Figures for the weekend in Baltimore are in ROTW.
And the plot thickens....
Thinking the Belmont field may grow a little larger now.
Very, very interesting! Still can\'t get over that jumpup by Verve.
Is it Belmont Day, yet.
Thanks for posting, TGJB.
Hear Rags had AP like TG 3 also backing up like 2.75 from his derby.Three fig makers have AP backing up about 2.50+ points, 2 other fig makers have AP close to pairing the derby.
If that\'s really true about Jakefigs it\'s amazing. They have a natural fit pairing the winner and DR to their last-- assuming they got the ground right this time.
Didn\'t want to get into the weeds on this but they were framed into what they did for the Derby by having a couple of horses too wide (and we went back and checked). Because of that, going the other way would have forced them to give several new tops out to also-rans, so they went the way they did, which if their ground had been right would have been the correct thing to do.
If you\'re right about the way Jake/Len did the Preakness I can only guess they tied it to other races, which under the circumstances would be truly unbelievable. But since they won\'t post the whole day and the lemmings won\'t ask (and wouldn\'t get an answer if they did) we\'ll never know.
Are we measuring the horses effort/performance or the final time of a race? Are they the same or is there a difference?
I heard the fig was Rags 6.5
Correct me if I\'m wrong but I think 4 horses ran a top in the Derby and 6 paired. Isn\'t that very unexpected for a Derby. 10 of 18 paired or ran tops.
But in the Preakness only 1 horse ran a top and 1 paired out of 8. Verve is getting s top no matter what you do with race but why not Divining Rod? Seems like he ran a big one.
So now AP pattern sets up for the obvious bounce but if he had run 6 lengths faster, we should be less concerned?
TGJB Wrote:
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> Figures for the weekend in Baltimore are in ROTW.
What do we make of the top three horses bearing out? Is it possible if you ran on a track like that in circumstances like that you either end up slowing down or bearing out if you ran fast? Normally, I would view the \"bo\" as a real sign of trouble coming. However, maybe the \"bo\" not as meaningful if it happened under extreme conditions and happened to all horses who ran fast enough to beat a 6?
First of all, the Derby had 10 more horses, and the Preakness was run in a monsoon, which makes it more likely some horses will just spit it out (especially on 2 weeks rest). You won\'t find too many figure makers (or handicappers) who think lots of horses will run better than ever under those circumstances.
Second, I think we discussed this after the Derby. The only other way of doing it would have had NO horses running new tops, based on the more than one point definition used in the studies. So either way it would have come up a little out of the norm, better or worse.
From a figure making point of view, horses pairing tops is a good thing. If you can show me a way to pair more of them in the Preakness I would love to see it.
None bore in where it is presumably wetter and deeper.
It\'s now posted on their site, yes, 6 1/2. I have their sheets for that race (and day), it\'s straight up figure making malpractice. Amazing.
I watched the replay multiple times and I just don\'t see anything that justified the \"bore out\" designation.
The competition got so bored watching his tail, they all checked out.
TGJB wrote: But since they won\'t post the whole day and the lemmings won\'t ask (and wouldn\'t get an answer if they did) we\'ll never know.
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One man\'s transparency is another\'s humiliation.
Charts say it was slight.
Watching the head on it was much less than the 2nd and 3rd horses.
Maybe a path to a path and a half and more gradual than sudden.
Jock was hitting him right handed which maybe kept it from being more.
I could see just giving the BO to Tale of Verve and Divining Rod but that was still a taxing effort for AP despite the margin at the end.
The hysteria of two voices has started over there. They are counting their money from BEL verticals absent AP due to his big backward move in the Preakness . Camp Ramadi.
So Jerry, why can you not have AP pairing up or going forward? FL, Mr Z, Bod, DM and even Dort\'s #\'s seem to be irrelevant non efforts for differing reasons.
TOV jump up and his # can be anything so why can\'t DR have run a new top? Is that the Tampa issue?
Could be Victor only hit him once right handed to keep him straight then just showed him the whip the rest of the way.It\'s difficult to tell.
Entire field was pretty gassed though.
So, AP blitzed the Preakness field and wowed a lot of people, while seemingly only ran a pretty good derby.
But it is a 3 point backward move..
This is exactly what I posted about when big brown went \"backward\" in his preakness.
Maybe an easy read. Horse regressing and a bet against?
I am betting against, but not because the Preakness was a regression. So, what we are saying is that instead winning by 6+ lengths, AP would have had to win by 12+ lengths, to pair up and look good or at least better in the Belmont.
