Never good when a horse gets hot a few days in a row and then stays on wrong lead in a gallop.
breeze was good but not great and doesn\'t seem to have come out of it too well.
clearly something bugging the horse. Maybe resolves itself before Sat but either way, don\'t think I can key this horse at this point
it\'s too bad
I really liked him
A quote from the great one.
\"Horses and strawberries can go bad in a day.\" - Charlie Whittingham
Wow.
I won\'t be throwing the horse out entirely because the most important lesson I ever learned about the Derby came from Ice Box
I was all over Super Saver on top but had a big and deep exacta but throw out Ice Box because the horse literally came limping off the track the day before the race and could barely make it back to his stall. Everyone around me commented on how terrible he looked.
He then proceeded to run the race of his life and was hardly ever heard from thereafter.
So, I won\'t be throwing the horse out because of my Ice Box experience but I am looking for a new key horse for Saturday.
A lot of people didn\'t love CC last year either.
I\'m telling you, there\'s a lot of noise to wade through for this race every year that you don\'t have to deal with for any other. I\'ve seen some things-- even here-- that make me roll my eyes.
ShamWow!
you\'re absolutely right that CC wasn\'t moving great before last years Derby but
a) he didn\'t run anywhere near fast enough as someone will need to to win on Saturday, and
b) he just wasn\'t moving great, he wasn\'t washed out in the mornings and staying on the wrong lead.
being stiff (which CC was) and showing signs that something could be bugging you (which Mat is) are in totally different leagues.
My point is only that you\'re right not to throw out fast horses at prices. For once we agree.
As you know, I tossed CC last year. The CC that won, not the one that ran second at 200-1.
hah, funny
we agree on a lot, it\'s just more fun to get your blood pressure up by focusing on the things we don\'t agree on :)
lol
Jim:
Thanks for cementing what I\'ve heard as well.
This certainly adds to those that stated the same thing the last 2 days that were at the track. He doesn\'t look himself. They stated washy look and has gotten hot the last 2 mornings.
covelj70 Wrote:
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well,
I watched a breeze from four days ago that clearly had him looking good. No sweat noted anywhere. If you watch it, note how high the exercise rider is up in the saddle, while the workmate\'s rider is down in speed posture. It looks like Larry Jones riding Eight Belle\'s, it\'s really quite comical.
Note also how the big exercise rider\'s foot comes out of the right stirrup on the near turn and again right at gear down time. Not sure if that signifies a problem or not, but it\'s a bit odd. Alone I\'d pay no significance to it, because to my eye the rider is trying to gear him down throughout and he\'s clearly on the proper lead in the stretch.
Now you\'re saying he came out to gallop today and looked sweated up and never got off the right lead? Well, Mike Welsh thought he galloped strong and a horse that isn\'t tired won\'t always change leads.
If you\'ve lost courage, that\'s your prerogative, but please don\'t come back after the race and say \"I stuck with him\". Like Dosage, the Apollo bubble is bound to burst. If you\'re gonna beat TGJB at his own game you gotta take him out when he\'s adamant about a trend. Pletcher leaves a lot of horse in the major Prep Races, but a lot of horse will one day overcome him.
Materiality 4/24 (http://www.kentuckyderby.com/workouts)
> Never good when a horse gets hot a few days in a
> row and then stays on wrong lead in a gallop.
>
> breeze was good but not great and doesn\'t seem to
> have come out of it too well.
>
> clearly something bugging the horse. Maybe
> resolves itself before Sat but either way, don\'t
> think I can key this horse at this point
>
> it\'s too bad
>
> I really liked him
\"Take me out\"? Who are you exactly?
T,Sev.If you\'re planning on \"taking him out\" can u please wait til after he posts the seminar.I\'m gonna be chugging down Red Bull all day coming off a 24hr shift at work,and like an 8yr old on xmas eve anticipating his gifts,I won\'t be able to sleep until I read the big guys comments on one heck of an interesting oaks-derby.....If you wanna take him out after,feel free,but I have to warn you,while reading what I think was the Barry Irwin-thorograph marriage article a few weeks back my wife glanced at the computer,saw TGJB\'S mug,and said \"I wouldn\'t wanna run into that guy in a dark alley\".
If you take him out make sure he\'s allowed to order anything on the menu.
... I have my suspicions...
