Both days are in ROTW. Derby itself was an 80/20 proposition-- 80% it\'s right the way it is, 20% it should be 2 points slower.
Based on what I read on the other board, you\'re saying there is an 80% chance you got the derby right and a 20% chance they did.....sounds about right! Seriously though, thanks for posting all of the numbers. It\'s great to be able to go back on all of the races and see where my projections were right and try to figure why a bunch were not..Thanks again, Ken
Actually, Rags has the derby equal to a TG 1/4 which is slower than all other credible fig makers which have AP in TG neg -2/-3 territory.
The Derby was not easy for any fig maker to deal with when the raw time came up so slow affirming the track slowed....by how much not clear.
Very little about the track speed that day is clear, except that you have to go by the horses and throw out assumptions about it staying constant. It\'s a textbook example of that.
Seriously, I would love to see what Jake did with the rest of the day. There was a limit how wrong you could get the Derby-- only two ways to go-- but the rest was a different story, especially if you tie yourself to crazy rules.
As you look at our sheets, a reminder of the examples I pointed out the other day-- they had Competitive Edge with a 9 top going in, 6 points slower than Gimme Da Lute, same top as Hillbilly Royalty.
And on Friday they had Covello\'s horse (Power Alert) 11, 10 his last two. His 11 = our zero.
I would have never bought the horse if I used their numbers in the first place
thank God for TG
I think that\'s the second biggest Derby figure ever behind Big Brown, right?
A tough nut this one without a doubt, having watched Mubtaahij win in Dubai I think that\'s the one figure here that really is troublesome for me.. How can it be that this 8th-place in the Kentucky Derby, beaten 9 and a half lengths despite saving a lot more ground than the winner, be almost as good a race as that victory on the world cup day? Then again the top 5\'s figures and new lines seems reasonable enough.. If it was me making these figures I would probably have it 1 point slower.
If I read their #\'s correctly they have Materiality about the same or faster than Dortmund.
In any event Materiality proves he\'s the race horse you believed he was. Plus now he knows how to pass other horses.
Smarty ran better before and after, worse that day.
Unusual result for the KD.
4 tops (of 18) and only 3Xs (two, no doubt, quit running).
Even the Oaks had 3 tops and only 1X.
Anything to be made of that?
The Oaks isn\'t the Derby, no reason 3yos shouldn\'t be running tops in the Spring. Four tops in the Derby is only a little higher than average, and since a top in the studies is defined as MORE than 1 point better, if I paired AP the only new top would be Keen Ice, by 1/4 point.
Of the four horses that ran new tops, I said in my comments that three had a chance to run them. Didn\'t see AP doing it.
How can you even ask that question? Moop beat a bunch of turf bred slugs over in Dubai, he needed to win that race by 20 for it to be impressive.
Frammento could beat a bunch of Beulah Park (RIP) stakes horses by 10 lengths and I\'m sure it would look equally impressive as he completely draws away from them in the stretch. That doesn\'t mean that he stacks up well against the top 3 year olds. Visually impressive races need to be taken in context. The ability to pull away from a group of slugs does not equal star power.
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Actually, Rags has the derby equal to a TG 1/4
> which is slower than all other credible fig makers
> which have AP in TG neg -2/-3 territory.
>
> The Derby was not easy for any fig maker to deal
> with when the raw time came up so slow affirming
> the track slowed....by how much not clear.
I can\'t put my finger on it, but that Derby doesn\'t feel right. They ran conservative fractions. (Gary Stevens was masterful meting out his speed and would have won had his horse changed leads.)
The leaders came home in 26:57 and Worse. The only horses to look decent late were Frosted, Materiality and Keen Ice and all experienced trouble which left them a whole lot to do on softish fractions.
The last race (13) looked like the track was plenty quick for maidens.
My tentative conclusion is that they did not run fast. They ran tepidly and embarrassed themselves late.
The next one will be a very good betting race.
