First to be clear, none of this is anything I have heard from anyone, these are just my thoughts so please everyone take that into consideration when thinking about this. I could be way off as it\'s just a theory.
I think Materiality had a minor muscle injury in his hind end for the Derby
I think the injury occurred when the horse starting training over the CD surface. It is VERY common for horses to have muscle soreness/pulls/strains, etc when switching surfaces. This is why trainers typically give horses a few easy jog days when they first ship to a new track to allow the horse to acclimate. The Palm Beach Downs surface is very different from the CD surface and therefore a horse is using some different muscles when they go onto a new surface. When you are shipping into CD close to the Derby, you don\'t have time to give the horse a few easy jog days. It\'s why I would either ship a few weeks out or right on top of the race but I wouldn\'t ship 10 days out.
Why do I think the horse had a pulled hind end muscle?
There was clearly something going on with the horse on Derby week. He got hot in the paddock and at the gate in the morning (which he didn\'t typically do down in Florida) and he galloped on his wrong lead the first time around the track several times Derby week (another thing he never did before Derby week). Importantly, like any athlete, with muscle tightness or a mild muscle strain, you can warm up out of it. He did that the second time around in his gallops Derby week (as he was back on the proper lead the second time around) and I think he did it during the race itself. The muscle that is bugging him loosens up, adrenaline gets pumping so you don\'t feel it as much, etc.
A muscle issue in his back end would also explain why he broke poorly. Most of the time when a horse breaks poorly, it\'s because they have an issue in their hind end (i.e. the muscle they use to push off out of the gate).
The other thing about a back end muscle issue (maybe gluteal soreness?) is that you can\'t legally treat it so close to the race.
So, where does all of this leave us?
I think this horse could be super live for the Belmont.
I loved him prior to what I saw during Derby week training. It was obvious there was something wrong which is why I got off him but if I have put the pieces together correctly here (huge if), then the muscle issue should be cleared up by the time of the Belmont and he has that huge fig to run back to.
He also has the grinding style that you want out of your Belmont horse and I don\'t think the distance will be any issue at all
Would love thoughts on this if anyone has any.
I think this is dead nuts on regarding Mat as potential strong play in the Belmont. I said the same thing earlier this week on the board. He\'s got the number power to run back to and all things considered he ran very well in the Derby. Plus Pletcher has figured out that if you send them out of the gate and stay close to the pace in the Belmont, most of the stretch runners lose their late kick at the 1 1/2 distance. His runners have done well in this race.
So everybody will be on Mat and Frosted in the Belmont. If AP goes down in the Preakness the Belmont looks like a dead betting race (I doubt Firing Line and Dortmund run all 3).
Even more of a reason to take a shot at AP in Pimlico.
Sounds good to me,as your knowledge in this is better than mine..
As of yesterday according to bloodhorse Pletcher was on the fence about all 3 of his Derby starters regarding the Preakness..
Thanks for the knowledge.
I agree.But tough to beat the derby winner coming back in 2 weeks. They tend to hold their form and as I much as I loved Firing Line off the rest, I absolutely hate him coming back in 2 weeks. Just hope its not another Barbaro.
I have a feeling Dortmund doesn\'t go here and goes to NY instead. That\'s what I would do with him. I know there are many that do not feel he would get that trip, but i\'m not one of them.
With all due respect to Jim C and all of you who adore Materiality. Not sure what exactly he\'s beaten yet to make me think he is talented enough to simply go to the Belmont and win it. Does he have the mindset to relax? Can he get the trip? Florida division, IMO, way overrated.
Good Luck,
Joe B
Joe B
I think you just offended all of the Upstart lovers on the board when you asked what Mat has beaten
If you liked Upstart in the Derby, you have to love the horse than beat him in only his 3rd lifetime start!
all that said, I do care about key races, etc but
1) what had American Pharoah beaten this year before the Derby?
2) I care about the TGs more than I do who has beaten whom
The question is what do you do if Pletcher runs him back in the Preakness.
Sekrah:
Why would the Belmont possibly being a bad (or a good) betting race affect your decision about betting the Preakness?
Materiality is so highly thought of by TAP that I would be very surprised he would risk racing him in the derby if he did not feel he was very close to 100%. Jim, as you know, many horses are raced even when not thought to be \"perfect\"
Agree with Jim that horses that are off behind will often break slowly.
On the AP \"skinny\" watch, a pal watched him get his bath this am and said AP appeared to be himself, i.e. not overly tucked up or light of flesh, for whatever that is worth when he comes under race stress next Sat.
I would be shocked if Todd ran him in the Preakness but I wouldn\'t be anywhere near as bullish on his chances if he runs him in Baltimore as I would if he waited for the Belmont
Rich Curtis Wrote:
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> Sekrah:
>
> Why would the Belmont possibly being a bad (or a
> good) betting race affect your decision about
> betting the Preakness?
Poor point by me. I\'ve never seen a bad opportunity to go against a 3-5 shot. The Preakness is a must-play regardless. If you lose, you get a 2-5 shot in the Belmont that you almost certainly will end up beating.
