2014 Commissioner 2nd 28-1 Peter Pan 2nd
2014 Matterhorn 8th 41-1 Peter Pan 5th
2013 Palace Malice 1st 13-1 Derby 12th
2013 Revolutionary 5th 5-1 Derby 3rd
2013 Unlimited Budg 6th 14-1 Oaks 3rd
2013 Overanalyze 7th 10-1
2013 Midnignt Taboo 12th 30-1
2011 Stay Thirsty 2nd 16-1 Derby 12th
2010 Interactif 7th 20-1 Blue Grass 4th
2009 Dunkirk 2nd 9-2 Derby 11th (Ran big GP figs)
2008 Ready\'s Echo 3rd 29-1 Peter Pan 3rd
2007 Rags to Riches 1st 4-1 Oaks 1st
2006 Bluegrass Cat 2nd 9-2 Derby 2nd
2006 Sunriver 3rd 6-1
Dunkirk ran lights out in Florida a la Materiality. Peter Pan becoming a very serious prep for Toddy\'s non-Derby runners.
Thanks for that info.
Problem with Pletcho is picking which one of his entries to bet.
Not exactly a glowing report on 2 Pletchers this AM from Welsch:http://live.drf.com/nuggets/15705
Materiality backed up to the top of the stretch and galloped 1 3/4 miles. He did not get warm today as he did yesterday morning although he\'s not showing quite the same energy level he had on a regular basis at Churchill Downs the week prior to the Derby. Today was only his second day back galloping since his excellent work last Friday.
Carpe Diem, who can be a handful in the morning, jogged a mile the wrong way accompanied by Pletcher\'s stable pony, reversed direction and galloped a mile while showing little enthusiasm as he passed by the wire before pulling up after a mile on the clubhouse turn.
Underwhelmed by the Peter Pan 1-2 horses but would probably take CC since his owners willing to pay $75K to supplement. Horse may be getting right at long odds for a piece.
Pletcher does well with his Derby also-rans. One of those two probably hits the board.
That\'s potentially 2/3 of the tri right there. Maybe AP on Mubtaahij on top. Mub might go off at pretty long odds. I think he\'s the best play and value to win with his pedigree and running style if AP is over the top.
Using owner\'s willingness to pay a fee to enter, not a handicapping tool I would be using too often.....
Think the Peter Pan runners both have chances underneath. Trip over the track always an angle worth looking at.
Rob
Toppled,
I like Welsch a lot, but not sure about his reports this year with a couple of these. While others on this board reported that Materiality looked a bit off prior to the Derby, Welsch continued to glow about him, just casually mentioning that he was on the wrong lead in a work late.
Now, two days ago he anoints Materiality the biggest challenge after the \"sparkling work\", now says he doesn\'t have the same energy he had prior to Churchill (whereas the rest of the world seemed to have the horse a bit \"off\" prior to Churchill)
Conflicting reports are awful to interpret. At this point, Welsch is a \"toss\" for me, not sure about the horses though.........
Rob
Rob,
Skepticism always ok.Re Welsch(overall great imo)He hated Cali Chrome early last year as he did not know him well enough.
His first look at AP this year, he was underwhelmed by his physicality, then observing him work, he saw what others who know AP were wowing about.
All TAP\'s prospects were observed all winter long at PBD by Welsch, he knows them. His comment today re Mat and Carpe may reflect the aftermath of their recent works, some horses do not bounce out of works so easily.
As a general remark, there are dozens of horsemen and quite a few clockers at Belmont who have been observing the Belmont contenders(MAT,FROSTED, CARPE) and none that I know have been impressed by any of them(Madefromlucky has most fans re training)
Forgetting works and getting back to sheets/handicapping, I dont see any horse \"sitting\" on a big performance at 12f, do you?
Mike
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Forgetting works and getting back to
> sheets/handicapping, I dont see any horse
> \"sitting\" on a big performance at 12f, do you?
yes, Frosted
given 2 yr old top & 5 weeks since slight regression in derby after the neg 2 in Wood
but how many Belmont Breezes will need to be consumed before Rosario is keyed at single digit odds in this spot?
looking elsewhere for key..
THANKS Miff for all the updates and everyone else for the thoughtfull posts here!
Mike,
As for the question you asked, i don\'t see anybody sitting on a big performance. If American Pharaoh runs a race as good as his Derby or Preakness, I don\'t think he will be beat (figures aside, I think his Derby/Preakness were about the same from a racetrack performance perspective).
