You said your sources or you yourself thought Firing Line was \"tucked up\" some after his Derby effort. Sloppy track or not the horse didn\'t run a jump today.
The best horse won. He may not win the Belmont but none of these here today will beat him....
JB,
Good luck making a number,hee hee!
Mike
Gary Stevens said he weighed 15 pounds more after the race (120 before and 135 after without his helmet). Will FL get the benefit of 3 lengths in his figure? (tongue in cheek)
Horrible final time. Tale of Verve second. Divining Rod (and Pharoah) will be key to figure maker\'s decision I bet.
AP will def win the Belmont... This is the one!!!! I think he\'ll run ~neg 2. As stated in another thread I knew he\'d blow this field away but that was very clear based on the #\'s/lines.
Tale of Verve runs 12\'s and was only beat like 4 points by AP. Pickle AP\'s fig, it\'s meaningless as to any pattern read.
True, but based on appearance Verve looked sensational. He easily could have moved up several points.
If Tale Of Verve ONLY moved up several points, then AP ran an X
So far the AP knockers are X X. Like the beer.
He won by 7-What\'s he supposed to do, win by 50 so he pairs?
Swale,
The over/under for how many points Verve moved up is about 9. So \"yeah\", he might have \"moved up a couple points\".
Figures for sloppy track races are slightly more useful than an appendix or a pinky toe.
As for the belmont. Something for everybody. AP skeptics can point to the sloppy track or hang hopes on a bounce. AP fans will think the preakness confirmed that he is the real deal and comments about him not handling the track at Churchill that well were true.
Rob
Can running in the mud affect a quarter crack? And no mention of this the lately. Is it all good does anyone know?
I hope he makes it to the Belmont healthy to run. Would hate to have the horse not get his shot at history.
And I\'d love to know what Pletcher\'s plans are after watching the race. He has been solid in the Belmont. Could be an epic race!
Betting on a Beyer of about 102 to 105 for AP. Miff will know soon enough I hope.
Fair,
He whistled by 5+ lengths. Good guess would be the quarter crack didn\'t affect him today.
Next race. Who knows. I wouldn\'t be betting against him hoping the quarter crack acts up.
What I would do is say that the derby might be a better reflection of his distance capabilities than the slop aided preakness was, and at 1 1/2 miles, in his 4th race in 8 weeks, going against a horse almost as fast (materiality), he might be vulnerable.
Rob
Obviously it didn\'t affect him today.
I\'m curious if the moisture or running in the mud could cause problems with a quarter crack in the days/week/months after.....such that he couldn\'t run as he didn\'t in the BC Juvy when allegedly he had a deep bruise in his front left hoof.
Sorry if I wasn\'t crystal clear on that.
Thanks Silver.
Fwiw, I watched the Race from the Wynn Sports book during a weekend trip out here in Vegas with my wife and a bunch of other couples
This is the first time I have ever watched a triple crown race from a Vegas sports book as I am usually at the race itself.
Have to say, absolutely electric vibe in the book before during and after the race. Wonderful experience. I would highly recommend it to anyone.
i will just say this now and then disappear until after the Belmont but I think this horse is different than the others who have tried for the triple crown.
I have no interest in getting into big back and forth arguments with folks on the board who don\'t agree with that view but I have been saying for months that this is the most brilliant and best moving horse I have ever seen. Ironically, the TG numbers back that up given the Derby figure he ran and likely paired today but I understand some people have a hard time believing the numbers.
I understand any gamblers desire to try and beat him and I sent it in with both fists against chrome, big brown, smarty, etc in their respective Belmont runs but I won\'t bet a nickel against this horse in the Belmont as I think he\'s a much better horse than any of them
I know the same people who criticized my view of him before the Derby and then again after the Derby will create some other reasons to justify their prior view even after he dominated the race today which is why I won\'t be posting again until after the Belmont. I will leave all that back and forth to others.
Good luck to all.
Now onto Sat night in Vegas.....Vegas baby!!!!!!
For once we agree Jim. I\'m not betting against this horse in the Belmont and I have bet against with all of them including and since Smarty with the chance at the triple.
I find it ironic you are singing Vegas Baby when you think the BC should avoid Halloween. Have a great time!!
I don\'t think your opinion should stop you from posting.
