American Phar
Materiality
Carpe Diem
Madefromlucky
Frosted
Muqtajib
Tale Of Verve
Frammento
Keens Ice
Materiality, frosted and carpe dieM are a solid triumvirate.
There can be no crowing about lack of competition if AP beats that field.
Think the order will be a bit too tall for him, but that is a race I am already looking forward to.
Rob
Materiality holds the key. Probably the only horse who can out sprint AP early. Otherwise its AP\'s race to lose.
They will probably scrap up one or two more for this field because there will be some people who say they just want to be there. Its becoming a big weekend 3-day spectacle now and NYRA does deserve some credit for that. The undercard will once again like last year be awesome. No rain please!!!!
Mr. Z surely deserves a chance.....
That seems to be the consensus except AP drubbed all of them in the derby.Much made of Materiality\'s early trouble but afterwards he made little impact, pretty much the same for Frosted. Both internals weak vs AP\'s in Derby.
Baffert thinks AP wins Belmont if he can repeat either his Derby or Preakness but admitted a tall order.
Miff,
To each his own view, but IMHO materiality being A serious threat to AP has nothing to do with the derby. I am a believer that when a speed horse blows a start, I really don\'t care how he runs the rest of the race. When the race is the derby and he blows the start, even more so. To me, the reason materiality has a strong shot are the races before the derby. Florida derby was fast on all figs and he beat a good horse and did it the right way. He ran two 1 1/8 races really and is well bred for the Belmont distance, if such a thing exists with the current breed. He gets rest and as much as I hate to say it, the Belmont is the race Pletcher gets his horses to run in.
To a lesser degree, race dynamics make frosted a contender. Materiality can\'t let AP get too loose. He will have to attend the pace. Pletcher has a history of believing the Belmont is best run on or near the lead. Palace malice pushed a fast pace. Commissioner, a slow horse at the time, pushed the pace. Further back, Pletcher had Dunkirk, another non speed horse on the lead. Frosted would be the beneficiary if the pace got a bit hot. (At least the fastest of the potential beneficiaries)
Fascinating race.
Rob
Belmont has not been to kind to closers lately..
Rob,
Being bred for a distance means little to me. Materiality\'s furthest win was 1 1/8th, his derby performance common,trouble or not. If Materiality is one dimensional speed(don\'t buy that) then why isn\'t he a perfect target for AP, already proven at longer distances than any other entrant.
If I\'m gonna look to beat AP it\'s because of regression, none of these are outrunning AP if he shows up near his best at 12f.
Next 3 weeks pretty key for contenders. TAP\'s Belmont trainees not exactly wowing observers right now.
Mike
Miff
We will agree to disagree. Materiality not one dimensional speed. A stalker/pace presser. Blows start in 18 horse field and was at back of pack turning for home, not where a pace presser wants to be. U want to use that as assessment of his 1 1/4 capabilities, so be it. He gets a mulligan here.
Not training or looking well before the race a different story. That would be a problem.
Felt before derby that materiality florida derby win was most impressive and fastest of prep races.
Price will be right. Have to play him.
Good luck
Rob
Assuming that\'s the field, my hunch is that TAP sends Carpe Diem to the lead. AP tracks with Materiality not far off of him.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Out sprint the freak for the lead? Zero chance. bbb
BBB,
There is no sprinting to the lead in the Belmont. Pretty sure any horse being sent can make the lead. (Commissioner cut it last year)
It is a different kind of race. Jockeys and trainers know it.
Tactics will be very interesting.
Let\'s just hope they all run. Word is Kiaran may be changing his mind on frosted. Which would be disappointing. He is an interesting horse in the race, whether u like him or not.
Rob
Ring wrote
\"Word is Kiaran may be changing his mind on frosted\"
Because he\'s another horse out of the derby that is not impressing anyone watching him at Belmont. Frosted very average looking physically, would not be shocked if he did not go in Belmont, hope he does as he looks a key player.Wonder if the Wood was his 15 minutes of fame.
Everyone aiming at Pharoah being knocked out but it seems none of the Derby runners have come out too well except Pharoah.Contenders training at Belmont are not exactly full of beans right now but 3 weeks could change that as most being trained easy.
Belmont distance has been somewhat a haven for slugs and there are quite a few in this years race, Frammento, Tale Of Verve, Keen Ice, Muqtajib, Madefromlucky(that\'s the super!)
Keen Ice would be the slug that finds his way onto my tickets.
Best sheet for a new top and enough trouble in the Derby to cost him a check for 5th.
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Belmont distance has been somewhat a haven for
> slugs and there are quite a few in this years
> race,
A few have actually won the race. It\'s not exactly \"last horse standing\" because some stellar horses have won, but as you suggest, many find their way into the verticals.
are these the same sources that told you american pharoah looked like \"death\" on friday?
Our,
Read it again, carefully,re American Pharoah. Those were rumors, those watching the horses train at Belmont do it every day and only say what they see.
Mike
According to the demographics of Long Island, those sources most likely belong to two ethnic groups,neither of which have histories as glorious horsemen.
There is a Hungarian club on East 82nd street - go ask one of those dudes to be your physicality expert.
Give me a \"Hülegü with the Works\" and I am a lifelong customer.
Prefer Brunowiththeworks!
asking an Italian what he thinks about a horse is like asking an American what he thinks about paying for something without a credit card
Don\'t get the Italian thing but work reports have become very important to a fair number of gamblers.
Instead of continuing your bigoted unfunny spew, why not look up the
accomplishments of Hirsch Jacobs and Walter Blum. Nick Zito isn\'t what he used to
be, but he and the late Johnny Campo forgot more about horses than you will ever
know.
I\'m sure if I want the lowdown on a crippled carriage horse with a flowerpot on
its head, I\'ll be sure to head to that Hungarian club on the UES.
And by the way, both of my paternal grandparents emigrated from Hungary.
If you ever owned a horse, the description of your jockey\'s raiment in the program
might be as follows: White robe, pointed cap, \"KKK\" emblem.
i didnt know that Hulegu Khan was a member of the aryan race?
sounds like one of those theories promoted by the Arrow cross party in Hungary from the 1930s
You never heard of Overdose, the Hungarian Seabiscuit?
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/20/world/europe/20hungary.html?_r=0
Egészségedre!
The fate of this entire thread is hanging by a... thread.
Miff,
I do believe there are a number of people who are \"aiming at American Pharaho being knocked out\" and therefore gonna just wager against him.
I guess this is where I draw a significant difference between this Belmont and the one with Big Brown. Big Brown couldn\'t lose that Belmont unless he X\'ed and didn\'t run. IMO a bet against him was just a bet hoping he would fall apart and be off the board because of the grind of the campaign, foot problems, etc.etc. Personally, I can\'t make those kind of bets. (not saying there is anything wrong with them, sounds like TGJB did, boxing the whole field except him and the winner). Bu i can\'t.
