Could use some help here. Not crazy about the race but I have to bet the Preakness. Of the big three what is your opinion of who is most likely to crash and burn Saturday?
Pat
AP by far.
Firing Line, whose best races are with a lot of spacing. His 3yo campaign had the following spacing: to 3yo debut 49 days, 2nd race 43 days, Derby 41 days. In addition his trainer is only 1 for 11 on 14 days rest. Contrast that with the Baffert duo whose trainer is a lofty 34% wins on 14 days rest (also with an overall record of 3 for 3 on Derby winners winning the Preakness and 2 additional Preakness winners who ran in the Derby). Other Derby runners trainer stats for 14 days between races: Casse 15%, Lukas 10%. Callaghan\'s 9% is the weakest of the 5 Derby/Preakness starters-Win % data compiled over last 5 years from Formulator.
Most likely to bounce: Firing Line
Least Likely to bounce: Baffert Duo.
Edit: On routes/14 days between starts Callaghan 0/9 (0%), Baffert 5/13 (38%)
The spacing is precisely the reason Firing Line is least likely to bomb. This is Sheet Theory 101. In what world is the most overworked horse (AP) the least likely to bomb? Why haven\'t we had a Triple Crown winner in forever? Overworked horses trying to run 3 big races in 5 weeks! What spacing is Pharaoh on in the Preakness? His 3rd race in 5 weeks!
There\'s no logical reason to \"Firing Line needs spacing\". Firing Line has HAD spacing, that doesn\'t prove he needs spacing. They mapped this path to the Derby so they would have a fresh horse. He wasn\'t spaced out because he was worn out. He hasn\'t missed any training in between these races! There\'s zero reason or logic to think he\'s going to bounce because the rest of his races have had spacing. It\'s the exact opposite that is true!
Have to agree with Sekrah here. Keep in mind that those stats are for horses where they CHOOSE to run within those two weeks, and that\'s hardly the case in this scenario. Which make them pretty much useless for handicapping the preakness. I\'m going to play this race as a good, old fashioned win bet on Firing Line (if there\'s normal track conditions).
I\'d rather play a horse whose trainer has proven he can hold a horse together with only 14 days between races than one who hasn\'t. I\'d rather have a horse who has shown he can come back on shorter than optimal rest (3 weeks from Ark to Derby) than a horse who needs to be babied with 40+ day rests between races.
Face it, you have no idea if Firing Line can handle only 14 days rest. His trainer made sure he had a lot of rest between all his 3yo races & it had nothing to do with the 14 day turnaround between the Derby & Preakness. Hence, my answer, the logical answer using available horse/trainer data is FL is most likely to bomb.
Fortunately, the race is in 2 days, so we\'ll see who is right. Good luck if you\'re taking 7/2 on FL doing something contrary to his trainer\'s and his own record of success. I prefer to do the prudent thing and put only minimal action bets on the race using multi race wagers and basically not bet a race that contrary to pizzalove\'s statement, doesn\'t HAVE TO be bet.
Not very convincing!
toppled, none of what you just wrote about spacing and rest matches the knowledge I\'ve gained from my personal experience. Good luck this weekend.
Good luck betting the horse with the biggest forward move (2.5 points) coming back on 2 weeks rest for a trainer with no track record of success doing what he\'s doing today.
What sheet theory says that\'s a good move? Worse he\'s an underlay at 7/2 to 4/1. That\'s why there\'s no law that says you have to bet the Preakness, it\'s a bad bet no matter who you like. At least the Baffert horses have a trainer with a proven record in this race, you\'re playing a pig in a poke, one who no matter what data you\'re using, except for Sek\'s take a horse who needs 40+ days rest & run him back off a 2.5 new top in 2 weeks sheet theory 101, tells you he\'s a bad bet.
As I said we\'ll know in 2 days. You\'re apparently risking serious $ on a win bet that has no statistical or sheet basis to be made. If I was taking the race seriously, I\'d be looking for a way to get paid if Danzig Moon hits the board, not trying to get Firing Line in the winner\'s circle at, at best 4/1.
Of course you are right Dave. It\'s absurd to utilize the 14-day trainer stat in a situation where a horse is highly pressured to run.
If anything, this may support Dortmund, who does not have to run.
For American Pharaoh, who has to run, the statistic is downright useless.
Which answers the question of this thread that American Pharaoh is by far the most likely to bomb. If this weren\'t the Triple Crown, there would be a 0% chance Baffert would run this horse 3 times in 5 weeks. AP is a massive underlay. When you have a 3/5 shot as a massive underlay, there is always a betting opportunity there.
You too.
As I once told a friend on the morning before my biggest score when he told me Andy Serling said he thought the horse I was keying on that day would be running in claimers at Gulfstream that winter \"we might both be right\" It turned out we both were.
There are plenty of other races this weekend so that whoever is wrong on the Preakness can still have a big couple of days.
I always believe that if I go to the track with friends & we disagree on every race, if we pick our spots correctly we can all win. Preakness or not, just win this weekend.
I don\'t quite understand your spacing argument. Didn\'t Firing Line\'s program get him into the derby, and into the derby in quite good shape? Why the hell should they\'ve wanted to run him any more than he did, anyway. And why are you so sure that 4/1 is an underlay? Because your misinterpreted \"sheet theory 101\" and insane use of statistics says it is? He damn sure might not win, and AP may well do, but I think that price is pretty good for a horse that might not have to improve at all to take this home if AP where to have just a tad off day, and who very well could improve if he changes leads this time out, or just runs a better race, which is possible regardless of your hysterical interpretation of spacing for racehorses. All we know come saturday is who won and who didn\'t, but we\'ll never know if your statement that he\'s an underlay is a false one or a true one. At least you have the odds in your favour when sticking your neck out ;)
Dave, 4/1 is a pretty sweet price in a 3-horse race.
It is, and specially when the big favorite has a lot of IF\'s around him. Maybe I go crazy and try to get Dortmund up for the exacta as well! (and don\'t worry Toppled, I won\'t bet my house on this, anyway).
Why does it matter? From a wagering perspective, there\'s no opportunity in the race. Any of them could bomb. The only edge is betting all of them to bomb. Not with my money. Pick another race.
jerry Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Why does it matter? From a wagering perspective,
> there\'s no opportunity in the race. Any of them
> could bomb. The only edge is betting all of them
> to bomb. Not with my money. Pick another race.
