Sheets tell us there is an analogy to be made between BB and AP. Not a perfect analog but relevant.
Both came into Derby off fast new top (obviously BB faster).
Both came into derby looking like they could bounce but instead freaked.
I know many on the board salivating to send it in against AP in the Preakness but I personally believe as long as he regains his weight, he will win the Preakness even going backwards and then the chance to beat him is in the Belmomt.
covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Sheets tell us there is an analogy to be made
> between BB and AP. Not a perfect analog but
> relevant.
>
> Both came into Derby off fast new top (obviously
> BB faster).
>
> Both came into derby looking like they could
> bounce but instead freaked.
>
> I know many on the board salivating to send it in
> against AP in the Preakness but I personally
> believe as long as he regains his weight, he will
> win the Preakness even going backwards and then
> the chance to beat him is in the Belmomt.
I can remember the Oakland Raiders being on a tremendous Monday Night Football winning streak and everyone saying they had won/covered something like 18 straight and that\'s when I stepped up and said, \"Who Cares\".
What has been done before only matters in relevant context.
Didn\'t Big Brown win off like a locomotive in his Derby? And you\'re saying aching hoof Adrian Peterson coming off a Life and Death Derby effort where so much in the race collapsed is really too good to bother taking on in the Preakness? That waiting for the Belmont is the only way to beat him?
Here\'s my perspective. I do not for a single solitary moment believe this horse is anywhere near as good as gushing Bob Baffert and his maniacal revolving exorcist induced little brat seem to think he is. More and more its looking like Peterson is a decent horse in a mediocre crop.
But let\'s put this another way, when Peterson gets beat he\'s likely going down as odds on and with luck out of the money. Do you really want to miss that boat, especially if it sails in the Preakness? Yet in still other words, there is only going to be one chance to let the good times roll against this one. After he\'s beat, the party is over.
Jim,
Agreed, some similarities. Brown had 24 days after the FL Derby and then 35 days into the Derby. He won easily in Preakness in -1.
AP had 28 days to the ARK Derby and then only 21 days into the Derby.
I see Brown\'s trip in the Derby was 5w4w, but in the smaller field at Pimlico he had a 1w3w trip.
AP came out of the Derby with a 4w4w trip.
Probably have to assume he\'ll have a less wide trip in Baltimore.
Is Brown\'s Preakness trip worth TG points versus his Derby trip? Did he run that lower number at Baltimore partially cause he won easily, or that he won easily with a much better trip?
Same trip improvement likely for AP.
\"Maniacal revolving exorcist induced little brat\". Yikes.
He must have had Bodemeister in the Derby and carries a grudge!
He may win going backwards. His competition will surely be weaker than in the Derby. He will be odds on to win. But, this will be his third race in five weeks. His health is also very questionable (a couple of known problems) -- especially running back in two weeks off a very hard race -- ran the whole way and gutted it out.
Baffert is a master poker player so it won\'t be possible to dissect his pre-race comments. A key, in my opinion, to a bet against or pass is workout reports. How does he gallop? Baffert try to hide by exercising him in the dark (Baffert does not like to get up early)? Harrington gave him an \"A\" in his final workout before the Derby and anointed him the best worker since Sunday Silence. What now?
A lot to ask of him -- hopefully there are a few new shooters with good patterns.
Most recent Derby winners I\'ve thought would easily win in Baltimore and the play is against them at Belmont.
This time I believe the Preakness is the time to play against the Derby winner.
When he walked back by the first turn headed for the barn, I thought the horse looked like he had been through a war compared to many that had walked by just minutes earlier.
Two weeks isn\'t much time. The problem with \"playing against\" is you need to have an opinion on a horse that will beat him and I am not there yet. I\'m not sure FL can duplicate his effort either.
Heard Pletcher on Byk basically say he was weighing options for CD and Materiality but never heard the word Preakness. Divining Rod will be there. You know Mr. Z will be in there. Dortmund I presume will be in there. Who else?
Fairmount1 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Most recent Derby winners I\'ve thought would
> easily win in Baltimore and the play is against
> them at Belmont.
>
> This time I believe the Preakness is the time to
> play against the Derby winner.
>
> When he walked back by the first turn headed for
> the barn, I thought the horse looked like he had
> been through a war compared to many that had
> walked by just minutes earlier.
>
> Two weeks isn\'t much time. The problem with
> \"playing against\" is you need to have an opinion
> on a horse that will beat him and I am not there
> yet. I\'m not sure FL can duplicate his effort
> either.
