In conducting my Post Mortem of Kentucky Derby Day I ponder the following enigmas. Not passing the race off as s..t happens or the random nature of the universe or the usual handicapping tenants, but what tool, angle or handicapping factor disclosed the opportunity.
Included are my thoughts and I am interested in the viewpoints of others especially the bomb users. In the pursuit of discovering overlays prior to the race.
Race 1
Paganol 14/1 goes wire to wire and sets off speed bias alarms. In retrospect changing track conditions cloud the issue. Hot trainer was a legit angle. My sheet read put me off this one. The 2 looked an aberration. Forecasting a jump up never entered my mind. My pace analysis made the winner a standout. TG analysis focused elsewhere banking on a for sale horse getting back to its one good number.
Race 4
Agent Di Nozzo 23/1 dominates after speed duel. Changing track conditions? Once again this horse was a stand out to me based on late pace running style. I didn\'t play him in the top spot because of sub par TG #\'s. I failed to consider the speed balls would win the pace battle and lose the race war with no recent good efforts. Trainer angle is an overlay. Note recent works over track. TG analysis voided by the multiple scratches. Which is another subject.
Race 5
Pain and Misery 27/1 I suppose the motives of Henry Dominquez shipping from New Mexico should have been worth a stab under the top two. TG analysis banks on Competitive Edge to bounce. Gimme Da Lute ? overlay @ 7/2 yet reasonable choice. I read Pain & Misery\'s pattern as positive but so slow.
Race 6
Another example of giving a horse more credit than it\'s due. I along with TG analysis thought Royal Son was a good thing. I actually overlooked Divisadero who I have won with twice previously. Once again my assessment of late pace pointed directly at the OK exacta. World Approval? I guess it is a Casse thing? Luck of the Kitten over bet Ramsey angle & misleading appearance of DRF PP. Even I could see the potential of bounce for Conquest Typhoon & Firespike.
Race 8
Tepin 9/1 down from m/l 15/1 not impossible to find Works and Frank D. did suggest. This is an improved/ing horse. The trip was surprising, especially with the pilot. The expected horses ran as expected. My takeaway is that this was a good vertical opportunity. TG sheets special.
Race 9
Nates Mineshaft 29/1 once again my pace orientation excludes the top two contenders finishing one -two. Unfortunately for me that same logic excluded the bomb. The horse does have terrific early pace capabilities. Bayern\'s celebrity fogs a bit. NM on short rest big jump who is Anne Smith. Changing track conditions lead golden?
Race 10
Sky Captain 14/1 a prime example of a TG sheet standout and bad luck.
Race 11
When you have lemons make lemonade. Upstart didn\'t fire. That is always a possibility. Getting his price was an opportunity.
Tepin was one I hit Saturday. Looking at his sheet, I\'m going by memory, it looked a lot like Santiva\'s. Nice forward line into their 4yo season, Santiva jumped up 2nd race, I thought Tepin could do the same. The lead and rail didn\'t hurt.
Tavasco Wrote:
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> Race 11
> When you have lemons make lemonade. Upstart didn\'t
> fire. That is always a possibility. Getting his
> price was an opportunity.
I hear ya, by the 11th, I had that track by the neck and was shaking it like a Pit Bull on a Poodle.
There were no surprises, save two at the very end. Materiality\'s fall from Derby Immortality and Upstart\'s still inexplicable non effort.
Based strictly on the TG figs, I think Nates Mineshaft was a difficult use in either of the top 2 spots. At least that is how i read his sheet.
I forgot to thank TG for my only winning bet of Derby day- CD3 the two horses mentioned in the analysis ran 1-2, and that trifecta payout was outstanding.
Ace:
That TG analysis was precise. How did you get the 3rd place horse? Take the TG analysis and add all at the bottom, all big prices or?
