Last night the Mrs. reveiewed the sheets and now all that\'s left for me is the draw. I hate to be accused of not taking a pre-race position, so I\'ll go early. With a field this big, I\'ve made a few categories.
Contenders/value
Pollard\'s Vision - In my first look through the sheets, this was one of three that jumped out at me. The Mrs. likes him too. Has tactical speed and a jockey with a brain. Figure you have to be able to run under a two to get on the board here, so he fits big time with a pair saving some ground. Yes he has distance questions, but he only has to beat THESE HORSES, and though I am no pedigree expert, few of look like slam dunks at ten furlongs.
Imperialism - Another of the first three that I liked, but the Mrs. doesn\'t see it, so I\'m on the fence a little. Will probably need a new top, and in my observation, not too many horses do this in the Derby. I think Desormeaux is an upgrade. I was a little taken aback by what I read about his first workout at Churchill.
Quinton\'s Gold Rush - This was our biggest divergence. The Mrs. liked this horse and I didn\'t. On second thought, why can\'t he pair up? Will be viewed negatively after Bailey\'s defection, and at 25-1 or better, how can you leave him out? Plus if he wins and my wife cashes and I don\'t I would kill myself, based on the fact that his sheet says he can hit the board. Should be able to save some ground -- the draw will be HUGE for this horse. Others have commented that he didn\'t beat anybody last out, but so what? He\'s fast enough and can save some ground.
Contenders/no value
Cliff\'s Edge - obviously fast enough to win and likes the track. The negatives are that he\'s a bounce candidate and he needs a trip big time (others have commented on Sellers). Even with a slight bounce he can win. Headache, and the draw probably won\'t solve it. There seems to be some possibility that this race will collapse, and that would obviously help his chances. Still, at 4-1 or so I would probably throw him out except for some tri/super tickets so he doesn\'t screw me sucking up third with bombs in the other spots.
Tapit - I\'ve gotten off him a bit, given some of the commentary here. Also, why take a short price on a horse that\'s slower than many others? Again, most horses are not going to make a new top in the Derby. Needs a trip and I can hear the \"he just didn\'t like the track\" excuse already. Still, if he went up to 10-1 or so and drew decently he would fall in the headache category big time.
In A League Of His Own
Lion Heart - seems to be more of a pace question, but how many of these are going to pass him in the last quarter? He can back up a little, save ground and still win. The third one that jumped out at me (with IMPY and ONE-EYE) and the Mrs. likes him too.
Headaches That May Be Resolved Shortly
Minister Eric, Eddington, Master David, Pro Prado and Songofthesword.
Eddington looks the best of these if he gets in. He can pair last, looks like he could get the distance and would probably have decent stalking position. Pro Prado will be a huge price, but I\'m concerned that he may back up off three big races and he\'s another that could run a big number and lose anyway. Still at 30-1 he\'s a HEADACHE and I would have to use him (lightly in exotics!). I\'m leaning more towards throwing the others out.
So the unqualified positives (given the likely odds and consensus between me and the Mrs.) are Pollard\'s Vision, Lion Heart and Quinton\'s Gold Rush (!). Imperialism looks like the most likely one to improve, should get a favorable pace scenario and will be value as well (although I\'m on my own here).
Good luck to all! HP
Left out Borrego -- a headache horse. Extremely negative comments on workout at CD. That\'s it. HP
Nice job HP. I agree with most of your analysis. One question though. What are you going to do with Shorty and Footnotes? Or do you consider them tosses
HP - what negative comments are you referring to on Borrego - everything I read was quite enthusiastic about his work on Sunday...
Shanahan -
Borrego (five furlongs in 1:03.74) - The first out over the track after the renovation break and like FRIENDS LAKE was never asked for any speed by exercise rider Andy Durnin, going in splits of :25.65, :37.87 and :51 before completing his final furlong in :12.74. Has made a very good appearance here all week but must be concerned by the fact he shut down completely after passing the wire, barely galloping out to the seven-eighths pole in a slow 1:19.90.
