top, Palice Malice 4 point top to win the race, Tonalist a 2 point top. So a 4 point top isn\'t out of the question, giving everyone a shot.
When I look over the last few years the Belmont sets up as a stalkers race (29 races - 2 wire jobs, 22 stalkers, 5 closer). That\'s another knock on AP for me, only 2 wire jobs Commendable and Da\'Tara.
When I look over the last 10 winners I see stamina on the sire side for all but Da\'Tara. Better yet are those that have some stamina on the dam sire line. That gives me in order Frosted, Mubtaahij, Materiality, Keen Ice, Tale of Verve, Madefromlucky, Framento.
I really wanted to make a case for using Mubtaahij on top since I think he will be forwardly placed and can run all day but Frosted looks far more likely.
Two different animals and two very different ways they trained/are training into the Belmont:
http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2003-06-04/sports/0306040265_1_cide-belmont-fast-work
Not that any of this means he can still keep that stride the last 1/8th.
The KD is won by the 1/8th pole most of time by 1 1/8 horses. The Belmont is won in the last 1/8th more often and with much closer finishes similar to turf racing without the bunched finish.
This race is an anomaly today and little wonder the hardest to handicap and wager.
That 105 below average Beyer was a well above average TG -3. Get with the program.
Just because you didn\'t like the 1st 2 legs of the Triple Crown doesn\'t make it the worst Triple Crown series ever. At this point I think it\'s the best!
Thoro-Graph players have done EXTREMELY well in the Belmont. It\'s been a little while since the last one but this is one TC race we have historically crushed, using mostly figures and patterns. The weak one has been the Preakness.
I count 7 scores since 1990, not counting Victory Gallop, and two other obvious winners that were short, don\'t remember whether I had the exacta or not. Also, I still haven\'t gotten over running 2-3 behind Ruler On Ice for a ton.
What basis are you using to judge the worst triple crown series/candidate ever? Beyers?
If you care about dosage, Mubtaahij has 1-0-2-0-1 for a DI of 1.00 and a CD of 0.00. Very uncharacteristic breeding for a horse racing in North America. Verve also gets 2 pts. in each of his stamina wings. I don\'t know if either of these two is fast enough but at least they shouldn\'t run out of gas.
Amen. This is a once in a year betting opportunity. No guarantee on a win but a big promise on value. Just wish the field was bigger.
Here\'s a comment by the trainer of Mubtaahij that he made at the Trainers Dinner before the Kentucky Derby.
\"He\'s got a lot of miles under his legs. He is a tough horse and there are no doubts he\'ll get a mile and half.\"
And I was thinking the Kentucky Derby was a mile and 1/4 race. Go figure.
The Sun article quotes a surprisingly diplomatic Bobby Frankel about Funny Cide\'s workout, in which he evidently ran off. I seems to remember his real response: that horse is toast. (with earthier language).
Big difference: not just 3 seconds, but also AP tractable, eager and wanting to do more but pretty much always doing what his rider asks.
\"we have historically crushed, using mostly figures and pattern\"
JB,
Interesting, a long time friend/sheet pattern reader tells me the Belmont the worst for that endeavor.Last one he cites as solid was Empire Maker.Not a avid pattern reader myself, but see nothing this year that sticks out, especially with the derby/preakness being kinda tough figs to take as gospel.
Mike
In almost every case my opinions were on record publicly beforehand, some of them in the Post.
Maybe he was reading the wrong sheets...
ringato3 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Moose,
>
> Understand your point.
>
> But will make one counterpoint. U said u can\'t
> forgive a bad derby. I don\'t know, I think this
> is a pretty good angle. Birdstone, summer bird,
> palace malice and Union rags all ran mediocre
> derbies. Frosted and materiality ran better than
> all except maybe summer bird (from memory he got s
> ground loss loaded figure that made him look good
> on figures heading into the belmont)
>
> Good luck
>
> Rob
Birdstone wanted NO PART of that sealed track in Smarty\'s Derby. Tossout.
Focus959 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> What happened to the \"we\'re seeing something
> special\" crop, a la TGJB? That sure faded fast!
