breeding: this horse should be at his best running from 1m to 1 1/16. sire, wild rush, did his best work at 1m and less, but was able to stretch to 9f in a few weak stakes races. average winning distance for his offspring is 6.8f, a bit short, and the TG sire stats suggest anything past 9f will be stretching it a bit. dam out of mr prospector was unraced, but second dam was a very nice turf mare in europe, and could get the longer distances. wild again and mr prospector blood leave this one with a dosage of 3.73 . based on breeding, 10f should be a difficult, but not impossible task for QGR.
pace scenerio: trainers tend to stick to the game plan when coming off stakes victories, and i expect the same here (:47.1 half in the lexington). should be one of two or three horses chasing LH, and should get a decent trip.
the numbers: the horse is fast, and improved with the switch to assmussen, a trainer who was hit with a drug suspension last year. a major concern, however, is that the horse ran a very weak final eighth in the SA derby, and was used quite hard in his last race (his third race in six weeks). now they are attempting to wheel him back on two weeks rest, in the KD no less. i have always been a big fan of this horse, and i think he has the potential to be a future champion miler, but i do not understand the current game plan. i will not be using QGR in this year\'s KD.
I tend to agree with you on the rest issue. Would he have run in the Lexingtion if he had sufficient graded earnings?
Then you have to ask yourself why did Bailey move for the other Wild Rush? Did he know he \"used\" him to get up in the Lexington?
Still, theres a history of horses running well in the Derby off of two weeks rest. Including the Santa Anita Derby, Lexington route. The only thing that sheds poor light on Quinton\'s race was the prior race won by \"Roses in May\" granted Roses is a 4yr old:
23.29, 47.36, 1:11.81, 1:36.57, 1:42.61
23.32, 47.29, 1:12.00, 1:37.36, 1:43.82
Quinton however did go wide and I\'m not positive Bailey didn\'t try to save something. I need to see a replay.
Regarding Quinton\'s breeding take a close look at his Dam\'s Dam. His mom was unraced but his grandparents that side are American speed on top of European stamina which can be effective in American racing.
Wild Rush is a relatively new sire and he was very fast. But don\'t forget the Kentucky Club Classic against Silver Charm. The Track Record in the Illinois Derby. I think it can be said with some certainty that Wild Rush was a good 9 mark horse.
Post Edited (04-24-04 14:03)
I happened to be listening to a horse racing show on a local radio station on the way to CD today, and none other than the one you guys call Ando was a featured guest. He described how he arranged for the racetrack chaplain to administer a special blessing so that Smarty Jones will win the Derby. The people I\'ve talked to say he needs it. Smarty has a skin rash and has sweated profusely ever time he\'s on the track. There\'s also talk that QGR is a head case who quits if he is surrounded by horses. Might be a bit of a problem in a 20 horse field, don\'t you think?
Don\'t know what T-Graphs position on Quinton\'s last three but I think he\'s progressing. Whether he\'s good enough to progress from here is the question. His pace style should benefit him. Recent history says the Lexington Derby route is not bad. I don\'t have last race figures on him yet. To me that will be the key in wagering upon him. Hard to buy into the surrounded by horses part. He\'s loaded into the gate before.
If Smarty J. has a rash he sure didn\'t let it bother him Saturday morning. I don\'t know does he look ill in the photo? Assuming its todays.:
http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2004/clocker/clocker0424.html
good points CtC.... i always like hearing opinions from guys who nailed the horse last time out at 5-1...... tomorrow i have three more rundowns coming, chime in ....
This is one of many outstanding posts you guys have put together over the last two weeks. Keep it up I know they require a lot of time and work, but they are helping people become better handicappers.
Also whoever helped Satish find this horse did him a good service he may turn out to be a good mid-level sire for his farm down the road. I KNOW Satish is excited about getting back to The Derby.
CtC you wrote:
>Then you have to ask yourself why did Bailey move for the other Wild Rush? Did he know he \"used\" him to get up in the Lexington?
After todays events Bailey may not be on that one either. Also let me add I do not know what is going on with Bailey regarding riding for \"Mattress\" Mac but you have to careful sometimes following him in this race. When he has nothing like this year he will ride as a HIRED GUN.
When he rode Worldly Manner he was paid the winners share by The Sheiks up front. If he did win he got double. When he rode Talk is Money he was paid by Borislew I believe 50K then eased the horse half-way thru the race.
His services this year again are/were for sale and I don\'t mean the standard $55.00, or whatever it is now.
Linda:
Any chance the legion of Ando fans that didn\'t get to hear him today could get a copy of the broadcast? How about an autographed 8x10 of the new slim, trim \"Sultan of Sod\"?
It took Bailey and his agent about half a day to decide they would not ride this colt in the Derby.....he beat up on second rate 3yos in the Lexington....eliminate.