\"Shut down completely\" and \"barely galloping out\" sounds extremely negative to me. I don\'t know how much stock to put in any of this stuff. If the price is right (I want at least 15-1) I\'ll probably use him.
Ronwar -
I have no problem tossing Read the Footnotes. The last race was BAD. When was the last time you saw a horse run well in the Derby off a BAD last race? I can\'t recall any off the top of my head.
As for Smarty Jones, the positive is that he\'s fast enough to win.
The negative is the stretchout off of the HUGE races. I can\'t see him moving forward or even pairing his last. He won\'t have his own way on the front end. Do you see him stalking and PASSING Lion Heart? I don\'t. He hasn\'t faced anything like what he will see Saturday. His main contribution may be knocking heads close to the lead and setting things up for the stalkers.
I can\'t take a fairly short price on a horse where my main question is \"how much will he back up here?\" Not a great question to ask about a 6-1 shot with these. Borrego seemed to be getting closer at the end of his last race and it looked like Smarty had things pretty much his own way there. As a betting proposition, I\'m going to have to take the longshots here.
Could be an \"x\" factor though -- Smarty seems to like it wet...
HP
HP - I\'m losing it...I totally misread and was thinking of Wimbledon...apologies...and it\'s only Monday! Good Luck, I\'m going with Smarty and boxing with Steve Haskins\' Derby commandment horses...
Wimbledon worked well, but for me falls into the same category as Read the Footnotes off an AWFUL last race. On a metaphysical level, the bad vibes from Bailey and Baffert put me off as well, and the horse will probably be overbet.
I can only hope this isn\'t one of Jerry\'s \"it\'s Baffert in Kentucky\" horses, but I will probably have to let him beat me given the other, more positive looking longshots.
I worry about Master David on this level as well, but he\'s another one I\'ll probably let go. Frankel\'s done well in the Derby with horses that figured to do well going in (Aptitude and last year\'s runners looked like major contenders). I\'m not sure he can rally this one up to a new top, and that was an awfully close call in the Wood to get him in...
I\'ll bite, who are the Haskins\' Derby commandment horses? HP
Tstorms appear to be a distinct possibility for Fri & Sat, which may have a big say in how the races are run. There certainly appeared to be a pretty big change from Sat to Sun. I asked my clocker pals about Smarty after reading Linda\'s post & the article praising his work in the drf, & was told that the reason was the last work was on an off track. They don\'t think he looks nearly as good when the trk is fast. If it does rain, pity the poor souls who decide to brave the construction & traffic Sat. There are so many bldgs in the infield at this point that the only way to see an entire race is by helicopter.
On an entirel different topic, D.Wayne had a horse in yesterday which was transferred along with Azeri. After running a big new top & winning convincingly, the horse didn\'t do so good yesterday. Food for thought considering that Azeri will probably be 1-5 Sat.
Mall, I think you better 86 you\'re clocker friends before they dig a hole for you...lol
Which is not to imply Smarty is gonna run well. But to my knowledge he\'s stabled at Keeneland unless I\'ve missed something
http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2004/clocker/clocker0424.html
Post Edited (04-26-04 13:29)
Chuckles,
Is there any doubt that Smarty Jones can rip off five furlongs with the best of them? I have to wonder what the trainer is thinking working the horse like this. It\'s too bad the Derby isn\'t a sprint. HP
I don\'t know HP...he\'s a fast horse and fast horses work fast. They say the jockey was motionless.
The track had some moisture in it, but it certainly wasn\'t \"off\". They\'d harrowed it at the renovation. Birdstone ran well on it too, almost as fast as Smarty. So either the strip was kind or Zito screwed up too.