With the qualifying phrase \"at normal American distances\", the high rating may well still hold . . .
Faded fast how, according to whom???
Not the only difference.
Funny code had some stout stamina influences on the dam side. Didn\'t help because he was rank.
But AP nothing but sprinters in the female family.
Rob
Rob,
Isn\'t it fair to assume that after winning 5 routes up to a distance of 10f that AP\'s female side has been genetically surpassed by the stamina influenced male side?
Mike
Mike
He proved he can run well at 1 1/4 while emptied out and hit 30+ times. Belmont is a different animal IMO.
Beyer wrote much more eloquently the point I was trying to make yesterday about handicapping this race differently. The more we go down the path of precocious pedigrees, the breed gets more fragile and distance challenged. I do think that is a factor in the 30 year hiatus.
Tough horse to take IMO, relative to odds. Think the derby is more representative of his distance capabilities than the preakness. I think he got a comfortable trip and was all out.
Expecting a less comfortable trip Saturday and as the big mouthed and ignorant owner of California chrome said last year \"it is unfair that fresh horses can attack a horse that had to go through the grind\". Think materiality and frosted are runners with fast figs and less wear and tear. And as much as Pletcher is borderline horrific in the derby, he gets them to run in the Belmont.
Would love to see the undercard to get the juices going. I know Bayern is gonna look slow and vulnerable on TG but his woody Stephens at belmont last year was his best race IMO. Expecting a big run.
Rob
We\'ll find out how far Lord At War can carry him. Others with better pedigree have come up short. Not to mention he\'ll be challenged by at least one horse who is rested and as fast as he is. I\'ve seen this movie before.
Rob,
We\'ll leave the derby to rest.Believe horses can spend themselves pre race. Watched it and commented to my pals that I had never seen AP washy before a race,like pre derby.
Pletcher has 31 horses entered thurs/fri/sat, wonder if the white mercedes is in town as he is winning at 40+% at Belmont.
Mike
\"as fast as he is\"
Jerry,
..who would that be,I missed it?
Mike
Wait, what? Mike, White Mercedes? Is someone posting under your name?
Ha ha, thought you\'d get a kick. Assume you have mentioned TAP and KPM runners going wild last few weeks and they have obvious, by figs, Belmont winner if AP lies down on Sat.
Don\'t know if you caught it but the BC announced a new out of competition testing program, your friend Scollay is running it.
Yes,I did.Dr Scollay trying very hard, with little $$, to do something good for integrity.
This time she\'s got the BC money to work with. And they should spend some on freezing and retesting samples.
this looks like the Smarty Jones Belmont without a Birdstone.
I doubt AP is going to run a fast 12f, but I\'m not sure that gets us anywhere. slim pickings.
Frosted and Mat are ok, but they look more like Rock Hard Ten and Eddington types.
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Rob,
>
>
> We\'ll leave the derby to rest.Believe horses can
> spend themselves pre race. Watched it and
> commented to my pals that I had never seen AP
> washy before a race,like pre derby.
>
>
> Pletcher has 31 horses entered thurs/fri/sat,
> wonder if the white mercedes is in town as he is
> winning at 40+% at Belmont.
>
> Mike
19 wins in 39 starts (49%) and 79% in the money. Yowza.
Maybe I\'m wrong but I thought Materiality had run a -3. No?
Jerry,
Close enough, both Mat and Fraud-sted neg -2 but earned a bit differently.
Mike
Michael D
At their tops, how far away were rock hard ten and eddington from smarty, at his top. 4-5 points. 8-10 lengths
Frosted and materiality are 1 point slower than AP.
Big difference, IMO
Rob
You\'re not kidding. If it wasn\'t Michael I would have ridiculed him.
Eddington, nor RHT, were stakeswinners when they contested the Belmont.
Both Materiality & Frosted are grade one kings.
While the Freak figures gate to wire if either of the former bring their A game
it will be a race. bbb
Too bad Tencendur isn\'t running, he\'s \"only\" 2.5 points slower,right?