But in this Belmont, AP can run a good race and lose. (again my opinion). I haven\'t read any credible attack anywhere that says the TG negative 2 or the Beyer 110 figure for Materiality in the florida Derby wasn\'t a real number or is questionable. AP hasn\'t run a Beyer like that yet and his big TG fig Derby was a bit ground loss loaded off a comfortable stalking trip off of two speeds. I get your view that Materiality\'s DEerby was \"common\". And I agree it was. But I am giving a mulligan off the bad start and off the 5 weeks rest into the belmont, if he trains well, he is a serious contender. Frosted, who ran his big figure in the Wood, is again, almost as fast as AP. I am more skeptical of Frosted, particularly because I am less comfortable with the Wood figure (not saying anybody got it wrong, but the second place horse was a bit of a slug, whereas in the florida Derby Materiality was putting away a fast horse in Upstart, who was on the better part of the track that day - despite Rick Violette\'s whining about the trip).
Now, you want to add in the conspiracy factor and that Pletcher will have 3 horses, two of which are capable of pushing a pace and we get the possibility of a Smarty like Belmont.....
I am not a conspiracy theory guy, but it would not poor tactics by Pletcher to send one and have other sit right off. (talking Materiality and Carpe Diem)
Rob
Baltimore Sun:
So, Bob Baffert, what kind of track surface would you prefer for the Belmont Stakes on June 6?
\"I want the same track Secretariat had,\" he joked on a humid Sunday morning just outside the Pimlico stakes barn. \"Give me a Secretariat track. I\'ll take that.\"
Of course, Baffert was referring to the 1973 Triple Crown champion who won the Belmont by a mind-boggling 31 lengths.
The 62-year-old trainer will try for an unprecedented fourth time to sweep the Derby, Preakness and Belmont, while jockey Victor Espinoza will be the first rider with a third chance to pull off the feat.
All seemed well with the Triple Crown hopeful. The ear plugs? Still in.
\"He looks fine. He\'s a little quiet. He\'s a little tired, like he\'s supposed to be after a race,\" Baffert said after he and Espinoza appeared on the \"Today Show.\" \'\'That\'s usually him. Health-wise he looks good. No changes. No surprises.\"
Baffert said American Pharoah would be sent to Churchill Downs on Monday for a week of rest and relaxation and resume training at the Louisville, Kentucky, track before traveling to New York. His arrival date is scheduled for Wednesday, June 3.
\"It\'s hard for me to imagine I\'m going through this again,\" said Baffert, back in the Triple chase for the first time in 13 years, when War Emblem lost his chance when he stumbled at the start of the Belmont and finished eighth. \"I can\'t believe this is the fourth time I\'m doing this, and how lucky I\'ve been.
\"All I can do is rely on my experience going to the next one. I know what to expect; I know how difficult it is. With a horse like this it makes my job a lot easier. You see the way he moves. He just floats. He\'s effortless.\"
American Pharoah won the Preakness by seven lengths over a sloppy track in a driving rainstorm. Baffert\'s take? \"He\'s by Pioneerof the Nile, and it was like he was running in the Nile.\"
The track was drenched. Baffert said jockey Gary Stevens, who was aboard seventh-place finisher Firing Line, told him with all the water in his boots and soaked into his saddle pad, he weighed 135 pounds after the race. With equipment and rider, horses carry 126 pounds for the Preakness.
While American Pharoah is scheduled for the Belmont, Baffert said the colt has to be perfectly sound before making the trip to New York.
\"Everything has gone really smooth, other than that hiccup in the Breeders\' Cup,\" Baffert said, referring to a leg injury that kept American Pharoah out of the BC Juvenile. \"So we just got to keep our fingers crossed, keep him healthy and keep him happy. I don\'t want to go up there with a tired horse. Right now, he\'s tired. He went through a lot with that rain and all that and still doing what he did carrying a lot of weight. He just showed what a special horse he is.\"
Dortmund, American Pharoah\'s stablemate, is headed for a break after finishing fourth. So will third-place finisher Divining Rod.
...
The Belmont field will likely include a group of Derby also-rans who skipped the Preakness.
Among them are Frosted (fourth), Materiality (sixth), Keen Ice (seventh), Mubtaahij (eighth), Carpe Diem (10th) and Frammento (11th). Also probable is Peter Pan Stakes winner Madefromlucky.
\"I understand,\" Baffert said of the potential spoilers. \"It just shows the respect they have for American Pharoah. It\'s something you can\'t control. You have to earn it, just like he earned it in the weather yesterday. I\'ve seen a lot of great horses leave here and (lose) in the Belmont — Smarty Jones, Big Brown, Real Quiet, Silver Charm, Funny Cide. I\'ll Have Another (in 2012). You just don\'t know.\"
Rob,
Not a reasonable take imo.I seriously doubt that different owners of Pletcher would consider or allow such a conspiracy.Would love to be present when TAP tells Elliot Walden that Carpe is a rabbit for Belmont.
The only one who trained \"well\"out of the derby was Materiality, then Pletcher backed off the Preak to wait for the Belmont with his big/fast well bred horse.
Frosted, by my sheet interpretation, is not in the same area code with AP or even Materiality ability wise, I know the figs well and what they seem to indicate.Dont think Frosted could ever outrun either one of those without a highly favorable set up, all at their best.
Lastly on Materiality, who says the sharp quick ascendency to his loffy figs didn\'t knock him out. Your mulligan in the derby is maybe a bit generous if you look at his internals which come up very weak(trouble start noted).
Tricky stuff,really knowing how well a horses is doing. After Upstart got over being ill, he trained like a wild horse, Violette told several NY trainers he expected a lights out performance from Upstart.
In the end,Belmont, often enough, not about who\'s fast, so beware the slugs.
Good Luck
Mike
Mike,
Agreed on \"rabbit\". I said I am not a conspiracy theory guy. But I do doubt that Pletcher tells both jockeys to go for the lead. Watch Dortmund\'s early ride in the Preakness. It turned out irrelevant as AP dusted them, but Garcia asked for speed, then quickly backed off and drifted into the center of the track, as if to take the rest of the field wide. (as it turns out, nobody was there to be taken wide, Firing Line was disgusting, stumble or not)
As for Materiality being \"over the top\". Absolutely, a strong possibility. It becomes about numbers for me. AP figures 1-2 or so, not just in the win pool, but in the horizontals (which is where I mostly play). I think Materiality is 5-1 or so in both pools - will know more when the field is finalized and we see the Brooklyn - Belmont double pool on the Friday before). 50 cents on the dollar vs 5 dollars on the dollar. I don\'t think AP is 10 times more likely than Materiality to win. What percentage chance do you give that AP backs up, that Materiality is \"over the top\", etc.etc.
As for Frosted, I like him less. But he is fast. His Remsen was good. The tricky part IMO with him is that you have to really REACH for excuses this year to read his pattern. First time out, he looked like a horse that was prepping and a bit short. I went \"all in\" on him second time out. Turning for home, I would have accepted 3-5 on him, as Ortiz was handriding. Then absolutely empty. Maybe he lost air. At least the connections thought so. They perform the surgery. He runs a negative 2 in the Wood. A big \"jump up\", but not so much relative to the Remsen. Then the Derby. The only horse running late as we get a boat race. Have to admit, I like his finish less than a lot of other people do. But he did finish a bit.
To me, Frosted is the saver for a pace collapse. Collapse, meaning not necessarily a vicious pace, but one that is too fast for the distance.
I can only play \"press Materiality, save Frosted\".