>
> Heard Pletcher on Byk basically say he was
> weighing options for CD and Materiality but never
> heard the word Preakness. Divining Rod will be
> there. You know Mr. Z will be in there. Dortmund
> I presume will be in there. Who else?
Maybe -- Bodhisattva, Danzig Moon, Stanford, Competitive Edge.
Pletcher mentioned Peter Pan likely for Stanford next.
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> \"Maniacal revolving exorcist induced little brat\".
> Yikes.
Rough . . . but points, for sheer creativity.
Based on his 2yo foundation & the TGI for Pioneerof the Nile from 2 to 3, I always thought AP was going to run a big negative # in the Derby, so I don\'t consider his effort a knockout number.
So, what if a -3 or something close to that is normal for this horse when he is sound? You look at some horses and they run off strings of negative numbers when a lot of people are anticipating a bounce (even though he\'s a sprinter & it may no be a good comparison, look at Palace\'s sheet). Not many people around here are thinking Upstart is done with all his negative numbers and are looking at a rebound somewhere in the future. Even though he X\'d in the Derby, Upstart is a good example of a horse who can keep throwing negative numbers at us as a 3YO.
I think if the AP knockers took a step back & realized how good he is, they\'d back off trying to beat him in the Preakness. Baffert\'s Derby winners have yet to lose a Preakness. I agree the time to beat him is in the Belmont, although emotionally it will be tough betting against him because this is a special horse to me, one of the few horses I\'ve been right about every step of the way & it would be next to impossible for me to root against him in the Belmont if he gets that far.
Baffert on AP \"I\'ve got to get the weight back on him\"....jugs, supplements, hot mashes.... Bring in Bobby Flay!
I\'ll text him my diet. That\'ll put some weight on him.
T Sev,
I have to say, I love your style
Would be cool if you didn\'t ALWAYS automatically disagree with everything I post but hey, that\'s what makes a market!
I think I know who you were referring to in that little diatribe and if it\'s who I think it is, then that\'s honestly one of the most amusing things in the history of this board
Relative to the horse,
I use the numbers to tell me how brilliant a horse is and the fact that this horse just ran the second faster Derby in history tells me you are selling him short in terms of how good he is.
Four horses in this Derby ran figures/races that would have won last year\'s Derby and sure Big Brown won off like a locomotive in his Derby but he didn\'t have 2 other negative figure horses chasing him in that race like AP did in this race.
He could certainly lose the Preakness but I think it\'s much more likely that he will lose the Belmont.
He could bounce three points and likely still win the Preakness, just like BB did.
That would be a pretty awful pattern for the Belmont and that\'s where I would take my stand
However, what if this horse pairs his 3 neg in the Preakness and then goes into the Belmont with paired tops and never having gone backward.
I will still play against him in the Belmont but not to anywhere near the same extent as I would if he wins the Preakness while going backwards
Small,
People are going to get nuts with the weight thing. Truth be told, lasix causes most of weight loss and a steady intake of fluids over days adds quite a bit back on.AP was finally on his belly in the derby and that may or may not be his problem. AP not expected to breeze, why would he?, walk, jog, gallop up to the race.
None in Preakness can outrun AP so he has to back up, 3 races in 5 weeks. Also interesting is Firing Line who appears to like lots of time between races but comes back in just 2 weeks.Small field predicted so far.
Mike
Mike,
I know the draw down with Lasix is maybe 75-100# depending on the horse.
Totally agree on Firing Line with the short rest off the big effort.
Until some of these horses hit mid stretch in Baltimore we may not know how much that Derby took out of them.
I know this might be blasphemous but the Preakness is probably a good race to pass on. Reason being the payoff are usually not too good especially for the low denomination bettor. Favorite usually wins, exotics don\'t pay much, etc.
if you believe in AP, then the pk 4 which is guaranteed at a $1m is the way to go singling AP (look at what BB pk 4 paid)
If you don\'t believe in AP, then great chance to play the race itself
Good advice. My predisposition is to not bet the Preakness due to the low payouts and prospect of having the potential of the winner going for the triple crown. A good dose or rain might change all that.
I agree unless something really stands out..
Usually my stratagy for the Preakness invest lightly to build a bankroll to go heavy in the Belmont..As we all know how the Belmont has been recently..
Good Luck
AP got really worked up in the paddock prior to the Derby per Baffert..
Race took its toll on him mentally and physically it sounds like..
joemama Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I know this might be blasphemous but the Preakness
> is probably a good race to pass on. Reason being
> the payoff are usually not too good especially for
> the low denomination bettor. Favorite usually
> wins, exotics don\'t pay much, etc.