His Wood number is exactly as accurate as Frosted\'s. That doesn\'t mean T will see it again soon, if ever.
Based on how you did it, agree, dont agree it was neg -2
Mike,
Your view on \"Fraud-sted\" as you call him, is noted.
I don\'t like him as much as Materiality, but have you considered that you might be a bit biased because you bet on him twice in Florida and lost?
He ran well last year, solid foundation and VERY GOOD Remsen, against a strong inside rail and speed bias.
He is a different animal than Tencendur, not really a fair comparison.
I don\'t think he can beat AP if AP runs his \"A\" race, but then again not sure any of these can, but Frosted and MAteriality if they run their \"A\", can beat AP at his \"B\" and there are reasons to believe AP will only run his \"B\". (distance/4th race in 8 weeks).
My problem is I wish I was getting better reports about how Materiality was doing. He was training and looking like King Kong down in Florida earlier this year.
Not so much now.
If he doesn\'t bring his A game, he can\'t win.
Rob
Pletcher's Hopes of Spoiling Triple Crown Bid Lie on Rest and Home Turf
By TOM PEDULLA
Todd Pletcher has not saddled a horse in the Preakness, the middle leg of the Triple Crown, for the last four years.
Materiality skipped the Preakness, which has been a good pattern for Belmont winners in recent years.American Pharoah and the Other ContendersJUNE 1, 2015
If the trainer Todd Pletcher is to deny American Pharoah the Triple Crown in the Belmont Stakes on Saturday, he hopes his willingness to skip the Preakness Stakes three weeks earlier will provide the edge he needs.
Pletcher will be aiming for his third Belmont victory to go with recent strong finishes that fit his pattern of passing over the Preakness and returning to his home base, Belmont Park, almost immediately after the Kentucky Derby. He has not saddled a horse in the Preakness, the middle leg of the Triple Crown, for the last four years.
"Everyone knows that the Triple Crown trail can have some setbacks," said Pletcher, the winner of seven Eclipse Awards as the leading trainer in North America. "Even though our Derby record isn't very good, we've had a very good record with these horses leading up to it and, in many cases, after it. And I think part of that is we rest them after the Derby."
Pletcher's Derby record fell to 1 for 43 when his three starters this year — Materiality (sixth), Itsaknockout (ninth) and Carpe Diem (10th) — added to years of disappointment that are somewhat offset by his success in the Belmont. Pletcher still points to the 2007 Belmont victory by Rags to Riches as his signature triumph; she was the third filly to win the contest and the first since Tanya in 1905.
Materiality, unraced at 2, will be making only his fifth start. Credit Julie Jacobson/Associated Press
Pletcher's horses were major players in the Belmont in three of the last four years. He reached the winner's circle with Palace Malice in 2013. Stay Thirsty's determined rally missed by three-quarters of a length against Ruler on Ice in 2011. Commissioner led every stride but the last in losing by a head to Tonalist last year. Pletcher described that as the most frustrating of his four second-place showings there.
There have been 11 Triple Crown winners since Sir Barton became the first to sweep the Derby, the Preakness and the Belmont in 1919. No horse has accomplished the feat since Affirmed in 1978. Pletcher views the bulk of Triple Crown history as "a different era." He noted that those horses ran more often and appeared better equipped to withstand three races in five weeks.
While American Pharoah overcame sloppy conditions to win the $1.5 million Preakness two weeks after he was all-out for a one-length victory in the Derby, Pletcher spent the last five weeks pointing Materiality and Carpe Diem, the Breeders' Cup Juvenile runner-up who was withdrawn from the Belmont field on Monday, toward the third leg of the Triple Crown. Madefromlucky, who showed promise in winning the Peter Pan Stakes on May 9, is scheduled to be his second starter.
American Pharoah did most of his training at Churchill Downs for the Preakness and the Belmont. He will not have a major workout at Belmont Park and was not due to arrive there until Tuesday, leaving him relatively little time to acclimate to the sprawling track and a surface that can be sandy and deep.