Slugs beat me.
Rob
You don\'t have to reach for anything if you believe Frosteds Wood figure. Big race, small bounce, 5 weeks rest. For what it\'s worth a lot of people didn\'t like the way he was training up to the Derby and he ran pretty well.
\"Slugs beat me\'
..ha, my gambling mantra, except for a distance like the Belmont where brilliance does not seem nearly as important as it does in races at normal distances.
War Story and Conquest Curlinate just entered the Belmont. Owner of War Story says his horse going to front, prediction will run last.
m., if you quote available news articles, is it perhaps relevant also that clement stated, in an article from today or yesterday on bloodhorse (im a common proletariat -- have no sources/inside information whatsover and can only go by public information) that, to paraphrase, he wished that he had a horse for the belmont and explicitly mentioned frosted, contrary to your long island sources?
If one could book the opinion of every horse trainer, they\'d have to rent space in Fort Knox to house all the money.
m., 100% agree and thats why i recommend that you give your sources in baltimore as a retirment gift bifocals and an edition of the egyptian book of the dead so that they know what \"death\" and \"skin and bones\" looks like on the physical level.
You need to pay closer attention.
closer attention to what m. stated are \"rumours\"? if their truth value is 0, why even mention them.
For the same reason I mention Ragozin figures.
My turn-- what was your reason for bringing this up?
apologized to m. in private message - complete outsider, respect m.\'s opinion from reading the board over the years and dropped my single onto ap in the pick 4 and now my wife is asking me where the money is for her new summer dress
Geez, far be it for me to get Mike an apology. What was I thinking.
Yea, yea...meanwhile the world waits with bated breath for TG to release the Preakness figs!
Whether you use Beyer figures or Tg figures or a combination of both. there are no absolutes here. you have to look how the race was run. Frosted quite simply was the best horse on Derby day. the eye test wins.
Doing the day now, doing it the way I said. As an added bonus it fits tight (within half a point) with the variant for the next race, two turns, and only other one after the rain hit. There are a couple of races I\'m going to review later on from this day, the Preakness is not one of them. Which is not to say it\'s 100% right, conditions terrible and too many x\'s to know that for sure. But other than maybe both the second and third horses going forward exactly the same amount next time it\'s hard to see what could get me to change the figures.
As per Stevie Wonder?
Good Luck,
Joe B
When did this become the \"make unsupported assertions\" board? You friends with the guy who asserted Upstart will never beat top horses at 1 1/4?
I don\'t have any friends Jerry. Will buy you a steak at Capital Grille in lower Manhattan if he does.
Good Luck,
Joe B
What makes you say Frosted was the best horse on Derby Day? Because he was closing fast?
If that\'s the case, my answer would be to say if he was 12-13 out of it early and only made up 8 in the end that doesn\'t make him the best horse. And the extra 1/4 mile in the Belmont usually hurts, not helps, the closers.
To my eye, in both the Derby and the Preakness, AP was the best horse. And he won.
Pizza,
As a guy who sort of likes Frosted and will be playing him in the Belmont as my second horse behind Materiality, your statement is still \"silly\". (there are more accurate but less politically correct ones)
He ran OK in the Derby. I would agree that the \"backwards move\" on figures has to be looked at through the lens of the trip, which was less than ideal, and the fact that other than he and Materiality, nobody else made up ground. What does that mean? It could mean he ran well, but it could also mean that on that day the top 3 were better than everybody else by quite a bit and that is why they were alone at the end.
Make no mistake about it, the race Frosted ran in the Derby ain\'t getting it done in the Belmont, unless none of the fast ones show up or run their race. He has to run back to his Wood, or a race very similar to it.
Rob
pizzalove Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Whether you use Beyer figures or Tg figures or a
> combination of both. there are no absolutes here.
> you have to look how the race was run. Frosted
> quite simply was the best horse on Derby day. the
> eye test wins.
JB, you can cancel the seminar now.
pizzalove Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Whether you use Beyer figures or Tg figures or a
> combination of both. there are no absolutes here.
> you have to look how the race was run. Frosted
> quite simply was the best horse on Derby day. the
> eye test wins.
No comment upon the premise, other than AP seems to be earning figures regardless of how the race is run. However, want to comment upon Frosted.
First off, it sure looks like AP is gonna \"weather\" at Churchill Down\'s again. Baffert is saying the horse if tired after the Preakness. He certainly was full of energy in his last gallop for the Preakness despite being reported tired after the Derby. His Granddad won the Belmont, but the Big Sandy isn\'t for every horse. It\'s generally as deep or deeper and sandier than Churchill Downs.
Back to Frosted, his trainer has won the Belmont with a horse having a Deputy Minister broodmare sire. Jazil was his name. That trainer is Belmont based and I\'d like to see Frosted fire a work that says he\'ll be more forwardly placed. He\'s fast enough, but he needs to stay in touch.
If Frosted runs, I think his only trip is to stalk in 3rd or 4th. I believe his derby trip was a function of many thinking it was going to be a hot pace so he sat back. I was all in on Frosted in the Derby and will be again in the Belmont if he trains accordingly.
Patrick
Upon review of Frosted\'s (upon whom I had a futures bet) I\'m at best a dubious fan of his now but IMO it is no stretch to be optimistic about him.
His CD chart indicate he was rank and resisted being wrangled back early. One could also speculate he was affected by AP\'s dash for early position.
Certainly he is a reasonable candidate to hit the board but where? He made a nice move on the turn and wide but leveled off in the stretch with Dortmunds increasing fade flattering his late effort.
The next quarter mile is mostly guesswork wondering if Rosario gets a repeat call? In a 1+1/4 race with a horse that wants to run its hard to imagine such an abundance of patience and then the split second decision to go around everyone on the last turn?
Knowing more about the throat procedure would be helpful. Covello has spoken an don\'t expect more until the eve of destruction. Any Vets left?
Tavasco Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Upon review of Frosted\'s (upon whom I had a
> futures bet) I\'m at best a dubious fan of his now
> but IMO it is no stretch to be optimistic about
> him.
>
> His CD chart indicate he was rank and resisted
> being wrangled back early. One could also
> speculate he was affected by AP\'s dash for early
> position.
>
> Certainly he is a reasonable candidate to hit the
> board but where? He made a nice move on the turn
> and wide but leveled off in the stretch with
> Dortmunds increasing fade flattering his late
> effort.
>
> The next quarter mile is mostly guesswork
> wondering if Rosario gets a repeat call? In a
> 1+1/4 race with a horse that wants to run its hard
> to imagine such an abundance of patience and then
> the split second decision to go around everyone on
> the last turn?
>
> Knowing more about the throat procedure would be
> helpful. Covello has spoken an don\'t expect more
> until the eve of destruction. Any Vets left?
Pretty sure Frosted had the throat procedure between the Fountain of Youth and Wood Memorial.
So since the surgery he\'s won the Wood in nice fashion and finished a fast closing fourth in the Kentucky Derby. He was having a little trouble with Upstart in Florida, but that was pre surgery and if Upstart is sound he\'s gonna prove how good a horse he is. Just wish they\'d run that Derby again.
If it does rain AP will be nearly impossible to beat!
