Originally, I couldn\'t get away from this horse fast enough after his Blue Grass effort was labeled slow by the Beyer bean counters.
After several days of studying Thoro Graph and watching all of his previous races, I\'m trying to resist the temptation to jump back aboard. Seriously, has TAP ever had a contender look this ready to make a forward move, ever? Horse pairs up his 2 year old top with an easy victory in Tampa. Then, pairs again with an easy victory in the BlueGrass.
He\'s got Elliot Walden in his corner, the trainer that gave us flying finishes by Menifee and Victory Gallop. Johnny V selected him over the prodigy- Materiality. Pedigree is sufficient. 2 good works since the last prep.
Looks to me like his campaign has been manufactured to produce a new top on Derby day.
Honestly, I prefer Materiality\'s pattern.
Carpe Diem\'s long-term soundness does not look good to me. I\'d rather have seen him here without running in the Bluegrass. Looks like a horse that needs rest/spacing to run his best.
Carpe Diem follows same pattern as Super Saver for Pletcher/Walden, 2 preps to the derby. Strong possibility CD is getting there as plannned. Kinda light Beyers a concern esp Bluegrass day which was very kind to the outer paths all day, and where CD was.
CD a grinder/cruiser who should relish the distance.
Super Saver\'s pattern was much more healthier than Carpe Diem\'s. I remember, I was one of only a couple people on this board who had SS, and nobody was more in love with him then me.
The difference is SS never went backwards and was healthy enough to run a 4th race at 2. It may seem like a minor subtlety, but based on my experience I believe they are significantly different patterns.
Only person on this board who had Super Saver? Sek, he was the seminar pick. As I recall almost everyone on this board liked SS. In fact, aside from Jimbo and Miff I was thinking I was maybe the only person on this board who didn\'t like Super Saver.
I did NOT dislike Super Saver, despised him!
Yeah I take that back mjellish. Others liked him, Michael D was pretty high on him too. But I remember getting a lot of grief for how much I loved him, but that was probably more for my \"don\'t hold back\" posting style than anything.
Nobody else got this post: https://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,59164,59164#msg-59164
Quote from: Sekrah, you have the floor
Here\'s a jimbo classic from that Derby:
QuoteSekrah,
I just wish I could book your bets on Super Saver.
This horse has NEVER passed any horse in any race. Do you expect a \"wire to wire\" win now? No, you expect Borel to suddenly become \"magical\" and this horse will now face the toughest pace he will face at the longest distance and he will rate off of it and power home. Please....
He is coming out of the two preps that I believe are near the bottom of the list of preps as far as quality goes this year. I already mentioned that I think it is a HUGE minus that I couldn\'t get by a staggering Line of David, but he also spit the bit in a HORRIBLE Tampa Bay derby where he set his own pace and got passed by two horses that have both come back to run terrible since. So, his \"big race\" was his win over William\'s Kitten?
Forget it. THis horse has maybe a 2% chance to win, at best.
1.Forever Unb
2.Shook Up
3.Inc Betty
4.Eskformoney
5.Condo Comm
6.Angela Ren
7.Lovely Marie
8.Im Chatterbox
9.Monsonchar
10.Ocean Wave
11.Sarah Sis
12.Stellar Wind
13.Birdwire
14.Puca
You count \"can\'t pass a horse\" as sheet theory?
OHHH Boy,
Must be writing the seminar, he\'s getting grumpy!
Nope. I\'m in a great mood. Mets in first, Nets win 2 playoff games (not that they\'re going anywhere, but neither are the Hawks), Seminar stuff mostly done, involved with a Derby contender. Good week.
Older daughter went to school with Deron\'s daughter, and favorite Met is Daniel Murphy. She had a good night.
Depends what kind of girl you like.
Any guess on Oaks chalk?
Mmm, that Maria is looking so Lovely in that 7-hole.
Sek,
Wary of ground loaded figs from 4/4 at Kee, track profile was heavily tilted to wide paths there.Same with Carpe Diem
Mike
On Materiality: When was the last time a Pletcher trained horse ran that fast in his last Derby prep & did anything in the Derby?
Impressive stuff. Let me be the second to congratulate you!
Line is Steller Wind at 7-2. Don\'t know why JB thinks this is bad betting race.
Not what I said, especially not now.
And by the way, by good betting race I mean there\'s an advantage in betting it, that the public opinion and mine are not the same. I do NOT mean a wide open race, which is what it is often used to mean, for some reason I don\'t understand.
miff Wrote:
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> Carpe Diem follows same pattern as Super Saver
Was looking for a Pletcher comp for Carpe Diem, and it\'s not perfect, but I think a decent one is Any Given Saturday back in 2007. Big 2yo race, ran a new top 4 months later, paired it up on 3 weeks rest and came into the Derby on 4 weeks rest. He could pair up here and run respectable, but I think the chances of him running a fresh top with the poor spacing are low, and he needs a 2 pt top with a decent trip to win.
AGS got 2 months rest after the Derby and after winning the Dwyer would end up crushing Curlin in the Haskell. This is where I see Carpe Diem.
https://www.thorograph.com/archive/files/kd2007.pdf - AGS Finished 8th.
Looks like Elliott Walden has narrowed his handicapping down to six. Carpe Diem\'s made the cut.
Walden Q&A (https://www.thoroughbredracing.com/articles/walden-qa-winstar-ceo-talks-ky-derby-scouting-elite-stallions) article
The question we should be asking is: Has Pletcher ever trained a Derby runner that is as mentally fragile as this one?
sekrah Wrote:
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> Yeah I take that back mjellish. Others liked him,
> Michael D was pretty high on him too. But I
> remember getting a lot of grief for how much I
> loved him, but that was probably more for my
> \"don\'t hold back\" posting style than anything.
>
> Nobody else got this post:
> https://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,59164
> ,59164#msg-59164
>
Forget what you posted, but to get this response from me (of all people), you must have been very high on him.
The discussion over the past few weeks has been tremendous. As previously mentioned, this is a big reason favorites have done much better recently than in the past. Plenty of information out there.
JB,
Your community is second to none. Looking forward to the seminar.
sekrah Wrote:
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> Mmm, that Maria is looking so Lovely in that
> 7-hole.
Nice call Sek.
And JB, outstanding job with the call on Shook Up. Nice exacta and tri with the horses that were fastest plus the nice longshot you were all over.
I did well, but I\'m trying to deal with not having played the high 5. Which is mostly what I did last year.
Wasn\'t going to use Shook Up at all til I seen the analysis. Did include lightly because of it so ty JB.. Nice win ticket but it would have been kind of bittersweet if I whiffed on the exotics.. Nice day with TGs.. I hope tomorrow is even nicer.
Congrats on your long shot from the seminar. Good luck tomorrow!
I\'m no pro but only used her to run 1-2 as a key in all my bets.
First,third and 4th horses not real difficult to use in exactas,tri\'s and supers if you play all those exotics.
Wish the Derby were this straight forward.
Nice call their..
Nice call on the 2 in the Oaks great seminar