...that this Derby fell apart on us.
What once looked like a terrific race with a deep and talented field with many horses coming into the race the right way has hit a bit of a speed bump.
So many of the good horses in this race either aren\'t doing well going into the race or drew poorly or both.
There\'s some logic to the idea that horses that ran big races in their final prep didn\'t come out of those races the right way (i.e. bigger you run, the tougher the race is on the horses). With that said, in the years I have been paying close attention, I don\'t ever remember so many horses a) staying on the wrong lead in their Churchill gallops 2) wearing bell boots, 3) having walk days so close to the race, 4) washing out during schooling, etc
There are always 1 or 2 that this is the case for but this year, almost every good horse in the race that looks likely to get the distance falls into one of these categories and the ones that don\'t drew terribly.
I of course could be wrong and that\'s what makes the game so great (i.e. I think one thing and T Sev. seems like no matter what I have to say he\'s going to take the opposite point of view) and that\'s what makes the game great. We can all put our money up and see how it all shakes out
problem for me with this Derby is that the only horses I think
1) are fast enough
2) can get the distance
3) are training well
4) drew well
are the two favorites and therefore this Derby became pretty much unplayable for me.
I will focus on the vertical wagers and hope to be alive (which I am usually not) to the two Baffert horses but I just can\'t bring myself to put down the kind of wager I would usually make on this race just to play the two favorites given that none of the other horses fit all the criteria that I use.
Hope I\'m wrong and it turns out to be a terrific race but I won\'t be making big plays on this one given how everything turned out
thanks to everyone for all of the great thoughts and ideas on the board, always the best time of year here and I appreciate the banter very much
good luck to all!
Certainly agree, but they still have to run the race. Assume you meant horizontal plays to the Bafferts. bbb
I meant pk 4 and pk 6
Couldn\'t disagree more. Every horse that makes sense on TG are looking very good in training and none of them got a death sentence in the draw.
The only contender one has to downgrade this week is Materiality, and a reaction to that Fla Derby effort was always a real possibility. There are a handful of great looking horses that\'ll be overlays Saturday. I cannot wait!!!!
Not sure why people who like AP are discounting Upstart. He appears to be in good enough form. If you like AP in the 18 hole, doesn\'t Upstart just have to stay on his hip all the way around? He will only get hung wide if AP gets hung wide - and then you toss them both. He doesn\'t have to worry about Far Right coming over top.
ajkreider Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Not sure why people who like AP are dvCard oiscounting
> Upstart. He appears to be in good enough form.
> If you like AP in the 18 hole, doesn\'t Upstart
> just have to stay on his hip all the way around?
> He will only get hung wide if AP gets hung wide -
> and then you toss them both. He doesn\'t have to
> worry about Far Right coming over top.
Upstart, Firing Line, and even Danzig Moon have real shots to win this race. There\'s a couple other bombers who can get a piece. This is setting up fantastically. The fear people have of Dortmund is mindblowing. This horse wouldn\'t have deserved 4-1 in last year\'s weaker Derby IMO, so what the hell is everybody afraid of with this one? I think people need to spend less time reading press clippings and more time studying the figures.
Jim,
Great, honest comments once again. One of the really intriguing things about this or any Derby is the hand-wringing leading up to the draw, and then the elation or misery when a key horse is impacted negatively.
With me, ignorance is bliss. I watch the start of the Derby every year, and this year will likely follow the same pattern.
The connections are giving instructions to the riders...get out clean, don\'t get shuffled back, hustle the horse out, don\'t get caught wide, don\'t move too early, blah, blah, blah.
Then the gate opens and 2-3 areas of the gate collapse in or out, that horse that needed to be on the front end is buried in 14th place 5 steps out of the gate, and the horse that can\'t get the distance is wide on the turn. In 30 seconds you know your goose is already cooked
The reason my ignorance on post position is bliss, the gate opens and bad things normally happen.
Its like the great American Philosopher Mike Tyson once said, \"Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.\"
That\'s how I approach it.
Have a great one!! I plan to!!
