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General Category => Ask the Experts => Topic started by: Agastache on April 30, 2015, 09:08:58 AM

Title: Stanford 50/50 to run
Post by: Agastache on April 30, 2015, 09:08:58 AM
Paulick Report (http://www.paulickreport.com/news/triple-crown/report-stanford-only-50-50-to-run-in-derby/)

According to the Paulick Report, Stanford is 50/50 to run. That would be one less pace player that the favs have to deal with. Would be a huge scratch.
Title: Re: Stanford 50/50 to run
Post by: Acesover on April 30, 2015, 09:25:47 AM
I disagree
How much significant early speed does this horse really have?
Title: Re: Stanford 50/50 to run
Post by: boston on April 30, 2015, 10:28:06 AM
Why would Pletcher scratch before early betting starts?  If Fram gets in the race CD and Mat stay in the 2 and 3 PP.  If Fram does not get the the race CD and Mat get post 3 and post 4.
Title: Re: Stanford 50/50 to run
Post by: toppled on April 30, 2015, 10:40:42 AM
Sportsmanship, not screwing Zito over.
Title: Re: Stanford 50/50 to run
Post by: boston on April 30, 2015, 10:51:51 AM
If Zito\'s horse was good enough he would have earned more than 20 points.  He is within the rules to scratch late.  If it is wrong to scratch late, then change the rules.
Title: Re: Stanford 50/50 to run
Post by: Wrongly on April 30, 2015, 10:55:43 AM
Rumor has it there will be another scratch, 888.  Question is when.
Title: Re: Stanford 50/50 to run
Post by: toppled on April 30, 2015, 10:58:47 AM
If Dallas Stewart gets his horse in there\'s going to be a big run on the prop bets for last place.
Title: Re: Stanford 50/50 to run
Post by: boston on April 30, 2015, 11:04:08 AM
Does anyone know what happens if two horses scratch?  One and Two stalls would be open?  Or One and Twenty would be open?
Title: Re: Stanford 50/50 to run
Post by: boston on April 30, 2015, 11:08:54 AM
Hopefully all have involved have sportsmanship, and they do not screw Dallas Stewart.
Title: Re: Stanford 50/50 to run
Post by: mjellish on April 30, 2015, 11:10:25 AM
Hmmm.  So if 888 scratches after early wagering starts tomorrow they leave the rail open and no one draws in.  But if 888 scratches before the advance wagering starts, they all slide down one spot and Framm draws into the 20.  So that would put Carpe on the rail.

So if it goes down that way, what happens if Pletcher waits and scratches Stanford after the advance wagering starts?  Would that pull horses 2-10 back out to their original gate and leave the rail open again?

If so, then I would say no way Pletcher scratches Stanford until after the wagering starts.
Title: Re: Stanford 50/50 to run
Post by: boston on April 30, 2015, 11:19:24 AM
I love your thinking.
Title: Re: Stanford 50/50 to run
Post by: covelj70 on April 30, 2015, 11:21:04 AM
Stanford is officially out now

Horses 12-21 all move in one slot (i.e. so AP breaks from 17 now)

no change to 10 inside posts on the Stanford scratch
Title: Re: Stanford 50/50 to run
Post by: P-Dub on April 30, 2015, 11:21:39 AM
boston Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Hopefully all have involved have sportsmanship,
> and they do not screw Dallas Stewart.


Sportsmanship?  Its about getting an edge, something athletes do in all sports.

No way Pletcher scratches Stanford early, if scratching him later improves the chances for CD.

Dallas Stewart had his chance to get his horse enough points, he wasn\'t good enough.

I don\'t know how the gate changes work, but nothing wrong with doing what is best for YOUR horse. Its ok to run a rabbit to alter pace dynamics in a race, but this isn\'t??

EDIT: Just saw JC\'s post, made no difference.
Title: Re: Stanford 50/50 to run
Post by: mjellish on April 30, 2015, 11:27:28 AM
Well, if I have the rules correct that would have been my thinking.  But either I didn\'t have them right or Pletcher didn\'t care.  So now if 888 scratches today, the Stewart horse draws in Carpe gets the rail.
Title: Re: Stanford 50/50 to run
Post by: boston on April 30, 2015, 11:31:42 AM
Pletcher is bad at all things \"Derby\".  Including not knowing when to scratch.  I sent him two emails stating what could happen if he scratches early.
Title: Re: Stanford 50/50 to run
Post by: Niall on April 30, 2015, 11:51:46 AM
More to chew on ... Post 17 = zero wins and 3% itm
Title: Re: Stanford 50/50 to run
Post by: sekrah on April 30, 2015, 12:02:05 PM
Acesover Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I disagree
> How much significant early speed does this horse
> really have?


Agree completely. Stanford has some of the slowest early papace figures in the entire race. He was no early speed participant.