Looks like dry and in the low 70\'s right now for Saturday in Baltimore.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
68% chance for meaningful precip after 3 PM, Sat afternoon . . .
There are a lot of people who are looking to bet the Preakness & many are on Firing Line. So what are you going to do if it rains? Still send it in on a horse with questionable mud breeding (BRIS win %, sire/dam sire 16/12), pass the race, or pick another horse (Tale of Verve has BRIS w % of 19/19). On top of that your nemesis is a proven wet track runner & your horse\'s wet track abilities are totally unproven. 3/1 or 4/1 still looking good?
As a Pharoah guy from the day he came back into serious training this year, I\'m sticking with my boy. I\'ve decided on one bet using 2 horses with AP in the Black-Eyed Susan Daily Double. As good as the California males have been, I think the fillies are a bad bunch. I\'ll try to beat Luminance with Danessa Deluxe who could be a new horse under Jorge Navarro\'s magic wand and put a saver DD in with Ahh Chocolate, who may have a forward move in her (which she\'ll have to in order to win).
Still WAY TOO EARLY for an accurate weather forecast but early stuff says 60% chance of showers in Baltimore Saturday afternoon.
regardless of the chance of rain, what is the best way for the small player to make money on this race? ex? tri? super? I think that was part of what toppled was suggesting. any thoughts on the exotics?
ROBERT49 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> regardless of the chance of rain, what is the best
> way for the small player to make money on this
> race? ex? tri? super? I think that was part of
> what toppled was suggesting. any thoughts on the
> exotics?
Unless you think AP is going to miss the board, it\'s probably best to find value in the Pick 4.
It doesn\'t look like there will be much money to be made in the verticals.
forget the rain , it ain\'t happening for any concern
Hard to find good value in this joke of a field. Dortmund looks like a horse that could use a rest and maybe a better miler. Sure he will be sacrificed Saturday regardless. Dortmund will work for lead and then again try to back up. Sure hope he is not successful. Don\'t want to see another joke triple crown race were only 3 of 18 jockeys took note of how the track was playing. Same three all the way around. It is a shame our triple crown has come to this. With that being said I will root hard for anyone except AP because I don\'t want to spend three weeks listening to triple crown talk for a horse like this. Still say first race claimers on derby day ran faster. No proof of course on changing track. Hard to measure effect of ground loss when they are walking first half of race. It seems like we will do anything here to get a triple crown winner.
I don\'t know what to say about this race. I really don\'t. Sad that we are discussing jockey tactics as only point of interest.
This race would have triple the interest if an Upstart or Materiality ran. Both could of been major contenders here. I hope nothing is wrong with Upstart. I loved him since the Holy Bull. I was hoping that they would of rested him after FOY and went straight to derby. From watching the race it was clear that he did not like dirt in his face(u would think they would of known this). I still say had he been more forwardly placed we could of had a different result. I also wish he was running in the Belmont. I will root for this horse and hope he kicks ass in the breeders cup or something. Got to see him in Florida and I thought he was gorgeous. Looks on TV like he even got more chiseled since FEbruary.
Anyway lets root for a Preakness upset of any kind. Want a super horse to be the one who gets the triple crown.
As an investor I want AP to win the Preakness.
This would set us up for a possible nice score in the Belmont..
Good luck..
Pizzalove,
Dortmund wasn\'t \"sacrificed\" in the Derby, nor will he be in the Preakness. He went to the front and tried to wire the field, like he did in his previous 2 races. He just wasn\'t good enough.
Saying \"they will do anything to get a triple crown winner\" is silly. Who exactly is \"they\"? The jockeys conspired to arrange a slightly slower than par pace to allow a triple crown winner? Did the CIA also assassinate JFK? Bad jockey decisions were sort of made, but Materiality blew the break, Ocho Ocho Ocho wasn\'t even capable of being the cheap speed some thought he would be, and the three best horses had jockeys all happy with their position early, hence the sub par pace. Makes for a boring race sort of, but no conspiracy.
