Can somebody help me with answers to these questions?
On Derby day the track is very \"glib\" for the early races and then when we get to the Derby it\'s considered \"slow\" and \"tiring\". The weather didn\'t change, nobody was talking about noticeable wind,they have water trucks, harrowing etc. they use between races, so why can\'t they keep it constant?
Also everyone keeps talking about \"moderate\" early fractions; really? They ran the second and third quarters in 24, if they kept going in 24\'s you\'d get a 159/1: that\'s not a \"moderate\" final. If they were so \'moderate\", why couldn\'t these great horses run the next two quarters faster than 25/1 and 26/3? Also the first \"moderate\" fraction of the race ( 23/1) was run over the same part of the track in the same direction as the \"tiring\" fraction of 26/3? Was the track really \"tiring\" ( we all know dirt horses unlike turfers usually run the 1st 1/4 faster than the last , but 3+ seconds faster? If the fractions were so \"moderate\" Why did they come home so slow? OR, were the HORSES tired? That is, NOT SO GOOD? Let\'s say AP ran the 3/4 in 1:11/3, (so-called \"moderate\") , so he comes home last half in 51/2. Let\'s not consider Rags, which is ridiculous, but is that performance for THAT DISTANCE worthy of such a good fig from TG ( or, Beyer, or anyone at least 1/2 legit)? Are we talking about SPEED or EFFORT?
There\'s not enough water in those tankers to keep that track constant on a dry day.
They weren\'t moderate fractions. Anyone who says that is wrong. In reality, based on the track speed, they were slightly quick fractions.
Yes, it was a slow, tiring track. You can even see it in the next race afterwards when a bunch of solid OCL 75K horses near a 24/24/24.5 pace completely quit after 6 furlongs when they needed only 1 1/16.
sekrah Wrote:
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> There\'s not enough water in those tankers to keep
> that track constant on a dry day.
>
> They weren\'t moderate fractions. Anyone who says
> that is wrong. In reality, based on the track
> speed, they were slightly quick fractions.
>
> Yes, it was a slow, tiring track. You can even see
> it in the next race afterwards when a bunch of
> solid OCL 75K horses near a 24/24/24.5 pace
> completely quit after 6 furlongs when they needed
> only 1 1/16.
So -- AP exited a very glib race track the race before the Derby (and ran big) and now will have exited a \"slow, tiring track\" heading into the Preakness with two weeks rest. Mean anything to you?
Well not just that, but the spacing of the races going into the Preakness was always going to be ugly for him, and now he\'s coming in with a new top?
His race pattern coming in is very similar to Super Saver\'s, albeit faster.
If somehow AP were to run big again in the Preakness (I\'ll be betting against it), I would fear for his safety in the Belmont.
sekrah,
Watch how easy this is. I agree with the first two lines of your post. I posted earlier today about the spacing for AP.
A lot of people will play against him at Pimlico. After he completely emptied last Saturday, it will be interesting to see if he, as Covel (I think?) says, puts the weight back on. And as someone suggests AP show a nice work.
He answered the bell with a grueling, winning performance just 21 days from the easily won ARK Derby. Seeing if he can run an excellent race again on 14 days is really gonna be interesting. Maybe he can, maybe he can\'t.
I can\'t imagine there\'s a person in this forum that\'s hoping AP has a safety issue. With the whole racing world watching, that\'s the last thing we need.
I suppose I would just as soon wager against him now, when so many people are enamored by him, the problem is who is gonna be in the race that can beat him if he\'s really good but not great that day? Firing Line? He emptied completely, and he\'s never came out of a grueling race on 14 days either. I think we seen a field full of mostly shot ponies last week, hard telling who came out of that in one piece. The PERFECT scenario is Upstart had a reason to throw that clunker. It would be sweet for those that played him in the Derby to come back and really crack him this time and have him bring his \"A\" game. That represents a potentially great betting opportunity.
I look forward to your comments in the room. I do think you bring a lot to the room.
Peace out sekrah. Let\'s keep our dialogue aggressive but civil.