In the last few weeks of capping, I have performed some post mortems (too many, frankly) to see what I missed, why I lost. On several occasions, a lightly raced horse jumped up and beat me or broke up my vertical bets. When I looked closer, I discovered it was the most expensive horse in the race.
Rule: never completely toss the most expensive horse in the race if it\'s lightly raced. Guess who was the most expensive horse in the Preakness? The reason I accept the rule is somewhat based on science: the market recognizes potential in constitution and breeding, etc., so as with the efficient market theory in finance, the money or price is one early assessment.
Leamas
Leamas57 Wrote:
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> In the last few weeks of capping, I have performed
> some post mortems (too many, frankly) to see what
> I missed, why I lost. On several occasions, a
> lightly raced horse jumped up and beat me or broke
> up my vertical bets. When I looked closer, I
> discovered it was the most expensive horse in the
> race.
>
> Rule: never completely toss the most expensive
> horse in the race if it\'s lightly raced. Guess who
> was the most expensive horse in the Preakness? The
> reason I accept the rule is somewhat based on
> science: the market recognizes potential in
> constitution and breeding, etc., so as with the
> efficient market theory in finance, the money or
> price is one early assessment.
>
> Leamas
Mud = Chaos.
That may be another reason long shots hit the board.
Getting a dream trip on the rail for most of the race didn\'t hurt either.
Verve was entered to pick up the pieces. No shot to win of course. He figured to be alone at back of pack and get a dream trip. His late pace figs were best in field. Mud moved him up as well.
metroj Wrote:
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> Getting a dream trip on the rail for most of the
> race didn\'t hurt either.
Horses with speed make their dream trips.
Truth is, it was a great ride by Rosario. Borelesque.
Leamas57 Wrote:
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> Truth is, it was a great ride by Rosario.
> Borelesque.
Yep, great ride by Castellano as well.