...and it\'s just that. Not based on any information whatsoever.
If you heard one horse was withdrawn because of a soundness problem (not because it didn\'t train well or any other reason) between now and raceday, who would it most likely be? And should the same thinking factor into handicapping the race?
The favorite . . . . (foot/horse, etc.).
Race day meds can get them through a lot.
JB,
I would guess that like 15 derby hores have some issue, minor and upwards,requiring maintenance. Since they all had their final work,think galloping this week should give some mini hint of soundness.If they gallop sound, you gotta think they\'re ok going in. Any horse can \"blow a tire\" once the gate opens.
So fyi, and think its meaningless but, AP wears a plate with what looks like an egg bar and had a suspensory.Asked someone who sees him regularly if there were signs that he was pinfired, could not tell.
Dortmund is stiff on occasion in the am and rerportedly has feet issues.
Firing Line was off a little in Feb/Mar was shock waved and who knows about the rest?
Mike
I think the obvious answers for me are:
1) American Pharoah with the bar shoe (reminds me of the Unbridled\'s Song circus and his training in the bar shoe. Don\'t know if the bar shoe was the problem or the incredibly hot pace that did him in)
2) Materiality- because that\'s what these Pletcher horses do.
My guess is that one or both of these will be retired to stud in the next 5 weeks.
Miff never heard about the Dortmund and feet issues..As of now he is my top pick.
JB for your question.
Materiality, Pletcher always seems to loose one due to soundness,
As far as handicapping I have enough issues handicapping this race based on fact,never mind hypothetical..
Good Luck
Materiality is the one. And it does figure into my handicapping. Too much too soon, and all that.
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> ...and it\'s just that. Not based on any
> information whatsoever.
>
> If you heard one horse was withdrawn because of a
> soundness problem (not because it didn\'t train
> well or any other reason) between now and raceday,
> who would it most likely be? And should the same
> thinking factor into handicapping the race?
My guess is that I would look at horses that ran big negative figs early as such grueling efforts may be able to be looked upon as the origin of the soundness issues. I still have no idea who you may be talking about and who it is. However, from the handicapping standpoint, I am looking at these horses in tiers. I am assuming that some of the ones in the tier will fire their best shot and some will flop. So, I have one tier which has the 4 fastest horses in it....I am prepared if 2 fire a good shot and 2 are nowhere. I hate spreading so much, but I think it is the way you need to do it.
John,
Dortmund, as you know is a huge animal.If physicality decides this derby, Dortmund wins. A drawback of very large horses is body soreness out of races and jarring from heavy body powering thru the cushion.Issues of stiffness and sore feet after a race are almost meaningless when a horse is treated and shows recovery from it within days.
You will never almost never see Baffy final work a horse like Dortmund in 1.13+ as he did on Sat.Baffy had a plan there,Dortmund could have easily worked much faster.
Mike
I am NOT talking about a specific horse, and have no inside info. I\'m making a point about factoring percentages into handicapping.
On the distaff side, Baffert said this morning that both of his (Luminance and Mabellene) are no lock to be run, said he might not enter either in fact. Both worked today, the latter apparently outworked by Lord Nelson.
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I am NOT talking about a specific horse, and have
> no inside info. I\'m making a point about factoring
> percentages into handicapping.
Okay, well I got into that in the second half of my answer -- I have my horses separated into tiers -- I am ready for half of each tier to not fire and half to fire. It requires a bunch of spreading, but it seems like you need to do that....relying too much on one horse just seems to scary....especially when there are such possible prices to be had....
About to start recording the Oaks part of the seminar, that\'s a great big pain in the butt.
Based on the sheets, it didn\'t appear to me that the Baffert runners were in the top tier for the Oaks???
You must be getting old, Oaks a piece of cake compared to derby.
Here\'s the bloodhorse article with BB\'s quotes, for what it\'s worth.
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/91580/baffert-may-not-enter-filly-in-kentucky-oaks
6 of the 20 head have either bore in or bore out in at least 1 of their last 2 races.
Thank you for the education
Still have to write and record each horse.
Derby is a waaaaayyyyy better betting race.
It may ask miff who is your oaks pick?
Absolutely love Lovely Maria\'s line. Her and Birdatthewire are the keys I think.
Dislike I\'m A Chatterbox and Condo Commando.
Not educating anyone johnny, its in the sheets. If I had to guess I would say El Kabeir.
Mr. Z has been non-stop for almost a year, every time he pokes his nose out the top part of the stall door, Lukas tacks him up and runs him.
\"should the same thinking factor into handicapping the race?\"
No. Who cares who is most likely to be taken out with a soundness problem?
The real question concerns having a soundness problem and being left in.
Yes, yes, yes. You are exactly right Rich!!
Which is the point of the question. And why it has to be factored into handicapping.
A few years ago I knew of a Derby favorite who had a real serious problem, and the connections were thinking of running him almost up to entry time. A horse only gets one shot at the Derby, people don\'t always do the right thing.
Fast horses are only fast if they run their race.