Upstart was horrendous in the Derby. Just horrendous. Looked great on paper going in, but very hard to say he would have tripled the interest in the race. Maybe to people on this board. Materiality - different story. Ran a representative race after the bad break. Pletcher just won\'t run in the Preakness. Sucks in the Derby and won\'t try the Preakness.
I don\'t like AP and don\'t think he will win Saturday, but if he does win the Triple crown, he will have truly deserved it. Barring injuries, he will be facing a tall order in the Belmont, with two rested horses that are about as fast as he is (Materiality and Frosted), while he will be on his 4th race in 8 weeks. It will be no gift. And while the field Saturday is watered down, Firing Line and Dortmund are fast and talented horses, so he is facing a taller Preakness task than either Smarty Jones or Big Brown did, for sure.
Rob
If Dortmund was a little under the weather for Derby day they should of waited for the Preakness or Belmont. I really don\'t like his chances Saturday because he may need a rest but Baffert knows this horse can control the pace. I also really disagree with the statement that fractions were \"slightly slower\" that day. Just look at the charts.
As for Upstart I don\'t look at his performance as horrendous as much as Ortiz. I saw Ortiz in multiple races at Keeneland gun horses to the front and win just a few weeks prior. thought he was a perfect derby mount. Then in the derby he places his horse in no mans land on the far outside and then dropped way back.
As for Upstart this was one of the best Derby prospects I had ever seen. Not using the wonderful TG stats but just looking at his races and peeking at the Beyers. This was one of those rare horses that you started pointing to the KD from his very first race. I had heard from a friend who used to work for Whittingham that Upstarts maiden race amounted to less than a workout for him hence the aggressive placing 9 days later. Saw that race myself and was extremely impressed. One of the things that really got me was so often you see two year olds who have monster success because they have simply grown much faster than their counterparts. Some of the drugs used on the young horses to mature them quicker is another scandal but we can talk about that later. Upstart looked good at two but it was clear he had some growing to do. He wasn\'t built like Schwarzenegger or anything he was just fast. I was angry when the jock let up in the juvenile to let carpe diem beat me out of a $100 exacta but I still had the tri. I also liked how he weaved between horses.
then in the holy bull I believe he was just awesome. after a long break too yet. You could also see he had matured in size. I really was hoping Violette would send him right to Kentucky from the FOY. I mean the horse had already shown he could be brilliant after a long layoff but instead he had a taxing race in the Florida derby. And really overall I thought the horse had been handled beautifully.
I believe without a doubt there are Grade I wins in Upstarts future. If there is anything such as Breeders cup Classic wagers I would greatly someone telling me what the odds are on this horse and where I could bet it. I would put between $1000 and $5000 on it.
Pizza---give the money to charity. At least then it won\'t go to waste. No shot Upstart gets a 1 1/4 against BC Classic caliber animals.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Upstart is 50-1 for the Classic offshore. Not sure how big a bet they take.
I swear, I love stuff like that.
No shot Upstart gets a 1 1/4 against BC Classic caliber animals.
Jbelfior,
Personally i\'m going to need more to convince me in an argument other
than \"caliber\"/\"classy\".At the ripe age of 19 i used to laugh at the old timers(then probably my age now)when they\'d consider a horse usable in light
of his/her caliber or classiness while on the then sheets the horse was absolutely unusable.
I just read 50-1 offshore. !#@% isn\'t holy,but holy @#!$
pizzalove Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Hard to find good value in this joke of a field.
> Dortmund looks like a horse that could use a rest
> and maybe a better miler. Sure he will be
> sacrificed Saturday regardless. Dortmund will
> work for lead and then again try to back up. Sure
> hope he is not successful. Don\'t want to see
> another joke triple crown race were only 3 of 18
> jockeys took note of how the track was playing.
> Same three all the way around. It is a shame our
> triple crown has come to this. With that being
> said I will root hard for anyone except AP because
> I don\'t want to spend three weeks listening to
> triple crown talk for a horse like this. Still
> say first race claimers on derby day ran faster.