About Borrego\'s work on Sunday...I watched the work (on tvg) and the exercise rider sat chilly until the wire then relaxed and started bouncing a bit on Borrego\'s back and took a looser grip on the reigns. Surely that\'s a signal to ease up to the horse. Also saw Wimbledon\'s work. Visually more impressive than Borrego but the rider rode him past the wire with a just a little urging in the gallop out to 6f.
The talking heads added a bit of history...Borrego\'s exercise rider did the same for FuPeg.
I respect your observations but it doesn\'t really change my opinion. Wimbledon\'s out and Borrego\'s a possibility. As for Smarty Jones running a fast five furlongs I think that\'s about as meaningless as information this week will get. HP
HP, thanks for the comment but don\'t misread my words. I, too, like Borrego\'s chances more than Wimbledon. I have him in the futures. Borrego is not a fast workout horse. His only \"bullet\" this year was when he was the only horse to work at the distance (26Jan, Hol. 7f 1:26 and 3). His dam is out of Strike the Gold who obviously like CD.
I hear you HB! HP
CtC,
i read somewhere that wimbledon and smarty worked with nearly no effort, while birdstone had to be urged along. not sure how true it is, in fact i don\'t even remember where i read it. i think my next analysis will be on birdstone, should be an easy one.
and was too chicken to bet the Santa Anita Derby or the Bluegrass...lol
The Cliff's Edge – Last race makes him a large factor. It's a big field, but traditionally his pace style is one that suits the Derby. He's nimble, he closes, he likes the track. (Note the last work) There was no way for the "average" handicapper to select him as early as TGJB did. When he went the Sammy Davis route thought he was the third stringer. If the Keeneland strip was legit this marginally bred horse for distance appears to have the best close. (Still evaluating that) It seems the distance issue is behind him.
Action this Day – The most positive thing to say about him is that he worked well last. It sounded like he finished up on even terms with his workmate (Halfbridled) Though she carried 30 more pounds of jockey.
Friend's Lake – The time of the Florida Derby wasn't great. The horses that came out of it have done well but have improved to do so. This horse obviously has talent but he's also got some issues. He's a horse that's hard to bad mouth but hard to like. His work plans didn't go well in the goo and he liked the "off" track he had previously run on.
Smarty Jones - Changed leads again late in the Ark and Borrego ate into his lead. Working well.
Tapit – Thought he was done in the wood on erratic behavior. Not 100% fit last and got talked into giving him a pass and then realized the erratic behavior was what actually occurred. Now the logical course is to rule him out on the bearing in, but the chaos of this year may have him putting that goofy stretch run behind him. Still, he closed and had the best energy late despite all the bearing in and the restraint of the jockey and the trainer is renowned for acumen with injured horses. How do you factor that?
Castledale – Bred to run a long time and lost whip last. Streaky hot trainer.
Limehouse –Still left with the impression he's no better than Swingforthefences and that one probably wouldn't be running here even if he qualified on graded earnings. Santos will probably wrangle him back, but in this field his best chance might be to scoot, don't count on it. If TCE and Lion are as good as that last race he may have long odds exotics potential. If Santos rides you know he should be riding with confidence knowing he's gotten it done before. Still, can't help but think he's not really a 10 mark horse.
Lion Heart – Extremely dangerous in anticipation of the likely pace scenario. Any improvement in his form in consideration of that scenario and the race could set up for him. The key is early pressure. TCE ran him down last, but it wasn't easy. (The Curse Clown did put the whammy on this horse.)
Read the Footnotes – To my reckoning this horse may have run the fastest figure in the race. Still he's being asked to run a huge race without much foundation. That said he's won some very good races. The issue combines a poorish last race, a layoff and the question of 10 marks in 3yr old company. He could do it...it's a question of probability.
Wimbledon – Bob Baffert, The Louisiana Derby was a big race and this horse dominated it. He didn't look nearly as good in the Santa Anita Derby and may have bounced or not been primed for that one or he may have run into better horses, but he is working very well at Churchill and Bad Bob is pleased. He may prefer "Eastern" type tracks. Guess we'll see. Baffert has been pleased before with works at Churchill and gotten his hat handed to him, but this horse could obviously screw up a lot of tickets. Major Migraine.
