Post-draw with my betting plays will be posted later this week but this is what I\'m thinking right now.
Total Tosses - Won\'t be anywhere on any of my tickets.
Itsaknockout
War Story
Stanford
Mr. Z
Ocho Ocho Ocho
Likely Tosses - If they draw poorly they are out, but with perfect trips might sneak into that 4th hole of the Super.
Keen Ice - Way, Way too slow coming in but might have the second best looking pattern of any horse in the race. Feels like he\'s about to move forward 3-4 points, but that still means he needs a 1w1w and a clear path to open up to have a chance of hitting the board. Looks a lot like Commanding Curve but the field is just so much tougher this year.
International Star - Another with a very nice looking pattern that would have played well in a different year, but at best he moves forward 3, and again that might not be enough.
Mubtaahij - Ditto above, but maybe even less likely to move forward more than 1.
Far Right - Closing style gives this one a little better chance to snatch a piece of the super if the pace goes bonkers, but a massive move forward to contend is unlikely.
El Kabeir - 4 months since his top is not a good sign, maybe he pairs up but that\'s not enough.
Tencendur - Has done a ton of developing but it\'s extremely unlikely there\'s any lemon left in this juice. A backward move is most likely, but a pair isn\'t totally impossible, but again, it\'s probably not enough to do anything more than fill out the Super. Pattern is similar to Midnight Interlude\'s fast 3yo rise.
Note: Depending on how these horses draw and how they look leading up to the race, it\'s possible I could end up moving 1 or 2 of them into the bottom of my tickets.
Probable Light Uses
Bolo - Hasn\'t done anything wrong but as other point out, he\'s probably a turf horse. But what we do know is that turf pedigree plays very well on the Churchill Downs dirt surface. Barbaro, Big Brown, Animal Kingdom are among the winners who ran huge here, but a few surprise horses who have hit the board were better bred for turf such as Golden Soul (2013), Dullahan (2012), and Paddy O\'Prado (2010). Very solid two year old top, wasted no time getting back to it this year and paired it up in the SA. This one just feels like it could hit the board to me.
Dortmund - His best really isn\'t good enough, his pattern is nothing special, and Baffert is handling him with kid gloves! Why are people tripping themselves over this horse? He needs a fresh top to win and at 4-1 that\'s pretty insane. I\'ll use him underneath, but I\'d need at least 20-1 to even be really interested in a horse with his pattern. If he draws way inside I may not even bother using him.
Carpe Diem - After bouncing from his 2 year old top, it took him 4 months to get back to the races. That indicates fragility to me. Recent spacing and long term pattern says odds of a new top here seem very small. Mentioned in the other thread that he reminds me of Any Given Saturday. Could be a very good horse later this summer with some rest, but not here.
Danzig Moon - Kind of interesting pattern. If you cross-out that Tampa Bay Derby race, he looks very similar to Animal Kingdom coming on and would be a strong contender. Not sure what to make of this. He hasn\'t done so much development (5 points from an 2yo October top) that he couldn\'t squeeze out a 2-3 more. He\'s going to be 50-1 so I\'ll definitely be using him somewhere and depending on how he\'s looking the rest of the week, maybe in a higher tier.
That leaves 5 horses that will make up a good deal of my tickets and here\'s how I see them from #5 to #1.
#5 American Pharoah - He\'s pretty impressive and has a figure and pattern worthy of respect, so he\'s definitely a must use somewhere. His one knock, and it\'s no minor one, is that he\'s had pretty clear sailing with dawdling paces in his prep races. I don\'t think he\'s ever gotten banged or had dirt kicked in his face, so at 5/2, that makes it a little nerve wrecking to put a large percentage of my eggs in his basket.
#4 Frosted - Impossible to leave off as he is one of the horses with the fastest figs in the race, although of the three, his pattern is the least appealing to me. Looks like a good chance to retreat of that Wood effort, but again, you should never leave the fastest horses off your ticket. Especially when you may get 15-1 on him.
#3 Materiality - The reports of his poor condition have me a little worried and his position on the board could change rapidly this week, but it\'s tough to not like one of the fastest horses in the race who has made 3 strong races. Wish he hadn\'t run those 2 races in 3-weeks, but maybe 6 weeks rest here is good enough to get him to pair, which could win. And of course, a good price.
#1b Firing Line - A couple points slow but easily, the best pattern in the race for a sharp new top. The Sunland Derby race could probably have been a half-point better if he was challenged and the spacing is superb for another move forward. This one is about to fire a negative number that puts him into contention. Love the way Callaghan is handling this horse and you have to love having Stevens\' experience in this race.