To all people who fall in love with the next horse shipping in from Dubai, just give me all the money you were planning on betting on him and I\'ll give you 10% of it back on Derby Day, and you can call yourself a winner.
I vaguely remember you liked Upstart.
Furious Pete Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> A tough nut this one without a doubt, having
> watched Mubtaahij win in Dubai I think that\'s the
> one figure here that really is troublesome for
> me.. How can it be that this 8th-place in the
> Kentucky Derby, beaten 9 and a half lengths
> despite saving a lot more ground than the winner,
> be almost as good a race as that victory on the
> world cup day? Then again the top 5\'s figures and
> new lines seems reasonable enough.. If it was me
> making these figures I would probably have it 1
> point slower.
On this comparison the most logical thing to do is remove Mubtaahij from consideration. I believe they finally put real dirt back in over there in Dubai, (Meydan), and the times Mubtaahij ran there in his 1 3/16th races were not inspiring.
The logical thing to do is score the other Derby horses and then calculate his figure off the American horses. I\'m pretty sure that\'s how TGJB\'s guys would do it. Just ignore his Meydan numbers.
The horse ran dead on his Dubai figures. Why is this even a conversation?
Upstart and Firing Line were my A tier, Yes? What\'s that have to do with Dubai horses throwing up on Churchill Downs everytime they ship in?
Angela Renee is sitting on a big one.
sekrah,
Come on guy. Since you fell in love with Upstart do you have more right to call yourself a winner any more than those who fell in love with Mub? Neither horse measured up to their supporters expectations. It happens.
Your horse wound up watching Mub\'s slow moving Dubai rear end for 10 furlongs. Why would that make them a loser and you a winner?
Back to an earlier point I made to you. Why do you care what somebody else bets on in a race? You almost sound like the politician who thinks he can spend your money better than you.
You totally disliked Dortman, he beat 15 horses in the race including yours. The people who played him at least were in the hunt.
I did not like Upstart and I posted that on the forum. I played him on 19 different tickets in different spots out of respect for the combined brainpower in the room.
Enough about this nonsense.
smalltimer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> sekrah,
> Come on guy. Since you fell in love with Upstart
> do you have more right to call yourself a winner
> any more than those who fell in love with Mub?
> Neither horse measured up to their supporters
> expectations. It happens.
> Your horse wound up watching Mub\'s slow moving
> Dubai rear end for 10 furlongs. Why would that
> make them a loser and you a winner?
> Back to an earlier point I made to you. Why do
> you care what somebody else bets on in a race?
> You almost sound like the politician who thinks he
> can spend your money better than you.
> You totally disliked Dortman, he beat 15 horses in
> the race including yours. The people who played
> him at least were in the hunt.
> I did not like Upstart and I posted that on the
> forum. I played him on 19 different tickets in
> different spots out of respect for the combined
> brainpower in the room.
> Enough about this nonsense.
What a load of garbage you just posted. Are you serious? Do you even buy the ThoroGraph figures?
You\'re going to blast me for taking one of the fastest horses in the race at 20-1 odds (Which also was a seminar horse) because I laugh at people who keep tripping over themselves to bet garbage slow Dubai horses? Why would anybody on this site who purchases Thorograph figures use Mubtaahij? Why would someone in their right mind spend money on TG products, then bet one of the slowest horses in the race? I\'d love to hear this logic.
Oh no, I bet the fastest TG horses and best patterns, and avoided horses who weren\'t very fast. We are all just so terrible at this. If you bothered to see my exact tickets I posted in the pre-race picks thread, you would have noticed I cashed many tickets in this Derby race (along with crushing the Oaks). Any ticket with Mubtaahij on it is worth good toilet paper right now. Let me know how that works out for you.
Keep betting these slow Dubai horses if it warms your heart. I\'ll keep betting the fastest TG horses and best patterns and keep cashing tickets.
\"smalltimer\" is right.