Jim - I\'m with you on materiality being strong come Belmont time, assuming he looks good leading up to the race. Best case scenario would be AP wins the Preakness convincingly and the two meet up again in NY.
It does sort of seem like there\'s at least more of a possibility than normal for Pletcher that one of CD or MAT runs next week eh? Usually by now he\'d have 100% ruled them out.
Why the hate on firing line, who\'s line still looks OK, and even on the short rest he did have those 5+ weeks. At 7/2 I can see looking elsewhere, but he has some shot, no?
covelj70 Wrote:
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> I would be shocked if Todd ran him in the
> Preakness but I wouldn\'t be anywhere near as
> bullish on his chances if he runs him in Baltimore
> as I would if he waited for the Belmont
I would be plenty bullish on the Materiality\'s chances in the Preakness. In fact, he is the horse I would view as most likely to pull off the upset of AP.
Dave Grening DRF
TAP:Competitive Edge \"more likely\" to skip Preakness
COMPETITIVE EDGE is more likely to run in the G1 Met Mile or G2 Woody Stephens on the Belmont Stakes undercard than the Preakness, trainer Todd Pletcher said Thursday, \"but nothing\'s definite,\" he added.
\"We\'ve taken the patient approach with him so far,\" Pletcher said. \"It\'s a long year, a lot of big races down the road.\"
Pletcher said that Materiality and Carpe Diem galloped well Thursday morning at Belmont and no decision on their Preakness status has been made
phil23 Wrote:
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> It does sort of seem like there\'s at least more of
> a possibility than normal for Pletcher that one of
> CD or MAT runs next week eh? Usually by now he\'d
> have 100% ruled them out.
I am praying Pletcher runs Carpe Diem next week.
We going to see Upstart in the Preakness?
Hi Jim:
I was at the Florida Derby. Upstart was one of the first horses I tossed in the KYD. I don\'t think much of him past a mile and thought he was way over the top.
As for AP, he did beat the BC Juvenile winner by 5 lenghts so 2yo class confirmed. His resume had less to prove than Materiality.
BTW: Materiality would be one tough customer in the Met Mile. Just one man\'s opinion.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
No, sent him to the farm for a couple of weeks.
My hands are tied, I\'m not going to step on toes (there\'s a couple of metaphors for you) and go into detail. But they have found zero soundness issues.
Summer campaign. I\'ll let the horse do the talking.
If I remember correctly,at this time last year the Belmont winner and runner-up had not run in the Derby and had no plans on running in Baltimore.
One race at a time.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Its not the norm for TAP to send horses to the Preakness. I personally don\'t see him running any of his colts in the Preakness next Saturday.
I would have to assume he realizes that Materiality gives him his best chance in the Belmont, so why run him back in 2 weeks, which is something else he rarely does.
Back in the 80s the used to run good 3yos in the Met. Among the winners were Conquistador Cielo (who won the Belmont the same week) and Gulch. There was another whose name I forget. At the time Gulch\'s win was a big score for me.
I\'d love to see Competitive Edge in the Met. The 3yos get a decent break in the weights & if they\'re fast enough, have an edge on older horses.
I\'ve gone over Materiality\'s pedigree carefully. His pedigree is not going jump out at you, but there\'s enough there in consideration of his demonstrated stamina to believe the Belmont Stakes will suit him fine. Including his half sister last year Miss Sophia.
I like him at One and Three Sixteenths also, especially at Pimlico. If it\'s up to me, he doesn\'t miss this next one. He has Preakness \"action\". For you history buffs, his Daddy won there nearly falling down and AP\'s Daddy went bad there as well. Those are favorable patterns.
He didn\'t get out of the gate last. Apparently pulled off his own shoe. Ran behind horses for the first time and didn\'t like it. Got shuffled to nearly last and then got a hole and was moving best with Frosted and Keen Ice. If he gets out of the 3 hole properly, he wins that race. He had the perfect near pace running style, but like his Daddy at Churchill, it wasn\'t his day.
This horse is gonna love Saratoga and the Fall Classics at Belmont. If it were my call, I\'d keep the Big Sandy in waiting.
covelj70 Wrote:
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> Joe B
>
> I think you just offended all of the Upstart
> lovers on the board when you asked what Mat has
> beaten
>
> If you liked Upstart in the Derby, you have to
> love the horse than beat him in only his 3rd
> lifetime start!
Absolutely agree here. It was that Florida Derby that sold me on Materiality, but I was seriously window shopping before it. They both got \"late\" down the stretch, but Materiality gritted it out and at the end was distancing what for me was a Strong Derby horse. Upstart ran up upon Materiality\'s flank because he was so gassed from the effort. Upstart wanted to get to him, but the best he could do was run AT him.
> all that said, I do care about key races, etc but
>
> 1) what had American Pharoah beaten this year
> before the Derby?
> 2) I care about the TGs more than I do who has
> beaten whom
Pharoah is gonna get a decent number off the wide, but he was all out and under a persistent heavy whip.
You look at the relative efforts of Materiality and AP and the latter took more punishment. Coming back in two weeks, that is an intriguing variable.