2013 - Oxbow $32.80, $2 Tri $2061
2011 - Shackelford $27.20, $2 Tri $1401
2010 - Lookin At Lucky $6.20, $2 Tri $2770
Very impressive Tri\'s for 5 years of exotics don\'t pay much.
If the Derby winner doesn\'t win, you can make some big tickets in the Preakness. If the Derby winner misses the board (Super Saver), You can see a $1 Superfecta pay $17k with the 2nd choice winning.
Top,
Some really great points and I don\'t believe that anyone here who has been around longer than 10 minutes doubts AP\'s ability. Everyone from basically day one has raved about his action and the ease at which he travels over the ground. Many wanted to see him tested to see what he had; he was and won the Derby.
Purely from a gambling perspective I can\'t take him at 3/5 for his 3rd race in 5 weeks with the foot issue\'s, the path of least resistance taken to get there and the effort that was required for him to get the blanket of roses. I have no viable options at this moment but I\'ll come up with something. He will be a toss out of the exacta for sure here.
Good luck,
Frank D.
Frank,
Easy,let the eyeballs see how AP looks next week. Can\'t go back to Firing Line, have to feel his heart broken more than mine.
Early Vegas,
AP 6-5,
Firing Line 5,
Dortmund 5,
Competitive Edge 12,
Danzig Moon 20,
Diving Rod 30,
Mr Z 50,
Bodhisattva 100
Mike
AP will be less than 6/5 and FL will probably be less than 5-1.
Frankie won\'t be betting a deli to win a pickle either!
AP 3-5...FL/Dort 7-2-9/2...not a remote chance Competitve edge is 12-1 think more like 7/8-1
Baffert being cute about running AP and Dort but I can guarantee you he does not want to start Dortmund.
\"Baffert being cute about running AP and Dort but I can guarantee you he does not want to start Dortmund.\"
Baffy very quickly opted to not run Indian Charlie (1998 Derby favorite) in the Preakness against his buddy Pegram\'s Real Quiet
Magic,
Delicate situation. Dortmund\'s owner is presently Bafferts biggest owner as far as $$ invested in stable.
Managing the egos of multi millionaire owners tougher than training horses according to a big stable trainer.
Mike
Thanks, Mike. Figured that was the case but did not know the actual standings.
Back in \'98 it was probably easier for him to strongarm the Earnharts (assuming that was even necessary).
There is a reasonable argument out there about Dortmund\'s derby. Firstly,more than one vet opined that even mild colic COULD have adversely affected Dorts performance as colic can deteriorate a horse even though it is being treated early.
Just another thing which may or may not have some meaning.
I\'m leaning towards laying pretty low in the Preakness. The last couple of years all I did was bet a few tris in the Preakness & didn\'t have them. I have kind of bet the Preakness because I bought a seat to the Belmont, but I probably won\'t go without a Triple Crown on the line.
It was the walk over-he didn\'t dig the crowd. He then calmed down. I don\'t see how that can be considered taking it\'s toll mentally -he won the race.
If anyone has any current physical reports, I\'d love to hear them.
Who is the one horse coming out of the Derby who didn\'t throw a big number which he might react to? That would be dortmund. He has yet to get back to his fig from February. he could move forward.
Would love to see at least one pure speed type enter the Preakness so AP and/or Dortmund has to at least THINK about pushing early.
Mr. C,
Now that the Derby is over, I was able to put the similarities between Brown and AP to see the likelihood of AP winning in Baltimore.
Brown had the 2 year old turf out under Patrick Reynolds then was turned over to Tricky. A 182 day layoff began prior to his 3 year old campaign.
AP came off his 2 year old campaign with a 197 day layoff prior to his 3 year old campaign.
Both horses had 2 outs prior to winning the Derby with Brown roughly 2 pts better than AP in each of their first 2 outs.
Brown move 2 pts forward in the Derby while unchallenged, and AP moved 2 pts forward with a major challenge.
If AP came out of the Derby putting the weight back on, moves well on the track, no reason he doesn\'t have a chance to win at Baltimore. Disclaimer: I will be trying to beat him on a small scale.
I suggested in my May 2, 2015 post \"Odds on Upstart\" about my quandary with AP and Upstart and suggested I would learn something after they ran the race.
What I learned is a 3 year old Derby entrant that runs a negative number in either of his first two starts of the campaign, and has 3 or more prep races prior to the Derby likely run up the track. To the tune of 0 for 11.
9 of the 11 earned their first negative number in a race 1 1/16 or shorter.
Looking forward to getting my behind kicked next May if this doesn\'t play out. LOL
Dortmund seems like he might be the lead contender in the Preakness.