This is totally untrue. If you spot a vulnerable odds-on favorite, and there is one here, then you have an opportunity. Especially in a race with huge pools.
There\'s absolutely betting opportunity in this race. There\'s an opportunity to aggressively push an edge.
Thank you Jerry for being the voice of reason. If this race wasn\'t a biggie nobody on this board would be betting it.
When was the last time a horse coming off a 2.5 point new top with 2 weeks spacing considered a good bet? AP & FL are horrible bets and both bounce candidates. But, given the data that his trainer is a perfect 3/3 in the Preakness with Derby winners and a 5 time winner overall with Derby runners on 2 weeks rest, AP has a much better chance of having the better race of the 2. The data on this race for this trainer is hardly irrelevant.
If I was forced to play the race and was looking for the best value it certainly wouldn\'t be 4/1 Firing Line. It would be the horse who ran a new top & then paired it in the Derby-15/1 Danzig Moon. He\'s most likely to have a forward move in him than the horse who just fired his best shot with a 2.5 new top & is a likely bounce candidate off 2 weeks rest.
Serious question, how do you estimate Firing Lines chances for a bounce in percentages? And maybe the same for AP. It would be a cool exercise for your sheet theory 101-exam, maybe it could even help you to spot some value in the \"unbettable race\"!
Off the top of my head, my guess would be 50/50 for each. Since it\'s the ROW, I\'ll now go & look at the Thoro-Pattern on the sheet. Here\'s what it says in top, pair, off, x order
AP: 36, 27, 21, 17
FL: 43, 25, 21, 11
So, Thoro Pattern says that neither should bomb, with FL having a slightly better chance of a new top than AP, and AP having a slightly better chance, although only 17% of Xing. However, since FL has 1.5 points to make up on AP & should lose more ground, based on this pattern AP is the most likely winner & FL the 2nd most likely-similar to Jerry\'s analysis in the ROW write-up. There\'s a reason Jerry called this race \"a pretty poor betting race\", because it is.
Tough to say IMO just based on their sheet. And really tough to claim one is a stronger bounce candidate than the other since neither has bounced yet, especially without seeing them.
Would sure be nice if there was a way to get their race day weight.
toppled Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> When was the last time a horse coming off a 2.5
> point new top with 2 weeks spacing considered a
> good bet?
Does the answer \"Quite often!!\" suffice?
1997-Silver Charm ran a 2.5 pt top in the Derby, paired it up to win the Preakness.
1999-Charismatic ran a 4.5 pt top in the Lexington, paired it up to win the Derby.
2002-Proud Citizen ran a 3.75 pt top in the Derby, paired it up in the Preakness.
2005-Giacomo ran a 4.5 pt top in the Derby, paired it up in the Preakness.
2007-Street Sense ran a 4.25 pt top in the Derby, paired it up in the Preakness.
2007-Hard Spun ran a 2.75 pt top in the Derby, backed up just 1 pt in the Preakness
2009-Mine That Bird ran a 6.25 pt top in the Derby, backed up just 1 pt in the Preakness (troubled trip)
2011-Animal Kingdom ran a 3.25 pt top in the Derby, backed up just 1 pt in the Preaknes
2013-Mylute ran a 2.25 pt top in the Derby, moved forward another point in Preakness
Is that enough to jar your memory?
When you consider the relatively small number of horses who\'ve run 2+ pt tops in the Derby AND run in the Preakness, that is a crazy % of horses who have come back to perform quite well on short rest, don\'t you think? Several of these were two-prep 3yo\'s going into the Derby with wide spacing, such as Mylute, who moved forward again! https://www.thorograph.com/archive/files/prk2013.pdf
\"Off the top of my head, my guess would be 50/50 for each.\"
And on that bombshell.. Good night!
Mostly right except for Street Sense, who ran back to his huge 2yo figure.
Whoops, that 2yo top buzzed over my head, but yea, the point remains solid.
Horses have paired up their Derby tops in the Preakness quite a bit, and there\'s zero evidence that \"previous large spacing between races\" is an impediment to a horse making a quick-turnaround for the first time.
What a terrible race. AP an easy winner with nobody to threaten.
You just made a great case for American Pharoah winning the Preakness.
toppled Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> You just made a great case for American Pharoah
> winning the Preakness.
Except for the fact that he\'ll be running his 3rd race in 5 weeks, which has destroyed one Triple Crown contender after another in the Belmont.
It\'s undeniable that Firing Line\'s pattern and spacing coming into the Preakness is superior to AP\'s.
You\'re crazy. You\'ve got a 3 horse race where anyone of them could bounce and the best price you\'ll get is 3-1. Make a bet for bragging rights but look somewhere else to make a score.
I\'m with you on this one. I think Firing Line is going to bounce. I will not be wagering much on this particular race, but will try and find some prices in the pick 4 and 5 and single to AP.
The problem is you\'re looking to make a \"score\" instead of just pushing your edges. Getting 3-1 (possible more) on the best pattern in a 3-horse race isn\'t shabby at all.
Just because there\'s no 1000-1 exotic payout lurking in the verticals doesn\'t mean there isn\'t opportunity and value. You don\'t always have to hit a grand slam to be a winning horse player. There are profitable singles out there to be had.
Good luck.
Jerry,
I think you and toppled are going to need more luck than Sekrah will.
How you guys can think 4-1 is not value on a horse that Toppled has as the same 50/50 to bounce as the 3-5 shot, and yet u both like the 3-5 shot, is hard to understand.
Both 50/50 to bounce. (in Toppled\'s view, not mine), but 60 cents on the dollar is better than $4 on the dollar. Over 6 times the price on a horse you give the same probability to bounce. Hmm.....
To even think about making AP the bet, I would have to believe he is 2 to 3 times less likely to bounce than FL. Then, at 1/6th the price, I could think about it.
3 horse race, 1 sort of flat lining, 1 may have tactical issues from the rail draw, along with many reasons to bounce (foot, tight spacing, late start to campaign) and 4-1 on the other isn\'t value?
Let\'s see.....
Rob
sekrah Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> jerry Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Why does it matter? From a wagering
> perspective,
> > there\'s no opportunity in the race. Any of them
> > could bomb. The only edge is betting all of
> them
> > to bomb. Not with my money. Pick another race.
