Many years ago in the midst of the British Invasion, Eric Burdon (Lead Singer for the Animals) was questioned by reporters about something or another in an attempt to get him to answer wilh something that could be argued. Could have been a comparison to Bo Diddley. In any event Eric didn\'t bite but he did say something memorable (and I paraphrase below) in his reaction to the event and it made it on to his next L.P.
Now that I have settled on my approach to betting the Preakness and having reflected upon much of the board\'s banter of the last several days his expression (with distinct blue collar English accent) rings in my mind.
\"I\'ve never heard such a pile of rubbish in aahll my life!\"
There is no harm in arguing which of the three amigos will run poorly, certainly most recreational players try to beat 3/5 favorites. Few however can just play against one on general principals instead they need reasons like race spacing, value or who is mostly likely to bomb.
The message I was getting from my subconscious was (like Eric Burdon) the whole conversation is inappropriate for me. The search for value in the race is of interest so I needed a different line of thinking as one who primarily looks for vertical opportunities. Value resides in unpopular opinions/positions so I examined the popular opinions with an eye toward the contrary.
1. American Pharoah is the fastest horse and an odds on m/l favorite.
2. Dortmund & Firing Line are a cut below the favorite and either could win if AP flops.
3. Mr. Z, Danzig Moon, Divining Rod & Bodhisattva are a third tier and unlikely to finish as high as second.
4. Tale of Verve is in the wrong race and has no chance.
The only value will be in betting contrary to the popular opinions. For horizontal players that means they have to bet against AP. But I\'m not a horizontal player so I have other options.
I reject putting Tale of Verve on any ticket which must be the #1 most popular opinion. Then I\'ll put AP in the win position the second most popular opinion. Then for value I\'ll put the four tier three horses in the 2nd and 3rd slots of the trifecta. I\'ll guess that will yield 25/1 or better? Likely? No! Contrary? Yes!
We had two 3/5 favorites (StopChargingMaria & Lady Sabella ) @ Pim today. One of which won and one of which didn\'t which is about what we should expect. FWIW The Maria, 2nd choice, 20/1 long shot tri paid $80 for 1. Beating Lady Sabella with a next best type yielded a $15 for $1 exacta on a 5/1 winner.
Getting AP out of most exactas or the tri will provide considerable value. As JB has mentioned it doesn\'t take much of an investment to do so. But isn\'t it about 65% likely AP will be in the exacta. Of course new clues gleaned overnight or Sat morning regarding AP can change everything.
So faced with finding an unpopular opinion (value) I\'m opting for beating two instead of one it is less expensive and offers enough value to make me happy.
To quote Richiebee nobody asked me but...
\"Jerome said, Uh, where\'s the bar, man? Please show me to the bar\".
Great song, The Story of Bo Diddley.
Cannot believe AP will be \'sent\'. Dort will be sent with Mr. Z and FL stalking them. Bod and Rod could both be up close with AP 3-4 lengths off the pace getting a ground saving ride. He reels them in at the 1/16th pole. Dort hangs in for the exacta, with DM and Verve picking up the rest of the pieces.
If I only looked at the sheets, I would say bet a big straight trifecta, AP/FL/DM.
Paolo:
Yes siree - that is the one!
The rain clearly changed the jock\'s tactics. Regardless of any possible owner/trainer/jockey conspiracy theories, the best horse won easily. Hundreds of posts on this race, and this was probably the only one that took a positive view of Verve to pick up the pieces. I could not have played this horse if I relied solely on speed figures. Onward to Belmont.
If you\'re building a deck, you need more than just a hammer. Speed/performance figures just another tool in the box. You absolutely need them to have any long term success but they\'re not the end all (especially in turf races).
Good Luck,
Joe B
Although I didn\'t recall the background or context correctly the lyric did stick in my mind. For Those Unfortunates Who Have Never Heard The Tune.
The Story Of Bo Diddley (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=swPzNFxsghc)