> No proof of course on changing track. Hard to
> measure effect of ground loss when they are
> walking first half of race. It seems like we will
> do anything here to get a triple crown winner.
>
> I don\'t know what to say about this race. I
> really don\'t. Sad that we are discussing jockey
> tactics as only point of interest.
>
> This race would have triple the interest if an
> Upstart or Materiality ran. Both could of been
> major contenders here. I hope nothing is wrong
> with Upstart. I loved him since the Holy Bull. I
> was hoping that they would of rested him after FOY
> and went straight to derby. From watching the
> race it was clear that he did not like dirt in his
> face(u would think they would of known this). I
> still say had he been more forwardly placed we
> could of had a different result. I also wish he
> was running in the Belmont. I will root for this
> horse and hope he kicks ass in the breeders cup or
> something. Got to see him in Florida and I
> thought he was gorgeous. Looks on TV like he even
> got more chiseled since FEbruary.
>
> Anyway lets root for a Preakness upset of any
> kind. Want a super horse to be the one who gets
> the triple crown.
- This isn\'t the first Preakness with a smaller field. Was Spectacular Bid a joke because he only beat 4 other horses?? A couple of them were pretty good, but just a 5 horse field. Sometimes the Preakness is a really good race, sometimes not.
- We get the Derby pace thing. It happens. You think this is the only race where the pace was slower than anticipated?? Some didn\'t break, some weren\'t capable, some didn\'t fire. Circumstances, not conspiracy.
- AP has done nothing wrong, and has shown to be a high quality horse. I have no idea why you are so down on him, or don\'t think he\'s worthy of being a TC winner. If he wins Saturday, winning the Belmont won\'t be easy at all. Fresh horses, fast horses, he will earn it in NY. His Derby was earned, not given to him.
- If you want to root against this colt, why on earth would you want him to lose Saturday?? Good luck trying to construct tickets trying to beat him, and making money. Wouldn\'t it be a better idea to have him win, setting up the usual \"bet against the horse going for the TC\", with the requisite overlays that happen every time??
\"I will root hard for anyone except AP because I don\'t want to spend three weeks listening to triple crown talk for a horse like this.\"
This horse is fast and talented. A horse like that would be deserving. I have no idea why you hate this horse.
P-Dub it is like Deja Vu. Much the same last year knocking CC and before that I\'ll have Another & Bodemeister.
Secretariat beat five! The competition stays home because they know more than the arm chair quarterbacks. Phletch, it has been said, more than once, he is a crack businessman and fourth pays?
Only the names have changed!
Official Preakness Stakes Post Positions
1 AP
2 Dortmund
3 Mr. Z
4 Danzig Moon
5 Tale of Verve
6 Bodhisattva
7 Divining Rod
8 Firing Line
This makes the race even less of a good betting proposition doesn\'t it? Fave gets the shortest way home and FL out wide likely to lose ground.
Hope he wins by 4L and runs another -3 so we can get him at Elmont.
Post 1 is 1-55 in Preakness since 1960.
How many of those were odds on faves? Those kind of post stats are deceiving unless you work the odds each horse went off at into them.
This isn\'t the derby where it\'s a 20 horse crush of horses with the 1 post basically pointed into the fence. It\'s an 8 horse field.
I\'ll take the shortest trip every time, especially with his main rival drawn on the far outside.
No filter on who the 55 were but a reasonable sample.
And that\'s not to say I like him. I just think it makes the race less of a good betting proposition. Lots of other better races this weekend...specifically that pimolico special if the ML\'s hold up...which looks unlikely since both Tap and Albano are scratching. But hopefully people will bet the big names still left in the race and forget about the local.
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Post 1 is 1-55 in Preakness since 1960.
Would be interesting to know what Baffert\'s instructions will be. The race strategy will be his alone -- and not the owner\'s or jockey\'s call. He won\'t want their trips to compromise each other but also won\'t want to overtly set it up for AP -- and then have another horse win.
I hate the rail at any distance. I know it is the shortest way around and many trainers demand to stay there (Frankel) but it is a tough place to be for a young horse. FL drew perfectly in my opinion.