>
> This is totally untrue. If you spot a vulnerable
> odds-on favorite, and there is one here, then you
> have an opportunity. Especially in a race with
> huge pools.
>
> There\'s absolutely betting opportunity in this
> race. There\'s an opportunity to aggressively push
> an edge.
Here\'s the thing, if AP is odds on and misses the board, what kind of exotics are possible?
What if the winner isn\'t Little big 3? or Little big 2, if we are factoring AP disappearance?
It\'s only eight horses, but what if AP, like his daddy, is a little fatigued and not enamored with the Pimlico surface? Pioneerof the Nile never ran again after the Preakness, it\'s not an easy race coming off a big Derby effort.
How do we know AP has affinity for Pimlico? Baffert didn\'t even work him over it. How is that possible? Oh sure, he\'s in familiar surroundings there at Churchill and it\'s a dang good track to train over, but isn\'t it neglectful to not give a horse time to acclimate over a new track? There\'s a couple scenarios right? You ship in early, arrange for a stable, maybe the water is different and lets say he trains bad over the track, then what? Well, at least you give him time to get his action better right? Give him time to get his stride worked out over that surface.
Even with a well spotted horse anything can happen, what about a young horse with a tough recent race.
Theres no sure thing and I continue to get a very odd feeling about AP.
Pretty much.
A horse can both be the most likely winner and a bet against.
Meanwhile, between h pace possibilities and FL getting caught wide if they don\'t go fast, there\'s a lot of randomness here. FL may or may not be a good bet but AP can\'t be.
AP and Firing Line aside for a second, I think the question that needs asking is whether Dortmund\'s colic affected his stamina in the Derby. If as some suggested here, Dortmund was not at his best, what if he \"strikes back\" and makes it three and one against FL? To me, though I don\'t have the info or the intuition to assess whether we saw his best in the Derby, he is the X factor here.
Seems to me I will just put Danzig Moon in third behind D, AP, and FL and figure only two of the three horses he ran behind last time will beat him this time. $6 bet x 20 and depending on who wins or doesn\'t run, it pays about 5- or maybe 10-1.
Leamas.
Leamas,
I think the colic is a potentially interesting point. But I think Dortmund is a bit interesting even if the colic wasn\'t a factor and even if the rail was OK on Derby day. I know TGJB didn\'t give it an \"X\", but it didn\'t seem to be the best place to be.
The reason I think he is a bit interesting is that I would think he would be the least likely of the big 3 to bounce. He is a big horse, has been running roughly the same race and his trainer has proven he can get them ready off the short rest and he HASN\'T had the late campaign start, foot issues and shorter rest that AP has had, plus he will also be 5 or 6 times the price of AP.
I am more of a horizontal than vertical player, and am likely to play Pick-3, Pick-4, Pick-5s into the Preakness with 70% of my money on Firing Line who I think is better than Dortmund 30% on Dortmund, with AP beating me, which I could live with. As TGJB just posted, AP can\'t be a good bet. Win or lose, can\'t put a nickel on him.
Rob
This is one time we agree. Look, let\'s say it\'s 60% AP wins, 20 he backs up but still hits the board, 20 he implodes either bouncing, because of trouble, or some random occurance. Clearly the leverage is in playing the last one even though it\'s only 20%. He\'ll be on at least 95% of the tri tickets.
And whatever he is in the win pool he\'ll be shorter in the multis, as Miff said the other day.
The problem with thinking 4 to 1 on a horse who has a 50% chance to bounce is a good bet is that it\'s still an 8 horse field. If the fav doesn\'t bounce he\'s still faster than you and he wins. 4/1 on a loser pays 0. If you\'re going for odds then bet Danzig Moon. Odds are he\'ll also pay 0 to win but at least you\'ll have the real value play & if they both bounce you\'ve got a great chance since he\'s about as fast as Dortmund at 3x the price.
I don\'t need luck on the race, I\'m not betting a win bet. My win bets this weekend will be on horses at odds higher than AP\'s.
Friday: T Sizzle 5/1 3rd race, Daniel Did It 15/1 6th, Silverville 6/1 7th, Danessa Deluxe 9/2 11th & Page McKenney 15/1 14th.
Saturday: Regal Warrior 10/1 2nd, Chiropractor 7/2 3rd, Smart N Smokin 8/1 6th, Arrive 9/2 best bet of weekend 8th, and Old Upstart 3/1 14th.
I think there\'s more value in those races than the Preskness.
Yeah, thanks for bringing it back up. He had colic on April 25th. He could be better if he had a minor infection. He could still have whatever set him back. If you think it could be a case of the former he may improve feeling better or not fighting a light infection.
Colic in horses can be difficult to get a handle on.
I\'m leaning toward your view though. Just a little more edge could be important here.
Leamas57 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> AP and Firing Line aside for a second, I think the
> question that needs asking is whether Dortmund\'s
> colic affected his stamina in the Derby. If as
> some suggested here, Dortmund was not at his best,
> what if he \"strikes back\" and makes it two and two
> against FL? To me, though I don\'t have the info or
> the intuition to assess whether we saw his best in
> the Derby, he is the X factor here.
>
> Seems to me I will just put Danzig Moon in third
> behind D, AP, and FL and figure only two of the
> three horses he ran behind last time will beat him
> this time. $6 bet x 20 and depending on who wins
> or doesn\'t run, it pays about 5- or maybe 10-1.
>
> Leamas.
The winner of the race right after the Derby never left the rail and jogged.
Toppled,
I don\'t think anybody is 50% to bounce. That was your view, not mine. Was illustrating that your own conclusion (liking AP), with your own logic (that both were 50/50 to bounce), was an awful conclusion.
Never quite understand how somebody can say 3-5 on a horse is an underlay, so they will play a horse in the pick-4 or pick 5 as a single. AP will be just as short in the multi race bets as he is in the win pool.
It would different if somebody said they think a horse is 65% percent to win, but since they don\'t bet 3/5 shots, they were going to single a horse in the multis.
I don\'t think any horse is EVER 50% to bounce.
20 to 25% is probably a \"high-ish\" number.
Rob
Yeah, essentially it\'s a value assessment as well as something not adding up regarding the horse.
For you, there\'s more security in bucking the \"odds on\" horse because statistics are telling you its the play. I\'m influenced by that in considering observations suggesting the same thing.