Carpe Diem
Covelj...nice wish I was there. Couldn\'t agree with you more.
Also, if this was an \"easy\" race for AP because of the track and lack of a threat in the stretch then the odds are even better he run well for the Belmont.
First fig in has AP almost pairing, like TG 2.5, whatever.
Never heard AP has/had a quarter crack but a stone bruise which has him wearing an egg bar shoe with a half plate on his front left foot.Having won 3 races that way, it is now irrelevant imo.
Only question left to answer is can AP do it again in three weeks.AP easily racetrack fastest of all of them.
\"Easy\" races are deceptive.
Re-watch big Browns preakness. I got tired of betting against him after watching run for about 1/4 mile and destroy the field. M
Not saying AP is big brown. But not saying he isn\'t...
Rob
Just a quick comment. I don\'t know anyone well and vice versa is certainly true. I\'m a life long horse fan, handicapper and even owned a few dozen but family comes first these days. But I learn a lot from your posts and miff\'s. I\'ll disappear again after the triple crown for a while. I like this board a lot especially when people share their opinion and justification without being redundant or argumentative. After that it\'s wasted breath. Enjoy Vegas!
AP certainly not \"easily\" faster than materiality. Race track, TG, beyer, or any other measure.
Same range. And materiality earned it, no suck up, phony wide, etc.
If AP wins in 3 weeks, he will have ran the gauntlet. Unless there are defections, a real field is lining up. Arguably a faster one than any recent triple crown candidate faced. (Silver charm faced a few fast ones)
Rob
Your correct ring. Actually what I mean is I think he regressed, to what degree idk but I think a lot, due to the fact he was not fully asked and the track and because of this I think the backward move is a positive for his next race.
Horse,
Not sure I understand your post completely.
A backwards move wouldn\'t be a positive sign for AP. Unless u meant a positive sign if u wanted to attack him in the belmont.
As for whether he went backwards, rough call. Slowest preakness on the clock in 50 years and a horse with 12 as a previous top ran second. Obviously a bunch of \"no shows\". But when a horse blows open a triple crown field by 7, how far backward could he have gone, if at all.
Rob
I wouldn\'t be surprised if he backed up here and I don\'t think it matters too much. He went to the lead and did his thing and he didn\'t need the whole tank to do it.
If AP\'s TG fig comes back -1 I would wait in a line around the corner over night to bet against him in the Belmont. I would love to see a triple crown winner but I have learned over the years to not fall victim to the visually impressive Preakness win. He did what he was suppose to do, now he will have to earn it at the big sandy and to me, from a betting prospective, spells opportunity especially because he figures to be 1-9. Even if he is the most likely winner I will take a stab at beating him because the price is sure to be right and if I lose I get to see a triple crown winner. It\'s a win/win!
No chance AP 1-9 in Belmont and his Preakness number is irrelevant as to how he will perform in the Belmont.AP\'s figure will be the best effort using creative license, not nearly enough points of reference to go off the horses or the clock.
Do you think he will be 2-1? With a triple crown at stake?
AP can still offer value in exacta and tri keys as today\'s race showed. Verve was over bet in the win pool but a $60 exacta under a 4-5 shot was square.
Toga Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> If AP\'s TG fig comes back -1 I would wait in a
> line around the corner over night to bet against
> him in the Belmont.
That line started forming on this board five minutes after he won the Derby. Counting I\'ll Have Another\'s failure to make the starting gate, nine horses in the past eighteen years alone have failed to grab the brass ring. There were four more before them, going back to the prior triple crown winner, and those include Spectacular Bid, Alysheba and Sunday Silence. So, forgetting for just a moment, the figures, on history alone, you\'re going against a horse at odds on to do what thirteen consecutive horses have failed to do, and some of them are deservedly called all-time greats. The Belmont has provided a \"beat the chalk\" feeding frenzy nearly every year, even when the Crown wasn\'t on the line. This year certainly won\'t be any different.
Well said. That is all I was pointing out.
covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Thanks Silver.
>
> Fwiw, I watched the Race from the Wynn Sports book
> during a weekend trip out here in Vegas with my
> wife and a bunch of other couples
>
> This is the first time I have ever watched a
> triple crown race from a Vegas sports book as I am
> usually at the race itself.