Trust me, you didn\'t learn anything from Upstart in the Derby.
smalltimer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> What I learned is a 3 year old Derby entrant that
> runs a negative number in either of his first two
> starts of the campaign, and has 3 or more prep
> races prior to the Derby likely run up the track.
> To the tune of 0 for 11.
These are assumptions being made on small samples and arbitrary rules. Are you saying if Smarty Jones had run that 0.5 on December 31st instead of January 3rd, he would have ran like crap in the Derby? Since he would have fallen under these rules.
Wouldn\'t such rules also tell us that Big Brown, Mine That Bird, and Animal Kingdom should have run-up the track in the Preakness? Those rules may have also have snagged Curlin in the Preakness.
You\'re making hay out of a small sample size. A small sample size that includes a Brother Derek who paired his negative 3yo debut in the Derby after going 5w7w.
Smarty was \'04, I went back to \'05.
Animal Kingdom, Mine That Bird and Curlin were not in the criteria that I using.
Brother Derek didn\'t win the race.
Since I live in Nebraska, do you really care if I pay $ 10.00 or $ 100.00 for a ton of hay? It would be my money.
I thought we were gonna play nice sek?
What I learned was horses with a negative number in one of their first 2 starts and 4 preps are likely to run up the track. I didn\'t know that going in, hence I played him.
You\'re privy to the reason(s) he didn\'t run to expectations, so I can appreciate that.
I\'ve been wrong before.
Brother Derek not winning the race is irrelevant. He paired up that negative number that you claimed is the reason for their demise.
Smarty missed qualifying under the criteria by less than a couple days on his first prep race.
There\'s two cases where your system failed.
I was able to find a few other horses in your system.
American Lion - Came into the derby off a Neg with a horrible long-term pattern that screamed bounce. I don\'t think too many TG players had him on their tickets.
Soldat - Ran neg in 3yo debut, and went backwards into the Derby. Terrible pattern.
What were some of the other horses? How many of them were Pletcher horses?
HP wrote:
Would love to see at least one pure speed type enter the Preakness so AP and/or Dortmund has to at least THINK about pushing early.
In my view, they do push early, nobody can keep up.
Maybe it is my rose colored glasses. But in three of the recent four years the SoCal horses controlled the pace. Others could not or did not keep up.
In 2012 lots of pre race conjecture about how Bodemeister would wilt when confronted with competition on the front end. Loose on the lead or others unable not go with?
In 2014 CC was considered no faster than many other contenders coming in to the race. Where were they during the race. CC\'s race actually looked a bit similar to AP\'s tracking the lead on the outside and out finishing the others.
In 2015 the casual observer looks at the raw times and thinks the SoCal horses had it all their own way on the lead. They were running in formation to block others from attending the pace? The expected crowd on the 2nd turn did not develop, Why is that? Either the eastern jockeys or horses are relatively slow this time of year.
Bald Assed Opinion - Eastern horses do not peak until mid summer. SoCal not so advantaged @ SAR. East Coasters traveling to DMR not so disadvantaged. The key is climate and that is physical. I\'ve read that scientists are currently exploring the GP to CD phenomena it is so noticeable.
So IMO the only possibility of seeing the three amigos get outrun early is to find a quick sprinter. To think they were relaxed and coasting on the lead is ludicrous.
firing line is in there too
Last decent odds horse to come in at the Preakness was Magic Wisenar. Can\'t even remember what year that was. The whole card is typically a chalkiest. It\'s just not for me.
12-1 and 15-1 winners aren\'t decent? Tough crowd.
\"The whole card is typically a chalkiest. It\'s just not for me.\"
Knowing in advance what the winners will pay seems like a pretty big advantage. Maybe you should reconsider.
sek,
I\'m sure everyone is as sick of this as I am, so I\'m gonna account for the horses I used, the criteria I used, and then you come back and inform me where else my, still not finished, information is wrong. At any rate, I\'m done responding to you.
Point #1. SMARTY JONES WAS 2004. I DID 2005 - 2014. Not even in the right year.
Brother Derek is in the 4th slot in the group of numbers 11-0-0-1-1. I know he ran a negative at 1 M. He didn\'t win, that\'s my point on him. He\'s also included in the group of numbers of the horses with a 3 year old debut negative, he appears in the 4 spot in that group. ACCOUNTED FOR BASED ON MY CRITERIA, NOT YOURS.
Next point. My criteria doesn\'t fail before Smarty ran in \'04, the year before I started the sample group. Brother Derek is accounted for in two different sets.
