With the similar running styles, I do not think I\'d want to be in the auxiliary gate here.
As an American Pharoah supporter, I like #18 because 1)The horse inside of me is owned by the Zayats who will make it clear that he doesn\'t get in AP\'s way 2) There is no speed near him, he has about 7 horses he can clear almost from the start & get a good position. Carpe Diem & Materiality took the worst of the draw among the logical horses. Dortmund was the big winner of the draw.
I thought Firing Line was the big winner.
Love Dorts post,how wide does AP go in the first turn? Like Frosted in the 15 hole.. Carpe is now a toss for me along with Materiality..
Mostly neutrals for me. Three that were perhaps not: maybe a positive for Materiality and big negatives for AP and Upstart based on their to date running styles and previous post positions.
I don\'t know. Maybe I am only being Devil\'s Advocate here. You have DM down in there, who won\'t press, El Kabeir, who Calvin will movie to the rail. Tencendur will gun and probably so will Firing Line and Stanford. It\'s not where you would choose to be, but if either CD or Mater can settle 8th, 9th or so without have to run too wide or press the pace, it pays off later.
The way that AK, IHA and BB won from 19,20 and 11 posts, I suppose the trend says you want to be outside rather than inside. But anyone who uses too much energy to get to the turn or goes 4 wide around the first turn will probably be a casualty, too.
Disappointed in19 slot for upstart, hoping for a IHA trip. He was/ may still be my key. Looking forward to seminar analysis. Firing line, el Kaveri helped.
pres711 Wrote:
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> Disappointed in19 slot for upstart, hoping for a
> IHA trip. He was/ may still be my key. Looking
> forward to seminar analysis. Firing line, el
> Kaveri helped.
Yea it stinks, but atleast there\'s no speed in the 20 hole trying to race out and get across.
I think Upstart, Carpe Deim and Materiality the worse of it as for the true contenders for the race. AP draw was better then anything down inside IMO. So kinda a neutral draw for him. I think Frosted drew well at the 15. Dortmund may have got a bad post almost right in the middle of the field as speed on his inside and outside I def could see him being bumped in the first turn from both sides. I really think this post draw makes the race even more interesting from a betting standpoint.
Pletcher horses are def up against it in this field now.
Statistically his draw in the Florida derby was probably worst. He still ran his eyeballs out, does every time. Will probably spread a little more than planned. Well see. Wide may be better than bumper cars inside. Will be 20-1 now.
toppled Wrote:
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> As an American Pharoah supporter, I like #18
> because 1)The horse inside of me is owned by the
> Zayats who will make it clear that he doesn\'t get
> in AP\'s way 2) There is no speed near him, he has
> about 7 horses he can clear almost from the start
> & get a good position. Carpe Diem & Materiality
> took the worst of the draw among the logical
> horses. Dortmund was the big winner of the draw.
18 is good luck in Jewish culture.
I\'m going to say that it makes absolutely no difference that the other stupid Zayat horse is in there next to him. Is Zayat going to able to make sure he doesn\'t veer in front of AP. It\'s a horrible draw for AP. In order for him not to lose ground he has to work his ass off and butt heads with whoever else is up there, and there is no way he will walk up there by himself. Outside draw is okay for a CLOSER. Frosted got the best of it.
He was....and he will be dangerous.
Good Luck,
Joe B
Upstart started in the 11 hole for the BCJUVY.I though he rated nice was 5 th at the 2nd call and finished 3rd losing 2nd on the last stride to Diem..
I can see an \"I\'ll Have another\" type of trip from him..
I would rather be in the 19 hole than the 2 spot..
Good luck
Been looking at the draw more..
I\'m moving Danzig Moon up into my Top 5 with this draw. He\'s already got the intriguing pattern, and has been working like a beast. He has a real chance at a quiet, ground-saving trip into the first turn, much like Super Saver. The speed underneath him will be gunning to get out of the meat grinder and he should be able to relax in a pocket behind the leaders. It\'ll all be about a hole opening up for him.
It already feels like he could run a new top here, neg-1 maybe? A 1w in the first turn and he\'s halfway to the roses.
Frosted\'s Remsen is one to take a look at also.
Thanks Mama, I have watched every replay at least 3 times... He broke fromthe 13 hole in that one.. I don\'t see a repeat performance though.