>
> Have to say, absolutely electric vibe in the book
> before during and after the race. Wonderful
> experience. I would highly recommend it to anyone.
>
>
> i will just say this now and then disappear until
> after the Belmont but I think this horse is
> different than the others who have tried for the
> triple crown.
>
> I have no interest in getting into big back and
> forth arguments with folks on the board who don\'t
> agree with that view but I have been saying for
> months that this is the most brilliant and best
> moving horse I have ever seen. Ironically, the TG
> numbers back that up given the Derby figure he ran
> and likely paired today but I understand some
> people have a hard time believing the numbers.
>
> I understand any gamblers desire to try and beat
> him and I sent it in with both fists against
> chrome, big brown, smarty, etc in their respective
> Belmont runs but I won\'t bet a nickel against this
> horse in the Belmont as I think he\'s a much better
> horse than any of them
>
> I know the same people who criticized my view of
> him before the Derby and then again after the
> Derby will create some other reasons to justify
> their prior view even after he dominated the race
> today which is why I won\'t be posting again until
> after the Belmont. I will leave all that back and
> forth to others.
>
> Good luck to all.
>
> Now onto Sat night in Vegas.....Vegas baby!!!!!!
Not me I will easily say.. \"You were totally dead on and I was totally wrong about the horse.\" I am a believer now (started leaning that way after the derby). He isn\'t going to be the best Triple Crown Winner and he won\'t be the fastest but he is a better then this crop and that is all that matters. It will be good for Horse Racing to finally have another Triple Crown winner, lets just hope he is sound after his Triple Crown run and at least runs a couple more times this year to keep the interest up for the love of the game.
I am just glad I have all his lifetime programs cause if he does win the Triple Crown they are going to be worth a ton! lol
Wonder if Frank whoever is going to come on here again and rip me like he did after the Derby for saying I singled and hit AP in everything again. But this time a $20 pick 4, a $2 pick 5 and a $5 Superfecta. Hope you \"toss\" AP out the exotics again.
Covello I am with you 1000%!!! Can\'t wait for the Belmont. Tickets just got here!
JB I know you do not delete posts, but could we at least capture nominations for (most annoying) performance in a post and have an awards banquet at the end of the year?
I\'ll embrace that Tread. Most of the people on ESPN are famous because of their (---) qualities.
I\'ll assume you don\'t know any better, but it\'s considered poor taste to talk about your winning bets after the race was run. It\'s fine to post the combinations you are going to bet pre-race, to possibly benefit others but nobody really cares how much you claim to have won. Many people on this board hit the Preakness or one of the hundreds of other races run over the last couple of days.
In the immortal words of Vince Lombardi, act like you\'ve been there before.
ESPN personalities redboard \"$20 pick4s\"? News to me
AP gets a 102 Beyer for Preakness and now sits on the dreaded 0 2 pattern going to the Belmont.I can hear the Kool Aid drinkers howling.
What\'s the gauge? two points per length at Tgraph?
Say Tale of Verve runs his 12 again. Beaten 7 lengths that puts AP in at about a minus 2.
I\'m guessing Verve had some wide in there and AP did not, but I\'m not sure backing Beyer at 0-2 is gonna you the bounce. It\'ll get you something, but why would Beyer be able to calculate that Preakness. I listened to him on a DRF podcast and he literally could not string 3 words together.
Age gets us all, but Beyer?
\"Say Tale of Verve runs his 12 again. Beaten 7 lengths that puts AP in at about a minus 2\"
Correct!! guessing you will get a person to person from JB with an offer to replace Alan making figs
Wow , pretty good day. Was doing some rough math. Pick 4 brought back roughly 10k. Pick 5 roughly 4k. Superfecta close to 10k. That\'s around 25k back in 1 race. How much did it cost you to get it?
REALLY!!!
Pick 4 sequence is 11 x 11 x13 x 1 = $1,573 for a $1
Pick 5 sequence is 11 x 11 x 11 x 13 x 1 = $ 17,303 for a $1
That is NOT correct unless the planets have realigned and there is an alternate universe.
1 point = 2 lengths at 1 1/4
Not one length = 2 points.
Believe u two are talking Beyer points. Not TG points.
Hmm... Wonder if that means all those beyer conversion posts by muff are wrong?