TGJB,
I took a quick look at the last 5 Derbys and the 6 bearing in or out is about in line with most years.
Chrome and Bode each had a bo or bi line. Shackleford ran very well and he had 2 heading into the Derby.
The numbers, and I went up a dead end, were:
2014 7
2013 8
2012 4
2011 5
2010 7
Those numbers of starters either bore in or out during their 3 y.o. campaign.
In my opinion the problem is this: there have been a few horses, in recent years, that if you saw them in their stall or walking a day or two before the derby you would leave them entirely off your ticket, but they came through and hit the board. Do not underestimate how much race day meds help some of these get through whatever is bothering them. And I don\'t mean anything illegal. Strictly legal stuff. So I think you have to be very careful here unless they actually miss some training due to the issue(s).
I would say that if you already don\'t like the horse then maybe that helps you like them even less. But that\'s about it.
The BI comment wasn\'t mine and had nothing to do with the question. May or may not have anything to do with the answer.
Empire Maker walked lamely the morning of the Derby.
The same medication is available for other races, but a far higher percentage run \"X\'s\" in the Derby than in other 3yo stake races. Almost half.
MJ,
I believe only lasix is race day for the derby.Many permitted drugs are 72 hours out and have little punch 3 days later.Could be that anti-inflammatory/bute unstacked, is permitted 24 hours out.So many different rules at the different venues make it hard to remember.
Ice tubs and some old fashioned cold water hosing/bandages used.
Mike
You are missing the point. I know some of them hold together.
But other races aren\'t the KY Derby. There\'s only one of them, so if they think the horse can get through they are going to run him. Think about the travel plans for the owners and their group, etc., that would have to be canceled.
In just your ordinary claiming, maiden, alw race or whatever, if the horse has an issue they can wait till next week or next month or whatever if they want to. They can also leave the horse entered and scratch out if need be. But you aren\'t scratching out of the KY Derby unless you absolutely have to. Don\'t see many of them scratch when it rains compared to what happens in other \"every day\" races.
And to Miff\'s point, Empire Maker missed significant training leading up to the KY Derby and his issue was well documented. He still took 3rd.
I Want Revenge was one that just couldn\'t go. Eskendereya, Uncle Mo, Buddha, some others.
Heck anyone who saw Barbaro at CD and again in Maryland knew they had a problem. Pressure of all kinds kept him in the race.
Archarcharch, was allegedly, standing on 3 legs the morning of his Derby. That did not end well.
You are making my point. I don\'t know why this is difficult.
People run horses here that they wouldn\'t otherwise. That needs to be taken into account in handicapping.
And I\'m not talking about things like Empire Maker being off or horses missing a work, though obviously those things have their place. But there are sound patterns (International Star, for example), unsound ones, and ambiguous ones.
If a horse has a 15% chance of going wrong in the race it doesn\'t change things that much if you\'re getting 25-1. It matters a hell of a lot if you\'re taking one of the favorites.
Well good. Then glad we agree.
Supposedly a great work from LM as well. Bird might not win, but I can\'t see leaving out of the tri.
Without having the Derby Thoro in front of me I answer your questions this way:
It would most likely be a horse that didn\'t react the way I thought they should have. My example would be a horse runs a big top, I expect them to react but instead they improve.
Part two of your question:
I hope they react at an even lower price making a more valuable betting opportunity for myself.
\"who is your oaks pick?\"
Leaning to Stellar Wind though Sadler harmless out of Cali. If Luminance out, or not, Rudy sending CC to try wire, no real speed in here. Think she may get back to her best which is too fast for these,been babied for this. Bird horse saver. Tossing the Cowboy\'s duo.
Let me put it this way.
I bet with both hands against Barbaro in the Preakness, Big Brown in the Belmont, and Shared Belief last week. I stated publicly before the race that I feared for the well being of Go For Wand and Eight Belles (check out that Derby seminar, both the comments on her and in the summary at the end). There have been others too-- I Want Revenge, etc. The only time I\'ve been wrong about this that I recall was Rachel, I was terrified when she ran in the Preakness.
All of these were based on handicapping and sheets theory (Miff\'s Kool-Aid). There\'s nothing that extreme this year. But it\'s all a matter of percentages.
By the way, did you see the Rag sheet on CC??? Holy crap.
Yes, I\'ve told you many times, if you dont lose ground over there it\'s very hard to get a good figure.
Bolo: injured in January, delayed start until March, owners overzealous and overriding the trainer. Odds are right but won\'t be on a ticket of mine and may not even make it to the race.
Materiality: Late start to career, fast Pletcher runner, owner\'s living out a dream/fantasy. Odds may be decent though. Has look of being rushed to Derby. Islamorada = Timely Writer imo.
Patrick
There\'s a much better parallel, and you don\'t have to go back that far. You won\'t find him in the Derby archives, however.
Which is not to say this one won\'t be entered, or will necessarily bounce if he is.
Another Pletcher undefeated Florida Derby winner, after only 3 starts, didn\'t run at two...