After that potential Derby winning number in Jan., he has not run straight in the stretch (was at Gulfstream for both). When he switches over to his right lead down the lane he exaggerates and ends up leaning in on horses in conjunction with the inside horses coming out both times. Not the best way to going into the biggest race of his life with the largest field. Two knocks for me for both but both related.
Given all the potential problems, arguably the best horse has won 4 out of the last 8. All but California Chrome had far outside posts to stay clear of the chaos.
A glass half-full way of looking at it might be that by using your ability to spot how these horses are doing, you have a huge edge on the crowd who are not aware that a bunch of the logical contenders seem off; you\'re using your knowledge to eliminate a number of those contenders from your tickets, and now it\'s now more likely that some 35-1 shot who happens to be thriving (if such an entrant exists) crashes the gimmick party. For argument\'s sake let\'s say one of the favorites doesn\'t get the best of trips but still runs well and winds up 3rd or 4th, the other favorite wins, and a big price runs say 2nd. AP over a 35-1 over Dortmund, or even AP/Dort/Big Balloons will still likely pay well with tons of money being spent by the crowd on major contenders who are doing poorly. You could then really hammer a limited number of combos rather than spreading. Just a thought...
That\'s an interesting question if someone wants to do the work. How often does a horse run the best figure and lose?
Easy answer, far more often if his figs are ground loaded, far less often if the horse is a tactical/speed horse that saves ground...running styles dictate that answer for the most part.
Jim, thank you, as always, for posting and keeping the board up-to-date on what is going on. Much respect for you and your eye. In other words, I certainly respect and take it serious as to your observations.
Enjoy the day Saturday and take care!
I\'m talking specifically about the Derby, and the question is answerable. And if you don\'t look at ground, by definition the winner gets the best figure.
I understand what you mean Jim. But I\'m willing to play against AP here. He\'s got foot issues and seems to train well, and everyone thinks he can run faster than he has if asked. But tend to think that if he isn\'t all that and the foot really is a problem, he might get exposed here. A 20 horse field filled with the most talented 3 year olds I have ever seen in one group is a whole different kettle of fish than he has faced before. And when someone looks him in the eye and runs with him at the mile marker, we\'re going to find out if he can run any faster when asked to. I don\'t think he can. But if I\'m wrong oh well. He would be a pretty strong bounce candidate in the Preakness.
Dortmund a whole different story. I know that isn\'t going to be popular on this board. I understand why people like Sek don\'t like him. But the figure is only part of the story. In essence, by looking at him that way you are punishing him because he only won his last race by 6 instead of 16. So by that reasoning they would like him more if the Jock had beaten the hell at him in the SA Derby. For me, his last work was more impressive to than AP\'s. He\'s won at CD and seems to love the surface. He\'s galloping like he owns the place. I think he gets the distance easily. He absolutely intimidates his competition and shrugs them off. He\'s tenacious and will fight back. And if he doesn\'t get stopped he\'s going to be hell in the lane.
Wish I saw it otherwise but I don\'t. I\'m still playing around a few ways to structure a bet, but I am going probably going to key Dort and toss AP on my serious tickets. That will not be a popular viewpoint on this board. But so be it.
Only comment on the draw is that I think Carpe and Mat have to send now at least to establish position, which I\'m pretty sure they were planning to do anyway.
And my guy says Mat does not look good in his gallops at all, to back up what you\'ve been saying although it\'s contrary to some of the stuff I\'ve read online. As they say, beauty is in the eye of the beholder but I tend to drink a lot.
this is great stuff, you\'re the best!
thanks as always
Jellish well said. I do get confused however when people say (not you) they are gonna have to send from the 2 hole to get early position and that\'s supposed to be worse than sending from the 18 or 19 hole to get early position. The horse in the 2 hole isn\'t sending to get early position he is sending to protect his position.
I\'m more worried about the possibility of another Dead CD Rail. If it\'s live and fair then look out!!!
In the Derby it hasn\'t happened in at least 10 years. We talked about this last year, as I recall.
2-4 is a very different matter.