No Comment upon the infighting.
What concerns me is Upstart, who I thought was a must use. He had good numbers and consistent form and POOF he disappeared.
To me his Derby had to be \"non effort\" with no conditioning cost. If his saddle slipped or he didn\'t take to the track he could be a Preakness starter.
If he came out with a high white blood cell count or heat in an ankle that\'s a different matter.
TGJB recommended the partial acquisition and may have some relevant information.
sekrah Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> smalltimer Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > sekrah,
> > Come on guy. Since you fell in love with
> Upstart
> > do you have more right to call yourself a
> winner
> > any more than those who fell in love with Mub?
> > Neither horse measured up to their supporters
> > expectations. It happens.
> > Your horse wound up watching Mub\'s slow moving
> > Dubai rear end for 10 furlongs. Why would that
> > make them a loser and you a winner?
> > Back to an earlier point I made to you. Why do
> > you care what somebody else bets on in a race?
> > You almost sound like the politician who thinks
> he
> > can spend your money better than you.
> > You totally disliked Dortman, he beat 15 horses
> in
> > the race including yours. The people who
> played
> > him at least were in the hunt.
> > I did not like Upstart and I posted that on the
> > forum. I played him on 19 different tickets in
> > different spots out of respect for the combined
> > brainpower in the room.
> > Enough about this nonsense.
>
>
> What a load of garbage you just posted. Are you
> serious? Do you even buy the ThoroGraph figures?
>
> You\'re going to blast me for taking one of the
> fastest horses in the race at 20-1 odds (Which
> also was a seminar horse) because I laugh at
> people who keep tripping over themselves to bet
> garbage slow Dubai horses? Why would anybody on
> this site who purchases Thorograph figures use
> Mubtaahij? Why would someone in their right mind
> spend money on TG products, then bet one of the
> slowest fucking horses in the race? I\'d love to
> hear this logic.
>
> Oh no, I bet the fastest TG horses and best
> patterns, and avoided horses who weren\'t very
> fast. We are all just so terrible at this. If
> you bothered to see my exact tickets I posted in
> the pre-race picks thread, you would have noticed
> I cashed many tickets in this Derby race (along
> with crushing the Oaks). Any ticket with
> Mubtaahij on it is worth good toilet paper right
> now. Let me know how that works out for you.
>
> Keep betting these slow Dubai horses if it warms
> your heart. I\'ll keep betting the fastest TG
> horses and best patterns and keep cashing tickets.
>
>
> \"smalltimer\" is right.
sekrah,
First of all I did not play Mub. Those that did bet Mub it didn\'t work out very well for them.
You bet one of the fastest horses in the race. How did that work out for you?
Everything I said in my post was accurate, and I did purchase the figures and the seminar.
You don\'t \"laugh\" at people who trip over themselves to bet garbage slow Dubai horses, you have to denigrate them, infer directly and indirectly that they are bunch of dumb ass betters. If those people want to bet Mub, its really none of your business, think of all that money that would have been available for your horse Upstart if he hadn\'t finish where he did?
The idea that people would purchase TG products and the bet a (insert adjective) slow horse. Same reason people purchase the product and wager on one of the fastest horses in the race who chases the entire field home.
Sek, I didn\'t \"bother\" to see what your exacta tickets were, because I don\'t give a crap what you play with your money, its your money.
The Oaks is irrelevant to this post, so try to stay on the topic.
Can you find ONE POST where I said Mub was my play? Go ahead and look, cause you won\'t find one.
I\'m fully aware that you\'ve never lost a disagreement in this forum. You will continue until post time for the Preakness if that\'s what you think it takes to win the argument.
I anticipate another rebuttal, so go for it. Unless its insulting, I\'ll let you win this argument with your straw man positions, cause I assure you TGJB has probably seen enough of this little exchange. Its a waste of time.