I\'m even intrigued by what Dortmund\'s presence suggests. Baffert said he deserves his chance and he does. I don\'t think your analysis is in accord, but I believe he has a chance to improve and I\'m still not comfortable with Firing Line\'s failure to change leads. That was novel.
In both of the last two races the rail was very good.
Good bet on Bovada.com ?
http://horses.bovada.lv/futures/EZ/2375740
Horse Racing Futures
Will American Pharoah win the Belmont Stakes?
May 16, 2015 - 05:13 PM EDT
All wagers have action.
Yes 10/11 No 10/13
I was asked a question, just threw the 50% out there without much thought and then went to the Thoro-pattern for a more definitive answer. Of course on a statistical review, 50% bounce is way too high. Basically, I\'m not doing much analysis of the race & outside of some minor action doubles, I\'m passing the race. Lots of better opportunities at Pimlico Friday & Saturday. Those are the races I spent my time on, not the Preakness. The fact that I think the 3/5 favorite will win but is not worth betting on takes any serious betting on this race out of play for me.
At some point this thread is getting ridiculous, just rehashing likes or dislikes of certain horses . It was started by someone who hated AP\'s victory and wanted his fellow anti-AP brothers to chime in saying AP will bomb. Mission accomplished. I give up, because I have little to no skin in this game. If they win, they\'re not hurting me & if I\'m right I won\'t benefit by cashing anyway, and they\'re allowed to bet their opinion & take whatever risk they feel their opinion is worth.
Toppled
Being an AP hater, as u call it, and understanding math, probabilities and expected ROI, are two different things, although technically not mutually exclusive.
Best of luck.
Rob
First of all, I did not pick AP to win. I have no opinion on the race. Second, if you think you\'re getting 4-1 on Firing Line you\'re deluded. Third, if this is the best you can do in terms of finding value, bet small.
What\'s the best pattern? Firing Line? 2 1/2 pt. top on 2 weeks rest. No thanks. If I play the race, I\'ll bet that the top 3 left it all on the track in Kentucky and just play Divining Rod and the red hot Arnaud Delacour.
toppled Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> At some point this thread is getting ridiculous,
> just rehashing likes or dislikes of certain horses
> . It was started by someone who hated AP\'s
> victory and wanted his fellow anti-AP brothers to
> chime in saying AP will bomb. Mission
> accomplished. I give up, because I have little to
> no skin in this game. If they win, they\'re not
> hurting me & if I\'m right I won\'t benefit by
> cashing anyway, and they\'re allowed to bet their
> opinion & take whatever risk they feel their
> opinion is worth.
This discussion isn\'t rehashing the likes and dislikes of certain horse. It\'s about proper wagering strategy. Putting a single on underlay chalk in the horizontals is just as a poor strategy as making a win bet on him. People do it because they like the chalk in a race, and don\'t see a way to make any money in it. People think they have to hit a Grand Slam home run every single day they go to the track or the day was a failure.
It comes down to this: If you think it\'s a bad betting race because the 3/5 favorite is an overwhelming likely winner, then singling him in a Pick 3 or Pick 4 sequence involving that race is JUST as bad and you are shooting yourself in the foot when you just said you wouldn\'t. You\'ll spread huge in the other legs and often end up with a ticket that cost more than the $189 $1 Pick 4 that people got when they singled Chrome last year.
jerry Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> First of all, I did not pick AP to win. I have no
> opinion on the race. Second, if you think you\'re
> getting 4-1 on Firing Line you\'re deluded. Third,
> if this is the best you can do in terms of finding
> value, bet small.
5dimes.Eu
Sat 5/16 115 Firing Line wins Preakness Stakes +425
That\'s okay, you\'re not the first one to have called me deluded.
ringato3 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Leamas,
>
> I think the colic is a potentially interesting
> point. But I think Dortmund is a bit interesting
> even if the colic wasn\'t a factor and even if the
> rail was OK on Derby day. I know TGJB didn\'t give
> it an \"X\", but it didn\'t seem to be the best place
> to be.
>
> The reason I think he is a bit interesting is that
> I would think he would be the least likely of the
> big 3 to bounce. He is a big horse, has been
> running roughly the same race and his trainer has
> proven he can get them ready off the short rest
> and he HASN\'T had the late campaign start, foot
> issues and shorter rest that AP has had, plus he
> will also be 5 or 6 times the price of AP.
>
> I am more of a horizontal than vertical player,
> and am likely to play Pick-3, Pick-4, Pick-5s into
> the Preakness with 70% of my money on Firing Line
> who I think is better than Dortmund 30% on
> Dortmund, with AP beating me, which I could live
> with. As TGJB just posted, AP can\'t be a good
> bet. Win or lose, can\'t put a nickel on him.
>
> Rob
Yep, if he wins, you win nothing. Horizontal, Verticals, Win pools. It doesn\'t matter. To be a successful horse player you have to be willing to wager on an outcome that is not the most likely outcome. It\'s one of the trickiest things for people to wrap their heads around. Risk aversion is not an attribute you want to possess if you want to win long-term at the races.
rhagood Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Good bet on Bovada.com ?
>
> http://horses.bovada.lv/futures/EZ/2375740
>
> Horse Racing Futures
>
> Will American Pharoah win the Belmont Stakes?
>
> May 16, 2015 - 05:13 PM EDT
>
> All wagers have action.
>
> Yes 10/11 No 10/13
Say he wins the Preakness then my opinion is no. You\'ll get far better odds on the horse that beats him. Hopefully its a 12 horse field.
Folks want to see a Triple Crown and it will happen and this could be the year, but they bet for it to happen too.
Sekar;
I understand your point to an extent..
However When is it that the obvious is the obvious and you are just throwing $$ away trying to outsmart the obvious..
sekrah Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
> This discussion isn\'t rehashing the likes and
> dislikes of certain horse. It\'s about proper
> wagering strategy. Putting a single on underlay
> chalk in the horizontals is just as a poor
> strategy as making a win bet on him. People do it
> because they like the chalk in a race, and don\'t
> see a way to make any money in it. People think
> they have to hit a Grand Slam home run every
> single day they go to the track or the day was a
> failure.
>
> It comes down to this: If you think it\'s a bad
> betting race because the 3/5 favorite is an
> overwhelming likely winner, then singling him in a
> Pick 3 or Pick 4 sequence involving that race is
> JUST as bad and you are shooting yourself in the
> foot when you just said you wouldn\'t. You\'ll
> spread huge in the other legs and often end up
> with a ticket that cost more than the $189 $1 Pick
> 4 that people got when they singled Chrome last
> year.