Probably an Italian, they are always causing trouble over here.
When he says \"take him out\" I think he is talking about the horse, Materiality, not JB. Tough room.
Really? Your wife hurt my feelings worse than that guy did. You should see what my passport photo looks like, much worse. That one even scares me.
HP Wrote:
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> When he says \"take him out\" I think he is talking
> about the horse, Materiality, not JB. Tough room.
Tough room indeed. On this thread alone we have \"take him out\" and \"I wouldn\'t wanna run into that guy in a dark alley.\" We better just hope that Joe Drape doesn\'t read this, or we\'re going to see an article about how racing has crossed the line from lovable Runyonesque characters to \"On the Waterfront\" territory.
Haaaaa!
Jerry if you\'re taping the seminar and they want your good side turn around.
Cov - any thoughts on Wednesday about Materiality?
Here is what Welsch stated about Wednesday gallops:
MATERIALITY, who did get hot during a routine schooling session in the paddock yesterday afternoon, looked fine this morning turning in another in a series of strong gallops before visiting the starting gate for the second straight morning . He appeared to have just a hint of neck sweat, from my vantage point, when jogging back to leave the track.
was on left lead again coming down the lane this morning
maybe means something, maybe doesn\'t but he never did that in Florida
I am using two key horses for my super (i.e. those two need to come in any spot in the top 4) and then I fill it out with the others I give a shot to.
I was going to key AP and Mat.
I will still use Mat as one of the \"others\" but he won\'t be the second key.
Still looking for that horse now that I moved Mat to the \"other\" category.
Thank you for the information.
covelj70 Wrote:
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> was on left lead again coming down the lane this
> morning
>
> maybe means something, maybe doesn\'t but he never
> did that in Florida
>
> I am using two key horses for my super (i.e. those
> two need to come in any spot in the top 4) and
> then I fill it out with the others I give a shot
> to.
>
> I was going to key AP and Mat.
>
> I will still use Mat as one of the \"others\" but he
> won\'t be the second key.
>
> Still looking for that horse now that I moved Mat
> to the \"other\" category.
your other second key doesn\'t have to be one horse. You could make two sets of tickets. Both with AP as Key 1, but one set with Frosted as Key 2 and another set with Upstart as Key 2. Yes, you spend twice as much, but also you get yourself some space on a decision that is obviously tough for you to make.
Not that you need any help Jim but it seems difficult to leave out Carpe Diem. My read on the TG figs leads me to believe he is the most likely horse to run a negative number; outside of the freak. bbb
Jim, as you may remember I bet it that way in 2011 except I had 3 horses and needed two of them to hit the Tri. Used Arch Arch Arch, Animal Kingdom and Shackleford. Used AK and Shak stronger and backed off a bit on Archx3 after he drew the rail. Took 1st and 4th with two colts over 20-1 and wound up with Stugots. Considering Shackleford came back to win the Preakness, I figure the bad rail at Churchill on Derby Day only cost me $1M.
Point I\'m trying to make is this - I know some of these look hopelessly overmatched. But don\'t get cheap (not that you would) and just miss when someone lugs up into 4th. Do yourself a favor and go watch replays of the last 5 Ky Derbys and note who lugs up into 3rd or 4th, even 2nd. Not saying this will happen this year. But I would be using ALL for 4th if I really found two colts I liked to key.
As an aside, if you don\'t have two colts you like at this point you may want to reconsider how you are structuring your bet rather than trying to find a colt that will fit your structure.
MJ, that last sentence is crucial.
\"What do I like about this race\"? Answering that usually helps you decide how to play.
covelj70 Wrote:
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> was on left lead again coming down the lane this
> morning
>
> maybe means something, maybe doesn\'t but he never
> did that in Florida
>
> I am using two key horses for my super (i.e. those
> two need to come in any spot in the top 4) and
> then I fill it out with the others I give a shot
> to.
>
> I was going to key AP and Mat.
In have been out each morning, I thought materiality looked great and got over the track wonderfully. Though I was on the backside and didn\'t see him gallop down the lane. Coming to the track he was cool and composed
This is my 31st consecutive derby and I\'ve never seen a group look so good. Usually, some are drawn and clearly over the top. Others or sore and travel poorly but this group is exceptional. A couple of random observations:
1. Carpe,materiality, ap, Dortmund all look and travelled exceptionally
2. Firing looks good and galloped nicely but small and have traffic concerns
3. Didn\'t see upstart but heard from respected source he went brilliantly
4. Ocho looks dehydrated, small and over the top
5. Mubtaahg appeared small n travel weary
6. Not impressed with the other appearances other than frosted who looked and travelled well
This is one hell of a puzzle????