To be honest though, I sometimes handicap the Belmont a bit differently, because so few horses here are really bred to go 1 1/2 on dirt (because we have so few races carded so far). It is sort of like attrition, instead of looking for who is sitting on a big top or big performance, I am looking for who can run a representative race relative to their recent form. And as much as I seldom look at breeding in handicapping except for 1st time starters and 1st time grass, I do look at breeding for the Belmont. Whereas I think you can get milers or mile and 1/16 horses that are in peak shape to run well in the Derby or Preakness, I think the Belmont does separate the distance horses from the brilliant milers.
I have liked Materiality since he went by Stanford like he was standing still in that 1 1/8th race at Gulfstream. When he dug in and beat a solid horse like Upstart, in what I thought was the most impressive derby prep, it confirmed what I thought - that he was the real deal. Unlike others who think he ran well in the derby with a bad trip, I think he was just mediocre, but not awful. And I can give any horse on mulligan. Based on breeding, I think Materiality is as good or better than any in the field, with the exception of the Dubai horse, who looks slow to me (although hard to completely toss because the slower pace and grind of the Belmont may make him a plausible borderline contender).
I also don\'t love AP going 1 1/2. he fits the mold to me of the Sunday Silence type horse, which is a compliment, but fluid stride and acceleration are not things that make Belmont winners. I think Baffert is 10x the trainer Pletcher is in the Triple Crown, so I don\'t expect AP to have a Big Brown type performance, but I just don\'t see him winning on Saturday. I see a relatively fast pace, with at least one or two horses wanting to go to the front, so I don\'t see AP setting a galloping pace and drawing off. He will have to run early and late to win, and off the rough campaign, against some relatively fast horses, he feels like a play against.
figuring out who to key on is tricky. I will be on Materiality, but he can\'t be a \"stand\". Frosted is another fast contender. So, he can be used. I really think the other Pletcher (peter pan winner) is a slow slug, but I also think he is sitting on a \"big race\" for him, whether that is big enough to contend at all, is very questionable. No doubt in my mind he was a different horse in the Peter Pan. And 3 year olds coming to form have to be respected.
Great race. Great card (it appears to be).
No walkover for AP!
Rob
Ring
As for supplemental noms, in general, its prudent to keep an open mind. In this particular case its over six figures.
Also last week when you questioned Victor\'s decision making... well he\'s had a pretty good week in that capacity! bbb
BBB
Not a big believer in generalizations. Specifically, for triple crown races, what some rich owner is willing to to pay to enter a slow horse is not a relevant fact. If u think it is, i have a bridge to sell u.
As for victor. I stand by what I said. Not a thinking man\'s jockey. Sure, he had a few good rides this week. Doesn\'t make him a smart jockey. Chrome on the inside in the Belmont bad idea. He rode an Ellis horse naked teddys promise. Saw Ellis on TVG two races in a row talk about how he asked victor to get outside, that the horse can\'t run inside other horses. Both times, stuck on rail. Once, he directed the horse to the rail (not bad luck) Ellis, a mild mannered guy by all accounts, had a hard time containing himself.
Stevens epitome of a thinking man\'s jockey.
That is a high bar.
Rob
Welsch reported along these lines.
Another very ordinary day of gallops for the TAP contingent and Frosted, all just ok. Madefromlucky reported a little hot. Mutjahib worked again and was uninspiring.
Tale of Verve went nice.
Other observers much the same, very warm muggy conditions have some horses with their heads a little lower, not unusual on these days.
...nothing from nothing type day.
From a post a year ago on Steve Byk\'s website:
Victor Espinoza in dirt routes:
Since 1998:
Overall: 2,438 mounts, 19% wins, $2.11 ROI
Maiden races: 612 mounts, 18% wins, $2.03 ROI
Claiming races: 720 mounts, 21% wins, $2.09 ROI
Allowance races: 428 mounts, 17% wins, $2.21 ROI
Stakes races: 509 mounts, 18% wins, $2.13 ROI
Good data.
Food for thought.
Sometimes in this game I/we can over react to a few individual data points that skew our opinion. (bad beats, bad rides, etc)
Having an ROI over $2.00 for a significant sample size is very hard to achieve.
Doesn\'t change my view on AP, as the opinion wasn\'t built around Victor, but perhaps my broader comments about his decision making are harsh, relative to the results.
Rob
Listen, no being open minded on this site. Just make assertions and walk away.
I think you have your own board confused with the \"other\" board TGJB.
I am pretty sure that Len could convince Vito that Copernicus was wrong and the world is flat......
I could see the debate now. \"I am not a scientist, so I accept what science/Len tells me as fact is fact\".......
Rob
Worse. His position is \"I admit I don\'t know anything about the subject but I know I\'m right, and you\'re (fill in the blank for the name they\'re calling me that day)\".