In an example that is likely different than yours, if you believe a 3/5 horse has a 90+% chance of winning (not AP, IMO), and you have a strong opinion on another horse or horses in a Pick 4 sequence, it can be played as if it were a Pick 3. The 3/5 shot is not so much your key as it is a free square. It will give you an unknown multiple in your sequence making its return greater than a Pick 3. This approach is looking at it differently than most of the conversation about the Preakness, in which the focus is exclusively on finding value in \"an unbettable race.\" When you start from that vantage point, it becomes a tail wagging the dog strategy, trying to force value when it may not exist, even assuming one really likes AP. For most bettors, and most certainly myself, the problem is that we are locked into certain habitual patterns of thinking in wagering strategy, and try to make them applicable to every race. If a 3/5 shot is an underlay, he\'s probably unusable in nearly any scenario. If not an underlay, then he could be viewed as leverage.
Japan provides horse weight on the incredible tote boards they have. You can easily see weight gain and loss. They also show range of payoffs for things like place bets and multi horse exotics. And they are in easy to read table form.
Although AP is most likely to win and hit Tri of top 3 there is still a chance he misses Tri due to bounce, hot pace, dirt in face, trouble, etc. in this case huge score is possible and you don\'t have to risk a ton to take a stab at it.
If Firing Line\'s 4-1 or better, I\'ll bet him. He was the wise guy horse in the derby and ran a good second. I expect no better than 5-2.
One crestfallen wise guy off. FL is wowing newbies at Pimlico with his physical presence and energy level.They may be unaware that FL has looked great since April but overt good looks to a horse coming out of a war have often fooled the best trainers in the world.The silent bounce is ever present only manifesting itself under race stress.
AP also full of beans galloping, carrying not an ounce of extra conditioning. Answers tomorrow if he has the physical attributes/resiliency to come back short race. Not a good prop at short odds, Baffert said to have given Espinoza the send sign for AP.
\"Silent bounce\" is excellent.
I\'m not a race dynamics guy, as you know, but I don\'t think enough has been made of possible chaos factors here-- AP on rail, Garcia riding another horse for Baffert (see Shared Belief), Lukas having another speed horse bought from Zayat. All kinds of possibilities from easy lead to rodeo.
There has to be some chance Garcia puts Stevens out into the parking lot. Preaknessgate?
\"There has to be some chance Garcia puts Stevens out into the parking lot\"
Agree, really feel break will be especially huge tomorrow.Also,is it a foregone conclusion that Firing Line will even clear Diving Rod early? Castellano uber aggressive rider too.
Rumors of the day:
1.Dortmund is over the top and will scratch.
2.Dortmund has lost weight since the bout with colic and was not 100% in derby,still not.
3.AP is skin and bones and looks like death(contrary to other eyes there)
4.Gary Stevens telling all his friends to bet on Firing Line
5.Casse saying Danzig M will run his eyeballs out, better now than in derby
...dont ya love it?
By the time they leave the first turn we could either be watching a boat race and starting to handicap the Belmont or total chaos leading to an unpredictable result. Much truer here than in other races.
johnnym Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Sekar;
> I understand your point to an extent..
> However When is it that the obvious is the obvious
> and you are just throwing $$ away trying to
> outsmart the obvious..
What is obvious?
jerry Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> If Firing Line\'s 4-1 or better, I\'ll bet him. He
> was the wise guy horse in the derby and ran a good
> second. I expect no better than 5-2.
Well you can get 4.25-1 on him right now, so load up an offshore book!
\"By the time they leave the first turn we could either be watching a boat race and starting to handicap the Belmont or total chaos leading to an unpredictable result. Much truer here than in other races\"
JB,
Somewhat, you just described something you are not big on, dynamics.
MIke
Yes, I know. My point was it has a lot more relevance here than usual.
Seriously, the amount of possible conspiracy theories for this one is nuts.
TGJB
Not surprised u would worried about ground loss and Stevens getting pushed wide. (Ground loss a key part of your methodology)
But have to think the chaos factor a bigger problem for AP. U get Stevens, undoubtedly one of the smartest jockeys in the game, with a long run to the turn. I trust him. Victor, stronger thsn smart, has wacko Lukas sending amongst potential other sends. And has to decide to push or take back. As a regular bettor of California, I do t want victor making split second decisions. Not his strength
Plus, by definition, chaos and \"x factor\" hurts a 3/5 shot more than others - the math hard to overcome betting 3/5 without chaos. (at least until the gates open!)
Rob
My thoughts after reading this thread and others on this excellent site: If AP loses the Preakness, there goes all the value on the Belmont. So, I am thinking of using use half of my allotted Preakness/ Belmont bankroll betting against AP in the Preakness. If AP wins, I use the other half to bet against an extreme AP underlay in the Belmont. Only other option for me is not to bet the Preakness and hope AP wins and then use the entire bankroll as a bet against AP in the Belmont. Your thoughts and how are you betting it?
Reminds me of 2006 Preakness. Barbaro looked like as sure a thing as you would see, and also had 6 weeks between his FL Derby and the KY Derby if I remember correctly, which was almost unheard of then. Lots of talk about how that extra spacing was going to help him now (similar to what Sek has been saying about Firing Line).
I was at the track with my father on Preakness day, just he and I, and he insisted that I give him a Preakness bet. I said it was a pass race for me unless Barbaro looked bad in the paddock, which he didn\'t by the way. 20 minutes before the race my dad still insisted I give him a bet. So I told him if he had to be a degenerate here it was, and I wrote down TRI 6,7,8/6,7,8/ALL for whatever amount he wanted. He walked up and put that bet in. As they loaded, Barbaro broke through the gate and it dawned on me immediately that Barbaro was maybe going to go off form (never have really seen a horse run a top after breaking through the gate, not saying it hasn\'t happened but the percentages are poor). I was up and running to the window immediately, and I mean immediately, figuring I would still have enough time to get my bet in as the vet looked at Barbaro etc. But instead they wheeled him right around and put him back in with just a cursory check and they were off within a minute, so I got shut out. I got back to my father right around the time Barbaro broke down and said, \"You are going to win that damn bet and make a wad.\" He cashed his ticket and tipped me a couple hundred as I recall and said \"Good Bet Boy. Thanks.\"
My point being that it was a very unhappy moment for a lot of reasons and one you could not see coming. And unless someone has a piece of information about the Preakness this year that I don\'t have access to, there is no way this is a good betting race. It may be a good gambling race if you want to gamble, but it\'s not a good betting race if you are thinking you have an edge because you don\'t. And I don\'t mean to sound arrogant there. I\'m simply saying that if you bet your opinion and turn out to be right good for you. But the percentages just based on looking at their sheets can\'t be much more than 50/50 either way with any of these colts. There are just way to many variables this year. And I do not trust a public comment by a trainer or a race track rumor in any way shape or form.
