There\'s been a lot of talk about pretty much nothing here recently, but a surprising lack of discussion of two words that really matter. The first one is Firing.
His sheet is quite similar to AP\'s, with a top that wins if he pairs and AP goes back a couple. And he will be what ... 7/2 versus AP\'s 3/5?
Not sure there are any other two words you are thinking of besides \"firing line\", but I am going to assume not.
Beautiful progressive line. Never gone backwards. Two year old top of 3, beautiful spacing this year, 6 weeks into the Derby, should be relatively fresh, it was a 2 point new top, so maybe he can pair, while AP seems more likely to bounce for a number of reasons (late start, rushed campaign, foot problems, faster figure in the Derby), while Dortmund is flatlining a bit. harder to forecast him running the new top he would likely need, unless you want to give him a pass for the colic.
Firing Line is all quality. He was better than Dortmund the 1st time they raced, but Dortmund tripped out, and I could argue he was better than Dortmund the second time they met, albeit a tougher argument. (Stevens moved early and got outmuscled late?)
Firing Line at 4-1 or so would seem to be the only sensible bet to make from a pattern, numbers, etc perspective.
Just one point that I would put in the intangible bracket. I have watched the Derby replay 20 times. Isolating the top 3 finishers a few times each. It is clear to me that of the top 3 finishers, AP was running least comfortably of them through the first mile. Espinoza niggled on him twice or so to keep up. Firing Line was running the smoothest of all, and as somebody who bet on him, I thought he was a winner. Stevens looked like he felt he could take Dortmund any time he wanted to. Even turning for home he still looked best to me. But then the last portion of the race he emptied out. You could analyze that two ways. Glass half full would be that he was caught in a Baffert sandwich. HAd to put away the undefeated Dortmund and then try and hold off AP, the wonder-horse. He worked harder than either one. (despite the wider trip of AP, he got a comfortable wide trip). The Glass half empty would be that Firing Line is 1 1/8 horse at best and he just ran out of breeding the end of the race, which is why he got beat.
At 4-1, with Materiality out, Firing Line is still the bet, but only because no other good bet exists.
Rob
ringato3 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Not sure there are any other two words you are
> thinking of besides \"firing line\", but I am going
> to assume not.
>
> Beautiful progressive line. Never gone backwards.
> Two year old top of 3, beautiful spacing this
> year, 6 weeks into the Derby, should be relatively
> fresh, it was a 2 point new top, so maybe he can
> pair, while AP seems more likely to bounce for a
> number of reasons (late start, rushed campaign,
> foot problems, faster figure in the Derby), while
> Dortmund is flatlining a bit. harder to forecast
> him running the new top he would likely need,
> unless you want to give him a pass for the colic.
>
>
> Firing Line is all quality. He was better than
> Dortmund the 1st time they raced, but Dortmund
> tripped out, and I could argue he was better than
> Dortmund the second time they met, albeit a
> tougher argument. (Stevens moved early and got
> outmuscled late?)
>
> Firing Line at 4-1 or so would seem to be the only
> sensible bet to make from a pattern, numbers, etc
> perspective.
>
> Just one point that I would put in the intangible
> bracket. I have watched the Derby replay 20
> times. Isolating the top 3 finishers a few times
> each. It is clear to me that of the top 3
> finishers, AP was running least comfortably of
> them through the first mile. Espinoza niggled on
> him twice or so to keep up. Firing Line was
> running the smoothest of all, and as somebody who
> bet on him, I thought he was a winner. Stevens
> looked like he felt he could take Dortmund any
> time he wanted to. Even turning for home he still
> looked best to me. But then the last portion of
> the race he emptied out. You could analyze that
> two ways. Glass half full would be that he was
> caught in a Baffert sandwich. HAd to put away the
> undefeated Dortmund and then try and hold off AP,
> the wonder-horse. He worked harder than either
> one. (despite the wider trip of AP, he got a
> comfortable wide trip). The Glass half empty
> would be that Firing Line is 1 1/8 horse at best
> and he just ran out of breeding the end of the
> race, which is why he got beat.
>
> At 4-1, with Materiality out, Firing Line is still
> the bet, but only because no other good bet
> exists.