Pretty sure the procedure was the same that Alysheba had just prior to the Derby and Blue Grass for a displaced palate. The Blue Grass was 10 days out then.
Was all in on Frosted for the Derby, and for many reasons, not just that one.
I\'m hoping he runs, but will want to see some positives before.
Thanks,
My concern revolves around Covello\'s post (weeks back) on the subject in which I understood him to say that in his view this surgical fix doesn\'t always last and in fact lasts less often than not.
The trainer stated that the procedure was called a lewellyn (named after the Dr. Llewellyn) procedure. Not that that clears anything up. Maybe that procedure has a higher success rate than a different approach to accomplishing the same thing. Can google llewellyn procedure.
Will Do!
Thanks
JM: That you enjoyed my camp out made my day. Late night does get kind of slow.
One of the several articles linked below. I did not find any reference to the procedures efficacy wearing off or minimizing over time. However some reports claim 60% others 70% success. Not clear if that means long term or 1st take? I\'ll do a little more research later.
The primary risk seems to be infection which they say is easily treated later. A 15 min outpatient procedure. Seems simple enough.
A concern but less than a fear. If they add a red white and blue nasal strip all will be fine.
Llewellyn (https://www.vetstream.com/equis/Content/Technique/Teq00785)
Why would you want to torture yourself and have them run the Derby over again. If they could, then American Pharoah would just keep beating you over & over again. He wasn\'t in the more vulnerable position he is in the Belmont, because he had only 2 easy races going in. Now he\'s being asked to race his 3rd race in 5 weeks off another race only 3 weeks prior to his Derby. If he loses it will be from fatigue & possibly the distance, not because some horse you though was better than him when he was in the 1st pointed to race & least likely to lose got what you believe was a compromised trip. The best horse won the Derby, the best horse won the Preakness. He\'s the best horse in Belmont, but how much juice is left in the lemon? We\'ll find out soon enough.
Anyone who still thinks he could have been beaten in the Derby by any one of the other horses hasn\'t learned anything from the 1st 2 legs of the Triple Crown.
Because Materiality missed the break and Upstart did not fire at all.
The Talking Heads are all over the \"California Horses\" this season but I\'m not with them. I thought that the clear best race of the Triple Crown Prep season was the Florida Derby run over a demanding track. No other prep race compared, it\'s just that the previous race is only an indicator for the next one.
It didn\'t work out.
Run it again!
toppled Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Why would you want to torture yourself and have
> them run the Derby over again. If they could,
> then American Pharoah would just keep beating you
> over & over again. He wasn\'t in the more
> vulnerable position he is in the Belmont, because
> he had only 2 easy races going in. Now he\'s being
> asked to race his 3rd race in 5 weeks off another
> race only 3 weeks prior to his Derby. If he loses
> it will be from fatigue & possibly the distance,
> not because some horse you though was better than
> him when he was in the 1st pointed to race & least
> likely to lose got what you believe was a
> compromised trip. The best horse won the Derby,
> the best horse won the Preakness. He\'s the best
> horse in Belmont, but how much juice is left in
> the lemon? We\'ll find out soon enough.
> Anyone who still thinks he could have been beaten
> in the Derby by any one of the other horses hasn\'t
> learned anything from the 1st 2 legs of the Triple
> Crown.
Toppled,
there is almost NOTHING to be learned from the Preakness. Zippo. Assume this isn\'t your first rodeo and u understand what sloppy tracks do to races how the figures coming out of such races always need to be viewed that through that lens.
AP proved in the Oaklawn race that he loves the slop. He ran to it in the Preakness. If we get slop at Belmont, that would matter, otherwise, not so much....
If you believed after the Derby that AP was far and away the best of this class, then the Preakness reconfirmed it for you.
If you believed after the Derby that AP was a very good horse, but not far and away the best of this class and potentially vulnerable at short prices, the Preakness should not dissuade you, unless you want to attack him on a wet track in the future..
Rob
Pretty much an assumption that Frosted entrapped in the FOY, was never confirmed. Besides procedure several changes,including jock, were made to Frosted pre-Wood and horse responded well then ok derby followed.Most notable, take back further and make a late run.
Frosted only Belmont entrant with a race over surface which was a good one, a nice edge.Nasty Belmont surface causes many horses to run down,not an easy surface. Baffert threw out a hint when talking to NYRA about hoping the surface would be like when Secretariat ran, not a chance.
Yes, he said that. I think he put a caveat out there that it was his own opinion (at least I hope he did).
I spent 30 minutes on the web after I read that post and found NOTHING to support his view.
I know he is a horse owner and a respected and revered board member, but it seems he is a bit on a limb about that procedure \"not holding\" or \"Only working for one race\".
I would find a different reason to not like Frosted, besides that viewpoint that the procedure may not hold.
Rob
Rob,
Jim is correct,sometimes procedure does not hold.Again, it was never conclusive that Frosted entrapped in the first place. Since the procedure is easy, it was done as a precaution.
Far more telling to me was the new strategy change to take Frosted further back in the Wood.That as opposed to his closer up tactics in the 2 Florida races where he did not finish with any late punch at all,kinda hung late in one race,kinda stopped in the other.
Mike
Couple of things.
The procedure originally referenced by Jim C., I believe was not the procedure that Frosted actually had.(llewellyn) Here\'s a link to a description of the different procedures and gives some historical prespective.
http://www.vet.cornell.edu/Zweig/projects/ducharmewoodie02.cfm
Mike,
I hear you. I did read that Kiaran said they did the procedure despite any proof the horse needed it.
Yes, a complete \"make over\" for the Wood. Dropped further back, new jockey and the procedure.
To me, the hardest horse to read of the contenders. I hear your view point that dropping further back than usual to increase his \"punch\" could have been the key. But I am assuming you saw the earlier race where he inhaled the leader with Ortiz like a statue turning for home, then stopped like he was shot. It sure looks like a horse that had trouble getting air. He want from a sure winner to stopping on a dime.
If I don\'t believe the surgery helped, and it was the race tactics, then i also have to believe he had to be perfectly ridden to get the 1 1/8 and has little shot to get the 1 1/2.
Rosario another X factor. I know he has never been popular on this board, but last year I thought he was an up and coming \"muscle\" rider, who would learn finesse and become great. He took a HUGE STEP BACKWARDS this year. Hard to believe how poorly he rode at Gulfstream. Since when did \"miss the break, rush up 7 wide with a middle move to brush to the lead like they do at Yonkers or the Meadowlands\" become a winning move. Or get blocked in 40% of your turf races. Was waiting to read the announcement that he was getting divorced or checking into a rehab clinic. The riding was that bad IMO. That said, he appears to be coming out of it a bit the last few weeks, riding a bit more like his old self.
On a related note, becoming hard to not use Javier in turf races. Starting to remind me of Ramon, who I will always think was the best of his generation, but never got his due because he didn\'t travel to ride the big names.
Rob
Materiality was a bad play: Inexperience & the fact that a Pletcher horse who runs a negative prep right before the Derby is paramutual death in the Derby.
Upstart was sick a few weeks before the Derby. They can deny it all they want but if you want to think Upstart threw a bad race in and it had nothing to do with the infection, you\'re reaching.