I want to play AP to bounce and hope to see some visual evidence that gives me the confidence to do so. And I want to see it myself or hear it from someone with eyes that I completely trust.
I have no choice but to wait until the last minute on this one.
Espinoza has some interesting stats. Check them out on AP\'s sheet.
I made a pretty big bet against Barbaro at Betfair. The difference between him and FL is that he was coming off a bigger top and much more development from his 2yo top-- and was much shorter, obviously.
First two bets I made on Betfair were against Barbaro and on Crash to win best picture.
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I made a pretty big bet against Barbaro at
> Betfair. The difference between him and FL is that
> he was coming off a bigger top and much more
> development from his 2yo top-- and was much
> shorter, obviously.
>
> First two bets I made on Betfair were against
> Barbaro and on Crash to win best picture.
Bingo. Another knock against Barbaro is that he was sock full of turf breeding. In my experience, turf bred horses who run big on dirt, bounce harder.
Another thing, Firing Line doesn\'t HAVE to run. They are choosing to run him. Barbaro had to run, and there\'s plenty of whispers around that he wasn\'t quite his normal self that day.
Ring-- agree about randomness making it bad to bet odds-on favorites (which people don\'t take into account enough, especially bridge jumpers). But what I mean by chaos is not necessarily chaos in the race, but chaos in terms of the possibilities (randomness). And if there is chaos in the race itself (turns into a rodeo), it could easily work against both the two best horses. So as I said it could quickly become apparent we\'re looking at AP saving ground on an easy lead with FL wide, or... rodeo. Or something else.
More true here than in most cases.
I get it. And every one of those points can be factored in to how you view the percentages. Getting 3-1 or 4-1 on FL helps offset those percentages much better than taking 3/5 on AP. And if the math works for you at those numbers and you feel you are getting the risk offset by the potential reward then good for you. We all have different levels of risk aversion.
For me, there\'s too much risk to take FL at 3-1 or even 4-1 to win. And you probably need AP off the board entirely to leverage that up in the verticals, but you would also then be taking on more risk and that would offset that leverage. So I don\'t see a vertical play in this race.
There may be enough leverage in the horizontals by just beating AP though. So I could see doing that. Even if you don\'t really like anything in the other races you could probably still spread a bit and single FL on the bottom if you feel that strongly about him. I did really well in the Breeders Cup a few years ago by playing the Pick 4 that way and singling Blame to beat Zenyatta on every ticket, playing against Goldikova and having some narrow opinions in the other two races, and singling Goldikova and spreading in the other two races on those tickets. That strategy could work here depending upon how you feel about the other races. And I\'m not redboarding as I posted those opinions here before those BC races.
Lots and Lots of great advice here. First off I want to reply to Gary Stevens telling his friends to bet on firing line. I believe it was also Gary stevens who once proclaimed Mr. Frisky as the best horse he had ever ridden. He is a jock who is prone to overstatement.
As for trying to put a wager together I am still lost. The more I think about it the more I cant get over the fact that FL had the absolute dream set up in the Derby and could not get it done. I doubt he will get that set up again. I was surprised at his odds on Derby day but I think that was more due to the fact that the track was playing heavily in his favor. Thinking of making this guy a complete toss. This trainer has no experience in getting a horse ready on a schedule and for an event such as this.
I also agree that AP is very likely to bounce off his 3rd race in five weeks especially with that taxing of an effort in the derby. Still a solid horse and weak field could help him win. Wont take him completely out but wont use him on top either
I think I will put Dortmund and DM on top of all tickets. Dortmund may have been ailing a little bit and still fought on well. If he is a healthier horse this time he may be able to turn the tables. It has always been easier to wire the field for the Preakness then in the derby. Massive horse with long strides may also be able to recover quicker. Baffert is a proven trainer in getting a horse ready for Preakness success. That is my story and I am sticking to it.
Couldn\'t agree more.
sekrah Wrote:
> It comes down to this: If you think it\'s a bad
> betting race because the 3/5 favorite is an
> overwhelming likely winner, then singling him in a
> Pick 3 or Pick 4 sequence involving that race is
> JUST as bad and you are shooting yourself in the
> foot when you just said you wouldn\'t. You\'ll
> spread huge in the other legs and often end up
> with a ticket that cost more than the $189 $1 Pick
> 4 that people got when they singled Chrome last
> year.
Not necessarily true Sek.
How much did the $1 Pick 4 pay when Smarty Jones won at odds on??
Just looked up the others. 11/1, 5/2, 4/1. Along with the 3/5 Smarty Jones this $1 P4 paid around $750. Not bad.
Nobody needs to spend $189 to hit a nice P4 if the prohibitive chalk wins. You just need to find a couple good ones in the other races. You don\'t need to find ridiculous bombs either.
The 4/1 winner had a poor 4/5 shot that lost. The 5/2 was really strong on TG. And the 11/1 had the fastest TG number on the turf. I played a really cheap ticket on the first 3 legs (singled the 5/2 and 4/1 shots, played 2 others with the 11/1), and spread (4 or 5 can\'t remember which) in the Preakness trying for a bigger score. I know I cashed for $1500 so it was a $2 P4.
I remember that day very clearly. Went with 3 buddies who are very good handicappers. I used TG, they were straight racing form guys. I was the only one with a winning ticket, and tried for 10 minutes to get them to play Mr O\'Brien who was the 11/1 shot. Nope, class challenged. He wasn\'t TG challenged.
Shared Belief was a free square on Big Cap Day, P4 paid $1600 for a buck.
For those trying to beat AP, can\'t blame you. But don\'t dismiss those that choose to play him in horizontals, because those can pay just fine too.