I\'m seeing more of a Wood type of run.. I am guessing he will be around 10th 11th going down the back stretch..
Can\'t believe MUB is 20-1 biggest overlay to me..
Good Luck..
I\'m more inclined to use Bolo a little more after the draw. Like many others I like Danzig Moon to be in the mix, but I\'m nervous about LeParoux being able to work out a trip from the inside. I still have that horrific ride he put on Union Rags a few years ago stuck in my mind.
Jack that is a great point, Frenchy had the favorite 2 years in a row Dialed In and Union Rags and his rides were horrible to the point I vowed to never play him again on the dirt.. Now he is on what seems to be every ones #1 bomber pick including me..
My nerves
Good Luck
I think you have to move up Dortmund. He lost a shoe at the start of the SA Derby plus has Big Brown and Bob Baffert. I like his draw.
6,15,all tri box
I also lost on him on Dialed In and Union Rags. I am not going broke trying to get my money back on that guy.
The 8 post is a very good one.
It would be better for them if the Bafferts swapped. Dortmund would be better off outside, big guy allowed to do his thing and get his space. I say it\'s a bad draw for him. Those jocks inside will have to earn their money, but if there\'s pace they will be fine. Maybe they will let Zayat lay out traffic cones so AP can have room. I can\'t wait to see him break and have to fight. Maybe he proves he is a real champ here? Could be a fantastic race.
The problem is Dortmund is not fast enough, and his pattern doesn\'t scream new top. You\'re getting 3-1 or 4-1 on a horse like that? What\'s there to like?
He has been fast enough 6 times.. Has won at the Downs as well.
Ill take may chances.. Good Luck
A few things to like:
He\'s big and he\'ll more than likely be able to find a comfortable position behind the first flight.
He\'ll get 10f.
Had a lead against Firing Line in the stretch in the Bob Lewis, gave it up, and he came back to beat him. Gutsy
He\'s run a figure fast enough to win.
He\'s won at the Churchill
I understand the pattern piece of it, but considering all of the others have question marks and a lot of the main threats have terrible post positions the horse a lot going for him. Yeah the price will be low but there is likely to be plenty of value underneath.
Well Dortmund\'s best is 8th fastest coming into this race, and since the SA Derby he\'s been handled with kid gloves by a trainer who usually zings bullets.
It\'s your money, not mine.
Not a peep from the elders since the draw. They must have their crayons out drawing trakuslike pictures of the race.
Dortmund\'s work between horses on the 18th was as good as a horse can work (American Pharoah aside) and the best of sixty that morning with a bunch left in the tank. bbb
bellsbendboy Wrote:
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> Dortmund\'s work between horses on the 18th was as
> good as a horse can work (American Pharoah
> aside)and was the best of sixty that morning with
> a bunch left in the tank. bbb
And there\'s 7 horses in this race who have ran faster figures than him. Dortumund has faced none of those horses. What makes his races so special when there\'s 7 other horses running in different races around the country that have been faster?
I understand traditional handicapping techniques have people liking this horse, but this is not why I come to this forum and pay for TG figures.
My question is, why would anyone pay for TG figs and then go ahead and make Dortmund, a fringe contender on TG sheets at an awful price, as their key? Why not just go with your regular handicapping techniques and save your $25?
Not to be antagonistic, but the short of it is, the given figure is not nearly as important... as HOW it was earned. bbb
bbb,
you realize you will not win this argument? LOL
I use these figures because I trust them more than any other. That\'s why I spend the $40 on the seminar and pre-entries. Speed figures are one piece of the big puzzle. Yes we can see that there are seven horses faster, but will all 7 be faster than him on Saturday? For a lot of reasons, I doubt it.
I get that this is a TG board and we can discuss who is going to run the fastest figure on Saturday, but we all know that the fastest figure doesn\'t always win the race. Just ask Zenyatta
what might his figure have been if he didn\'t lose that shoe? i don\'t know what difference that would make, but I can imagine a little bit better. i am also not saying, \"make him your key\". i am just saying he has to be a contender.
bellsbendboy Wrote:
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> Not to be antagonistic, but the short of it is,
> the given figure is not nearly as important... as
> HOW it was earned. bbb
Hey, I adjust figures too based on how I see a race. The figs aren\'t in ink for me. But I see nothing Dortmund did in any of his races to adjust any of his figures enough to make him a serious contender here.