So why don\'t you just go after the tri and super.. They always pay
Good luck and I hope Farfromover heals well for you.
Covel - Checking boxes rarely works in life, and certainly not in handicapping horses.
sekrah Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> ajkreider Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Not sure why people who like AP are dvCard
> oiscounting
> > Upstart. He appears to be in good enough form.
>
> > If you like AP in the 18 hole, doesn\'t Upstart
> > just have to stay on his hip all the way around?
>
> > He will only get hung wide if AP gets hung wide
> -
> > and then you toss them both. He doesn\'t have to
> > worry about Far Right coming over top.
>
>
> Upstart, Firing Line, and even Danzig Moon have
> real shots to win this race. There\'s a couple
> other bombers who can get a piece. This is setting
> up fantastically. The fear people have of
> Dortmund is mindblowing. This horse wouldn\'t have
> deserved 4-1 in last year\'s weaker Derby IMO, so
> what the hell is everybody afraid of with this
> one? I think people need to spend less time
> reading press clippings and more time studying the
> figures.
Forget price.
Why would Danzig Moon have a better shot at winning than Dortmund?? He just jumped way up to run a figure Dortmund has run 4 times. I think Dortmund is a horse to be dealt with this Saturday. If he doesn\'t fire a big shot I will be shocked. I like him much more than AP.
I\'m with you on Upstart, he clearly is one of the one\'s based on figures. Firing Line a beautiful forging pattern, never gone back, on figures right there with Dortmund.
I\'m all for tossing the top betting choices, but I\'m not going to dismiss them just because of their price. Nobody is fearing Dortmund as if he is going to stomp this field, but to dismiss him as being a win contender is something I disagree with. He can definitely win this race.
Carpe Diem was a horse I really liked pre-draw. He can run near the lead or off of it. Certainly fits on numbers. He broke a little tardy in the BC, but his last 2 he broke sharply. I know the pace was sharp in the BC race, perhaps the KD will be too, but he showed he can close and finish in that race. If he gets out of the gate in good order to maintain his position, and several charge to the front, he can stay right behind the first flight and save ground around the first turn. If JV can work out a trip, no reason this colt can\'t be a big factor. He certainly came running in the BC Juv.
Still figuring out ticket combos. Dortmund, CD, and FL will be prominent tho.
This is pretty much how I feel. I want to play Upstart and/or Frosted so bad, but IMO the draw hurt Upstart and he\'ll likely be caught wide...oh...and the antibiotic thing. He\'s also run 4 straight killers. I love the horse but those are legitimate concerns IMO. As far as Frosted, the throat surgery is a huge question mark. I have yet to read an article and/or post that can convince me otherwise.
It\'s not that Dortmund is the clear standout in the field, he just happens to be the one with a good draw, decent pattern, he likes Churchill, he\'s game, he\'ll get the distance, and he\'s big enough to take the beating that will likely occur in a 20 horse field.
I\'m not going to feel bad about picking a short priced horse as a key if he is the most likely winner. Some will say \"there\'s no value\" in picking him. That\'s silly. This race is nothing but value every year. Maybe not in a win bet, but there is a ton of value in the vertical wagers.
The last few pieces of the puzzle are determining if there is a track bias on Saturday, how the Pletcher horses are running, and what they look like in the post parade.
Good luck everyone
A meh horse would not have run that race Danzig Moon just ran in the Bluegrass after his TB race. This horse\'s pattern is very live to another 2-3 point move IMO. Throw in the fact he\'s looking sharp this week and could get a ground saving trip, I have to make significant use of him.
sekrah Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> A meh horse would not have run that race Danzig
> Moon just ran in the Bluegrass after his TB race.
> This horse\'s pattern is very live to another 2-3
> point move IMO. Throw in the fact he\'s looking
> sharp this week and could get a ground saving
> trip, I have to make significant use of him.
Sek,
Definitely useable underneath. That was a huge jump from his last race, and 2.5 points from his previous best. I just think, looking at the pattern, he\'s tough to use on top. If we believe thoro-pattern, a 1 in 3 chance to pair or top. 2 in 3 chance of regressing. I disagree on the win part, not that he can\'t run well enough to hit underneath at a big price.