I think this is where some people \"mentally adjust figures\" because of the way they were earned. Non Kool-aid drinkers? I would argue that the negative 3 was overstated, that ground less tracking two speed horses and sitting in the catbirds seat, is comfortable ground loss and while mathematically correct, overstate the figure. And a blitzkrieg wire to wire score through wicked early fractions gets an understated figure because of the lack of ground loss and no points for setting the wicked pace. And if there was such a thing as a \"performance figure\" that took the TG figure and adjusted for pace and trip, the derby and preakness were relative pair ups.
A little sheets heresy. I know.
But this board has few lemmings and open thoughts.
Rob
Yes Yes Yes.
The ground loss issue becomes more and more suspect not just between the two races but in general. If only because it is such simplistic old thinking.
Rob,
I don\'t think your line of thinking is crazy at all.
Making that Preakness figure was difficult, making the Belmont a tough read for AP.
I think you just play against the obvious favorite, and not worry about his figure at all. If he beats you he beats you. His Preakness figure won\'t change the decision on whether or not to play against him next race.
unless there\'s a horse that will run ~neg 2 he\'s winning the Triple Crown!!
I\'m not sure how one scores that race at all. I don\'t think the Speed Figure made by anyone for this race has much intrinsic value. How can one say this or that is the figure with any high degree of reliability?
What figures seem at least as important are these:
Final Time: 1:58:46
Final Quarter 27:72
Penultimate Quarter 26:32
Firing Line Eased
Dortmund X
AP Bear Out
Bob Baffert: Loopy as ever talking about his tired horse
I have no idea how to use this race in a Pattern Read. This is a race about consequences.
miff Wrote:
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> Hear Rags had AP like TG 3 also backing up like
> 2.75 from his derby.Three fig makers have AP
> backing up about 2.50+ points, 2 other fig makers
> have AP close to pairing the derby.
How about this for a view through rose colored glasses.
In Kentucky AP spotted two top notch speed balls (who ran their guts out) a six length lead and ran them down on their best effort and With such a slow pace that no other horses could keep up or finish.
Immediately doomsdayers reported AP crawled on his belly across the line, lost weight and appeared death warmed over days later. Baffert says AP is happy and doing fine.
At Pimlico AP ran the competition off their feet, in the first mile the race was over. He didn\'t need to rush home, he wasn\'t whipped 32 times to encourage. Of course I saw Victor doing a handstand and flips in the saddle the last 1/16.
Baffert says he wants the Belmont track to be Secretariat like. His loopy way of saying you have not seen AP\'s best yet and he might win by 20. While some still insist/hope he is over the top exhausted and the really good ones will finally get a fair shot.
Of course AP is a bet against. Of course it is the only conclusion right brainers can land on, Of course I and others like me are biased. The difference being I know I\'m biased. Although there was value in MD for the imaginative. I\'m going with MUB to win and under AP @ Bel because I\'ve always believed stamina wins marathons. Brilliance wins at lesser distances.
I\'ve gotten over excited again. Limit Out! Curious To see where the conversation is next week be back then after terrorizing some other board (auto racing?) for a while.
If Man Of Quality competes this week @ Del or nearby give his last race video replay a second look.
With you on Mub\'s chances to run big at Bel, Tavasco. Think he hits the tri. I will have an exacta box that uses MUB, AP, and MAT
Leamas
\"You can\'t go by any figures ...because it was one thing. But I know AP ran faster than he did in the Kentucky Derby. You know he really...he ran a fast race.\"
Baffert
Clocker Grening:
MUBTAAHIJ, who finished 8th in the Kentucky Derby, just blew out a swift three furlongs in 36.02 seconds on my watch over the Belmont main track, going his final quarter in 22.83 seconds after an opening eighth in 13.19 seconds. He galloped out four furlongs in 47.88 seconds and five-eighths in 1:02.94.
While he was being asked to finish, it was far from an all-out move. He also did the with very little pre-work activity.
Along with his stablemate Umgiyo, Mubtaahij came through the paddock and jogged back to the 4 1-2-furlong pole. They quickly turned around, with Umgiyo doing a similar piece of work -- which I did not time -- before Mubtaahij did his.
This work came just three days after he breezed five furlongs in 1:01 on the turf.
Thanks for that, Miff. This horse has magic written all over him for me-which means that I am processing a lot of pieces of information that I couldn\'t necessarily put into a bullet list. Among them, though, are probably breeding, training, and a high cruising speed that he can run at for a long way.
It\'s a little like AK was when he won: you had to accept the post (16) and the surface switch. This guy has knocks on him, sure. But he\'s adjusted, fresh and you might get a premium for the name. Most horse bettors are probably xenophobic. Okay, I\'m not entirely serious about that last remark...
Then he gets the best jock in New York.
Leamas
Euro bounce.