Pletcher is counting on home-course advantage. "Anytime you are at home, it is an edge," he said. "The horses are settled in here; they train over the mile-and-a-half oval every day. Anytime you can walk out of your stall into the paddock" to be saddled for the race, "it's not a disadvantage in any sense."
Although American Pharoah wore down Firing Line in a stretch duel in the Derby and romped as he relished a track turned sloppy by a prerace downpour in the mile-and-three-sixteenths Preakness, it does not appear on paper that the son of the 2009 Derby runner-up Pioneerof the Nile is bred to last a mile and a half. Then again, few horses are.
Materiality, unraced at 2, will be making only his fifth start and looks to be Pletcher's better shot. He did well to be sixth in the Derby because he hesitated at the start for Javier Castellano, his jockey, and took a fair amount of dirt in his face as he dropped far back in a crowded field of 18.
"It was a rough trip, but I'll tell you what, that horse learned a lot. He figured it out really quick," Castellano said. "Turning for home, he passed horses, he split horses and he finished really, really strong. I think he could fit perfect for the Belmont."
Pletcher said Materiality possessed so much energy after the Derby that he seriously considered him for the Preakness. Pletcher is winless with seven starters in that race, including the Derby champion Super Saver in 2010.
"At the end of the day, I felt like if I was wrong and he didn't win the Preakness, it would compromise our chances in the Belmont," he said of Materiality.
As painstaking as Pletcher is in gearing up for another Belmont, his father, Jake, a former trainer, believes the outcome may depend on an element out of everyone's control. Jake noted that American Pharoah produced runaway victories in the mud in the Arkansas Derby and the Preakness.
"It makes Pharoah a cinch if it rains," the elder Pletcher said.
Rob,
Learned the hard way to view a horse thru unbiased eyes. In Florida, Frosted was rather common, nothing to do with losing on him.Wrongly, I thought he was close in ability to Upstart and would get better,Upstart embarrassed him both times they met.Was influenced somewhat by people close to KPM who loved him in Jan and his 2yr old Remsen impressed me.
Everyone sees horses differently and Frosted has not impressed me too much, a nice horse.Inconceivable to me that he could break from post 17 and win the derby, or send in the Preakness and do what AP did.Dont have them that close in ability and accomplishment wise there is no comparison.At 6-1ish, no bargain imo, not an awful play if you feel AP over the top but he\'s no Materiality either. Consider, by association, that Mat put away Upstart who Frosted couldn\'t even threaten.Having said all that, he\'s the 3rd most likely winner.
Re Materiality, posted an article of interest.On ability, the only horse that may outrun AP, both on their A game.Mat not a training machine, will not let that influence me, he\'s a tough fighter when challanged, seen it in his wins.
Mike
Mike,
Good points. Perhaps you will share the secret on how to view horses through \"unbiased eyes\". I can be bitter and angry when a horse lets me down and have trouble getting over it... :)
Also agree on Materiality vs Frosted. Loved Materiality all spring and was disappointed when he drew inside Derby day and also when many on this board, specifically Jim Covello, posted about how multiple clockers had him working much worse than he was in Florida. That along with Pletcher\'s reputation with having MANY of his Derby runners \"over the top\" got me to drop him from an \"A\" to a \"B\" and made Firing Line my \"A\" for the Derby. Also no good, but I got a run for my money there.
Frosted easily 3rd most likely winner, just by default. I think there is some chance he \"trips out\" though. I can\'t get away from thinking Pletcher will have Johnny V. send Materiality and the two best horses, Materiality and AP hook up and somebody, likely Frosted, benefits from the better horses hooking up earlier.
The further problem is that I think you are off with your 6-1ish for Frosted. Will be VERY surprised if Frosted isn\'t 2nd choice, around 7-2 or 4-1.
Are there any offshore odds out there? If you read the press and even National TV, there is only 1 horse running in the race, AP..have him like 1-2 with the second choice like 5 or 6-1
Yes.
AP 4-5
Frosted 4-1
Materiality 6-1
Double digits the rest.
Do think AP goes off lower though now, especially with the field down to 8 horses