AP has no option but to send,assuming a clean break.
Let\'s see, Garcia breaks from the gate and makes a right turn taking out Mr Z and forcing everyone wide, kind of opposite of what he did with Bayern in the Breeders Cup Classic. This leaves plenty of room for AP along the rail for a ground saving trip while FL gets forced three wide all around. Not to say thats how it will happen, but I doubt Garcia on Dortmund will be anywhere near AP.
Strike Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> miff Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Post 1 is 1-55 in Preakness since 1960.
>
> Would be interesting to know what Baffert\'s
> instructions will be. The race strategy will be
> his alone -- and not the owner\'s or jockey\'s call.
> He won\'t want their trips to compromise each other
> but also won\'t want to overtly set it up for AP --
> and then have another horse win.
>
> I hate the rail at any distance. I know it is the
> shortest way around and many trainers demand to
> stay there (Frankel) but it is a tough place to be
> for a young horse. FL drew perfectly in my
> opinion.
Agree. I love this draw for FL.
Zayat might regret selling Z. I think he\'s got enough speed to get to the front if DWL wants to send him and kick some dirt in the favorites face.
Kaleem Shah doesn\'t give a damn about Zayat, I promise you. If Garcia pulls a ridiculous stunt like that with Dortmund, Baffert just lost a major client.
That would have been my Sire Tabasco Cat In 1994. Trained by D.W. Lukas.
Bally Ache in 1960.
Hill Prince 1950
Capite 1949
Whirlaway 1941
War Admiral 1937
High Quest 1934
Gallant Fox 1930
Watervale 1911 (owned by August Belmont) of Big Sandy Fame.
Flocarline 1903
Day-to-day racing at Pimlico certainly doesn't indicate that post 1 is bad. In races around two turns at the current meeting, horses breaking from the rail have won 24 percent of the time — by far the best rate for any post position.
Andy Beyer
sekrah Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Strike Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > miff Wrote:
> >
> --------------------------------------------------
>
> > -----
> > > Post 1 is 1-55 in Preakness since 1960.
> >
> > Would be interesting to know what Baffert\'s
> > instructions will be. The race strategy will be
> > his alone -- and not the owner\'s or jockey\'s
> call.
> > He won\'t want their trips to compromise each
> other
> > but also won\'t want to overtly set it up for AP
> --
> > and then have another horse win.
> >
> > I hate the rail at any distance. I know it is
> the
> > shortest way around and many trainers demand to
> > stay there (Frankel) but it is a tough place to
> be
> > for a young horse. FL drew perfectly in my
> > opinion.
>
> Agree. I love this draw for FL.
>
> Zayat might regret selling Z. I think he\'s got
> enough speed to get to the front if DWL wants to
> send him and kick some dirt in the favorites face.
There are other potential speedy horses as well. Baffert has to be a bit worried about Z because that guy is crazy at times. He won\'t want to be anywhere near him. He also won\'t want to be near Dortmund. A lot for Espinoza to consider. Maybe too much.
Baffert has made a ton of money for Shah. Shah knows Dortmund isn\'t as fast as AP. I can\'t understand why he wants to run on Saturday. Why not wait for the Haskell instead. Wouldn\'t be surprised to see Baffert scratch Dortmund especially if the track comes up wet.
KK4510 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Baffert has made a ton of money for Shah. Shah
> knows Dortmund isn\'t as fast as AP. I can\'t
> understand why he wants to run on Saturday. Why
> not wait for the Haskell instead. Wouldn\'t be
> surprised to see Baffert scratch Dortmund
> especially if the track comes up wet.
The more likely scenario is that Dortmund is running because Baffert knows there\'s a very real chance AP is totally shot after the Derby.
This is sort of confusing to me. In 1994 saddle cloth # 1 broke from post position #4.
Tabasco Cat saddle cloth #2 broke from post #2 although gate #1 was empty.
So the list I looked at recorded Tabasco Cat as winning from post #1 and technically he did not. My Apologies.
I Agree
foolish to dimiss