So, if you could turn back the clock to 5/2/15 & run it again I\'ll take AP over the inexperienced, recent Pletcher negative # Materiality & the recently sick Upstart (who now that you have the hindsight should know his illness affected him on Derby day) every time. I\'ll also take him against Firing Line & Dortmund too, who for whatever excuse you want to make, couldn\'t get near him in the Preakness. Run the Derby 100 times under the same conditions and AP wins at least 95 of those times.
The best pre Derby race was run when they were 2YOs. The Frontrunner, run at Santa Anita last September. Just because it was run last year, you ignored it. One could see there that AP was special in the Frontrunner. He beats Texas Red who destroyed them all next out in the BC Juvenile, Calculator, who went on to win the Sham and San Vicente winner Lord Nelson. That was 3 subsequent graded stakes winners AP beat.
So keep running the Derby over again & you\'ll lose every time with your 2 horses because those 5 times out of 100 that I mentioned above would be to either Dortmund or Firing Line.
Toppled,
You answered my earlier question. this IS your first rodeo.
AP wins at least 95 out of 100 Derbies.
Yes. He would be 1-20......
Welcome the parimutuel pools. Please stay for a long time and do well in what business career you have.....
Rob
Rob,
Rule of thumb is once a horse overcomes what is a known issue, leave it to rest. There are so many horses with issues which players know nothing about.If they did,they\'d go nuts trying to figure it all out.That is the main reason those running the game, esp in NY,are reluctant to fully disclose the medical records of all horses entered to run each day...a tough call imo.
Re riders,still believe something changed with Rosario,could not ride that bad.Re Castellano, riding best of all, on many Chad Brown cadillac turfers, a whole other story.
Mike
ringato3 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Toppled,
>
> You answered my earlier question. this IS your
> first rodeo.
>
> AP wins at least 95 out of 100 Derbies.
>
> Yes. He would be 1-20......
>
> Welcome the parimutuel pools. Please stay for a
> long time and do well in what business career you
> have.....
>
> Rob
He was just responding to why he felt AP was the best horse, and I agree with him. Chuckles hates to be wrong, so will come up with ridiculous points even when he is wrong. I read a similar rant when Bodemeister lost the Derby, Smith rode a poor race and should have taken back. With a pure speed horse. Brilliant.
Materiality no foundation off a very fast race, Upstart was sick. Those are facts, and aren\'t exactly the preparation you want going into the Derby.
Mentioning the FrontRunner was accurate, AP beat 3 very nice colts.
People can make any excuse they want after a loss, it helps them deal with being wrong. It doesn\'t necessarily mean that the excuses were the reason for a loss.
AP may not win 95 out of 100, just hyperbole. His point is the best horse won, and would win more than any other horse. Hard to argue that after watching what he has done over his career.
Many reasons a horse doesn\'t fire his best fig in a race, but that doesn\'t mean they should have won.
Paul,
I am not defending chuckles\' point. let him do that.
But you, of all people, shouldn\'t be criticizing backers of either Upstart of Materiality. I say \"you of all people\", because I have come on the board many times over the past couple years (mostly as a lurker) and saw you post about picking some horse that frankly I thought had no shot, because you like to beat favorites. (and some of your picks have won while you looked for \"value\".
Upstart, at 19-1 or whatever he was in the Derby, and Materiality, at 14-1, were bets I would take every day of the week and twice on Sunday. Yep, they lost. I don\'t have to be right every time when I am looking at horses like that. You have to be right almost every time when you want to bet horses that are odds on.
Upstart being \"sick\". I don\'t know. I thought TGJB was lobbying them to run in the Preakness? He had a nice sheet, great 2 year old foundation and fast numbers to run to, as well as spacing. He was horrible on Derby day. It happens.
Materiality was faster than AP heading into the Derby. On ALL NUMBERS. Not just one or two figure makers. I would have agreed that if he was a short price, with Pletcher\'s record and the lack of 2 year old foundation, he would be a bet against, but at 15-1, those things were MORE THAN FACTORED into the price. he stumbled out of the gate and ran OK afterwards.
And nobody that understands this game should ever say that a horse would win the Derby 95 times out of 100. That is right up there with the guy who said yesterday that Frosted undoubtedly ran the best race in the Derby, with the \"eye test\".
Silly stuff.
Good luck
Rob
The way I understand the game, they only run a race once. Not over & over again to give the losers another shot. In the race they ran, American Pharoah won 100% of the time. That\'s the real world. As P-Dub put more eloquently than I did, the 95% was just hyperbole.
Materiality was 11.5-1. Since you brought up the math, Pletcher 1 for 41 going in. That\'s a 2.44% win % and considering how bad his record is on tops before the Derby that go negative, anyone taking 11.5/1 will die a quick paramutual death betting horses like that. As far as faster on all numbers, since this is a TG board I won\'t get into others, but let\'s just say Vito wouldn\'t agree with you. So Materiality had a top a point faster than AP, AP had a much stronger foundation to run another negative going in. I don\'t read a 4, 0.75, -2 as a horse whose 11.5/1 odds in an 18 horse field with a bad inside post are all that great especially with his trainer\'s history of big last Derby prep & fizzle in the Derby factored in. I got suckered into Bandini in 2005-never again on a Pletcher Derby horse with the last big fig.
As far as Upstart, we couldn\'t know until he ran what effect the illness 3 weeks earlier had. It\'s much easier to say Materiality was a bad bet than Upstart, since the X before the race wasn\'t clear. But in hindsight, knowing what he did after says that there was no way he was running his race that day. Anyone who in his dreams wants the race run over again certainly wouldn\'t want to back Upstart on 5/2/15. Now after that, with more recovery time and further away from the illness, I can understand someone wanting to race him ASAP off the non effort.
BTW: You post some very good stuff & I enjoy reading what you write, but defending a Materiality bet isn\'t your top notch stuff.
P-Dub:
I commend you on a cogent level headed objective post. Having witnessed your occasional \"excitable boy\" side. When I saw that you had responded here, my first thought was oh boy here we go!
Instead I find myself having the emotional response to the Materiality hawkers. I just don\'t understand their infatuation and moreover the desire to promote him? I suppose it is Camp Florida.
I\'m curious why the horse didn\'t race @ two?
Hard to be certain when Upstart began to experience his illness and beating him is Materiality\'s primary claim to fame other than the clock which is ? authority here to whit:
Florida Derby #\'s developed from an unusual condition and don\'t appear to have held up. Just based on Derby results.
Lastly, my opinion is if Materiality is a confirmed front runner as someone posted (when embellishing his late gain in the derby) by definition he would not have gained ground late. Consequently he is not as I believe Miff pointed out a proven need to lead type. Therefore his Derby was as ordinary as it looked. Materiality as 2nd betting choice I will believe it when I see it. Note by definitions assertions have no rational just forceful opinions.
I\'ll take Tale of Verve over Materiality. Which is interesting because the bounce forecasters will be beside themselves. I say Verve was and still is in peak condition (until I hear different) This Dallas Stewart angle has become the best angle in the TC.
Go Warriors!
The Dallas Stewart angle where they don\'t pick their feet up in the next TC race after they run huge is every bit as strong.
