Just my unedumacated guess as to how big Mike will have the mourning line:
Cliff: 7/2
Tapit: 4
Smarty: 9/2
Lion: 6
David: 8, and he will be the \"wiseguy\" horse!
Footnotes: 8
Lake: 10
Castle: 10
Imperial: 12
Borrego: 12
Quinton: 15
Pollard: 15
Birdstone: 20, and a sleeper!
Pro Prado: 20
Action: 20, will be bet under, and still lose
Lime: 20
Baffert 20: ok, probably lower!
Eric: 30
Averil: 30
Song:30
Any thoughts??
from what I am reading, it seems that Birdstone is the most polarized - either love him or giving him no chance...my wise guy horse (bet him in the BC) is....Minister Eric. Smarty,Minister/SmartyMinister/all trifecta...and then those two at bottom of super with Haskin\'s commandment horses...
The only thing worse than Battaglia\'s morning line are his race calls!
Finally, something I agree with.
Speaking of great race callers, I am sure Vic Stauffer can already predict the stretch run of the derby. \"You better keep your eye on.....\"
fasteddie -
Your odds are about 50% too low to be realistic. If your odds were in place, the takeout would be roughly 40%. A range from around 5/1 to 50/1 seems more likely.
On the other hand, I think Steven Crist once pointed out that morning lines in general (and Battaglia\'s specifically) are often unrealistically low, partly because the linemaker wants to avoid suggesting to owners of longshots that their horses are overmatched and don\'t belong in the race (however true that may be).
I doubt that MASTER DAVID will be the wise guy horse. I have not heard much about him. Lots of talk about WIMBLEDON, however. Baffert\'s got them all fooled. Reminds me of when people actually thought that TEN CENTS A SHINE had a shot because D.Wayne was chirping.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
whats the line on Wimbledon outfinishing Ten Cents a Shines placing?
:)
RTF closer to 30-1 than 8-1 (guessing around 20-1 is where he settles). can\'t find many supporters around after bailey jumped ship (twice). friend and castle probably a bit higher, and baffert closer to 10-1 than 20-1. david probably around 10-1, i hear a lot of people saying he is a bit too slow.