P-Dub Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> sekrah Wrote:
>
> > It comes down to this: If you think it\'s a bad
> > betting race because the 3/5 favorite is an
> > overwhelming likely winner, then singling him in
> a
> > Pick 3 or Pick 4 sequence involving that race
> is
> > JUST as bad and you are shooting yourself in
> the
> > foot when you just said you wouldn\'t. You\'ll
> > spread huge in the other legs and often end up
> > with a ticket that cost more than the $189 $1
> Pick
> > 4 that people got when they singled Chrome last
> > year.
>
> Not necessarily true Sek.
>
> How much did the $1 Pick 4 pay when Smarty Jones
> won at odds on??
>
> Just looked up the others. 11/1, 5/2, 4/1. Along
> with the 3/5 Smarty Jones this $1 P4 paid around
> $750. Not bad.
>
> Nobody needs to spend $189 to hit a nice P4 if the
> prohibitive chalk wins. You just need to find a
> couple good ones in the other races. You don\'t
> need to find ridiculous bombs either.
>
> The 4/1 winner had a poor 4/5 shot that lost. The
> 5/2 was really strong on TG. And the 11/1 had the
> fastest TG number on the turf. I played a really
> cheap ticket on the first 3 legs (singled the 5/2
> and 4/1 shots, played 2 others with the 11/1), and
> spread (4 or 5 can\'t remember which) in the
> Preakness trying for a bigger score. I know I
> cashed for $1500 so it was a $2 P4.
>
> I remember that day very clearly. Went with 3
> buddies who are very good handicappers. I used TG,
> they were straight racing form guys. I was the
> only one with a winning ticket, and tried for 10
> minutes to get them to play Mr O\'Brien who was the
> 11/1 shot. Nope, class challenged. He wasn\'t TG
> challenged.
>
> Shared Belief was a free square on Big Cap Day, P4
> paid $1600 for a buck.
>
> For those trying to beat AP, can\'t blame you. But
> don\'t dismiss those that choose to play him in
> horizontals, because those can pay just fine too.
Here\'s my argument to this, and I\'ll use your Shared Belief example. The Race 10 Pick 3 that day paid $1164. The increase to $1600 was about 0.37, his off-odds were 0.30, so you squeezed a hair extra value out of it, but you essentially risked $1164 on a 2/5 shot. How often have you placed an $1100 bet on a 2/5 shot in your life?
Pick 3 would have been the better horizontal to play.
P-Dub,
You\'re bringing back good memories, Mr. O\'Brien may have been the last ticket I\'ve cashed on a Preakness Day! I exaggerate, but only slightly...
Haven\'t handicapped tomorrow yet, other than looking at the ROTW. Only thought I had so far was that if I liked one or more of the other legs, might take a stab at the P4, singling on Danzig Moon in the hopes that a hot pace softens up the favorites and a pair-up or slight forward move off the pair is enough to get him there. But your point about the Smarty Jones P4 is a good one and something to consider for tomorrow.
sekrah Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> P-Dub Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > sekrah Wrote:
> >
> > > It comes down to this: If you think it\'s a
> bad
> > > betting race because the 3/5 favorite is an
> > > overwhelming likely winner, then singling him
> in
> > a
> > > Pick 3 or Pick 4 sequence involving that race
> > is
> > > JUST as bad and you are shooting yourself in
> > the
> > > foot when you just said you wouldn\'t. You\'ll
> > > spread huge in the other legs and often end
> up
> > > with a ticket that cost more than the $189 $1
> > Pick
> > > 4 that people got when they singled Chrome
> last
> > > year.
> >
> > Not necessarily true Sek.
> >
> > How much did the $1 Pick 4 pay when Smarty
> Jones
> > won at odds on??
> >
> > Just looked up the others. 11/1, 5/2, 4/1.
> Along
> > with the 3/5 Smarty Jones this $1 P4 paid
> around
> > $750. Not bad.
> >
> > Nobody needs to spend $189 to hit a nice P4 if
> the
> > prohibitive chalk wins. You just need to find a
> > couple good ones in the other races. You don\'t
> > need to find ridiculous bombs either.
> >
> > The 4/1 winner had a poor 4/5 shot that lost.
> The
> > 5/2 was really strong on TG. And the 11/1 had
> the
> > fastest TG number on the turf. I played a
> really
> > cheap ticket on the first 3 legs (singled the
> 5/2
> > and 4/1 shots, played 2 others with the 11/1),
> and
> > spread (4 or 5 can\'t remember which) in the
> > Preakness trying for a bigger score. I know I
> > cashed for $1500 so it was a $2 P4.
> >
> > I remember that day very clearly. Went with 3
> > buddies who are very good handicappers. I used
> TG,
> > they were straight racing form guys. I was the
> > only one with a winning ticket, and tried for
> 10
> > minutes to get them to play Mr O\'Brien who was
> the
> > 11/1 shot. Nope, class challenged. He wasn\'t TG
> > challenged.
> >
> > Shared Belief was a free square on Big Cap Day,
> P4
> > paid $1600 for a buck.
> >
> > For those trying to beat AP, can\'t blame you.
> But
> > don\'t dismiss those that choose to play him in
> > horizontals, because those can pay just fine
> too.
>
>
> Here\'s my argument to this, and I\'ll use your
> Shared Belief example. The Race 10 Pick 3 that
> day paid $1164. The increase to $1600 was about
> 0.37, his off-odds were 0.30, so you squeezed a
> hair extra value out of it, but you essentially
> risked $1164 on a 2/5 shot. How often have you
> placed an $1100 bet on a 2/5 shot in your life?
>
> Pick 3 would have been the better horizontal to
> play.
You\'re missing something.
I and others (JB) played 3/4 others in case the favorite lost.
Nothing wrong with adding the 3/5 shot as insurance in case he still wins. If he loses the P4 paid huge. The chalk won so it didn\'t, but still an IRS ticket.
Saying the P3 would have been a better bet dollar for dollar is the same as saying water is wet. Its obvious and not the point of this discussion.
You think I was rooting for Smarty to win that race? Of course not, the others were paying 5-10X what he paid.
You\'re saying its pointless to play an odds on horse in verticals. I\'ve given examples it isn\'t. Adding an odds on to the ticket, having him win, and getting less of a return beats ripping up a \"value\" ticket that pays nothing.