Just asking, why do you love his pattern??
Bouncing back so quickly after that TB Derby to set a new top, I think you can almost cross that poor effort out. He\'s only moved 5 pts forward from his two year old number. He\'s eligible for another couple more.
\"Only\" 5 points?
Haha yea. It\'s a good move but from when he ran that last 2yo race? A healthy horse can get 8 from that number around this time of the year. If you cross out TB Derby, he\'s really not much different than Animal Kingdom\'s line coming in.
sekrah Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Haha yea. It\'s a good move but from when he ran
> that last 2yo race? A healthy horse can get 8
> from that number around this time of the year. If
> you cross out TB Derby, he\'s really not much
> different than Animal Kingdom\'s line coming in.
Why should we ignore that race??
AK also had the first time dirt angle working for him
There\'s a study in the seminar about exactly this question.
AK was first time dirt.
Pdub-- that one made me laugh, remembering handicapping with Richie Schwartz back in the Ragozin office. He would say \"but if you put your thumb over this one (or two or three)\" and pick out what as far as I could tell were random ones to disregard.
he was sick. I put a line through it and am using him.
As I recall Sek, you said if Animal Kingdom wins the KY Derby you would retire.
Ha...that\'s almost as good as me telling this very drunk couple in gold room at Arlington that I kind of liked AK and she said...(slurring of course)..\"WHAT?!? Animal Kingdom!?!? I would never bet that horse! It\'s the worst ****ing ride at Disney World ever!\"
They were nowhere to be found after the race
mjellish Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> As I recall Sek, you said if Animal Kingdom wins
> the KY Derby you would retire.
Probably did say that. It was an extremely poor read. The horse made more sense than I gave him credit for at the time. In the past I\'ve been a victim of attaching myself too early to either love or hate a horse before the sheets were even looked at. I think I\'m in a better place as a capper than I was 5 years ago.
You must tend to pick the wrong boxes to check in both handicapping horses and handicapping life choices.... Richiebee what do you think my friend? Best betting race in years....
sekrah Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Bouncing back so quickly after that TB Derby to
> set a new top, I think you can almost cross that
> poor effort out. He\'s only moved 5 pts forward
> from his two year old number. He\'s eligible for
> another couple more.
I\'ve gone back and forth with this one a million times. I decided the Danzig over Mr P just wasn\'t right for a mile and a quarter, then saw the draw and probable pace scenario and put him right back in there. Julian will find some trouble, but a length or two is a small price to pay for sitting inside about 10 back while letting the others battle it out. Still undecided though.
Michael D, Would you care to comment on Firing Line\'s pedigree to get the Derby distance?
Thanks.
Firing Line\'s Sunland track Record lasted 3 weeks, broken by a NM Bred going 4 wide.
http://www.drf.com/news/proceed-sets-track-record-winning-sunland-handicap
Sandreadis Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Michael D, Would you care to comment on Firing
> Line\'s pedigree to get the Derby distance?
>
>
> Thanks.
>
>
> Firing Line\'s Sunland track Record lasted 3 weeks,
> broken by a NM Bred going 4 wide.
>
> http://www.drf.com/news/proceed-sets-track-record-
> winning-sunland-handicap
a bit speedy up top.
dam sire is Red Ransom over Mr Prospector. interesting that the 3rd dam of the dam sire was bred to Mr P to get the 2nd dam of BC winner Awesome Again (& Macho Uno). in between that you see strong stamina influences Top Sider and Ack Ack.
2nd dam is Cielo over tons of stamina.
a mile and a quarter? I don\'t know. he\'s not my pick, but the pedigree is probably a touch better than it looks.
Thanks for this Michael. Very helpful.
here\'s what Haskin wrote on Bloodhorse.com:
\"His pedigree remains an enigma, as it seems to be teetering on the edge of a mile and an eighth, with a female family that traces to Forli and the great producer Kamar that could help propel him that extra eighth.\"
This is good stuff MJ. The better division, IMO, was in California this year and winner likely to come from there.
