Has anyone heard of any pre-race problems, including in the paddock or going to and in the gate, that might have caused his poor performance in the Derby? Any excuse at all, or is he an automatic toss?
The biggest pre-race problem occurred at the draw. A really bad post position hurt him. If Johnny V gets off him for Materiality, I\'d take that as a negative. He\'s going to be on or close to the pace in a relatively paceless race, that\'s never an automatic toss.
Well, I can\'t see how the 2 hole hurt him.
Here are my trip notes for the race:
Good break without much trouble under a good hold, very eager maybe even fighting the jock, taken back into a pocket forming around him, 1W, \"turned on\" entering the back stretch, taken off rail to 3 or 4 path and clear, chasing 3W, one paced around turn and came up empty entering top of the stretch, despite steady urging, fell back steadily.
Trip was perfect.
Draw no problem. Could have been, like it was for materiality, but carpe dieM got out well, tucked in behind the speed.
Considering the trip, a disgusting performance. No excuses.
That said, I am shocked that Pletcher is running him back in the Belmont. Off the derby run, he had the look of one of the many that he freshens up for the summer.
I am intrigued that he is going to run and probably have to use him as a \"C\" since before the derby he seemed to be poised for a good run and maybe he gets a mulligan (churchill track?)
But this is coming from somebody that plays mostly horizontal and won\'t have a nickel on AP.
Rob
Didn\'t Palace Malice run in the derby? First time blinkers?
Rob,
I have to disagree with the observation of a perfect trip. The look on TAP\'s face when the 2 hole was picked for him said it all!
If you recall pre derby posts Silver Charm and I were both very high on this colt coming into the derby off a pair and was patiently handled with the first Saturday in May the obvious objective. All out the window and I completely tossed him with the exception of the 4th spot on some super tickets.
Carpe Diem has had a history of being a bit high strung in the paddock and not very patient in the gate. He had a very long time in the starting gate and all JV could do was to send him against horses with much more natural speed than he.
IMHO he was forced to run too fast early and taken way out of his comfort zone while in the middle of a herd. I look at his derby at not much more than a 6f work.
What is interesting is TGJB possibly adding 2 points to his Tampa Derby; he now enters the derby off an 0-2 as opposed to a pair? Either way the derby was his X for sure. This one has a perfect style for big sandy and can click off 12 quarters all day.
I think he is a major player here and very capable of running a negative number. AP can pair his Preakness and get beat in this race for sure with some fast fresh horses certainly capable of landing below the Brown line. ( Mendoza just didn\'t seem to fit in there)
Good luck,
Frank D.
Carpe got out clean in the Derby from the same 4 hole that Super Saver won from.. Carpe Was in perfect position going down the back stretch and faded.
Biggest thing going against Carpe or any Pletcher horse come Derby Day is Pletcher..
For what ever reason it is what it is.
All 3 Pletcher horses are live for the Belmont..
Frank,
We will agree to disagree as to the derby run for carpe dieM. Agree for sure that Pletcher didn\'t want the inside at the draw. But Johhny V gave him a perfect ride from the draw.
Very hard for me to say he was too close to a fast pace when the pace horses ran 1-2-3 and nobody except frosted and maybe materiality closed at all. (My view he that he was where he needed to be to win)
That said, whichever one of us is right about the derby, doesn\'t take away from the fact that he should be \"live\" for the Belmont. Still has the beautiful 2 year old foundation and a couple good races before rhe crap out in the derby. He seems to have that long smooth stride that is usually effective in the Belmont. He is more of a galloped than an accelerator.
I will be very curious as to rider assignments. Does Johnny V keep the faith. Would Javier actually pick the improving but slow Peter pan winner over the faster but maybe over the top materiality?
Rob
Many good horses, with good patterns run poorly in the Derby. Sometimes its the PP, trip, pace.
Other times, we have absolutely no idea why it happened. It just happened.
Many bounce back with a very good Preakness and/or Belmont. Some of them had pp/trip/pace issues in the Derby, some didn\'t.
I wouldn\'t worry too much about why Carpe Diem ran like he did. He has many things going for him, and I also agree that he will be a major player in the Belmont.
From Bloodhorse:
Carpe Diem, who won the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (gr. I), got away from his inside post position in good shape but was no factor through the stretch.
\"He came out of it very well. The outcome was disappointing. He put himself in perfect position. He got a perfect trip, but I never felt truly confident watching him that he was handling the surface as well as he has others,\" Pletcher said. \"Despite that he seemed to be fighting on until the end and wasn\'t beaten too far.\"
Read more on BloodHorse.com: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/91837/pletcher-considers-preakness-stakes-options#ixzz3bBPXo4Yr