American Lion ran his first negative in his 3RD START of his 3 year old campaign, so HE ISN\'T IN THE CRITERIA OF first or 2nd race negative number. I account for American Lion who ran 11th. He appears in the first group of numbers that goes, 6th, 7th, .....11th. ACCOUNTED FOR IN MY CRITERIA.
Greeley\'s Galaxy and Bandini ran negatives in THEIR 4TH OUT OF the year, they were not a 1st or 2nd start negative, but I have both in the group as 11th and 19th place finishes.
Soldat. I know he ran a negative in his 1st 3 year old race, he also ran 11th and you\'ll find him in the other 11th spot. Okay?
Some of the other horses, I already mentioned like Greeley\'s Galaxy, Bandini, Intense Holiday, Verrazano, Itsmyluckyday, Dunkirk, Circular Quay, Keyed Entry, Afleet Alex, Bellamy Road. Curlin is not even in the conversation because he ran his negative in his 3rd start. I BELIEVE I HAVE ALL OF \'EM, according to the criteria I used on the initial project.
I didn\'t single out Pletcher cause I didn\'t single any other trainer out. This was about horses, not trainers.
sek. Would you please quit interjecting a horse like Smarty Jones who ran the previous year. Would you please understand that horses that ran a negative in the 3rd or 4th start were not in THIS criteria. You\'ve managed to merge different criteria all into the same sample group and that\'s not how it works.
TGJB. I apologize for having to defend something that I haven\'t finished all the components to yet. I seem to recall you using a small sample on Baffert or someone in the seminar in order to alert the viewers that there is or may be an emerging oddity to look at. When the initial sample is small, we use the numbers that are available at that time. Sometimes its pays dividends and sometimes it doesn\'t. As the years go on, the sample increases and then stronger conclusions are made or dismissed. Initially, the unknown result still exists.
What I find, if anything, wouldn\'t even benefit me until the next Derby.
If sek chooses to address this post, that\'s fine, cause I\'m done explaining to him.
Thanks. And apologies to the guys for these exchanges.
Those odds are fine, it just doesn\'t happen that often.
I\'ve always said I\'d love to have $2 and tomorrows results today.
smalltimer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> sek,
> I\'m sure everyone is as sick of this as I am, so
> I\'m gonna account for the horses I used, the
> criteria I used, and then you come back and inform
> me where else my, still not finished, information
> is wrong. At any rate, I\'m done responding to you.
>
Why are you getting so hostile because I pointed out flaws in your approach?
> Brother Derek is in the 4th slot in the group of
> numbers 11-0-0-1-1. I know he ran a negative at 1
> M. He didn\'t win, that\'s my point on him.
This is a poor point, because he paired his negative. Why can\'t you just acknowledge that he didn\'t fit the bill?
> Soldat. I know he ran a negative in his 1st 3 year
> old race, he also ran 11th and you\'ll find him in
> the other 11th spot. Okay?
Yes and he had a terrible pattern coming into the Derby.
> sek. Would you please quit interjecting a horse
> like Smarty Jones who ran the previous year.
> Would you please understand that horses that ran a
> negative in the 3rd or 4th start were not in THIS
> criteria. You\'ve managed to merge different
> criteria all into the same sample group and that\'s
> not how it works.
>
Smarty Jones is cited because if his 3yo debut were just 3 days earlier, he would have run a negative-3 in his second 3yo race. But it just so fits perfectly for your system that offer no logical rhyme or reason behind these horses who run Jan-Mar negative figures are coming up short in the Derby other than \"just because it fits my criteria\".
> TGJB. I apologize for having to defend something
> that I haven\'t finished all the components to yet.
> I seem to recall you using a small sample on
> Baffert or someone in the seminar in order to
> alert the viewers that there is or may be an
> emerging oddity to look at. When the initial
> sample is small, we use the numbers that are
> available at that time. Sometimes its pays
> dividends and sometimes it doesn\'t. As the years
> go on, the sample increases and then stronger
> conclusions are made or dismissed. Initially, the
> unknown result still exists.
> What I find, if anything, wouldn\'t even benefit me
> until the next Derby.
> If sek chooses to address this post, that\'s fine,
> cause I\'m done explaining to him.
>
> Thanks. And apologies to the guys for these
> exchanges.
There are no apologies necessary to anybody. You can choose not to discuss it if you want, but YOU are the one who is being out of line here, not me. I am bringing up points and discussing the merits and flaws of your system and you are getting completely bent out of shape because somebody (in this case, me) is poking holes in the parts that make no sense.
We can have a reasonable handicapping discussion without you putting on an emotional high-strung defense of it. If you don\'t want to have that kind of discussion then you can just stop replying to me, that\'s up to you.