>
> Rob
Assuming your glass is half empty is true, isn\'t the cut back in distance a plus? Seems to me this race is the be all end all for this horse. If your analysis about stamina is correct, can\'t imagine he could be that strong for the Belmont. Seems best to fire his bullet here and then go to the Haskell. he seems like the type of horse that always wins the Haskell. of course, Baffert sort of owns that race, but that could make things interesting.
Firing Line was trained to the nines for the derby,bravely fired his best shot.Horses running big figs,off longish spacing(6 weeks),then coming back short rest,not my cup of tea.His failure to change leads the entire stretch may signal stressing in that area where he was shock waved, twice.
FL reportedly looks great out of derby,energetic gallops, came back to the track a day or so faster than AP and Dortmund.Is FL hiding the dreaded \"silent bounce\"? Was the Derby a gut wrencher for FL?...let you know as they approach the far turn.
SoCalMan2,
I think the cutback helps. For sure. And I will/would love him for the Haskell.
I think Firing Line is all class. That said, he has lost three heartbreakers in a row.
Wouldn\'t play Firing Line the Belmont, no matter how he runs Saturday. The \"relatively fresh\" statement would no longer be true, he isn\'t bred for it and doesn\'t look like one who will get better as they go longer. And would be facing at least two that are faster at their tops (Materiality and Frosted).
He should be 4-1 and if the Susans/Preakness double with Baffert filly Luminance approaches $20, it will be \"all in\" for me.
Rob
Agree with your point. which is why Materiality at 8-1 was more interesting to me.
But you can only play with the cards you are dealt, or not play at all.
Me things trip/position/wide all factored in, Firing Line ran as well as AP in the Derby. And think AP slightly more likely to go backwards because of late start to campaign, foot problems, visually tougher race, and much worse spacing related to late start. Even if I make them equal to bounce, one bet pays $4 for $1 the other 60 cents for a dollar, 1/6th as much.
Rob
Half Full - Bet FL to win
Half Empty - Toss FL from contention
No overlay = No Bet
Dortmund Firing looks to be a better price.
Plus or minus twenty contenders @ CD. Four or Five @ Pim. (not counting the slugs) the derby connections believe the three amigos plus one optimist are simple too good at this point. I don\'t argue with stop signs. But I do know people who will!
Ho Ummm
Seriously doubt you will get 4-1 on Firing Line on Saturday with the field that\'s lining up. The Maryland horses will not take much money, ditto the Stewart horse if he goes. They\'re taking a stab with Divining Rod IMO but perhaps he takes some sentimental money because of the Barbaro team. As for Danzig Moon, well perhaps that\'s where your value comes from. I think he can be there with the right ride. Thought he was a bit too close in the Derby.
I agree with Miff. I loved FL in the Derby. Ran his eyeballs out and Callaghan had him ready to fire his A race.The failure to change leads in the lane cost him the race and is not something I want to follow up with especially at 3-1 or less odds (yes, many folks out there that actually believe the 1/16th of a mile shorter will get him the Black-Eyed Susans).
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Anybody concerned about Firing Line\'s unwillingness to switch leads down the stretch of the Derby? I think its very possible that the horse could be sporting a small injury of some sort, perhaps a knee chip?
If you are ok with the lack of lead change, then Firing Line is your Preakness key.
\"The Glass half empty would be that Firing Line is 1 1/8 horse at best and he just ran out of breeding the end of the race, which is why he got beat.\"
How big of a top did Firing Line need to run at 10F to prove that 9F is not his limit?
Also: In the Derby, if Stevens had taken him back farther early, and then closed late to finish in exactly the same place and earn exactly the same figure, would that have proven that he doesn\'t hate 10F?
I don\'t like the refusal to change leads either. I was all in with FL last week.
Shaping up to be a non-betting race for me. Plenty of undercard races to play. I\'m hoping AP wins, setting up the excitement for another TC hopeful and the requisite wagering options for that race.
AP will be an underlay, FL and Dort 2/3 choices. Can you really play those horses at those prices with any confidence??
Value in the eye of the beholder.
I think it is a 3 horse race. Unfortunately the obvious 3. If the one I think is best positioned of the 3 to win is about 4-1, that is value - for me.