Pollard's Vision – Last was huge. Not only in number but in appearance. He did come home in an extrapolated 26 seconds, but the track was not glib. Has tactical speed and may give Lion Heart something to think about. Picking up lots of weight from the Illinois Derby, but there was another Illinois Derby winner to do that not long ago.
Imperialism – Beat Hosco Sprinting, Beat Lion Heart at two turns. Was right there at the end of the Santa Anita Derby. How one factors his trouble in that race may determine how one evaluates his odds here. He's got a dosage of 3.0, (Heck they all do now), but he's given the appearance of being at the extreme of his distance ability. Either that or regardless of figures he's run into tough horses. Saturday the tough ones he's faced will be Lionheart, Castledale and Quinton's Gold Rush.
Mininster Eric – Believe he is the more positive of Mandella's entries. No other comment right now.
Birdstone – Much better than last. Same light agenda issues as Read the Footnotes and Friend's Lake.
Borrego – Didn't work well on off track. Not holding that against him, he's not a workhorse anyway. Check T-Graph, I make him to be on a forging curve. Has to overcome the "Curse of the Clown".
Quinton's Gold Rush –beat some decent horses last in a huge field if you noticed. Biggest knock to my mind is the Lexington post wire scenario. Song of the Sword is surging and catches Quinton within about a sixteenth past the wire but Songs stride looks very choppy. Still evaluating.
Value Plus – Wish he'd run
St. Averil – Had an excuse last but got beat by a horse passing this race and gives the impression he's just a notch below the top flight. If he's ready and rates like he has his pace style is one that traditionally does well at 10 marks at Churchill.
Master David – The magician trains. Beat Borrego in the Sham getting 2 lengths. Borrego is a more seasoned horse now and has certainly improved off that Sham. Interesting heads up bet Borrego/Master David. Alexis Solis has jinxed this horse.
Song of the Sword – didn't really start running until Quinton was past the wire. Gave the impression the rail was dull Lexington day, but have no evidence yet to say that yet. Didn't like the end of the gallop out or I'd be all over this horse. Pollard Smoked him.
Pro Prado – Not sure what to make of this horse yet. Seeing if he gets in first. Note he finished a lot closer to Smarty Jones than he did to The Cliff's Edge. I know, I know two year old year.
Eddington – He's gonna be a good one, even if he gets in I don't really think he'll be good May 1st. Come Travers day, everyone may be on him.
If you've read carefully I'm not high on about 7 horses. That's all I can factor out right now...and I may change my mind...lol Lets see final posts and jockey selections.
Workouts before the Derby mean nothing unless they are bad works.
Funny thing about BORREGO is that his pull-ups are all short after his races. I was never a big fan of any El Prado going long.
Terrific analysis by HP and the MRS. As for RTF, the last time I wagered on a horse that had not run since the FLA. Derby was BET TWICE, who obviously needed the race when he started swerving in the stretch. I thought BT \'s Preakness was his best (as was ALYSHEBA\'S) No thank you on RTF or FRIENDS LAKE for that matter.
Ever since SKIP AWAY\'s Blue Grass romp, I have tempered my enthusiasm for impressive winners/runners-up out of Keenland. I\'ve seen too many Skip Away\'s, Millenium Wind\'s, Holy Bull\'s, High Yield/More Than Ready\'s, etc. Keenland form does not translate well to Churchill Downs which is not to say LH or TCE can\'t win, it\'s just to say I\'m not going to look at that race as a key prep. I would rather look at someone out of the Blue Grass that ran well and perhaps can handle CD much better (pls. see THUNDER GULCH, UNBRIDLED,& SEA HERO). Can anyone read my mind?
Good Luck,
Joe B.