What, he came back against a tiring horse so that\'ll be worth 2-3 extra points when he runs against better animals? That is ridiculous if you believe that.
Agree that it\'s not terrible for Materiality. Has enough speed and size to force the inside two to give way. Nothing outside until Dortmund, who often doesn\'t get the best break. Methinks the rail may be available into the first turn.
Dirt in the face may be another matter.
Here\'s a statement I want you think about:
Flip Bolo and Dortmund\'s paths in the SA Derby, and Bolo beats him.
If you don\'t believe that statement and if you believe Dortmund would have won just the same, then you are not using TG Sheets the way they were intended to be used. There are several amazing animals that haven\'t faced Dortmund and have turned in faster figs. If you think Jerry is selling Cali figs short, why bother purchasing them?
Dortmund reminds of Union Rags. The horse looked good on traditional handicapping methods, but on TG sheets was about 7th fastest with a mediocre pattern, and people were tripping over themselves to send him off at 5-1.
As a \"Beat American Pharoah\" handicapper, I\'m ecstatic.
It couldn\'t be better.
Nobody wins all the time and hopefully nobody looses all the time..
Good luck
Good Seminar
Bolo doesn\'t have the talent to do what Dortmund has done on several occasions. Not even close in ability.
Not getting into the argument. Only responded because the poster indicated last night that Carpe Diem\'s spacing didn\'t appeal to him, and to me it is impeccable, and then tonight Dortmund is not working in the black.
The bottom line is that sheet figures are data and handicappers can assess that data any way they choose. Correctly identifying when a pattern (form cycle ) starts and/or stops, then using integers to support that theory is a good first step.
A case in point is Frosted, the Godolphin runner. When he made the lead in the Fountain of Youth, with first blinkers, he looked a sure winner and stopped. The barn left the hood on, made household changes, and bet as hard as a stable can bet. The, then nonstakes winner, picked up a new boy, seven additional pounds and won the Wood well clear earning a figure good enough to win Saturday. If one views his last as \"form\"... a major player. bbb
Didn\'t Union Rags win the Belmont?
Anyway, this horse is 17 hands and his pedigree is carried some by that stride.
Out of a Derby winner with a tail female Coaching Club of America Oaks winner in his pedigree.
If he gets beat, it will be pace that beats him. Haven\'t addressed the pace issue yet, but it will be a major variable in what the final winning figure will be.
sekrah Wrote:
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> Here\'s a statement I want you think about:
>
> Flip Bolo and Dortmund\'s paths in the SA Derby,
> and Bolo beats him.
>
> If you don\'t believe that statement and if you
> believe Dortmund would have won just the same,
> then you are not using TG Sheets the way they were
> intended to be used. There are several amazing
> animals that haven\'t faced Dortmund and have
> turned in faster figs. If you think Jerry is
> selling Cali figs short, why bother purchasing
> them?
>
> Dortmund reminds of Union Rags. The horse looked
> good on traditional handicapping methods, but on
> TG sheets was about 7th fastest with a mediocre
> pattern, and people were tripping over themselves
> to send him off at 5-1.
Ah Pace. Yes for a couple of weeks I have been expecting a Materiality vs Dortmund hookup. Now after the post position draw that scenario (of the many) looks very possible. In fact the two could hook up for the 1st mile. Cassidy says he plans to take Ocho Ocho Ocho back to second tier and expects Carpe Diem to go with pace. Interesting?
The second turn ground loss MJellish forecast in his original analysis looms certain (IMO) in this scenario with the two BIG horses in the lead and others making moves. Who slips through inside? This c/b the key.
Some posters cite Bolos ground loss seemingly as a positive. I do not. I see Dortmunds ability to run a shorter distance as the positive. I\'m not a Dortmund fan, it\'s the principal. I will have no vertical tickets that include both Materiality & Dortmund. Kind of a Highlander thing.
Randy Moss, who sees races in terms of pace and is a part of the Beyer team mentioned his like for Mub. Last I think International Star is one of those most compromised by the draw. He\'ll be stuck in a box until it is too late to make an impact. Oh Well, not a fan of his either but I can now leave him off my supers with confidence.