I\'m looking for the logical reasons why your system is suppose to work, and why I shouldn\'t think of it as some sort of short-sample-sized retro fitted theory that will fall apart in future years. You\'ve yet to provide anything concrete behind this.
If he gets in, and I suspect he will, I will key Materiality on top in the Preakness. I will use in him exactas with AP, but also on top of tris and supers that allow for AP for miss the board.
Leamas.
sek,
I\'m gonna renege one time about being finished with responding.
2014-13-12-11-10-09-08=07=06=05 That is the 10 year period I used, I could not have been more clear. You insist on including Smarty who ran in 2004. My initial sheet SPECIFICALLY says the last 10 Derby\'s. I didn\'t include Seattle Slew either.
I already explain Brother Derek more than once. I don\'t care if he paired his negative, has NOTHING to do with this sample. NOTHING. He\'s in the #4 spot where he belongs in this sample.
I wasn\'t apologizing to you. I was apologizing to TGJB and everybody else in the room.
You are bringing up points with no merit sek. Please do a 10 year sample study on something and we will see if this old forensic accountant can offer suggestions.
sek. I don\'t engage in \"systems.\" I am a methodologist. I never referred to it as a \"system\" I never inferred it would work, because it is still incomplete. If it \"falls apart in future years\" it will have been a fun project to do. You think this is the first time I started with a random sample and found nothing useful? I do stuff like this because its fun.
That\'s all sek. Put something that consists of 10 years of data together, cause I\'d love to discuss its merits with you.
smalltimer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> sek,
> I\'m gonna renege one time about being finished
> with responding.
> 2014-13-12-11-10-09-08=07=06=05 That is the 10
> year period I used, I could not have been more
> clear. You insist on including Smarty who ran in
> 2004. My initial sheet SPECIFICALLY says the last
> 10 Derby\'s. I didn\'t include Seattle Slew either.
>
1. You\'re again missing the point. Smarty wouldn\'t have fit under your criteria anyway so it\'s meaningless that you didn\'t use that year. The point is, he narrowly missed by 3 days. So if there\'s some logic hidden under the criteria, this blows it up.
2. You keep pointing out that you only used 10 years. What\'s so special about the past 10 years that separates it from the previous 10 years?
> I already explain Brother Derek more than once. I
> don\'t care if he paired his negative, has NOTHING
> to do with this sample. NOTHING. He\'s in the #4
> spot where he belongs in this sample.
You don\'t care because it keeps your data perfect if you ignore it. That\'s why you dismiss it. But you cannot take a horse that paired his negative and use his 4th place finish as evidence that your discovery is solid. That is absurdity.
Again, any logic behind your criteria is destroyed by Brother Derek, because he paired his negative.
> I wasn\'t apologizing to you. I was apologizing to
> TGJB and everybody else in the room.
> You are bringing up points with no merit sek.
> Please do a 10 year sample study on something and
> we will see if this old forensic accountant can
> offer suggestions.
>
> sek. I don\'t engage in \"systems.\" I am a
> methodologist. I never referred to it as a
> \"system\" I never inferred it would work, because
> it is still incomplete. If it \"falls apart in
> future years\" it will have been a fun project to
> do. You think this is the first time I started
> with a random sample and found nothing useful? I
> do stuff like this because its fun.
>
> That\'s all sek. Put something that consists of 10
> years of data together, cause I\'d love to discuss
> its merits with you.
10-years of data? You have an 11 horse sample! And that sample is weak on its face. I see nothing of value in pointing out the failure of these 11 horses to not win the Kentucky Derby. 1 paired his negative, a bunch of others had terrible patterns coming in, and a bunch of others were sprinters who didn\'t belong in the race.
If you come up with an 11-horse sample of something and tout it as evidence of something greater on a handicapping discussion forum about TG figures, then you should be prepared to defend it from criticism without becoming hysterical. Are you really shocked that someone would dare question an 11-horse sample that is rife with flaws? The now extinct Dosage Index had more data points supporting itself than this does.
A \"toss\" out of the exacta?? LOL!!!! Good Luck. Thats not handicapping thats throwing darts. There is no foot issue. Haven\'t you listened to Baffert in all the interviews? They wanted to take off the plate after the Rebel but he did so well w it they were like screw it...why fix something thats working so well...so kept it on for the Ark D.The only reason they even had it on in his comeback race was the weather and off the layoff for extra precaution. I understand there is absolutely zero value in playing AP..and I agree that race was grueling...but for everyone...not just AP. If he gets eased in the Preakness its throwing the right dart....not handicapping, Because he is just faster then this bunch and shades owns the Preakness.