\"he\'s got a dosage of 3.0 (heck, they all do now)\" ........ arguably the two best horses ever to step foot on a race track, secretariat and northern dancer, both had dosages of exactly 3.0. i think they also ran the two fastest KD\'s of all time.
joe,
just read that santos thought he was too close to the pace in the blue grass, and went to pletcher right after the race asking for the derby mount, thinking he could do better. i forget how unbridled ran in the blue grass, but TG and SH both flattened out in the stretch in that race, just like limehouse did.
Add Monarchos at 1:59 4/5\'s
You might be right, but for a different reason. Based on some of his steam over the weekend, I\'m half-wondering if I can get my name on a do not call registry. More to the point, he\'s at Kee & his batting avg when he says a horse is unlikely because of a problematic work is much higher than when he thinks a horse should be bet because of a very good work.
Haskin obviously believes in foundation and I can\'t argue with that. you said the horse must have a race in \"March\"? I would guess you meant \"April\" Based upon application of the Haskin Commandments to an April race the following are out:
Friends Lake - only 2 races, no race in April
Tapit - Only 2 races
Castledale - Only two races
Lion Heart - Only Two races
Read the Footnotes - No race in April, only 2 races
Wimbledon - Dosage exceeds 4 (Only horse I\'m aware of in field with high dosage, not gonna look it up cause i don\'t believe in it)
Birdstone - no race in April, only 2 races
My hunch is the \"Haskin Comamndments\" only pertain to the WINNER and that his lordship wouldn\'t toss these seven non qualifers from the exotics spots.
I also have a sneaky suspicion Haskin has liked Cliff\'s Edge for some time and has crafted his \"Haskin Commandments\" for this year...lol
I wonder if Haskin would apply the same structure to betting on the Epsom Derby. If he did he\'d of missed Lammtara. I know, I know its a turf race...turf builds them up, dirt breaks them down.
Post Edited (04-27-04 03:35)
must have raced as 2 yr old
must have raced 3 times as 3 yr old
must have raced in March
must have dosage below 4.0
Thanks. S
These theories or angles usually are come up with by looking backwards and defining a set of parameters. Then there is a little more history and often they begin to fall apart.
Two examples:
1)Dosage--worked for about 8 yrs then came Strike the Gold, Real Quiet and Charistmatic.
2)Dual Qualifiers--fewer and fewer each year are left by the time Derby rolls around. There was a year when there were only two left, Groovy and Ferdinand and when Ferdinand won everyone REALLY became convinced it was magic.
The only raced twice example Mr. Haskins is using is not how A LOT of people are training these days. This angle will be busted, maybe not this year but clearly in years to come.
Just get those earnings in the bank first.
Michael D:
LIMEHOUSE will be 30-1; I\'m not sure he wants to go this far. Pedigree and dosage #\'s definitely say no.
That being said, he has 2 terrific sprints over the track and we all know what happens to horses that try to run with LH early.
He\'s a use in the exotics. Plus I like the snaeky ones that no one is talking about. Remember INVISIBLE INK??
I caught Lil E. Tee back when....no one gave him a chance even though he had run 2 terrific races versus one of the favorites (Pine Bluff).
I think Pletcher is holding a nice hand.
Good Luck,
joe B.
I\'d like to get CTC\'s take on this pedigree. I think there\'s more here than meets the eye, tilted toward speed definitely, but I don\'t think it necessarily says no for 10 marks. One thing I know for sure is last week I was wondering what Pletcher was thinking running Limehouse in this spot and now after a closer look I think he may be value here.
First off Twoshoes, I don\'t purport to be a pedigree expert. So take anything I say with a large dose of caution. That said, I do believe in utilizing pedigree to sort them out when they\'ve demonstrated their two turn capability.