#1a Upstart - The only horse in the race to run the fastest figure twice, and you might get 20-1. He will have to look sickly on the track this week or draw the 1 post to really push me off him, but I can\'t find a ton to dislike about him right now. Rates gorgeously and has the type of push-button tactical speed that\'s needed in the Derby. He wavered in the Fountain of Youth at the end, but anyone who was near that pace completely collapsed that day, and he showed some grit in the lane. Spacing between the FoY and Fla Derby, and two year old foundation gives him a better chance than Materiality to repeat that effort.
As of this moment, the vast majority of my action will be centered around Upstart and Firing Line. But again, all of these rankings can (and will) change over the course of the week as post positions, gallops, and demeanor are observed.
I'll throw in. If these odds are close (saw them today) and the Baffert horses get bad draws this could be a nice payday. Could use more info from folks down there (covel?). Maybe I keep it simple this year. Three "must use" in here for me and I'll have to figure out how to build around.
American Pharoah 5/2 – Hard to see him moving forward here and he would have to if the any of the three faster ones fire. If he's a freak at this price he can beat me in the top spot. I don't like the shoe story either. Problem is will he hang around for exotics if I throw him out? This is the price you take on a Smarty Jones where he's fastest going in. He isn't.
Dortmund 4/1 – Not among the fastest in here. Like American Pharoah he's had everything his own way. It also looks like he got to this level and stopped? The big boy has already shown you what he can do? Sire profile of Big Brown backs this view as they get to their level and stop. Backed off a little and bore out after that February race. I lean towards total toss at this price.
Carpe Diem 15/2 – Could be sitting on a new top as he's only moved up a bit from his 2yo top. Newer approach to Derby with two preps may pay off. Price is less than great given his numbers with these monsters.
Mubtaahij 10/1 – Slower going in but this is another one that could run a new top assuming he hasn't been hurt by issues with feed, travel, etc. However, this is a pretty short price given the knocks. More inclined to use under given his style.
Materiality 12/1 – According to Welsch he looks good. Knock is no 2yo racing but the trend in winners is less racing than they did back in the day. If pitchers make more money and get into the Hall of Fame piling up 6 inning "quality starts" maybe it's going to be the same for horses? Can't see why he can't pair up and win. At this price he is a must use.
Firing Line 16/1 - If you like Dortmund this guy is just as fast and a much bigger price, but I don't like Dortmund and you can't bet them all. Usable underneath at this price but if he runs a new top and wins I'll have to let him beat me.
Frosted 16/1 – Can pair and win. I liked the look of his race in the Wood. Must use at the price.
International Star 18/1 – Can see using him under, might have another forward move in him and he doesn't give up.
Upstart 20/1 – Has he recovered from his sickness? Pair up can win. Must use at the price if the object is to bet on the fastest horses as there's nothing wrong with the pattern either.
Bolo 40/1 – Interesting to me as a use underneath at this price.
Looks good. Not sure if either Keen Ice or War Story (or both) will improve the 3-4 points you mention that could get them underneath. Wouldnt shock me as horses coming out of FG/OP can and have done that before.
Now for the win hole: Assuming he draws mid or outside AND assuming an ok break I see Firing Line being fresh enough to go early and grab the lead. So if the Bafferts take back and Mr. Z is too sour to go with him early and Stanford rates.......you have a potential move up colt off of 2 solid figures with one of the best pace riders in history on the front in a solid but controlled pace.
Good Luck,
Joe B
jbelfior Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
> Now for the win hole: Assuming he draws mid or
> outside AND assuming an ok break I see Firing Line
> being fresh enough to go early and grab the lead.
> So if the Bafferts take back and Mr. Z is too sour
> to go with him early and Stanford rates.......you
> have a potential move up colt off of 2 solid
> figures with one of the best pace riders in
> history on the front in a solid but controlled
> pace.
>
> Good Luck,
> Joe B
Joe, IF my aunt had balls she\'d be my uncle..... ;-) Of all the pace horses I like FL best to stick around because of Stevens but suspect his breeding will cath up to him outside of Sun 9f. Good luck either way and don\'t take the comment personally; I just like the phrase and the opportunity presented itself.
Patrick
No worries. There\'s a lot of ifs in there but I can see him on an uncontested lead which makes any horse of his quality and numbers dangerous.
Pedigree bothers me as well but I\'m thinking his backers get double digit odds to find out if he can outrun it.
Good Luck,
Joe B