Nearly as scintillating as this exchange, but one which will be decided much more
quickly, Warren\'s Venada v Beholder at SA Saturday, in a matchup of two of the
better dirt females currently campaigning.
You seem to know everything about AP. Then, you must know that he is the only horse in Baffert\'s barn that runs with earplugs and that is because noise frustrates him. He is a very nice horse but like all other horses -- is not perfect and can be beaten under the right circumstances.
Also, don\'t believe everything you hear out of any trainer\'s mouth. Especially in the next week and a half.
smalltimer Wrote:
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> What I learned was horses with a negative number
> in one of their first 2 starts and 4 preps are
> likely to run up the track. I didn\'t know that
> going in, hence I played him.
> You\'re privy to the reason(s) he didn\'t run to
> expectations, so I can appreciate that.
> I\'ve been wrong before.
Smalltimer,
I\'m getting the distinct sense that TGJB has some inside information he\'s not going to directly share and that\'s certainly his prerogative.
Something was amiss. Not certain what it was, but that was a non effort and can\'t be factored as a pattern. You know, patterns are wonderful things, but patterns also have a way of exception.
richiebee Wrote:
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> Nearly as scintillating as this exchange, but one
> which will be decided much more
> quickly, Warren\'s Venada v Beholder at SA
> Saturday, in a matchup of two of the
> better dirt females currently campaigning.
Richie.....wasssssssssup!
Santa Anita again? Et tu, Brute, et tu?
miff Wrote:
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>
> None in Preakness can outrun AP so he has to back
> up, 3 races in 5 weeks. Also interesting is Firing
> Line who appears to like lots of time between
> races but comes back in just 2 weeks.Small field
> predicted so far.
>
>
> Mike
By outrun do you mean out pace? Or do you mean our score for a final figure?
miff Wrote:
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> Frank,
>
> Easy,let the eyeballs see how AP looks next week.
> Can\'t go back to Firing Line, have to feel his
> heart broken more than mine.
>
>
> Early Vegas,
>
> AP 6-5,
>
> Firing Line 5,
>
> Dortmund 5,
>
> Competitive Edge 12,
>
> Danzig Moon 20,
>
> Diving Rod 30,
>
> Mr Z 50,
>
> Bodhisattva 100
>
> Mike
I think Materiality is coming in for this dance.
Maybe even Carpe Diem who I didn\'t give much of a Derby prayer on surface affinity. Pletcher needs to get that one on Turf ASAP. He\'s a Keeneland type horse and we\'ve all seen what Keeneland types tend to do in the Derby. Pre surface change, funky surface and back to dirt funky surface.
T,
I\'m on board with that way of thinking. My point in the 4 preps was the others in the sample with 4 preps did very poorly. Didn\'t mean Upstart would. I would have been very happy had he brought his A game, cause I played him.
The two horses in the sample with 4 preps prior to the Derby were Verrazano and Keyed Entry. No question, most serious handicappers gave Verrazano no chance at 8/1 and no 2 year old starts. Keyed Entry had went backwards for 2 straight races after the negative and heading into the Derby going the wrong direction, it was no surprise he went off at almost 30/1.
Upstart had differences from both of those horses, and it was night and day. He was moving into the right direction headed for the Derby, had the strong 2 year old foundation, and was 20/1. There was stuff to like.
What happened, only a few people know. I\'ve been told by the man himself I don\'t know what I\'m talking about with Upstart and I accept that. I consider his Derby a non-effort for whatever the reason(s) were.
The reason I stated that I didn\'t like Upstart was the 4 preps prior to the Derby, I only had 2 horses that didn\'t have a snowballs chance in their Derby, now I had a horse that had the numbers, foundation, etc, but I went with the idea that there might be something about the 4 preps. It was a guess on my part and I wouldn\'t have minded being wrong, especially at 20/1.
Thanks man, enjoy your take on things. (I really need to put this thing to bed).
On final figures.Someone posted AP looked poorly after race or Sun, Mon. That\'s contrary to what an eyeballer saw today.Trainers like Baffert pretty adept at knowing their horses and how to attempt to get them refueled as necessary.
AP reported NOT tired in days following derby.Over the top/gutted sometimes does not show until the horse is put under stress in the next race, we\'ll see.
T,
One more mostly unrelated thought. Another poster wonders why I used the 2005-2014 years as a sample. 10 years is easy to work with. In that 10 year period we had 2 different $ 100.00 winners, several chalk winners like Brown, Orb, Chrome, Street Sense was chalky, we had Super Saver at 14.00 or so, we had Barbaro with the turf background and a bunch of horses entered that ran on or were introduced to synthetics. I thought for a random 10 year period it took a lot of things into consideration.
covelj70 Wrote:
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> T Sev,
>
> I have to say, I love your style
>
> Would be cool if you didn\'t ALWAYS automatically
> disagree with everything I post but hey, that\'s
> what makes a market!