Lots of posts on LION HEART. Two preps, speed happy Biancone, fails to conserve energy early....5 week layoff, then a huge BEYER, then back in 3 weeks for a horse that runs hard from the bell....no thank you.
What do the following Derby deep closers have in common.... FERDINAND, GATO DEL SOL, UNBRIDLED, MONARCHOS ???
They all had the ability to run one or more sharp 7f races in their 2yo or early 3yo career....translation...if you are going to come from way out of it, you better have a quick turn of foot.
Anyone know whom that might be???? Find him and you may have the Derby winner.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
IMPERIALISM
Joe B wrote,
What do the following Derby deep closers have in common.... FERDINAND, GATO DEL SOL, UNBRIDLED, MONARCHOS ???
A blistering pace. Two of those years when Ferdinand and Monarchos won the pace was crazy.
Michael D pointed out that the year Monarchos won it was because the speed drew inside. Well when Ferdinand won the all of the speed drew outside. When the speed draws next to each other they have a tendency to OVERCOOK IT trying to outrun each other for position as compared to if they are a little more spread apart. We will have to wait and see how the draw goes this year because we could again be set up for another fast one.
SJ looked pretty good in that workout. He didn\'t appear to be sweating profusely, and he seemed to be running pretty easily.
BIG ANT,
Shhhh!!! please. SJ is the least talked about KD HORSE TALKED ABOUT, WITH THE BIGGEST SHOT
Bailey is a dead piece who has lost his nerve, and his number one priority is his retirement. He needs the best or he isn\'t going to win. The way he\'s riding now reminds me of a time in the 80\'s when he hit the skids really bad. He was riding so poorly that Mack Miller ,his main man chose Eddie Maple over him to ride his stock. J.D. should pack it in before he gets hurt or he hurts someone else!!!!
I hope everyone bets him ,because i positively will not
CURIOUS, he\'s faster than all of those \"phony\" horses with GROUND LOSS #\"s .I\'M hoping he\'s not over the top and has one more in hiM ,but I admit this is the toughest KD I have seen in 40 years.This is truly an ordinary group at this point.
0-2-X
Smarty Jones is clearly the horse to beat and with the $5 Million Bonus on the line these guys will be ALL OUT.
No holding back, save some for the Preakness stuff.
And if we wins the Triple Crown he will easily be the richest race horse of all-time with another $5 Million Bonus. What a great story.
By the way miff is your older sister milf ???
no, dont\'t know milf. as much of a shot that I give SJ in the KD,the TC is the most grueling set of races in short order and it takes a special constitution as well as raw talent. I can\'t say any of this crop is worthy of my personal thinking on this subject.I do know that an awful lot of SLOW horses are being touted and I can\'t see it.That\'s what makes this game great, everyone\'s opinion.
bvehave yourself SC ,all out is good it will get him beat for sure, I like Stew Elliot but not that much,anyway 0-2-x it is.
Smarty could certainly 0-2-X. If he does it will be on the big Rebel, which Jerry says is the fastest number he can recall giving a 3yr old. I tend to believe him because I\'ve rarely seen anything like that race.
Then you have to figure the reasons he may not 0-2-X. Is that pattern as applicable to developing 3 yr olds? Who has 0-2-X\'d this year? Perhaps Value Plus, though personally I believe he tried to run too fast early in his last and met better horses. But he did appear to X. There may be others, I just can\'t come up with them off the top of my head.
He\'s developed a reasonable amount between two and three. It could be argued on developemen the negative 3 was not out of his ballpark. It may have set him back somewhat in the Ark, but he still ran a negative to my reckoning and he did it overcoming a muddy track and spotting weight.
Bottom line is he may 0-2-X, but I think its more likely that the 10 marks beats him, not a X off a three point top.
Regarding Ando I think he works his handicapping into his \"backstretch insights\". I\'d rather listen to water drip.
This in today\'s online Form:
Value Plus - Florida Derby runner-up worked four furlongs in 49.62 seconds over Belmont Park\'s main track. Trainer Todd Pletcher reiterated that Value Plus would only run should Lion Heart or Smarty Jones defect.
Pletcher\'s logic is interesting isn\'t it? I\'m still trying to figure it out. Is it as simple as 3 fast horses is worse than 2 fast horses?
Post Edited (04-25-04 15:29)
What comes next after the 0-2-X? If the X is a negative 3 (from the top) should we reasonably expect the next race to equal the top? Improve? If the X is a negative 6 is he (or she) done for a while?
Re my just posted question, I realize length of time between the X and next race is of course a consideration. Let\'s assume 6-8 weeks. What\'s next?