By the way. I enjoy reading your stuff, I have since Pants on Fire and Super Saver and the others. You have a lot of conviction in your selections, you never fail to denigrate others for their horse selections that you don\'t agree with, that\'s the only quality about you that I think is wrong. You bring a lot of opinions and information to the forum, you\'ll argue with anybody to make your point. Something to said for that. It would be nice if you weren\'t such a prick about it.
T Severini Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> No Comment upon the infighting.
>
> What concerns me is Upstart, who I thought was a
> must use. He had good numbers and consistent form
> and POOF he disappeared.
>
> To me his Derby had to be \"non effort\" with no
> conditioning cost. If his saddle slipped or he
> didn\'t take to the track he could be a Preakness
> starter.
>
> If he came out with a high white blood cell count
> or heat in an ankle that\'s a different matter.
>
> TGJB recommended the partial acquisition and may
> have some relevant information.
>
It happens. Fastest horses don\'t always fire on Derby Day, especially in a crowd of 18-20 horses. He could come back in 2 weeks and run his eyeballs out. It\'s just something that happens sometimes.
If they bring him back to the Preakness, and he looks good in training, sign me up for another round. No sweat.
Sek:
I will take Mub over Upstart in the Belmont. Upstart is a nice horse, but since Upstart\'s \"figs\" are so superior and since Mub is such a rat (as your post suggests), you should have no trouble giving me some odds. I will take up to a franklin in action from you only.
Leamas
Upstart suffered no injury, beyond that no comment, at least for now. He\'s fine.
That aside, everyone knock it off. Funny is better.
Thank you sir. I was tired of my own comments several posts ago.
That aside, everyone knock it off. Funny is better
Great oaks call!! I must admit during the stretch run and after the race i was
a bit shook up. Thank you! Thank you very much!
I found i do middle road better so...
What plans do you have for the preakness seminar if you\'re only 80% on the derby numbers? multiple patterns for same horses?
Thanks,
Flighted Iron
\"That aside, everyone knock it off. Funny is better.\"
Seriously? It matters when TGJB says it.
Louis Catorze comes to mind. Ran nondescript in the derby , then went on to take the Preakness.
Sek and Small\'
You gotta love the passion around here.
I should approach the foreigners in this race by simply throwing them out as non of them, nada one has preformed well in this race. Pissed away enough money on them to pass out that advice. Foreigners in the Belmont stakes maybe.
\"I should approach the foreigners in this race by simply throwing them out as non of them, nada one has preformed well in this race.\"
I wouldn\'t have touched Mubtaahij either to have anything to do with the payoffs in the Kentucky Derby but really that\'s my, albeit, small issue here: according to the figs he DID perform well, just about a length poorer than his race in Dubai.
I know of course that what he beat over there wasn\'t an impressive bunch, all though I think you may be underrating them a bit, after all the purse was as big as the one in the Kentucky Derby and they aren\'t giving away that kind of money for free, are they?
Anyway, for a moment take away the entire field in the Kentucky Derby and let Mubtaahij run it one more time doing exactly what he did on saturday, is it really likely that his race was as good as the one he did in Dubai? Maybe it is, I\'m not sure. Just giving my humble opinion that I do find that just a tad doubtful, but if noone else has issues with it I\'m guessing that the issue here is me, and that I\'m okay with.
EDIT (COMMENT): (it could of course be more likely that if you for a minute assume that I would be the one that is correct, it is actually the figure from Dubai that is the problem (too slow), and not the one from the Kentucky Derby).
True that. TGJB let sek and I go at it until he chose to step in and separate the fighters!
In the last couple weeks we\'ve had really intense exchanges between TGJB/Vito, TGJB/miff, and a handful of other spirited disagreements.
But, you have to admire the passion in this room, the room has a ton of talent, guys who really have a understanding of this sport. Anytime you get so many strong minded people there will be fireworks.