Simple. I saw the analysis liked the 2 and 4 and after looking at the sheets I liked the 4 better so I played 4/2/all, 4/all/2 multiple times. In hindsight I should have played a big exacta box also. Thanks again TG
P-Dub:
Your prowess continues to impress, horses, football next you\'ll probably tout local BB heros. I remember eating at Nate Thurmond\'s \"The Beginning\" restaurant years back cheering for Rick Barry plus rookie Wilkes et al. Cazzie Russell was as broad as a barn across the shoulders.
I was obsessed by this pattern except for application (third out) to three year olds predicting derby contenders. Good call sorry to read about the dq.
Appreciate your insight.
Tavasco Wrote:
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> P-Dub:
>
> Your prowess continues to impress, horses,
> football next you\'ll probably tout local BB heros.
> I remember eating at Nate Thurmond\'s \"The
> Beginning\" restaurant years back cheering for Rick
> Barry plus rookie Wilkes et al. Cazzie Russell was
> as broad as a barn across the shoulders.
>
> I was obsessed by this pattern except for
> application (third out) to three year olds
> predicting derby contenders. Good call sorry to
> read about the dq.
>
> Appreciate your insight.
Thanks Tavasco.
Just got home from work. I tried to post that race before it went off, but the wi-fi at the SJ Fairgrounds was crap. Used the phone after that. Frank D mentioned that horse in his P4 analysis too. Just thought Tepin had a pattern that had forward move written on it.
Before the Warriors played in Oakland, my dad would take me across the bridge to watch them play at the SF Civic auditorium. Nate Thurmond, Jeff Mullins, Cazzie, Fritz Williams, Rick Barry, etc... Very early 70\'s, I was maybe 7/8yo at the time. My dad always had access to tickets, I saw so many great players back then: Bob Love, Chet Walker, Pistol, Oscar, etc.. That 1975 championship was a loooong time ago. Its good to be a Dubs fan right about now. Curry is amazing, what a treat to watch that guy play every night.
I have 3 brothers, but my dad knew I was the sports lover. One night he puts me in the car, next thing I know the 2 of us are at the Oakland Arena watching Meadowlark, Curly, and the rest of the Globetrotters. Went to virtually every Raiders\' game during the 70\'s, and around 60+ A\'s games per year over that same period. Went to every playoff/WS game. Golden Seals hockey too. He knew the A\'s equipment manager, and before some games we would go down to the clubhouse. Vida Blue was a young stud at the time, and was one of the nicest players. Always called me over for a few words, great with kids. Every so often my mother would bake and cook food for them, they loved it. One night Dick Williams and a couple coaches came to the house for dinner. What a thrill that was, I still have the autographed picture he gave me that night. I love my Oakland sports. NOT SF, Oakland. East Bay.
Sorry for the ramble, your mention of those old Warriors brought back a flood of memories. I know many here feel the same way about their teams. It starts young and it never leaves you. I\'ve watched crappy football for over a decade, but I still love that team. I am as excited about the Dubs as Covello is about his horses. Well, almost.
Paul you should have hooked up with a young A\'s bat boy back then!!!
Maybe you could have taught him to read T-graph and he wouldn\'t have gone broke?
I saw that crew in action at the windows at Belmont when he had Lite Light and that epic battle with Meadow Star in the Mother Goose.That remains the longest photo I ever recall seeing before Meadow Star was declared the winner. Lite Light turned the tables by a wide margin in the Coaching Club Oaks and then went real sour, I don\'t think she ever won a race again, certainly not a stake.
Frank D.
Frank,
You recollection is very good. The photo took 6 minutes officially. The Coaching Club was her last career win. She had a couple in the money finishes but nothing in a subsequent stakes race.
I was in the clubhouse grandstand when they ran the CCO that day, hammer had the biggest entourage you could imagine, they loaded up to the tune of I believe over 100k to win, I think he also had a bet with Ichan on that race, those hammer guys were out of their minds in the stretch run
They put on quite the show all day at the windows. Would have loved to have taken all their action that day, they went for several hundred thousands.