See Macho Again,Golden Soul,Commanding Curve in their Belmont stakes.
OK - I\'m convinced, maybe just a $1 ebx.
After the race all winners are 100%. It doesn\'t mean they were good bets (or bad ones). There are plenty of times where the most likely winner is a bet against because of his price relative to his actual chance of winning. Which in this game is subjective, to a degree. In some cases more than others.
And re an earlier conversation, overlay (or underlay) is defined as the relationship between a horse\'s odds and actual chance of winning, per a handicapper\'s opinion. It drives me nuts when the TVG/HRTV guys say that because a horse was 6-1 in the ML and goes off 12-1 he was an overlay. ML (as all here must know) is the oddsmaker\'s assessment of what the public\'s opinion will be, has nothing to do with actual chance of winning, even his own opinion on that question.
At 1/44 with a history of bouncing off fast last Derby preps, I\'d have to get some amazing odds in order to back a Pletcher horse in the Derby. He\'s almost always an underlay. Factor in post 3 after the draw and 11.50 to 1 odds in an 18 horse field was a bad bet. Some day Pletcher will win another Derby. Most likely, I\'ll be among the losers that day, but I won\'t whine about it as if I was right like Chuckles.
I shut the sound off when I tune into TVG. It only goes back on when they\'re in the gate.
Question to the board: Has anyone ever heard/learned 1 thing from the talking heads at TVG that made you a better player?
Good Luck,
Joe B.
HRTV was much better. That channel has been diluted and therefore destroyed. Shrupp is absolutely unbearable.
toppled,
why is the 1 for 44 relevant? (not saying it isn\'t, but what is your theory as to why it is statistic that matters)
1. Pletcher can\'t train horses to get 1 1/4?
2. Pletcher can\'t win in Kentucky because of testing?
3. Pletcher\'s derby horses all were slow?
I can\'t connect any of those dots. Maybe you can. I have to look at each case individually (in this case each horse individually).
If a coin lands heads 10 times in a row, unless I can\'t assume heads is more likely unless i can explain why it keeps happening.
I read the Covello post about all of Pletcher\'s horses being over the top before they come to the Derby because he squeezes them so hard earlier in the campaign to get them there. Maybe, but really, could Carpe Diem have come to the derby any more softly raced and ready for a new top or a good race?
The game isn\'t so simple so you can say \"Pletcher is 1-44 so he is a toss\". You can bet however you want of course, but the game has MANY MANY dimensions to it, which is why many of us like to play it. (we like to believe we are smart enough to figure out all the dimensions).
As for the Derby bet, as the exotics payouts showed, AP was more like 8-5 than 5-2 in exactas, tris, supers, pick-3s and pick 4s. My LOSING BET was that he was an underlay in those pools and made Firing Line and Frosted my \"A\'s\" and Materiality and Upstart my \"B\'s\" on all multirace bets. I lost. Would make the same bet again. (post positions switched, Materiality and Upstarts would be \"A\'s\".
You can keep tossing Pletcher on principle, I will keep analyzing his horses individually and make decisions based on form and price. (I hate the guy, I think I was the first to post how lame it was that he continues to skip the preakness while Baffert continues to be smart enough to adjust his style to win off the two weeks rest).
Best
Rob
When Caton Bredar is on, she has some good paddock observations.
I\'m a big believer in trainer stats. They\'re important enough for Jerry to put them on every sheet. I like to refine them further using Formulator. When someone asked who was most likely to bomb in the Preakness I answered Firing Line and backed it up with trainer stats. Baffert\'s Preakness stats also said AP wouldn\'t bomb (3/3 with Derby winners going in 4/4 coming out). FL\'s ardent supporters reacted the same way you just did. They said the stats were meaningless. The stats proved correct. They\'re a big part of the puzzle.
When a trainer has reached any category where they stand out positively or negatively, I take notice. As I said, Pletcher horses are underlays in the Derby. I\'ve bet enough of them in past Derbys to not want another one. The one he won on was only 8/1.
I don\'t know why Pletcher fails so miserably in Derbys. I don\'t have to, the stats tell me that the probability is he won\'t win. If he trains the next Secretariat, I won\'t toss him automatically. If he trains another Materiality, I have to say let him beat me. I don\'t know anyone who can win betting on a horse whose trainer in that situation wins around 2% of the time. Especially when they are bet like Pletcher\'s horses are.
ringato3 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Paul,
>
> I am not defending chuckles\' point. let him do
> that.
>
> But you, of all people, shouldn\'t be criticizing
> backers of either Upstart of Materiality. I say
> \"you of all people\", because I have come on the
> board many times over the past couple years
> (mostly as a lurker) and saw you post about
> picking some horse that frankly I thought had no
> shot, because you like to beat favorites. (and
> some of your picks have won while you looked for
> \"value\".
>
> Upstart, at 19-1 or whatever he was in the Derby,
> and Materiality, at 14-1, were bets I would take
> every day of the week and twice on Sunday. Yep,
> they lost. I don\'t have to be right every time
> when I am looking at horses like that. You have
> to be right almost every time when you want to bet
> horses that are odds on.
>
> Upstart being \"sick\". I don\'t know. I thought
> TGJB was lobbying them to run in the Preakness?
> He had a nice sheet, great 2 year old foundation
> and fast numbers to run to, as well as spacing.
> He was horrible on Derby day. It happens.
>
> Materiality was faster than AP heading into the
> Derby. On ALL NUMBERS. Not just one or two
> figure makers. I would have agreed that if he was
> a short price, with Pletcher\'s record and the lack
> of 2 year old foundation, he would be a bet
> against, but at 15-1, those things were MORE THAN
> FACTORED into the price. he stumbled out of the
> gate and ran OK afterwards.
>
> And nobody that understands this game should ever
> say that a horse would win the Derby 95 times out
> of 100. That is right up there with the guy who
> said yesterday that Frosted undoubtedly ran the
> best race in the Derby, with the \"eye test\".
>
> Silly stuff.
>
> Good luck
>
> Rob
I didn\'t criticize anything. I gave an analysis, based on historical results. If that\'s criticizing, then everyone with a different viewpoint is a critic. How many horses have fired in the Derby with the same foundation Materiality had?
As for posting horses that had no shot, I have no idea what you are talking about. I don\'t do it often, but they are far from no shots or run up the track. I was the first person to post BC weekend with a $25 winner. Posted on Derby day 2 horses that ran second at 9/1 or better. I specifically posted that I liked Firing Line, and was well aware of the number Materiality had run. I liked the foundation and preparation for FL much better, despite the \"inferior\" numbers.
Maybe you can dig in the archives and find a few horses that ran up the track, like you can do for anyone that posts a pick beforehand. Look no further than the last 2 TC races. The board was littered with selections that ran up the track. When you play longer shots, they can lose miserably. That\'s far from a revelation.
Yes, I like to beat favorites. We all do. I\'m aware of the number of times you need to be right to win playing long shots every day. Of course we all pick horses that run up the track. What you may see as no shot, I see a horse that has one. I hit a $70+ horse at SA Saturday that my buddy said had no shot, None. I don\'t care that you or he or anyone else has a different opinion. That what makes the game tick.
