Question for TGJB: If it\'s true that track speed can change dramatically from race to race (and I accept your position that it can), wouldn\'t it follow that track bias can also change from race to race? If it can, then how do you ever assign a track bias for an entire day?
I don\'t know whether that\'s true or not and in general don\'t believe in biases. We do believe that sometimes the rail is dead, and track that not by whether horses win or not but by what figures they run. We have on rare occasions given the X for part of a card but not on and off race to race, just for the last 5 races, something like that. And we only give out X\'s when the evidence is strong-- you\'ll see Oaks day.
Thanks. That was actually my question. If track speed can change from race to race, why couldn\'t the rail be changing race to race also? And If the rail can be changing just like track speed is changing, wouldn\'t that make it impossible to determine if/when there is a dead rail? Or is there some other way to determine a dead rail within the context of a single race?
Let\'s put it this was. If that thesis is right-- that it actually comes and goes throughout the day-- then we\'re not catching it, and won\'t.
Would you concede that, as far as turf goes, soft courses tend to be more tiring and firm courses tend to carry speed farther? Wouldn\'t the same apply to deep dirt tracks and scraped dirt tracks?
No opinion but I bet there\'s a way to do a study, and you don\'t need figures to do it.
Not sure how that\'d be done. What\'s the idea?
Points of call relative to finish position.
TGJB In discussing track speed, I once spoke to some old time horseplayers who mentioned that the track at Del Mar would actually change with the tides due to the proximity to the ocean. This was years before polytrack. Have you done any studies regarding this?
Not done studies but I believe it. Tracks near the ocean are notorious for changing speed. Monmouth on occasion is nuts, especially the routes for some reason.
I agree. There is no objective way to determine whether any particular path is advantageous or disadvantageous. So it\'s best to disregard that question when handicapping.
There are already several sources of data as to daily track profile/bias.Data goes from offering an overall number for speed vs closers to how paths played(inside or outside)
Biases absolutely exist from time to time but are often misinterpreted by players. On occasion, circumstance is misread as bias. Like split variants, there are days when a speed/path bias is present for some part of the card but not the whole card.
You will not find too many sophisticated players that do not consider if a bias exist today or if one existed for the runners in the race he/she is handicapping.
It is not proven that firmer surfaces carry speed further than slower surfaces, it\'s kinda random when a bias shows up and often a function of weather and or track maintenance.Some horses have preference for firm going vs deep slow going,foot rattlers, so to speak.
For those who are trip handicappers, bias is a considerable factor in trying to find winners with darkened pp\'s.
TGJB Wrote:
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> Not done studies but I believe it. Tracks near the
> ocean are notorious for changing speed. Monmouth
> on occasion is nuts, especially the routes for
> some reason.
Yep . . . and the guys who track that factor the best, do the best.