I begin this post in essence talking to myself in an effort to think through any evidence of bias on Friday at CD. I am a pace oriented player so my comments reflect same. When my words seem to state universal truths please understand they do not. Just my thinking, my opinion. I\'m just an anonymous voice. An enthusiast with a limited span of attention so I often digress.
1st Race
In my excitement, I failed to consider #3 (my choice) was at least as likely to bounce as to win. I also overlooked that #6 had better early speed than #3 and no need to lead. The #7 (Toppled\'s bomber) made a nice move and could not sustain (apparently he was well intended). Then the two late running favorites bobbed and weaved up for place & show. It did surprise the crowd (26/1) that the winner finished after fading late so many previous times @ 6F. It is not impossible that the first 1/2 mile inside is tiring? @46.4 I thought my #3 was home free and my ebx promising, then the quitter finished and the finisher quit?
Race #3
Not surprising that the #5 made the pace (the #6 appeared to be declining) and in holding on for show even with a brush by the winner. The #2 surprised me and it is worth pointing out that he ran the first six furlongs on the rail before coming off for his stretch run. Further weight there is no rail bias.
Race #5
This race similar to races #3. The well regarded off the pace #5 and #11 are derailed by a front runner who finishes after failing to do so repeatedly. She is the only horse eligible to be claimed and runs the entire race wide to boot. At this point in the card Pioneer of The Nile is flashing like a neon sign in my brain. #7 LoPresti\'s charge ran well, looked promising for a while, short? No noticeable track bias
Race #7
This was one of those defeat grabbed from the jaws of victory races. I played ex\'s 5,7 over 5,7,8. Kudos to Corey Lanerie for ducking inside the pace setter. I believe I cash my exacta ticket without his move. This race developed as I expected and the inside seemed neutral.
Race #8
One hell of a race. Another example of early speed outside, out performing the crowds expectations. Proof that a gritty runt can out finish a big beautiful athlete. Noble Bird\'s (#9) backers while disappointed must have protected with an exacta saver to numb the sting some. Kudos to JV for somehow entering the stretch ahead of the #9? I noted the failure of Honor Code to bring his GP # with him. But I believe he inherited his last win he\'s just to slow early.
Race #9
I didn\'t play this race, even though I love watching turf sprints. I had to go out and resupply my bourbon for tomorrow. If I had, I didn\'t think any would out quick #11 Something Extra. My folly, I complete forgot to consider the import of Star Power. Jim & Wes congratulations party time!
Race #10
Back from the liquor store and a little distracted my intuitive self spoke up saying to me speed will not hold up here. Simultaneously my better half says #2 is pretty, that\'s the one I want. I ask her what is its name while putting things away and making my way back to the recliner. Promise Me Silver, I think a beautiful grey horse she says. Zing! I recall PMS? is unbeaten (vs ? competition is not recalled) quick key in a win bet and sit back to watch the race. Just in time to see Randy Moss finishing his recap of the West Coast horses Baffert & Sadler. Oh Shit, I think I\'m in trouble deep. Once again the infamous words of Peter Green waft through my confused mind. Oh Well! In retrospect she is beautiful.
Race #11
By now I have concluded there is no track bias. At best and likely meaningful the outside of the track is very fair and is not penalizing early speed types. In this race my only opinion is (along with most) the RR horse not going wire to wire no others have (on dirt) so he is a toss. Big price looms but I don\'t shotgun so this one is a pass for me.
I again visit the board after dinner, the news and a nap long enough to miss all the races down under only to find the Hatfields and the McCoys are at it again. Buffalo Sprinfield sang mostly saying hooray for our side.
A terrific day of racing harmless Johnny Weird brilliant! Saturday looms as good as it gets.
Hearty congratulations to Friday\'s winners and for the rest of us there is tomorrow! Gadszooks, tomorrow is here! I miss that show Breakfast at Churchill from years past.
Now to see what\'s shaking and who is buzzed.
Stalkers ruled the day, no wires, no leaders hit the board, some were longshots Deep closers fared poorly,Oaks early pace hot and a couple rallied from far back.
Usual complaints that many X\'s did not like surface which was not exceptionally fast.Have to watch early to see if anything changes today.
Molly Morgan came from mid-pack. Chatterbox was pretty far back to grab 3rd.
I think it was a fair track all around. Deep closers are typically not as good horses, and need pace meltdowns to win, so them faring poorly doesn\'t mean much for me.
It wasn\'t a \"First to the front, first to the wire\" type track, and that\'s what you have to like. Horses won from all over the track.
If you have the time please write a book. I will buy it. The handicapping library is sorely in need of a new one. Good luck today.
Good luck selling that to speed players. I\'m a Chatterbox sucked up off a pace that came up very fast in the Oaks.
Pace didn\'t slow down Maria much.
As others murmur - Oh No, don\'t encourage him!
The days play back.Marie and to a lesser extent CC received pace adjusted figures better than I\'m a Chatterbox.
Friday was Friday and today is today. Could be a completely different story... today. Hoping for a fair track.
Good luck everyone!
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The days play back.Marie and to a lesser extent CC
> received pace adjusted figures better than I\'m a
> Chatterbox.
Winner came from 4th
Place came from 3rd
Show came from 11th
Fourth came from 12th
Fifth came from 13th
The two horses that were up on the pace (Angela Renee and Condo) didn\'t figure for me. I didn\'t use either of those two horses on a single ticket.
Eight Belles: Callback and a 39-1 bomber were coming late.
Alysheba: There was a so-so pace set by a 30-1 bomber that got passed by better horses in the stretch.
La Troienne: Molly Morgan came from 9 back, the pace setter was a sprinter stretching out that looked rank.
Race 5: The winner was 20-1 and never more than a length back in the 3 path.
Race 3: Curalina was up near the pace and won by 8, a 16-1 closer that figured on TG to be competitive, came from last to get 2nd.
Anyone who thinks they see a pattern in yesterday\'s card is tricking themselves. I don\'t see any evidence that it wasn\'t fair all around. There\'s not always a bias.
okie dokie, speed was giant!
What the heck?
Miff, you had to say that? Not that you meant it.
I can call that gate to wire. (1)
I\'ll wait for more than one sample before jumping too conclusion whether it favors a style, the 2 and 4 were also up on that pace and checked out. The 3 had a previous figure good enough to win at least. Definitely faster on splits than yesterday.
HRTV reporter quoted Gary Stevens as suggesting CD surface changes every race on Derby day
Not possible, ask Ragozin.
Again, I don\'t think one should make judgements about track biases from a one-race sample unless you have an extreme collapse/survival.
Too many people try to imagine biases where there are none. There\'s 10-12 animals running around in a circle. You cannot tell me one favors one style or another based on one single run unless you see an absurd pace where all the front-runners win in merry-go-round fashion, or a super-slow pace where all the front-runners collapse.
The 4 was up on that pace and quit very early. The 2 was up on the pace and quit in the lane. The 3 was up on the pace and kept going.
I see no reason why one should factor in a track bias right now in their handicapping.
No one here suggested a bias but the surface, based on the first race,seems faster
miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> No one here suggested a bias but the surface,
> based on the first race,seems faster
Agreed.
Seems speed is holding today
Track seems fair so far. Weather look like it will be ok too. Looks like it should be around 75 degrees at post time with partly cloudy.