Live unders are Bolo, El K (runs hard every time and solid 2yo foundation) and Far Right (fresh and ready with a healthy pattern and my pick to be the one who improves out of the OP/FG horses).
In the Oaks I\'ll go with 2-4-6 in first leg of Oaks-Derby double.
Btw: if you haven\'t already, get the seminar. Whether you agree with it or not, it\'s better than anything you\'ll get or hear anywhere else.
Good Luck,
Joe B
Michael D. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Sandreadis Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
>
> >
> > Firing Line\'s Sunland track Record lasted 3
> weeks,
> > broken by a NM Bred going 4 wide.
> >
> >
> http://www.drf.com/news/proceed-sets-track-record-
>
> > winning-sunland-handicap
>
Pedigree aside, it may be that Sunland slowed down a touch the last three races or so. It certainly was very hot early. Regardless he gave Dortmund all he could handle.
Hey NC Tony hope all is well.
Should be a great betting race, preceded by two solid days of stakes races, with
some of the faster colts available at decent odds. JB\'s \"obsession\" has to be
taken into account, and let me echo those who have commented on the value offered
by the Oaks/Derby seminar.
Hope your son is enjoying the Mets resurgence.
Richie
Can you believe my son graduates from Penn State week from Derby Day!
My home is almost ready to move back into after last years fire on Mothers Day!!
Been a heck of a year trying to regroup so the Metsies resurgence has also added to the anticipation of more better things to come.
Yes TGJB seminar spooked me as my line of thinking was so close to his, was disappointed in that there may be more money on those horses now had he not done that... Maybe I can read sheets after all...
Let\'s Go Mets!!
NCTony
PS My Horse is running at Belmont on Sat Race 5. I may fly in to be at Belmont for Derby and the winners circle....
Any Chance you\'re at Belmont Sat?
Gotta feeling this time....
NCT:
Will be at Bel today for Oaks card. Will be taking in the Derby card from Living
Room Downs.
Was just leafing through the Form and noticed that American Pharaoh\'s half
brother, Xixixi, is running in a 5 furlong turf allowance at Pimlico on Friday.
Xixixi was claimed out of his previous start from RudyRod for 5K.
Hey NC me and the family will be in the picnic area sat, who\'s your horse in the 5th, me and my boys will check him out, how is she doing and best of luck
jbelfior Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> This is good stuff MJ. The better division, IMO,
> was in California this year and winner likely to
> come from there.
> Live unders are Bolo, El K (runs hard every time
> and solid 2yo foundation) and Far Right (fresh aVinnd
> ready with a healthy pattern and my pick to be the
> one who improves out of the OP/FG horses).
>
> In the Oaks I\'ll go with 2-4-6 in first leg of
> Oaks-Derby double.
>
> Btw: if you haven\'t already, get the seminar.
> Whether you agree with it or not, it\'s better than
> anything you\'ll get or hear anywhere else.
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B
Joe, I\'m curious of your evidence that the Cal horses were the best this year.
Dortmund and Firing Line put up their numbers while on the pace. They both have dominating wins at 1 1/8th. They both fight. Where else do you have that? Please don\'t tell me Materiality and Upstart.
Good Luck,
Joe B
Rich it is the #5 . back to turf finally will help....any other TG folks at Belmont today??
Good morning Tony,
Good luck today and I\'m glad to hear life is getting back to normal for you!
See ya at the Spa.
Frank D.
jbelfior Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Dortmund and Firing Line put up their numbers
> while on the pace. They both have dominating wins
> at 1 1/8th. They both fight. Where else do you
> have that? Please don\'t tell me Materiality and
> Upstart.
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B
So if a neg-2 horse had run in that race, Dortmund would have fought him off and run a neg-2 also? Is this what you believe?
Not buying into Upstart\'s numbers. No wins at 1 1/8 ---good luck with him at 1 1/4.
If Upstart wins the Derby I wil retire from this game. And unlike you, I mean it.
Good Luck,
Joe B
FrankD
I\'m counting the days till the Spa!!
Thanks for your kind words....
Tony