>
> I think I know who you were referring to in that
> little diatribe and if it\'s who I think it is,
> then that\'s honestly one of the most amusing
> things in the history of this board
>
> Relative to the horse,
>
> I use the numbers to tell me how brilliant a horse
> is and the fact that this horse just ran the
> second faster Derby in history tells me you are
> selling him short in terms of how good he is.
>
> Four horses in this Derby ran figures/races that
> would have won last year\'s Derby and sure Big
> Brown won off like a locomotive in his Derby but
> he didn\'t have 2 other negative figure horses
> chasing him in that race like AP did in this
> race.
>
> He could certainly lose the Preakness but I think
> it\'s much more likely that he will lose the
> Belmont.
>
> He could bounce three points and likely still win
> the Preakness, just like BB did.
>
> That would be a pretty awful pattern for the
> Belmont and that\'s where I would take my stand
>
> However, what if this horse pairs his 3 neg in the
> Preakness and then goes into the Belmont with
> paired tops and never having gone backward.
>
> I will still play against him in the Belmont but
> not to anywhere near the same extent as I would if
> he wins the Preakness while going backwards
Cov, first off thank you. The diatribe was intended to be funny and you\'re spot on regarding the subject. You do know he threw up after that fit don\'t you? Projectile vomited, just like the character in the movie. I\'m not making that up.
You did make a couple posts that I disagreed with after making one I endorsed. I really think Materiality is the star of this crop. Time will tell. I\'m also not convinced that AP is anywhere near a Big Brown. I\'m gonna test that soon, just want a few more horses in the race. I know there\'s figure disputes, I\'m not gonna address that. I\'m going to address the 1,2,3 around the track thing. It\'s possible three pace horses were the best going in and the best coming out, but my experience says there\'s other reasons for such a result.
I\'ll look to agree with one of your next posts!
smalltimer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> T,
> One more mostly unrelated thought. Another poster
> wonders why I used the 2005-2014 years as a
> sample. 10 years is easy to work with. In that
> 10 year period we had 2 different $ 100.00
> winners, several chalk winners like Brown, Orb,
> Chrome, Street Sense was chalky, we had Super
> Saver at 14.00 or so, we had Barbaro with the turf
> background and a bunch of horses entered that ran
> on or were introduced to synthetics. I thought
> for a random 10 year period it took a lot of
> things into consideration.
I\'m not sure. I won with Brown and Street Sense, the latter was about 5-1 per my recollection coming off a poor artificial surface Keeneland Bluegrass.
I\'ve bet a lot of Derbies. Won a lot too, although I\'m on a long cold streak now. One thing that I think I\'ve learned is that each year\'s race stands apart from all that has transpired before...For example I really thought AP would be five wide at the turn due to starting in the auxiliary gate. If he had been, Firing Line gets the upset.
p.s. I wouldn\'t bet him with monopoly money, but I think Super Saver went off at 8-1.
Man I thought the link man over there was rough
Yeah, well. Are you now or have you ever been Chuckles The Clown?
No. I\'m done this time I promise. I would have been done earlier but been dodging tornadoes out here off and on for 3 hours tonight and I figured if tonight\'s the night I bite the dust I wanted closure. LOL
And to think earlier today I was drilling the link king. I agree RICH, and shame on me.
Arrest that man: he is a posting imposter!
Arrest that man: he is a posting imposter!
Leamas
TGJB Wrote:
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> Yeah, well. Are you now or have you ever been
> Chuckles The Clown?
Sounds like you are trying to name a horse? There\'s 18 characters in that phrase, isn\'t that the maximum number the Jockey Club allows in a Thoroughbred\'s name?
For me, I vote \"Chuckles\" has surfaced! bbb
You are on the shortest imaginable leash.
Lol...no I don\'t know more then anyone else on here. I consider this probably the sharpest group of professional players out there. Thats why I love seeing everyones opinions. I read and heard all about APs ear plugs as well. I think we all did. Yes he can get beat and yes he will take an L eventually. But to blatantly toss him out of the exacta in Baltimore is throwing darts not handicapping. Stand by that. I hope he gets to NY with a Triple Crown on the line. It would be a mad house. Would be worth a lot more to beat him in NY then Baltimore w a TC on the line as well. Its a win win. Beat him & get paid or he wins and witness history.