I read thehoarseplayers post that was re-posted a couple days ago. What was a 3 minute read took me a half hour to digest. I spent half the time looking in the dictionary to see what the hell a couple of words meant!! For me, it was equivalent to the first time someone looks at the TG figures and asks, what the hell is guy talking about?
The upside of the room, hosts, and so many talented, passionate posters? If you keep an open mind you will have to improve your chances to win.
The downside of being cast out of the room? A steady diet of links to articles that someone outside their group wrote. Links, so many articles to link to. So few people challenge the numbers that served as the foundation of people wagering real money. The unwillingness to openly publish the before and after results. TGJB puts it out there for the customers, he puts it on You Tube for the interested public to view. You don\'t think that puts Jerry Brown in the line of fire when he likes a horse that doesn\'t perform? That takes a pretty big pair, few people can handle that type of scrutiny. Dude comes in here, after the fact, ripping Jerry a new one for liking the same horse as the other place. I didn\'t see anybody over there tearing the boss to shreds for a non-producing selection.
The dialogue, or lack thereof, the spirited exchanges, or lack thereof at the other place reminds me of the scene from Major League, where the dude addresses the group by saying, \"losing is a disease.\"
So yeah, sek and I got after it for a bit, TGJB let it go then stepped in and said that\'s enough. We\'ve all seen TGJB and miff go at it in a spirited debate, we\'ve seen others get after each other in here. Those occasional battles are what defines the room, while at the same time creating a huge separation from among the customers here versus elsewhere. This board has a bunch of guys who actually give a crap. With all the strong personalities in the room, it takes somebody like TGJB to say knock it off. In here, if you\'re not ready to defend your position, you\'re gonna get steamrolled by opposing views. When sek has a position, he defends it. (And good luck steamrolling him!)
joemama Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I should approach the foreigners in this race by
> simply throwing them out as non of them, nada one
> has preformed well in this race. Pissed away
> enough money on them to pass out that advice.
> Foreigners in the Belmont stakes maybe.
The Day will come when the evidence suggests its time to bet a Foreign Horse in the Derby. Didn\'t see it with Mubtaajhi. Haven\'t seen it before either. However the fact they resurfaced Meydan makes that Day more likely.
Furious Pete Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> \"I should approach the foreigners in this race by
> simply throwing them out as non of them, nada one
> has preformed well in this race.\"
>
> I wouldn\'t have touched Mubtaahij either to have
> anything to do with the payoffs in the Kentucky
> Derby but really that\'s my, albeit, small issue
> here: according to the figs he DID perform well,
> just about a length poorer than his race in Dubai.
>
>
> I know of course that what he beat over there
> wasn\'t an impressive bunch, all though I think you
> may be underrating them a bit, after all the purse
> was as big as the one in the Kentucky Derby and
> they aren\'t giving away that kind of money for
> free, are they?
>
> Anyway, for a moment take away the entire field in
> the Kentucky Derby and let Mubtaahij run it one
> more time doing exactly what he did on saturday,
> is it really likely that his race was as good as
> the one he did in Dubai? Maybe it is, I\'m not
> sure. Just giving my humble opinion that I do find
> that just a tad doubtful, but if noone else has
> issues with it I\'m guessing that the issue here is
> me, and that I\'m okay with.
>
> EDIT (COMMENT): (it could of course be more likely
> that if you for a minute assume that I would be
> the one that is correct, it is actually the figure
> from Dubai that is the problem (too slow), and not
> the one from the Kentucky Derby).
I\'m having a great deal of trouble comprehending why we are trying to use the oddball horse as a comparator for this race.
At this point the TG fig has been right on the button with the foreign 3 year old Derby entrants. If or when the day comes and there is a foreign invader that\'s been firing some 0\'s or 1\'s over there, it could be silly to just dismiss that one, especially with FTL.