Believe you are wrong about 3-1. Then again yesterday you had Materiality as second choice if he ran, which was not possible. We will see.
Last year Chrome went of at 1-2 $2.00 tri payed $76.00.
3 horse box tri maybe AP doesn\'t win..
Won\'t risk near as much as I did Derby..
Good Luck
Rich,
Not sure why you want to pick a fight on this. I like Firing Line and will be betting him. I pointed to the figures that support it.
However, I have eyes and I use them. Approaching far turn and into the early stretch FL looked a winner to me. Then emptied out and lost to a horse that Espinoza was pushing on MUCH EARLIER in the race. When I see a horse that is trying a new distance and looks good and then fades a bit late IN ANY RACE I take a look at distance as one of the potential problems. When the sire is Line of David and many sharp handicappers felt he was distance challenged based on his second race against Dortmund, I have to take a HARD LOOK at it.
You don\'t have to.
I looked at it. Still think he might be, but think the price and quality of the horse and the lack of viable alternatives make him the right play - for me.
Rob
\"Not sure why you want to pick a fight on this.\"
Yeah, those two questions I asked you were quite an assault.
Seven weeks rest he runs a 1
Six weeks rest he pairs the 1
Six weeks -1.5 in the race where it made sense to like him off the pairs and timing(I don\'t have much sense-didn\'t like him)at 10-1.
Now off a big effort while bearing out and only two weeks as the second choice no thanks.I can only play him to go backwards here.
I see zero reason why Firing Line can\'t run a big race on Saturday. Zero. His spacing into the Derby is an ADVANTAGE for a quick turnaround, not a disadvantage. This horse should be fresher than AP and Dortmund.
Big,
First of all, I don\'t think he is second choice. Dortmund will be, but that is splitting hairs.
So, which horse do u want off the two weeks rest? The bar shoe wearing, late start to the campaign, hit 32 times, 60 cents on the dollar AP?
Or the flatlining dortmund, who hasn\'t run better than a 1 and will be same or shorter price than firing line?
Or u want to take a stab on a slow newcomer?
I come from the other board, where AP\'s sheet frankly looks better, coming in pairing up. And nobody wants him there. Here, where he looks potential bounce to the moon, all kinds of posts about looking for value around him, because he will win. Lining up for 3/5.
Don\'t get it.
Oh well. That\'s racing
Rob
That\'s why 6 different sheet readers can come up with 6 different opinions!
I didn\'t like Firing Line for the Derby; he ran his A game race IMHO and horses who always just seem to get beat seem to often find a reason to get beat? Granted this is a classy horse with a healthy pattern BUT the not changing leads really turns me off him. Add in the fact that he will be 7/2 or 4/1 as opposed to his Derby price gets a no thank you here.
I\'ve expressed my opinion on AP believing he is on fumes after the Derby.
Dortmund hasn\'t bounced, one could say he also hasn\'t run fast enough either?
However: I believe of the 3 front runners in the Derby he took the worst of it.
He set the pace comfortable or not, was the \"most inside\" no X on Derby day but to my eyes the outside paths were better.
Someone earlier posted about not taking a negative number to win the Preakness and I can see a zero or even a 1 getting the job done here.
TGJB re thinking the Tampa Derby may soften Danzig Moon\'s high number although it was still a a big X in my mind. Lot\'s of really good horses have run off numbers at that track over the years, a lot like Churchill in that respect?
Anyway without a big field not much drama to the draw, AP can win for sure and would have to include him in horizontals as a saver \"Smarty Jones\" but I\'m leaning on pressing Danzig Moon and Dortmund on top and making that exacta and maybe 1,2 and 1,3 in tris and supers. Definitely not a great race to get too involved with IMHO.
Good luck,
Frank D.
With no real speed in Preakness and Dortmund supposedly not going to front(better w/target) could shape up as AP and FL flanking each other up front.Seems the positional winner of the draw will be the one posted outside the other 2 main rivals.
Draw could be meaningful re strategy for Stevens, Espinoza, Garcia.
Mike,
I have to defer to my eyes as opposed to pace or performance figs for AP & FL.
A completely gut wrenching effort for both of them on a very Heavy race track, I can see a BIG clunker for one or both of them on Saturday.