The odds on horse has to have a shot to win. There\'s a difference between playing an odds on horse with a chance to win, while acknowledging that others have a chance to win, and playing an odds on shot with little to no shot at winning (Preachinatthebar was a terrible 4/5 shot that day to the 4/1 winner).
As for Shared Belief, there was zero chance he lost that race unless Smith fell off the horse. None. You basically get a P4 at a P3 price and getting a premium. What\'s wrong with that?? And I had the P3 you talked about, but that didn\'t keep me from playing the P4. Separate pool, money to be won.
Hard to pass up Dortmund at 7-1
P-Dub, my bad, when you said Shared Belief was a \"free square\", I assumed you singled him. Playing a single on Shared Belief makes no sense to me, even if you think Smith would have had to fall off.
Of the big three he is the only one not to hit a new top with only 2 weeks rest. That could work in his favor and at 8-1 very hard to pass up.
sekrah Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> P-Dub, my bad, when you said Shared Belief was a
> \"free square\", I assumed you singled him. Playing
> a single on Shared Belief makes no sense to me,
> even if you think Smith would have had to fall
> off.
I singled him in the Big Cap. There are no sure things, but to me, the only way he loses is if Smith falls off. And he pretty much won like it.
You said the payouts were 1164 for the buck P3. The P4 paid $1600. This string is littered with comments by many about perceived \"value\". The tote said .30, which to me was an overlay. The horse should have been 1/9 against that bunch, on that day, at that track.
Getting $1600 in the P4 was the same as getting $1164 in the P3. You get a $326 bonus for playing an extra race with a horse that, in my estimation, wins that race 9 times out of 10.
If you believe that is \"squeezing a hair of value\" out of it, then that is your opinion of the value in the race. And its one you\'re entitled to.
However, you can\'t make post after post about what YOU perceive as value in a 4/1 shot in a race that many see as unplayable, and then in the next breath tell me what the value was in the race I played. My opinion on that race sequence is valid to me, just as your opinion on the Preakness is valid to you. I may disagree that there is value in the race, but that doesn\'t make me right.
If the horse goes off at what I thought he SHOULD have gone off, then the P4 makes perfect sense.
You put in horizontals without knowing what the payouts are going to be, or what the odds on a specific horse is going to be in future races. I didn\'t know if SB was going to be 1/9, 1/5, or 4/5. Give me a crystal ball, and I\'ll make the perfect wager every time.
The Preakness, for me, is probably unplayable. But if you have an opinion, and find value in it, I\'m not gonna call you crazy. Whomever had the winner of the Black Eyed Susan today, a race I had a live P4 going to 4 horses and whiffed, had an opinion completely different than me. They cashed, i didn\'t.
Great game.
Let\'s agree to disagree.
(1) I think I got in trouble on this race. I was wagering from my computer and watched Barbaro hammer through the gate and Duly hammered my exacta of Bernardini and Sweet Northern Saint. Boxed though. It was really all I had time to do. Was working on increasing extended exotics but that was all she wrote.
Can\'t remember why I thought Barbaro was going to go south, but I did. When the gate incident happened I was certain.
Agree, when they bust through it is generally a very bad sign. A favorite busting through rarely wins. There\'s an energy and psychological effect. That\'s right, equine psychology.
I\'m really hesitant to say it, but I have a similar feeling about AP, but am off to review his recent works someone here crowed about.
T Sev
mjellish Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Reminds me of 2006 Preakness. Barbaro looked like
> as sure a thing as you would see, and also had 6
> weeks between his FL Derby and the KY Derby if I
> remember correctly, which was almost unheard of
> then. Lots of talk about how that extra spacing
> was going to help him now (similar to what Sek has
> been saying about Firing Line).
>
> I was at the track with my father on Preakness
> day, just he and I, and he insisted that I give
> him a Preakness bet. I said it was a pass race
> for me unless Barbaro looked bad in the paddock,
> which he didn\'t by the way. 20 minutes before the
> race my dad still insisted I give him a bet. So I
> told him if he had to be a degenerate here it was,
> and I wrote down TRI 6,7,8/6,7,8/ALL for whatever
> amount he wanted. He walked up and put that bet
> in. As they loaded, Barbaro broke through the
> gate and it dawned on me immediately that Barbaro
> was maybe going to go off form (never have really
> seen a horse run a top after breaking through the
> gate, not saying it hasn\'t happened but the
> percentages are poor). I was up and running to
> the window immediately, and I mean immediately,
> figuring I would still have enough time to get my
> bet in as the vet looked at Barbaro etc. But
> instead they wheeled him right around and put him
> back in with just a cursory check and they were
> off within a minute, so I got shut out. I got
> back to my father right around the time Barbaro
> broke down and said, \"You are going to win that
> damn bet and make a wad.\" He cashed his ticket
> and tipped me a couple hundred as I recall and
> said \"Good Bet Boy. Thanks.\"
>
> My point being that it was a very unhappy moment
> for a lot of reasons and one you could not see
> coming. And unless someone has a piece of
> information about the Preakness this year that I
> don\'t have access to, there is no way this is a
> good betting race. It may be a good gambling race
> if you want to gamble, but it\'s not a good betting
> race if you are thinking you have an edge because
> you don\'t. And I don\'t mean to sound arrogant
> there. I\'m simply saying that if you bet your
> opinion and turn out to be right good for you.
> But the percentages just based on looking at their
> sheets can\'t be much more than 50/50 either way
> with any of these colts. There are just way to
> many variables this year. And I do not trust a
> public comment by a trainer or a race track rumor
> in any way shape or form.
>
> I want to play AP to bounce and hope to see some
> visual evidence that gives me the confidence to do
> so. And I want to see it myself or hear it from
> someone with eyes that I completely trust.
>
> I have no choice but to wait until the last minute
> on this one.
I don\'t bet off shore but thanks for the suggestion.
Wondering how much you like him at 5-2 in the early on track wagering? Still a play?
Verticals were good. AP was not most likely to bomb. Firing Line was. Covello was right. Storms came in as scheduled, not later.
AP should have something left for the Belmont. He sure didn\'t get whipped 30 times today. They came up and he blew them off on his own, hand ridden to the wire. Especially impressive since he got out of the gate fast too. Will be interesting to see him butt heads early with Materiality if that\'s what\'s coming.
Slowest race since 1956.