>
> I will still use Mat as one of the \"others\" but he
> won\'t be the second key.
>
> Still looking for that horse now that I moved Mat
> to the \"other\" category.
Shackleford in the Preakness. From what I call he was a complete mess before the race. Romans said afterward he usually looks that way, don\'t think he did in the derby. My question is, can you look for anything in particular in a washy horse that indicates he may still run well?
miff Wrote:
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> Probably an Italian, they are always causing
> trouble over here.
So that\'s why I act like I do.
With the goatee, I thought JB looks a bit like James Gandolfini. Maybe the guy confused him with Tony Soprano. That guy was known for whacking a few guys.
Paul,
He\'s meaner than he looks, probably Italian. Have not seen JB in moons but last time I did he said \"What the f-k do you want Mike, I\'m busy working\" Actually pretty standard greeting amongst us New Yorkers.
Mike
That reminds me of the old joke ...
Q: How many New Yorkers does it take to screw in a lightbulb?
A: Shut up and mind your own f#@king business!
Mike, I hope to hell I didn\'t say that, at least the curse part. It was back when we were on Hudson st., do remember that, and I was pretty stressed back then.
I once thought I was going to have to fight Gandolfini in a bar, fortunately did not, he was a house. He used to tend bar at that place before he made it, though this was much later.
You blew it TGJB.
How many guys could actually say they got their a@@ whipped by Tony Soprano in real life? That\'s folklore man!!
JB,
We were just sparring as we still do time to time,trading f-bombs,all good.It was during the good old days of the chicken scratched hand written TG figures which format I liked BETTER....admittedly times/markets have changed.Now everybody knows that 2-1 shot that used to be 5-1.
Mike
Getting nervous about the eerie quietness from the other trench. It\'s like no man\'s land WWI. Then you hear their whistle blow and the bagpipes start up and you know all hell is about to break loose. Love both camps- thought it time for a little humour and you guys jump on and off horses better than Cossacks! Good luck lads.
Excellent...
There aren\'t enough guys left over there to have a war with. And none that know enough to have a real debate with.
If anyone goes to their seminar or hears, I would love to know who Friedman picks. Not here, email or person to person.
Friend Raggie Richie and his Rag entourage betting out on Upstart.It was also stated that Dortmund looks like a quasi 0 2 going in by his read.
Tell them I\'m involved with Upstart, that\'ll get them off him.
Other room. Upstart post 4-21-15. 7:38 a.m.
(racemaven)
The article credits Jerry Brown with convincing Win Star to make this purchase. See Vito, you and Jerry do have something in common...Upstart!
fedup Wrote:
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> T,Sev.If you\'re planning on \"taking him out\" can u
> please wait til after he posts the seminar.I\'m
> gonna be chugging down Red Bull all day coming off
> a 24hr shift at work,and like an 8yr old on xmas
> eve anticipating his gifts,I won\'t be able to
> sleep until I read the big guys comments on one
> heck of an interesting oaks-derby.....If you wanna
> take him out after,feel free,but I have to warn
> you,while reading what I think was the Barry
> Irwin-thorograph marriage article a few weeks back
> my wife glanced at the computer,saw TGJB\'S mug,and
> said \"I wouldn\'t wanna run into that guy in a dark
> alley\".
Merely a figure of speech is all that was. Really, Italians got nothin to do with it.
TJGB is not high on Materiality in regard to the Pletcher Last Derby Prep Top, especially at Gulfstream. Its all relative.
I was disappointed no one commented upon the exercise rider. It was odd.
Jerry wasn\'t all a face for radio back in the Thorograph on TV days, but the years can\'t be kind to everyone. One day you\'re \"the kid\" and down the road a ways they\'re comparing you to James Gandolfino.
Sheesh, that\'s worse.
He also had neck sweat in the Florida Derby.
Contrary to what\'s been said about him, I like his training and I like the hole. I\'d like to tell you about \"the feeling\", but that\'s a family secret.