I sure as hell wouldn\'t argue to hard that TGJB\'s judgment about the Kentucky Derby is poorer than mine, by all means it\'s probably superior to mine, I just thought it could be worthy of exploration if something could be just a notch off here, and I\'m leaning towards that it might be the Dubai # that could be a point or two too slow. You said it yourself, the day will come when you might have to consider those foreigners in the KD but the evidence is not there yet, nor will it ever be if one is not willing to even consider the possibility that they may be coming closer. If Mubtaahjid actually did run a # closer to 1 than to 3 in Dubai, that might be an evidence that they\'re getting there. It\'s a hard ask to any horse, and specially a 3yo, to ship to another continent to face the best horses on their best surface in the toughest races to perform well, and doing that without lasix, and in either case one would have to say that Mubtaahij ran very well regarding all this.
However, isn\'t it fair to assume that he might have liked it a bit better in Dubai? So if in fact the dubai # was a bit too slow, as you say they have changed the surface back to dirt again, that would have implications for the figures for all the horses that he faced that day also, which again could have implications for all the figures given to Dubai-runners later on. Don\'t ever think that I do not believe that TGJB and his associates hasn\'t thought long and hard about these questions, I\'m sure they have, but still this is not an exact science and it could be very hard to spot these trends with TG\'s methods (which by my understanding is the best methods by far) if you\'re not keeping an open mind about issues like these (after all it must be a much tougher job to make ratings in Dubai, than it is in America where one knows a lot about all the horses and their performances going a long way back). Specially because in those cases where one have American figures running in the Dubai it\'s all reversed, then it is the American runners that don\'t have lasix anymore and that have shipped all around the world, to another surface, another culture etc; then they are the one that are at disadvantage. Then they are the ones more unlikely to run to their true capabilities.
So for me, it\'s just an interesting discussion. If that is not welcome here, I will be happy to stay quiet and never question the figures ever again, and I would still be buying them because as far as I\'m concerned they are much the best available when betting horses in USA.
Pete
The closest thing we\'ve had in recent times is when Regal Ransom came back to the US after running a 2 in Dubai in a year when a 2 put him in the mix. He ran 8th in the Derby. A lot of people were picking him that day.
Mub didn\'t have the numbers, but also I didn\'t like the way he was brought over. I think if someone wants to win a Derby with a UAE horse, they should have him on the plane within days of his UAE race, get him through quarantine and get him at Churchill Downs ASAP. Let him train at CD. Training him on poly in Chicago because he trained on synth in Dubai was ridiculous IMO.
OK, OK. Sorry I said anything. You gotta love this place. :-)
toppled,
I thought once he arrived at CD he was really up against it. Due to some of the reasons you cite. The days before they put him on a plane, then the logistics of being in Arlington to later be shipped to Skylight in Kentucky.
When the horse was not allowed his normal diet, the travel, training on the synthetic surface.
He was short on TG numbers to begin with, add in all other factors and that some people said when the horse got to CD he looked travel weary and drawn. That should be enough to consider him a non-threat in this field. Having said that, I still had him in various places on several tickets, even though he truly was an underlay.
I thought he ran okay running back to his established TG numbers. We all know running back to already slow numbers isn\'t gonna cut it.
Maybe in the future, horseman from Dubai will learn from this and make adjustments. If they keep sending horses over here that have been running 3\'s and 4\'s, they\'ll keep running up the track.
It looks like he Mubtaahij preformed right up to his previous races but not better. My hope is that this horse has a better one in him.
Just read on the Blood Horse that this horse will now be pointed for the Belmont Stakes instead of being turned out. My probable bet in the Belmont since I have a tendency to bet the same horses in the triple crown series unless they perform miserably and this horse did not.
joe,
Are you crazy? Wait til sek gets wind of your post. At least you have 5 weeks. LOL
j/k sek. Peace out.
