Has anyone done any research on the top 4 finishers historical figs and what the range might be?
Before I go through the exercise, thought I\'d ask if anyone has already drawn it up.
For example, if the winner is usually a neg 2 or better, is there any consisten range for the next 3 spots? Is anything > 3 pretty much out of the $$$?
I did that before last year\'s Derby (1998-2013), just added in the 2014 figs.
1st: -0.04 avg; 2.25 Std dev
2nd: 1.28 avg; 1.30 Std dev
3rd: 2.56 avg; 1.47 Std dev
4th: 2.76 avg; 1.63 Std dev
Only 3 winners have run higher than a 1.5
Only 3 2nd place runners have run higher than a 2.5
Only 3 3rd place runners have run higher than a 2.5
8 4th place finishers have run higher than a 2.5; 6 of them ran higher than a 3
Hope this helps.
Not exactly what you are looking for but going thru 18 years of data:
7 of Derby winners ran a new top- average improvement was 3.25 pts
10 of winners paired
Smarty the only Derby winner to run an off race.
9 of 2nd finishers ran a new top-ave improvement was 2.75 pts
8 paired
Bode the only 2nd finisher to run an off race.
0 show horses ran a new top-which seems odd.
12 paired
5 off
Afleet Alex the only X to get in the tri or super
2 ran new tops to get in the bottom super
10 paired
7 0ff
Dead heat for 4th in 2006 which illustrates the importance of ground loss in this race.
Jazil saved all the ground running a 3.75
Bro Derek maybe the widest trip ever in a Derby a -0.5
Don\'t know what year they put in the point system but pretty sure that affected the percentage of tops-- pushed harder earlier to qualify, less tops in the Derby. Should have got into that in the seminar, too late now. If I make Paul change anything he\'ll quit.
Think the point system has been in just the last 2 years. Favorites won both years.
This will be the third year of the point system. Therefore, only 2 years of data to go on. It would be hard to make any generalizations off 2 years.
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/news/2012/06/14/derby-field-be-set-new-point-system-not-graded-earnings
boston Wrote:
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> This will be the third year of the point system.
> Therefore, only 2 years of data to go on. It
> would be hard to make any generalizations off 2
> years.
>
> http://www.kentuckyderby.com/news/2012/06/14/derby
> -field-be-set-new-point-system-not-graded-earnings
I wouldn\'t even dare making a generalization off of 10 years of data.
I mis-spoke. Not point system, qualifying system, whether earnings or points. Don\'t know what year that started. Both caused horses to be pushed harder earlier.
The article stated graded stakes earnings began in 1986.