When citing figs, I like to keep them in context. Materiality may have been fast enough, but with his foundation I thought the likelihood he would run to it wasn\'t very good. You can cite whatever excuse you want, he didn\'t. 15-1 was worth the risk to some, it wasn\'t for others.
toppled,
Will just agree to disagree. I speak french, you german. Or something like that.
Trainer Stats are NOT a big part of the puzzle. (unless you define \"big\" differently than I do.
I can think of 8 things that are more important to me.
1. Speed figures.
2. competition in the race. (speed figures of those horses)
3. track bias for all recent races so i can see how the speed figures were earned.
4. track surface the day of the race, especially if sloppy.
5. pace scenario in the race
6. i watch the recent replays of all the horses in the race, so i can understand trips and therefore again know HOW the figures were earned (and either adjust up or down)
7. distance the race is being run at. Specifically, each horses propensity run better at shorter or longer distances based on past performances
8. Pedigree, especially as it relates to things like trying a classic distance of ground.
Then I get around to trainer stats.
There are exceptions:
1. Layoffs - trainer stats are crucial
2. first time starters - trainer stats again crucial
You can toss on principle. i can\'t. Just because I look at more factors, think about more variables and make a more well informed decision, doesn\'t mean I will be right, at least not in the short term, but I am comfortable in the long term results being better for me when I am not closed minded. Closed minded is rarely the right way to go on any topic......
Good luck
Rob
Tavasco Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> P-Dub:
>
> I commend you on a cogent level headed objective
> post. Having witnessed your occasional \"excitable
> boy\" side. When I saw that you had responded here,
> my first thought was oh boy here we go!
> Go Warriors!
I think that\'s a compliment. =)
We haven\'t had any Mike Smith bashing in awhile.
Even JB was shocked when he met me. I\'m actually not a bad guy.
Yes, Go Dubs.
P-Dub,
Moving on. You missed my point. Perhaps I didn\'t write it clearly enough. Not criticizing your picks. actually the opposite. Citing your style of play. with your style of play, as I can discern from your posts, you are always looking for prices. As such not sure why you feel inclined to jump on the anti-Upstart, anti-Materiality bandwagon, after the fact, when they were both very fast horses with a right to win, at double digit odds, with both being faster than the favorite.
Me thinks if AP was an east coast horse, you wouldn\'t have posted at all. But that is just me.
Rob
toppled Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I don\'t know anyone who can win betting on a horse whose trainer in that
> situation wins around 2% of the time. Especially when they are bet like
> Pletcher\'s horses are.
Maybe by using as key in exotics?
BG Cat was 30-1
Invisible Ink was 55-1
Both only needed to pair up their TG top to crack the exacta
but you don\'t know me and I didn\'t have Invisible Ink
\"When something happens time after time and you ignore the obvious reasons and look for others, it is often a reach.\" I think you posted this in another thread.
ringato3 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> P-Dub,
>
> Moving on. You missed my point. Perhaps I didn\'t
> write it clearly enough. Not criticizing your
> picks. actually the opposite. Citing your style
> of play. with your style of play, as I can
> discern from your posts, you are always looking
> for prices. As such not sure why you feel
> inclined to jump on the anti-Upstart,
> anti-Materiality bandwagon, after the fact, when
> they were both very fast horses with a right to
> win, at double digit odds, with both being faster
> than the favorite.
>
> Me thinks if AP was an east coast horse, you
> wouldn\'t have posted at all. But that is just
> me.
>
> Rob
I completely missed your point, my apologies.
As for after the fact comments about those 2 horses, I posted I liked Firing Line. Posted 10 min or so before post time. I said the others didn\'t have to fire their best shot, I think it\'s reasonable to infer I didn\'t like either Mat/Up based on a) the comment about the others not firing and b) playing a horse lower in odds despite being \"slower\". That\'s hardly an after the fact comment.
As for the east coast comment, I\'ll just say you are wrong and leave it at that.
I\'m hoping for the heavy Sandy. The Good Grade I horse winning in 2:03 and change for 10 furlongs Sandy. That\'s the Sandy I want to see. The demanding, energy sapping, stride altering Sandy. The Sandy where Greatness is confirmed and the Sandy where Wouldabeen, shouldabeen, couldabeen are often exposed. Or worse yet.
You know, we\'ve got to be leery though, because AP just beat a maiden by 7 lengths. Sure, Firing Line and Dortmund both confirmed that they exited the Derby with issues. We know that now, though we had some clues before the race. Nevertheless, we sent them into the Preakness to do battle and they were not up to the task. A career 12 runner was clearly second best.
We\'ve had a lot of the better horses go off form this Triple Crown season. That has inured greatly to the benefit of having a Triple Crown winner this year. Upstart was not a \"one time\" nice fig horse. Don\'t think he had what\'s now on AP\'s resume, but Upstart\'s absence in the first two legs certainly made it easier for AP to be positioned where he now is.
Ding, Ding, Ding... it\'s also round three. We have some of the higher quality animals returning for this one. If one suspected that Firing Line and Dortmund were over the top going into the Preakness, what was left in that race? Not very much.
Guess there\'s two camps in this event. The \"AP is awesome and a Triple Crown winner camp\". And the \"I can beat AP at odds on and cash greedy camp.\"
There\'s some concerns. Remember Baffert\'s Silver Charm and Real Quiet? Those two were right there for the Triple Crown. I respect Baffert, though he is getting a little loopy in his old age, and I\'m worried he may keep AP together for one more. The latter camp is hoping for a War Emblem type result however. But at least we are here now. We got to the tough test without AP already surrendering the opportunity for the upset.
Cash Greedy
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Pretty much an assumption that Frosted entrapped
> in the FOY, was never confirmed. Besides procedure
> several changes,including jock, were made to
> Frosted pre-Wood and horse responded well then ok
> derby followed.Most notable, take back further and
> make a late run.
>
> Frosted only Belmont entrant with a race over
> surface which was a good one, a nice edge.Nasty
> Belmont surface causes many horses to run down,not
> an easy surface. Baffert threw out a hint when
> talking to NYRA about hoping the surface would be
> like when Secretariat ran, not a chance.
P-dub
Sorry. I had u pegged for a \"west coast\", \"zenyatta was faster and better than rachel\" and \"mike smith doesan\' t go THAT wide\" kind of guy :)
Rob
ringato3 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> P-dub
>
> Sorry. I had u pegged for a \"west coast\",
> \"zenyatta was faster and better than rachel\" and
> \"mike smith does t go THAT wide\" kind of guy :)
>
> Rob
Lol. Good one.
Simple (maybe not) question for Ask The Experts
Many similarities between Materiality and Summer Bird and a few maybe big differences... Who has(had) a better pattern going into the Belmont?
Facts:
both unraced at 2
both 3 starts then derby then belmont
both tops in derby prep and regression in derby
SB first start 7 weeks later (less spacing into derby)
SB top a 7.5 pt leap
Mat top a 2.75 pt hop
Mat top of neg 2 is 3 pts faster than SB top
Mat derby regression larger at 4 pts with SB at 1.75 pts
https://www.thorograph.com/archive/files/bel2009.pdf (https://www.thorograph.com/archive/files/bel2009.pdf)
Note any Mat excuses in derby is not relevant to question; he ran a 2
Several angles to consider re Mat but this is striclcty about the TG pattern
Nice. And brings back good memories.