The inescapable thing about Limehouse is his sire Grand Slam. It appears pretty clear this sire is gonna be something special. He seems to be bringing early developement, speed and some ability to beyond a mere quick 6 marks. Master David is one too. Here is Limehouse\'s pedigree:
http://www.pedigreequery.com/index.php?query_type=horse&search_bar=horse&h=LIMEHOUSE2&g=5&inbred=Standard&x2=n&pedloggedin=0
Its funny, we were just discussing Pollard\'s Vision and heres another horse with a Dixieland Band broodmare Sire. The difference is this horse is not nearly as stamina oriented down the mare side. Pollard had Pleasant Colony and Nijinsky and some heavy duty others is my recollection, not to mention Chris Evert. His dosage reflects it but as Zito says \"Dosage is Voodoo\". However his sire may pick up some for the softer female side. I\'d judge Limehouse on figures. Do you see a progressive pattern? I think its relatively clear the pace in the Bluegrass was somewhat hot. I thought Limehouse would walk away in that race but he ran a 46:60 on a slowish track and got beat. If Limehouse can conserve some energy early he\'s knocked heads with some good ones. That said if I was Pletcher and got a good post vis a vie Lionheart I might send this horse. He\'s got two horses someone has to take it to Lion early with Sinister on the bench.
I will say that depending upon post position I think he\'s got far more exotics potential than win potential.
Post Edited (04-27-04 15:27)
joe,
i have never really liked limehouse, but with a little luck, he could be there. the horse has a ton of speed, so santos should be able to get a decent trip (probably right behind LH and the four speed/stalker types). i was just going through the #\'s, and i just can\'t eliminate him from the exotics.
Ctc,
Thanks for the input. I\'m not quite sure what to make of his pattern but he has kept the right kind of company and he\'s probably fast enough on the right day. I\'ve spent much of my time looking for some value that can comfortably lay close to the front that also have a quick enough turn of foot to get involved as the leaders hit. The way I see this I don\'t want anyone coming from too far out of it.
Limehouse was one of the first horses I tossed.
Limehouse is running in the 3-4 range. There are at least a DOZEN horses in this race that have run faster, and quite a few of them will be \"close to the pace and have a quick turn of foot.\"
If you think Limehouse is going to make a new top in the Derby stretching out off his Blue Grass fade, I guess that\'s a matter of opinion.
There are horses in here that are FAST that are going to be 25-1! I wish I could book bets on Limehouse (along with St. Averil and a few others). I figure the main thing he can accomplish is getting in the way of some of the shorter priced closers who are trying to get by him.
If there was any justice, Limehouse would drop out so Eddington, a horse with a much more realistic shot, could get in. There\'s still time. HP
\"There are at least a DOZEN horses in this race that have run faster, and quite a few of them will be \"close to the pace and have a quick turn of foot.\"
Name them. I\'m open to suggestions. I\'m trying to figure out if the 3-4 range is what to expect or if he\'ll get back to the top in February and frankly there are only 5 or 6 faster than that.
Just to be clear, Limehouse has run two routes this year (his last two races), and both were in the 3-4 range. I vaguely remember the race you are referring to in February, which I think was under a mile (I don\'t have the sheets in front of me). Even if you are correct, there are ONLY 5 or 6 faster than that February sprint?
These have all done better than 3 running over a mile (something Limehouse has not done).
Quinton\'s Gold Rush
The Cliff\'s Edge
Tapit
Lion Heart
Pollard\'s Vision
Minister Eric
Imperialism
Pro Prado
Songofthesword
Master David (ran a 2 as a 2yo)
Borrego
Friend\'s Lake
Read the Footnotes
St. Averil
If you are looking for him to get back to the February race going a mile and a quarter, aren\'t you concerned that he hasn\'t been able to do that going two turns, when ALL of these horses have already done it?
You can have him. Good luck. HP
Borrego- shows a pair of tops, only developed 3pts from 2yr top, sire shows 5pts of development, in addition the pair-up often leads to a new top. LIVE HORSE.
Pollards vision- nice line, still some room to develop, superior mudder, hoping for one more effort.