0= the horses top i.e. Smarty a -3.75
2= two points from the horses top i.e. Smarty -1.75
X= the following race, which in theory, will be 4+ points from the horses top.
Does anyone know how often the 0-2-X theory holds true? I realize there are a lot of relevant variables when looking at the percentages(age of horses, quality , spacing of races, etc), but as a general rule, I\'m currious how often the theory holds true.
Yes,I know this, if you strictly believe in this theory and bet accordingly, you must also believe in the tooth fairy. Each horse is different and each situation is different.There is no documented evidence of an 0=2=x but rather a pattern which shows itself from time to time.
miff wrote:
There is no documented evidence of an 0=2=x but rather a pattern which shows itself from time to time.
>
>There is no documented evidence of 0=2=x? Are you kidding? All one would have to do is look at the data over the past few years. I realize every race is different, and it can\'t be used as a blanket angle, I was simply curious as to how often this pattern presents itself, regardless of the circumstances.
I\'ve have used speed figures and sheets for over 20 yeasrs and can tell you that a horse will x, or pair up almost equally in this pattern.The circumstance presents itself everytime a horse runs a top then bounces slightly and then??? x\'s, pairs up or rarely runs a new top.That\'s what I have seen, generally.
This is obviously an issue for Jerry, but I\'ll chime in with what I understand of it.
The larger the \"0\" Top (O being a symbol in this formula and not a value) in consideration of previous tops and the amount of progression in a developing horse, the greater the chance the \"2\" (A two point regression from the 0 value) will result in an X. (A significant regression...I\'ll leave what that means for others to define)
A two point regression is four lengths so thats showing some loss of blood generally.
I don\'t know how it holds up statistically. Sometimes it does, sometimes it doesn\'t. But a three point top is fairly signifcant, but you have factor a developing horse and the amount of developement.
0-2-X to my mind is a \"beat the favorite\" strategy. If you don\'t like his odds and the graph shows 0-2-X possibility thats when you take a shot.
i have seen hundreds of pre race posts on these boards, and i have never seen anybody correctly toss a low priced favorite using the 0-2-x theory. i urge believers to give it a shot one day.
Wasn\'t Peace Rules an 0-2-X in the Preakness last year at about 9-5 odds.
I think Peace Rules ran forth
The conversation came up then.
Marc at DRF took your position.
I miss Marc
Basically CTC got it right-- there are a lot of variables, and all 0-2-x\'s are not equal.
Which is why, in the pattern studies which should be available very soon (right, Mandown?), we break the horses out by age and time of year. It becomes tricky breaking it out by degree of top, development etc., because of sample size. But we hope to have the ability to address these issues in general terms soon.
silver,
i just don\'t see examples of the 0-2-x BEFORE the race..... as for smarty, the horse could x in the derby, but i doubt it would be because of the 0-2-x theory. if he ran 1 mile at OP on may 1, the odds of an x would be extremely small.
Marc clearly made an issue of the whether or not the 0-2-X angle was really viable. However it is possible that he did this over on the Ragozin Board. Periodically he would bring his vicious bloodthirsty personal attacks over to this Board.
Jerry did what he had to do.
He banned Marc from The Board I believe for life.
I still miss the guy.
silver,
it\'s triple crown time, stick to the triple crown.........
You got it.
I had posted last year for the Preakness that PR would X (or not run his race ) and it turns out he didn\'t .I believe SJ will toss in a clunker @ CD on 01May, and there is a good chance he will, i was suprised he didn\'t riccochet in the last one. I cannot take a horse who has run that fast already at small odds, in fact i wouldn\'t like him at 10-1. It is only a matter of time before the wheels come off these types. Although they may not have 0-2-x\'ed you can include Funny Cide, War Emblem, Proud Citizen and Charismatic to the pile of horseflesh that will soon include SJ.
Sure looks like a pile of winning horseflesh to me. Three Derbies, three Preaknesses between them, and the other placed in both. And all at long odds. Yet you come to the conclusion that because Smarty Jones has a similar profile, therefore he will lose???
Remember George Santayana: \"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.\"
good points.... seems the mr prospector speed types, the horses everybody love tossing from their derby bets, have held their own recently. they rarely have the durability to be a factor in the fall, but this aint the fall.
durability, my big concern,does sj have one more in him or should he be a toss.Tough call, I would hate to blow the exotics by not using him since i feel all payoff\'s will be good this year regardless of who hits the board.
I hope you bet a bundle ,tell all your friends too
How can you toss a horse who has done nothing but win?
Think about Seattle Slew, Foolish Pleasure, even Sunny\'s Halo.
Think about Mr. Frisky and Norther Dancer
Post Edited (04-27-04 10:17)
If you think he\'s over the top, you have to toss him. Big ant is certain he\'s off the board,I\'m on the fence until I see how the track is playing on Sat.