I have to stick with what works for me, even if I go broke. To me the fun with playing horses is doing what I want to irrespective of what anyone else thinks. I am still looking for the time I can say \"see, I told ya.\"
Well it looks like I might be getting my chance again to bet this horse in the Belmont Stakes. Initially this was not going to be the case. That is unless a horse like Commissioner pops up. T , you were right in your assessment of this horse. In the infamous Denny Green\'s words, \'he was who you thought he was\'.
joe,
\"I have to stick with what works for me, even if I go broke.\"
If I told that to my wife, she wouldn\'t like that plan at all.
I used to tell my wife when it comes to physiology, I\'m like an idiot savant.
She always said, \"you\'re half right.\"
Probably right. A foreign horse needs to appear to be superior especially considering all that a foreign horse has to do coming over here to compete in this particular race.
I am not even going to guess what part of the \"your half right\" part she was talking about.
Well maybe the first Saturday in June was the real goal here. BTW lost money on Regal Ransom too and there was another Dubai horse in the same race as I recall. Lost money on that one too. Who says you can\'t loose twice in one race.
Joe,
Many second string foreign turf horses come over here and embarrass the \"slow\" US turf runners, many with little time to acclimate, a huge disadvantage.
Foreign dirt horses rarely do well here, most are too slow and gambling on slow is a fast way to go broke. Mut will now have his best shot at running his best in the Belmont, he\'s a bit grindy but bred well for the distance, better than any American horse that will compete.Derby was impossible for him, Belmont distance makes him legit 12-1 shot imo as slow not quite as critical going that far, breeding matters more.
Mike
Sounds like Commissioner. Grinding type bred for the distance. Will see.
The \"thank you\" was/is genuine for the Oaks. There was/is a joke there as well.Funny is a matter a taste.
As far as the question re 80/20: I think it was/is a fair question.It\'s not a personal attack.
Thanks,
Flighted iron
After review and back and forthing,Beyer raised Private Zone from 95 to 100, still quite a bit slower than TG has it.
I figured they would change it and my guess is they\'re not done. I know for a fact they read this board. It\'s easier to throw the book away when you know you\'re not out there all alone.
I am going on record: Mub hits the tri in the Belmont. I will use him in all three spots.
Leamas
Projecting out, if AP goes -1 in the Preakness with Dort and FL not far behind, (in the 0 range) all big ifs, would you change the Derby numbers before the Belmont? And if that happens, does it make tougher to go against AP in the Belmont? Latter question to the general board.
The Derby figure of TG -3 was a best effort on a day which most fig makers had all over the place.It would be very surprising if the Preakness went anywhere near TG -3.No horse shows any sign of sitting on such a number based on the debilitating derby surface and 2 week turnaround.Preakness figure will not be a strong indicator of how reflective of performance the derby figure was imo.
Evidence of that is seen in that the top 3 derby finishers did not return to the track for 4 days, only walking, then a 1 mile jog and no planned breeze before the race.Baffert left strict instructions as to the handling of AP and Dort. Owner of Dort left the decision to run in Preakness strictly up to Baffert who believes it only fair to race Dort in Preakness if horse is ok.
Thank you. For clarification, no horse is sitting on a TG -3, or no horse is even sitting on a TG -1?
That\'s very subjective but the returning derby horses do not appear to be sitting on a TG -3 and the new shooters are a little slow.
Some decent opinions out there believe that AP will benefit from finally getting into and winning a battle. Given AP\'s soundness issues and overall physicality, I\'m not of that persuasion. Have no real opinion on how AP will perform but he affirmed my original opinion that he\'s fastest.
Preakness could easily be a TG -1.
I\'m not surprised about no breeze for AP since leading up to the Derby he took 15 days from each of his 2 races to have a workout.
I can\'t see another -3 for one big reason-he\'s not going to start in post 16 and have a wide trip all the way around. He could run a race more efficiently in the Preakness & appear to go backwards when he really isn\'t. If he does that & gets in front by a comfortable margin he\'s going to be geared down like he was in the Ark Derby, where his -1 geared down was indicative that -3 was within his range. Then the most important thing going into the Belmont will be how he looks and how he works out around June 1st.