There\'s an expression, arguing like a woman. As a guy whose girlfriend went to Yale I can tell you some girls don\'t. And some guys do.
Having said that, there\'s been an outbreak of unsupported assertions here recently...
Interesting assertion
Welsch:
Pretty much a routine morning for the first three Belmont contenders to train, MATERIALITY, CARPE DIEM and TALE OF VERVE.
Materiality and Carpe Diem did their usual things, the former galloping about a mile and five-eighths, the latter jogging a mile and galloping nearly a mile and one half. Carpe Diem had his best morning of the week and is scheduled to work tomorrow along with trainer Todd Pletcher\'s other Belmont contenders, Materiality and Madeforlucky.
Tale of Verve, like Carpe Diem, jogged a mile the wrong way accompanied by the outrider, stood for several minutes at the seven furlong pole, then reversed direction and galloped a mile while well in hand and wanting to do more as he passed by the wire, pulling up shortly thereafter, this coming a day after blowing out impressively for trainer Dallas Stewart on Wednesday. His final Belmont prep is scheduled for the weekend.
Only two Belmont starters came out to train after the renovation break, the venerable MUBTAAHIJ and FROSTED. Mubtaahij jogged seven furlongs, galloped about a mile out past the middle of the track with his rider having her feet in the dashboard as they came by the wire. Frosted just another very leisurely gallop today, about a mile and 5/8\'s, in preparation for his scheduled work on Friday. MADEFROMLUCKY had a change in venue today, going to the training track to gallop earlier this morning.
Welsch:
CARPE DIEM and MADEFROMLUCKY worked in company, neither all that impressive this morning. Both horses got hot in the warm up, Carpe Diem backing up with the pony, jockey John Velazquez aboard. The duo broke off almost on top of the half-mile pole with \"Lucky\" nearest the rail. The two were well held through early splits of 13.03, 24.58 , changed leads on cue, then began to separate near mid-stretch with Carpe Diem edging clear about a length to a length and one half while drifting some to the wire after a half in 47.70 and Madeforlucky under pressure trying to keep pace. Velazquez quickly straightened Carpe Diem out at the wire, after which he continued to hold the edge, finishing willingly under just a hint of urging, completing the five furlong drill an eighth mile past the wire in 1:00.23 with Madeforlucky about two lengths back in 1:00.64. The team continued out six furlongs in 1:13.85 and 1:14.05 respectively.
Mike,
Seems Welsch liked Frosted best today. Not impressed with Materiality either.
I don\'t make bets on works, at least not with experienced horses, but it sure seems like things are lining up for AP to get this Triple Crown, based on the works, at least.
As somebody who wants to bet horizontally and maybe vertically with MAteriality (and Frosted), I sure wish Materiality would be a bit more impressive pre-race.
On the bright side, for those that don\'t wager or watch the NY circuit, Pletcher winning with everything. Red hot.
Rob
It\'s interesting that Pletcher is back to working Carpe Diem in company again after babying him for a month leading up to the Derby and working him alone at Keenland. That seemed to backfire as the colt came up empty with no excuses that I could see (other than maybe being on a deeper rail for first part of race) after a mile with a good trip in Louisville. Ran like a short horse.
Will be interesting to see how he and others come out of their final works. AP by all accounts looking very well at CD. But Chrome last year looked pretty good training until about Thurs before Belmont and then started to show signs of tailing off. It\'s not just the works the matter.
Rob,
Saw that,it seems to most watching that none of these horses are anything but ok.Materiality gets beat pretty often in the am and Stanford is no slouch and a good worker, dont think that means much.
Very subtle works, inside of horses for Materiality and Frosted tells me trainers working them a bit out of their comfort zones,which is outside in the clear, esp Frosted who was a bit rank early in both the Wood and Derby resenting hard hold/or kick back(watch)
AP floating like a butterfly on the CD feeds looking great so far.Weighed in 1,186lbs matching his weight pre Ark Derby. Baffert very candid, expects AP to run well but readily admits no way to know if he will handle 12f, believes fluid gait will give AP a better chance to go longer than he would normally expect.Inferred AP not going to be ridden cute, going for it(assume that means he\'s going to try to wire or sit right up close, no real surprise)
PP\'s/sheets show main contenders coming off just ok type performances which affirms to me that its more AP\'s race to lose, still dont buy any of these horses are outrunning him near his best.
Mike
I read on Pull the Pocket that Carpe Diem may have bled in the Derby.
http://pullthepocket.blogspot.com/2015/05/big-days-mo-money-and-poltics.html
Haven\'t heard this at all. Can anyone verify?
I have it on good authority it\'s not true.