Wasn\'t Value Plus 0-2-X or was it the distance that got to him.
Value Plus would appear to have distance limitations. SJ is still a question mark, even though he has accomplished much more than VP.
Does George Santayana have a horse running in the Derby? But seriously folks, IMO SJ is a must use at least underneath in exotics. With a good number of longshots with a fighting chance I would hate to rip a nice ticket because I left SJ out completely.
If Santayana has a horse in here, he surely is SJ. Reminiscent of Affirmed. I agree that that he is a must use, and I\'m convinced enough that I think he will be very tough to beat.
The horse crushed his competion in:Philly, on Aq inner, and @ Oaklawn, fast as he is that is not impressive to me. If he happens to draw a bad post or ends up in a speed duel that won\'t help the 58 workout can be viewed as a negative, Stew Elliot is okay ,but inexperienced in the classics.Rockhill Native & John Oldham come to mind.BTW has anyone reached out for P.Val yet?
How anyone can completely dismiss a horse that has 5 figs [not a flukey one or two] faster than lifetime tops of 17 of the prospective combatants [including the AE\'s Edd and RHT] is totally beyond me.
Sire Elusive Quality set a world record for the mile on the turf [Raise A Native sire line] BM sire Smile set track records for 9 panels at Fairmount Park 149 flat and Canterburry Downs in 148 flat [what the hey! lol]
Sure the wheels could fall off, but if he runs anywhere close to his previous figs and I don\'t have him, I\'ll ask Jason Williams to visit my home and teach me proper handling techniques for a shotgun. ;-000
SJ is much faster than most and that does not even speak to his style,(i.e NOT A GROUND LOSS TYPE)The whole question is whether he has one more in him at the distance and he will be one of the choices.
A mile on the turf ,are you kidding,Smile are you really kidding......all you have said sounds good if he had to go a mile on Saturday
If i recall correctly Smile won the BC sprint once and was beat the another time by Precisionist in the BC sprint.Smile may have gotten those 1-1/8m races you speak of ,but i have to believe that he did so under optimum conditions. If you really want to impress me tell me that he beat Turkoman @ 1-1/8m @ Belmont
Quote Big Ant re: Smarty J:
\"I hope you bet a bundle, tell all you\'re friends to.\"
LMAO
Exactly ,bet a bundle,send it in and tell everyone you know how fast the horse is ,and what a marvelous story his winning would be.He may win ,he may hit the board,but i won\'t have him
big ant:
Read a little bit, it\'s good for your health..............
http://www.reines-de-course.com/triple_crown_2004.htm
bdhsheets
I\'d been unable to sleep tonight and decided to look at a horses pedigree. Something won\'t leave me alone about it. At first I thought I saw Northern Dancer in this horse and I studied Northern Dancers Pedigree. I tend to look at four branches in pedigree. To do that you have to go back to grandparents. Its in those four main branches that I think you can see strengths or weaknesses. Granted its great to breed A.p.Indy to a Banshee Breeze or Farda Amiga, but still you might not get the genetic mix you want. I couldn\'t really compare this horse to Northern Dancer...the Nearco and Native Dancer Grandsires comparisons weren\'t exactly there. (Nearco was 14-14 up to 2 miles...Dancer was 21 for 22 up to 1.5 miles.) I guess he passed on the JCGC.
Then I read your link and it hit me. This particular horse is a performance kin to Bold Ruler. He\'s not as accomplished in preps as Bold Ruler, but thats the kind of horse he is. Bold Ruler exists in 3 of his four main branches and hes that kind of brillant.
The remaining prong where Bold ruler does not exist, is filled with quality and wouldn\'t you know that little horse I intially saw in my minds eye is there as well with his Nearco and Native Dancer contribution.
3 links through Bold Ruler brings more Nearco genetics too, which is not to say this horse is gonna be that good. But I\'m pretty sure that ancient breeding has popped up some in this guy.
You know what your right , i will now use him on top exclusively, because i believe of what you have illustrated with the bloodline, i now believe he will run a 5 pt. top on Sat.
Post Edited (04-28-04 07:00)
Tell us you like. If you don\'t want to smack down you\'re price just let us know those you\'ll probably use with an exotics shot.
By the way, I agree wholeheartedly with your bet small / win big theory. Which is not to say you can\'t ascertain trainer intent at times. Intent is the key. In the Derby I think intent is manifest, its a question of getting carried away and multiple entries. The same can be said of most graded stake racing.
Lastly, let me ask you this...where you old enough to bet Seattle Slew, Affirmed or Spectacular Bid and did you bet them?
Actually i did bet Slew and i got 2-1 on him against Affirmed.He won for fun and paid 6.20 i think that was the last real value i\'ve seen