Pro Prado- like the line, and the spacing and the odds.
Three longshots, will be well placed, all are fast enough, especially with a 1-2 pt move fowards
that\'s why i have not liked the horse. looks to have trouble in the stretch. but joe made a good point in that both TG and SH both faded in the stretch in the blue grass and came back to win the derby at big odds. i believe sea hero never ran a decent race longer than 1m before the derby. a major fade job is possible for limehouse i guess, but so is a minor fade job, where he comes in third or fourth. tough call for me.
It was 7/8. I appreciate where you\'re coming from and sure I\'m concerned about that. I guess I don\'t know if the 3-4\'s are the best he\'s capable of at a route or if the February race knocked him out a little. As I noted earlier, I\'m just having a second look at him and some others. He came to mind because I think he\'ll sit the type of trip I\'m loking for in here.
Thanks for your thoughts.
Regarding Pro Prado, I\'ve never seen a three year old run FOUR big ones in a row (although I\'ve gotten burned plenty by 3yos that have run that THIRD big one). Big price, big headache.
Thunder Gulch just had a super pattern coming into the Derby. A pair of threes, a two point regression... At 25-1 it was almost too good to be true, especially considering that I think the only horse that had done better than those threes going in was Talkin\' Man, who figured to back up big time off an isolated top. In retrospect it was probably the best bet I\'ve ever seen.
As for Sea Hero, Michael is right, but if you look at the \"Past Derby Winners\" file that TG usually includes with the later versions of the Derby sheets, I think he was just a fluke who liked the slop when the other didn\'t.
The interesting thing about Sea Hero is that he is also a horse that won the Derby with a new top. That used to happen a lot more, and has DEFINITELY been happening less over the past few (five) years... HP
HP,
Do the 4 straight efforts that War Emblem ran from his Alw1 win through the Preakness not count ?
Actually they count. In his case I got burned by leaving him out of the Derby, which was his THIRD big one in a row.
What am I, an encyclopedia? You got me. HP
I do believe Sea Hero is the only horse to win the Derby without previously breaking through his 2 yr. old top.
In addition, Swale won the Derby off the biggest pre-Derby prep regression of any horse in \'recent\' Derby history.
This year\'s combined version of the two is Birdstone.
Finally, Birstone looks like an adulterated version of a 4yr. old recovery line that Friedman used to tout and has made me money.
Picking Birdstone goes against everything I\'ve learned over the past 20 + years.
On that note, if an Elusive Quality wins off what I\'m hearing is a classic 0-2 pattern, going 10 panels against the best, then the end result is the same. All the data from the past is irrelevant.
If I have to watch Zito point to heavens and exclaim, \"I love everyone\", it might as well be with the horse everyone, including me, claims should not be here.
Zito Zito 1-2 and 1-3 in tri\'s and 1-4 in supers.
and I left him out of the Preakness because it would be 4.
I cashed Sea Hero (and the ex & tri) because I saw him get shut off at the rail full of run in the Bluegrass- the same move that won the KD. Bless my sorry eyesight!
You and me both! I was working at The Downs at Albuquerque that day when they did not have comingled pools. Sea Hero paid $36.40 and I had my last $200 on him. I authored the tip sheet there and had him picked on top. Cha Ching!!!!
I had him also on the troubled Bluegrass trip and knowing Mack Miller probably had his best race planned next.
Still, he appeared on handicap accomplishments to be one of the more mediocre Derby winners I can recall. He did go on and win the Travers. He won the Champagne as a 2yr old. Miller just had a knack for getting him to peak on the big days.
He missed the fall handicap racing in New York both his 3 and 4 year old year. I suspect he was a little ouchy because Miller attempted to make a Turf horse out of him as a four year old.
http://www.drf.com/tc/trail/2004/derbywinners.pdf
Sea Hero was actually bred nicely for the turf, better than for the dirt. I\'ll sure Miller was frustrated by his inconsistent performances, though.