Wrongly Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Heck anyone who saw Barbaro at CD and again in
> Maryland knew they had a problem. Pressure of all
> kinds kept him in the race.
I will go to my grave believing that Prado KNEW something was wrong before he even entered the gate, and didn\'t have the guts to speak up because of the pressure to race. Several times he looked back at his right hind during the post parade.
Sekrah--That\'s pure garbage. I personally know Edgar Prado and he told me afterwards he was as shocked as anyone that happened.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Constitution
Where was the track vet after the horse broke though the gate?
Get a copy of the full broadcast and watch it, and then come back and tell me that he didn\'t know. I don\'t care how well you know Edgar Prado or what he told you. If he told you that, I\'m calling him a liar right now.
He absolutely knew. He repeatedly crooked his head back at the right hind and had a concerned look on his face.
Next time you see him, tell him yourself. Let us know how that goes.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
What\'s he going to do, bite my ankles?
Greatest. Seminar. Tease. EVER.
My hope is that AmPhar draws a far outside post and Nopayat decides to scratch El
Kabeer and Mr. Z to move the big guy inside. Who is going to be the one to tell D.
Wayne Lukas he won\'t be running a horse in the Derby? Can you say \"text message\"?
LOL
Still laughing at that retort.
Those were my top 2 as well good luck to you
\"NOPAYAT\" -- I love this. Laughed out loud and I am stealing this. You never disappoint Richie. Michael
Joe
I saw that horse before the Derby, he stood still taking in everything around him. Completely different horse in Maryland, couldn\'t sit still very agitated. The horse wasn\'t right and all those connected knew it.
Got to say some of the comments are blowing me away. Not in a negative way just stuff I would never think of..
How bout Dortmund in post 20, American Pharaoh in post 19. Gates open Dortmund veers in uncontrollably to his left, wiping out AP, and causing the chances of both to be hopelessly lost. Stewarts are silent, result stands. Then what?
Mike Smith orders two copies of the DVD. One for him, one for Hollendorfer.
Uncle Mo...
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Which is the point of the question. And why it has
> to be factored into handicapping.
>
> A few years ago I knew of a Derby favorite who had
> a real serious problem, and the connections were
> thinking of running him almost up to entry time. A
> horse only gets one shot at the Derby, people
> don\'t always do the right thing.
>
> Fast horses are only fast if they run their race.
Reminds me of Grindstone in 1996 (Lukas). We heard all day he would scratch and of course never did. Won and was retired 5 days after the win (bone chips).
TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The same medication is available for other races,
> but a far higher percentage run \"X\'s\" in the Derby
> than in other 3yo stake races. Almost half.
Probably many reasons for that,not the least, they run more not right horses, who they\'d scratch in any other race.
As far as Xs go, they are also running farther than most will again - farther than some probably should - even more so given the inevitable ground loss. When a one-turn miler goes 1 and 1/4, we should expect an X.
No question the ten furlongs causes colts problems but to me the extreme weight carried is much more of an issue. Trainers must squeeze the lemon just to get their horses here and if their not over the top going in many will be by the eighth pole.
bbb
My point.
I would also say materiality. And yes this does play into my handicapping.
Ok Miff. You make a good point. But when I say race day meds I mean meds given to help a horse on race day. Meaning meds they don\'t give every day or whatever. For example, here\'s the official med records for the last triple crown race. Belmont stakes run on 6/7/14:
http://www.gaming.ny.gov/pdf/06.05.14.BelmontStakesDayBelmontStakes.pdf
Go find a vet and ask them what this would do for a horse that raced on 6/7/14 verses how they might feel before getting them. Then add your cold tub stuff, etc., and squeeze...
Not exactly sure what horse TGJB is referring to, but I\'m not near prepared to discount Materiality just yet.
The horse I\'m seeing holes in is the likely favorite. He\'s beaten a bunch of empty cans and he\'s going to get tested here for the very first time and that test is gonna be a dang good one. His stable mate may even sink the dagger in!
Hey Richie......waasssssssss up
Other than Materiality beating Upstart and Dortmund beating Firing Line, who have any of them beat? The favorites basically won every Derby prep.
This theme arises in every Derby, \"Who have they beat\"?
If you go by pure Figures they say it doesn\'t matter right?
I think Frosted is quite a bit of horse. As is Upstart. As is Sanford and Materiality.
I really don\'t think Adrian Peterson has beaten a playoff caliber team. A little misfortune and the balloons could be very big. He really has had it all his own way. My strategy will be to beat him out of as much as I can. The draw will determine the ratios.
jp702006 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Other than Materiality beating Upstart and
> Dortmund beating Firing Line, who have any of them
> beat? The favorites basically won every Derby
> prep.
Not that I intend to bet the horse but Mr. Z has faced EVERYONE. Obviously he\'s lost to a handful but he dances with anyone on the floor. From a who\'s beaten who perspective, this guy clearly has beaten the best and no shame losing to Dort. AP and CD. I\'d probably have to insert him in the 4 hole (and maybe 3rd) if 30/1 or higher.
Good luck
Patrick