Rob
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> \"Say Tale of Verve runs his 12 again. Beaten 7
> lengths that puts AP in at about a minus 2\"
>
>
> Correct!! guessing you will get a person to person
> from JB with an offer to replace Alan making figs
Yeah maybe, but you\'ve got some Wide and Improvement to factor. Other\'s with reliable figs (Firing Line, Dortmund) going off form. It\'s not gonna be easy, even for Alan.
Your safe chuckles Alan doesn\'t make figures!
\"That is NOT correct unless the planets have realigned and there is an alternate universe.
1 point = 2 lengths at 1 1/4
Not one length = 2 points.
Believe u two are talking Beyer points. Not TG points.
Hmm... Wonder if that means all those beyer conversion posts by muff are wrong?\"
....damn, thanks Rob, knew I was getting it wrong.
Question was directed to Chas04.
ringato3 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> That is NOT correct unless the planets have
> realigned and there is an alternate universe.
>
> 1 point = 2 lengths at 1 1/4
>
> Not one length = 2 points.
>
> Believe u two are talking Beyer points. Not TG
> points.
>
> Hmm... Wonder if that means all those beyer
> conversion posts by muff are wrong?
>
> Rob
I think I started the misinformation. It\'s still a tough race to score. That\'s a 3 to 4 point margin on raw distance, you\'re correct.
covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Fwiw, I watched the Race from the Wynn Sports book
> during a weekend trip out here in Vegas with my
> wife and a bunch of other couples
>
> This is the first time I have ever watched a
> triple crown race from a Vegas sports book as I am
> usually at the race itself.
>
> Have to say, absolutely electric vibe in the book
> before during and after the race. Wonderful
> experience. I would highly recommend it to anyone.
Agree. Watched CC\'s bid for the crown at the Wynn book last June. An hour to post and the place was already packed in like a rock concert. A couple dozen or so were wearing nasal strips.
To put it another way, those of us looking to bet against AP in the Belmont got EXACTLY the best result.
Can he win? Sure. But he\'s for sure less likely than Smarty was. Huge betting opportunity.
Rock-- love the nasal strip thing.
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Rock-- love the nasal strip thing.
I\'ll be wearing one at the TG Open this August.
moosepalm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> TGJB Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Rock-- love the nasal strip thing.
>
>
> I\'ll be wearing one at the TG Open this August.
Great idea, Roger! I\'ll wear several of them. It will be easier than applying my usual amounts of sunscreen.
Well I sure miss your post,as I had a couple of questions to ask..
I was in the Bellagio when Blame beat Z in the BCC..
It was very cool.
Had friends in V town for the Derby some good parties..
Hope Lady Luck was with you last night.
magicnight Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Great idea, Roger! I\'ll wear several of them. It
> will be easier than applying my usual amounts of
> sunscreen.
What I want to know, Bob, is whether or not there will be testing for the Open. If so, I assume you have to turn in a positive in order to be eligible to play. I haven\'t seen any move ups in the past few years. I\'ve mostly played like the typical Finger Lakes plug shipping into the Spa.
Sean was a big move-up a couple of years ago.
moosepalm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> magicnight Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
>
> > Great idea, Roger! I\'ll wear several of them.
> It
> > will be easier than applying my usual amounts
> of
> > sunscreen.
>
> What I want to know, Bob, is whether or not there
> will be testing for the Open. If so, I assume you
> have to turn in a positive in order to be eligible
> to play. I haven\'t seen any move ups in the past
> few years. I\'ve mostly played like the typical
> Finger Lakes plug shipping into the Spa.
No worries there, Roger. I\'m certain to test positive for something, even if it\'s only Benicar.
Years ago when I had to pee in a cup for my current job I noticed the form said \"4 Drug Panel\" and I thought to myself \"FOUR??? Damn, I\'m 1/9 to hit for at least one of these!\" Now, after 15 years with the company, I\'m starting to think it wasn\'t to screen out degenerates, but rather, an unstated and slyly forward-looking job requirement.
I heard Dortmund is out for Belmont. Is this true? Love how a horse who was undefeated going into the derby suddenly needed a change of pace in the Preakness. Like I say if we could devise of figure for the stupidity of trainers and jockeys it would be a breakthrough of the highest order.