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Nice. And brings back good memories.
Summer Bird brings back bad memories for me. I used him a lot in the Derby with Pioneerof The Nile. And whenever friends would ask for a long shot in that Derby, I said \"Summer Bird.\"
I came up empty handed in the race, but several friends came to me in subsequent days thanking me for the great pick and telling me that I must have made a ton since I told them to bet Pioneerof the nile with the \"Bird\" horse longshot.
flushedstraight Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Simple (maybe not) question for Ask The Experts
>
> Many similarities between Materiality and Summer
> Bird and a few maybe big differences... Who
> has(had) a better pattern going into the Belmont?
>
> Facts:
> both unraced at 2
> both 3 starts then derby then belmont
> both tops in derby prep and regression in derby
> SB first start 7 weeks later (less spacing into
> derby)
> SB top a 7.5 pt leap
> Mat top a 2.75 pt hop
> Mat top of neg 2 is 3 pts faster than SB top
> Mat derby regression larger at 4 pts with SB at
> 1.75 pts
>
> https://www.thorograph.com/archive/files/bel2009.p
> df
>
> Note any Mat excuses in derby is not relevant to
> question; he ran a 2
> Several angles to consider re Mat but this is
> striclcty about the TG pattern
Not relevant to the question? Did I highlight the question properly? To deny any relevancy would appear to leave one on somewhat of an island. An island without much available for sustenance.
I thought a 2 in the circumstances was close to outstanding and wouldn\'t dream of making a pattern read on one of the subject horses upon that trip. Bad Trips, i.e. Wide Trips get scored for Patterns, but run impeded trips, especially out of character run impeded trips don\'t fit well into formulating a Pattern Read.
If that\'s the correlation you\'re seeing, maybe it will work out for you.
I don\'t see any pattern significance because I don\'t believe the 2 is representative.
Irad Ortiz named to ride Mubtahjiid, perfect fit for the horse.Wide Mikey named on Frammento, also good fit.
Todd Pletcher seems to make up for his failures in the Kentucky Derby with very good performances in the Belmont Stakes, of late.
Mike Welsch:
The two horses many feel have the best chancing of preventing American Pharoah from winning theTriple Crown, MATERIALITY and FROSTED, worked within five minutes of one another after the renovation break at Belmont Park
Materiality, with regular work mate STANFORD providing him with ample company, went five furlongs in :59;81, the pair completing their final quarter in 22.65 before galloping out six furongs in 1:12.04, seven eighths in 1:25.74 and up a mile in 1:40.76. Both looks very solid with Materiality slightly best of the team.
Frosted worked inside Godolphin Mile winner Tamarkuz(pointing for Met Mile), the team going five furlongs in 1:01.56 with Frosted nearest the inside, under slightly more urging to the wire. The team galloped out six furlongs in 1:13.64 then pulled up before completing seven-eighths.
If the 2011 Belmont is any indication,
Castellano is worth 6+ lengths over Rosario
It doesn\'t help Frosted\'s case that his 3 negative #\'s were all earned with W--I--D--E trips
To paraphrase an ex-prez:
There\'s an old saying in Tennessee,
screw me once, shame on... shame on Joel
screw me... you can\'t get screwed again
Gary Stevens rides according to Dallas Stewart.
I\'ll tell you miff, that Stanford can run a lick. Pletcher needs to enter him as well.
Kinda like the Belmont you chose. The Favorite missed all the exotics.
Also remember the ex prez, another clear example of Murphy\'s Law or \"Its so much better to be lucky than good\". That was a peach quote of his though.
Another of my favorites was when he was caught on film trying to draw chuckles while he looked under chairs at a White House party stating, \"No WMD\'s there\". Never occurred to him he\'d sent our youth over there to face what they faced.
Sounds like you caught some Rosario wide on Brilliant Speed. Don\'t see Castellano\'s name in the entries yet though.
flushedstraight Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> If the 2011 Belmont is any indication,
> Castellano is worth 6+ lengths over Rosario
>
> It doesn\'t help Frosted\'s case that his 3 negative
> #\'s were all earned with W--I--D--E trips
>
> To paraphrase an ex-prez:
> There\'s an old saying in Tennessee,
> screw me once, shame on... shame on Joel
> screw me... you can\'t get screwed again
Spectacular Bid seems to be the best horse to NOT have won the triple crown. I guess mostly because this horse raced after loosing the Belmont Stakes. It seems that the plans have already been laid for American Pharoah win or loose. My gut tells me to hope that that horse looses for that reason alone. In other words I can\'t whole heartedly root for a horse who is not being pointed after the next month to be a racehorse.
On the verge of becoming the sport\'s third consecutive Triple Crown winner in 1979, following Seattle Slew and Affirmed, Spectacular Bid was derailed by a safety pin and a poor ride by young jockey Ron Franklin in the last leg of the series, the Belmont Stakes.
The colt stepped on a stray safety pin in his stall before the Belmont race and the pin became embedded in his left front hoof. Delp considered scratching the horse but was satisfied with how he jogged.
Ridden with little patience by Franklin, Spectacular Bid weakened to finish third, behind winner Coastal and Golden Act. He developed an infection as a result of the safety pin mishap and didn\'t race for more than two months.
\"I still believe Bid would have won that day had Ronnie ridden a better race,\" Delp told The Times in 2003 when Spectacular Bid died of a heart attack at 27. \"It was the only race in his life where a horse passed him in the stretch.\"
A champion as a 2- and 3-year-old, Spectacular Bid was even better at 4, having arguably the greatest single year of any Thoroughbred.
En route to 1980 horse-of-the-year honors, Spectacular Bid won all nine of his races under jockey Bill Shoemaker, taking the Strub Series and Santa Anita Handicap as well as stakes in Illinois, New Jersey and New York.
From 2006 LA Times obituary article on trainer Grover G. \"Bud\" Delp
http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/horse_racing/20150525_Spend_A_Buck_and_the_Jersey_Derby_shook_up_racing_in_1985.html
Joe,
Thanks for the link.
Remember that day well.
I had a front row clubhouse seat for that Jersey Derby compliments of my late great friend Albert Hurren. Al was a Brit who, along with Mrs. McAnally ran many trips to the classic Euro races such as the ARC etc.
The next time I would be at Garden State was for the dispersal sale!
Spend a Buck certainly looked like a beaten horse during the race but he prevailed.
If I recall, the Buck might have been First Time Latex in the both the Kentucky and Jersey Derby that year.
Other than Woody\'s CF, the rest of that field was still eligible for non winners of a ham sandwich.
Brennan....totally crooked. Should have been a lifer....him, his helicopter and the appropriately named Due Process Stable.
That\'s another story.
Bob
I was surprised to see such a in depth article regarding this track and horse.
At the time I lived less than 10 miles from GS Park. Didn\'t go to the race but watched it on TV as a local network carried it. Intense photo.
Was surprised to find out how much money they put into building that track. It was like walking into a shopping mall. The place is now a big strip mall with townhouses.
Recently found a Youtube video of a patron that went through the building after it had been shut down before they demolished it completely. Freaking shame.