That\'s my assumption too
More than one observer of Carpe Diem during his recent training thought he may not run in the Belmont.Rogu-ish type gets out frequently and gets hot in am/parading. TAP/Walden would not run if horse wasn\'t ok but the derby performance was so weak, gotta wonder if Carpe scoped dirty or something was bothering him.Still wonder if Johnny V rides Carpe or Mat, assuming he still has a choice.
TAP remarked pre derby that Capre has good gate speed and would be forwardly placed, expecting same in Belmont.From what connections say, looks like AP, Mat,Carpe first flight with Frosted closer this time in second flight, slugs in the back.
AP and Mat have never let a horse pass them once they were challenged,a great hook up possible between these two.
Why was Materialitys head turned slightly sideways during his routine work with Carpe yesterday? He was wheezing pretty bad and very washy coming off the track after a routine gallop on the Wednesday before Derby. And I guess the assumption is now that with the 5 weeks off he is right back to his Florida Derby effort? He has had basically one race in 8 weeks so I guess any type of effort is possible. But the prevailing assumptions seem to be that all the competition is going to come in here run some sort of giant effort and American Pharoah will look like a underweight shaggy State Fair Pony when he takes to the track.
Go look it up in the Archives here. BOTH Silver Charm and Real Quiet got BACK to their 3 year old TOPS in the Belmont. Point Given ran a 2 point New Top and Bayern at least 2 and maybe 3 pt new top. The last two horses went seriously negative. Baffert will have this horse ready!
If you cant take the short price on AP then its understandable. Then don\'t use him in your Pick 3\'s, 4\'s or even 6. American Pharoah is still the horse to beat.
Silver
Careful with the misinformation. Game hard enough without weeding through that.
Materiality didn\'t work in company with carpe dieM.
As for your comment about everybody lining up to bet against AP and expecting everybody else to run huge. Way out of line. AP gonna be 4/5 or lower. Hardly an underdog. Some are willing to bet against him firing big for the 4th time in 8 weeks and expecting materiality or frosted to run back to their tops.
Hyperbole this time of year a bit rampant..
Rob
Thanks for the correction it was Madefromlucky so I gladly stand corrected. BTW I do believe someone just posted a blog that Carpe bleed in the Derby. Which was quickly corrected just as I gladly said I was.
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/92241/carpe-diem-madefromlucky-work-in-company
I think the board traffic has been pretty balanced, with people able to
separate wanting to beat AP and at the same time enjoying his obvious talent.
As the combative Billy Martin once said in a memorable Lite Beer ensemble
commercial, I feel very strongly both ways.
As I have stated, my belief is that AP does not have some of the obvious fatal
flaws which hampered Smarty Jones and Big Brown. Baffert and Espinoza know the
territory and I am not even going to second guess BB\'s decision not to give AP
more acclimation time at Belmont.
The whole question of his ability to deliver another knockout punch, his
fourth in 85 days, is what makes the race bettable.
The second tier (The Pletchers, Frosted) have shown flashes of brilliance, the
sort of brilliance AP has shown in 6 of 7 career races. Looking at things one
week out, looking at The Pletchers and Frosted\'s previous races, looking at
their TGs and PPs, reading about the way they are preparing in the AM, do you
have the confidence that one or any of these will show up ready to run their
\"A\" race?
I do not, but figure to have them in some horizontal wagers. As has been
mentioned, KMac and especially TAP have been on fire going back to about April
1
The second and a half tier is one horse, the deKock runner, who lost some
passengers from the bandwagon off the Derby journey. That is not a bandwagon I
ever even kicked the tires on, and won\'t get near now. He is in tier 2-1/2 on
the possibility that his Meydan performance was the best race by any dirt 3Y0
not named AP.
The remainder of the field is third tier, Saravas, Commendables, Da Taras all.
From the DRF
ELMONT, N.Y. - The prospective field for the Belmont Stakes on Saturday is now down to eight after Todd Pletcher said Monday that Carpe Diem would not run. The Truth or Else was withdrawn earlier Monday morning by his trainer, Ken McPeek.
Pletcher said Carpe Diem would point to the Haskell or the Jim Dandy later this summer.
Pletcher still has two other runners in the Belmont - Materiality and Madefromlucky. John Velazquez is reunited with Materiality, whom he had ridden to victories in all three of his starts prior to the Kentucky Derby, while Javier Castellano will ride Madefromlucky, Pletcher said.
Velazquez chose to ride Carpe Diem in the Derby, so Castellano ended up on Materiality in the Derby. Castellano won the Peter Pan on Madefromlucky in his last start.
Any chance Pletcher enters Stanford?