We\'ll see,
Frank D.
Frank D
Just curious. If firing line had been 2-1 in the derby and all other factors equal, would u now like him at 4-1?
I am asking not to be a smart ass, as I have heard many people say things like what u said. But I don\'t understand why does it matter what odds the horse was in the previous race. What are the odds today and what chance does he have today. If he was 99-1 in the derby wouldn\'t matter to me as far as betting the preakness.
Rob
I thought Firing Line looked fabulous galloping past the line in the Derby. Looked like he could have ticked off another 2f in sub-27 which would have been amazing that day. Pharaoh looked done.
Rob,
Did not like him at 2, 10, 15 or 50/1. IMHO he was very suspect to get the distance and he had 2 chances previously to prevail over Dortmund and could not get the job done. His failure to change leads in the lane really has my concern to a hidden physical issue.
My Derby tri and super plays had only AP and Dortmund 1,2 & 1,3 I did not use FL or Frosted in either sequence.
Good luck,
Frank D.
Frank,
Reasonable to think AP/FL could implode, tough read but both looking well this week in training which can be deceiving.
See a real possibility of those two up front controlling until crunch time, late.Not a great betting race vertically but a very interesting race for me as far as tactics go.
Mike
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Frank,
>
> Reasonable to think AP/FL could implode, tough
> read but both looking well this week in training
> which can be deceiving.
>
> See a real possibility of those two up front
> controlling until crunch time, late.Not a great
> betting race vertically but a very interesting
> race for me as far as tactics go.
>
>
> Mike
As Frank has mentioned, FL did not change leads in the stretch. The question is why -- tired, slight injury, still learning, other reason? I think if he did switch, he possibly (probably) would have won. I don\'t think FL would be running if he had a problem so I am ruling that out.
I expect he will improve -- pattern is good, race is shorter, and I expect him to change leads this time. Espinoza shut AP down right after the wire. Not a good betting race but one in which I will try to beat a heavy favorite.
I have to say that one thing I think is interesting about this Preakness, whether you regard it as a good betting race or not, is how the jockey tactics may influence the race. None of the top three need the lead, but they all seem comfortable assuming it if it is given to them easily. Would guess that any one of the connections, if given the choice, would prefer a garden spot trip in the pocket while letting the other two duel eye to eye through moderately fast fractions for the lead. But what happens if no one sends? Bodhisattva and Divining Rod have enough early lick to send if they want to.
I noticed how Stevens deliberately took FL out wide on the second turn in the KY Derby to keep him away from looking Dortmund in the eye. That wound up costing some ground and floating AP wide. But it was also a pretty brilliant piece of riding strategy IMO because I think Dortmund ran better when he was right next to his competition in the stretch, and Stevens knew it. Some colts are like that. Silver Charm was like that. Touch Gold got the better of him by employing similar tactics. But if they had gotten the chance to race against each other two weeks later I don\'t think Stevens on Charm would have let them get away with that again. And I don\'t think Garcia will make the same mistake again on Dortmund. Would think he would want a target to run at. Maybe they both let AP go for the lead?
Interesting dynamic regardless. A few other thoughts.
Very tough race to make a confident play IMO.
As a rule, I don\'t like colts who have not had a recent history of lead change problems who suddenly seem to develop them. Stevens has flat out said he guarantees FL will change leads in Preakness but has not offered up a reason as to why he didn\'t in Louisville. FL also leaned out badly on AP in deep stretch. And I did not think he or the other top two galloped out well at all. They all looked gassed to me.
No clue what to make of Dortmund Colic thing. I heard about that two days prior to Derby but was told it was minor and nothing to worry about. You never know though. I think being on the rail the whole trip was worse, but who knows. He may not want the distance, which is hard to believe given that stride of his. And if you assume the colic thing hurt him, he\'s not necessarily going to rebound here. Racing in the derby may have knocked him out entirely. So to me, you either say the rail was dead and Dort got the worst of it or you can\'t play him to turn the tables here.
Playing AP to bounce would seem to be the play, but it\'s kind of tricky because he hasn\'t bounced yet and doesn\'t have to here, but he\'s probably going off at close to 1/2 odds.
To be honest, I think I will be on the fence on how, or even if, to play this one until I see them in the paddock. Which means the horizontals are probably out unless I really like something in one of the undercards and feel I can spread or at least be in a position to hedge in the Preakness.
Super Saver looked terrible in the Preakness Paddock.
Man, I want to play AP to bounce...
I agree with all of this. Great observations. 3/5 shots are supposed to be sure things. AP isn\'t but still hard to dismiss (but I will) because he will be 3/5.
mjellish Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I have to say that one thing I think is
> interesting about this Preakness, whether you
> regard it as a good betting race or not, is how
> the jockey tactics may influence the race. None
> of the top three need the lead, but they all seem
> comfortable assuming it if it is given to them
> easily. Would guess that any one of the
> connections, if given the choice, would prefer a
> garden spot trip in the pocket while letting the
> other two duel eye to eye through moderately fast
> fractions for the lead. But what happens if no
> one sends? Bodhisattva and Divining Rod have
> enough early lick to send if they want to.
>
> I noticed how Stevens deliberately took FL out
> wide on the second turn in the KY Derby to keep
> him away from looking Dortmund in the eye. That
> wound up costing some ground and floating AP wide.
> But it was also a pretty brilliant piece of
> riding strategy IMO because I think Dortmund ran
> better when he was right next to his competition
> in the stretch, and Stevens knew it. Some colts
> are like that. Silver Charm was like that. Touch
> Gold got the better of him by employing similar
> tactics. But if they had gotten the chance to
> race against each other two weeks later I don\'t
> think Stevens on Charm would have let them get
> away with that again. And I don\'t think Garcia
> will make the same mistake again on Dortmund.
> Would think he would want a target to run at.
> Maybe they both let AP go for the lead?
>
> Interesting dynamic regardless. A few other
> thoughts.
>
> Very tough race to make a confident play IMO.
>
> As a rule, I don\'t like colts who have not had a
> recent history of lead change problems who
> suddenly seem to develop them. Stevens has flat
> out said he guarantees FL will change leads in
> Preakness but has not offered up a reason as to
> why he didn\'t in Louisville. FL also leaned out
> badly on AP in deep stretch. And I did not think
> he or the other top two galloped out well at all.
> They all looked gassed to me.
>
> No clue what to make of Dortmund Colic thing. I
> heard about that two days prior to Derby but was
> told it was minor and nothing to worry about. You
> never know though. I think being on the rail the
> whole trip was worse, but who knows. He may not
> want the distance, which is hard to believe given
> that stride of his. And if you assume the colic
> thing hurt him, he\'s not necessarily going to
> rebound here. Racing in the derby may have
> knocked him out entirely. So to me, you either
> say the rail was dead and Dort got the worst of it
> or you can\'t play him to turn the tables here.
>
> Playing AP to bounce would seem to be the play,
> but it\'s kind of tricky because he hasn\'t bounced
> yet and doesn\'t have to here, but he\'s probably
> going off at close to 1/2 odds.
>
> To be honest, I think I will be on the fence on
> how, or even if, to play this one until I see them
> in the paddock. Which means the horizontals are
> probably out unless I really like something in one
> of the undercards and feel I can spread or at
> least be in a position to hedge in the Preakness.
>
> Super Saver looked terrible in the Preakness
> Paddock.
>
> Man, I want to play AP to bounce...
Felt the same way, the top three were all cooked. In Germany I think they call it Sauer Bratten. Still only Frosted could close appreciably, due to a little trouble and the soft fractions.
Don\'t currently like the way this race is setting up for betting, but like you will look at them and decide late if there is anything to be done.
I think the Preakness has all the makings of an even slower pace.Dortmund was sent early in both his last 2 because he was on the fence in the SA Derby and I believe Baffert did not want him trapped behind horses in Kentucky.
Unless he draws the fence again, Dortmund should end up tracking a slow pace Saturday. He will be tough to hold off in the lane with a target in front of him and the colic issue behind him.
Hedge small with AP and FL underneath,and play heavier underneath with Diving Rod and Moon with the thought (hope?) that both AP and FL are gassed.
Can\'t find any other way to play vertically in this one.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Frosted closed real well. Did not gallop out well either.