I see Gary Young commented on AP\'s workout today, and said \"He stays in the air longer than any horse and you get the feeling that there's not one gear left, but he may have two, three or four gears."
I\'m not used to looking at workout videos, but he may be right.
Scary good. Secretariat like imo. Watch it a .25 speed for a thrill.
Not expressing a handicapping opinion here, just saying how good AP looks working.
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/workouts
Have stated the reasons I would not include AP in my top two on this board last week and am not going to flip flop and change my opinion cause most the time in horse racing your first impressions seem to be more true then what you let yourself be talked into based on a number of things including hype...
With all that said I have to admit that was one hell of a work and the last time I have seen a pre-derby work like that at \"The Downs\" was Smarty Jones with Willie Martinez as the workout rider.
Sticking firm with Frosted, Upstart, Materiality as my top 3 win candidates and going to use Dortmund and Carpe Diem on a few ( about 1/4 of my tickets ) as well on the win end.
Agreed. It\'s already been well established that AP is an amazing horse with no horses in his way.
There is a very good reason why there are no horses in his way!! bbb
Well we know he can skip away from Far Right and Mr. Z and beat them by 10 lengths. We\'ll see how he runs next to horses that aren\'t going to be 50-1 longshots.
We also know that as a 2yo in the Frontrunner, a Grade 1 stakes, he beat Calculator, who won the Sham and Texas Red who trounced everyone in the Breeder\'s Cup including Carpe Diem, Upstart,and Mr Z. Carpe Diem & Upstart won\'t be 50-1. Now I know a lot of numbers guys here don\'t believe in judging class by going a line through a line but once Texas Red trounced everyone in the BCJ, I thought Pharoah had to be something special, especially when the east coast horses went home after Texas Red trounced them and started beating everything up who they raced against.
Again, he didn\'t have a horse in front of him in either of those two races. 4 of his 5 career races, the pace has come in under par for that class/distance. To have no horses in front of him, he\'s likely going to need to draw far-outside. If he draws far-outside, he\'s going to be giving up ground to a handful of horses who have already run faster than him.
At 2-1, 5/2 in 20-horse field, I see absolutely no reason to be interested in this animal. If everything breaks for him and he pulls it off, good for his connections and the people who wagered on him. It still doesn\'t mean it was a smart wager.
It seems like every year the favorite is chewing up Churchill Downs like a beast in training and the world trips over themselves in awe. Then come Derby day the same things happen that happen every Derby day: Unpredictable Chaos.
Derby is the one time a year you can give yourself a real opportunity to make a once in a lifetime score. Why waste that opportunity with what is ALWAYS the biggest underlay on the board? American Pharaoh will not be the first \"Special\" horse since Secretariat to lose in the Derby.
I just watched AP, Dort, and Bayern works multiple times. While Dort and Bayern are doing it easy AP is running nearly as fast as he can. Yes it is true that he was not asked by the rider, but that does not mean he is doing easy as most experts have stated. My guess is that this is not an intelligent horse. Take this to the bank - AP left his race on the track. I will happy be betting against him.
Boston is silly and ignorant but he has guts and guts is enough.
I like winning wagers no matter what they pay.
On any other race in the year, I would agree with you..
I\'d rather lose the Derby going down swinging for a home run, then not even give myself a shot at a life-changing score.
There are a million other races every year to grind out winning tickets, if that\'s what drives you. I\'ll never pass up the opportunity at the sweetest \"Overlay Lottery\" of all time. If taking a 20% shot (and that\'s being generous) that\'s paying 2-1 makes you tick, then go for it. It\'s your money, not mine.
Great points sekrah the 3rd point Orb and Chrome followed thru,but I get your drift it seems to happen more often than not..
Personnally AP is not my A horse I have him in the B catagory moslty based on the same points you made..
Good Luck
I don\'t see why one can\'t have it both ways if one gets creative.
I would not call the last few KY Derby races chaotic or unpredictable with regards to how the favorite ran.
2014 Favorite won
2013 Favorite won
2012 Favorite took 2nd
2011 Dialed in was a terrible favorite and everyone on this board knew that
2010 Lucky got the rail and ran out, but Super Saver won as second choice 2009 was unexpected
2008 Favorite won
2007 Favorite won
That\'s a 50% win rate for the favorite over the last 8 years in this race.
And that\'s an awful small sample mjellish.
Before Fusaichi Pegasus won in 2000, a favorite hadn\'t won in 20 years since Spectacular Bid. They\'ve had a decent run as of late, but it still doesn\'t make sense to key in on them when you look at the larger sample. From 1980 to 1994, only 3 of them even hit the board.
Nobody isn\'t saying a favorite can\'t win. It just doesn\'t make sense to key on one to me when there\'s so many more other lucrative options out there with just as much a chance to win.
I\'m not saying you\'re wrong not to key on AP Sek. But throwing him out just cause he\'s the favorite and you expect the race to be chaotic is not a valid reason IMO.
You have to remember that this is the information age now. Hell, you can go online and watch the workout videos. You have people reporting all over the place and you can just sit at your computer and click away. That was not the case 10 years ago. So what happened in the 80\'s, 90\'s and early 2000\'s is now irrelevant in my opinion. The public is now getting better at betting this race.
I would also say that the new points system tends to keep the pure sprinting types out of this race as they don\'t give points for sprints. It used to be that horses who won graded stakes in sprints could get in, but that is not the case anymore.
So the early pace dynamic of the KY Derby is likely to be different moving forward than it used to be.
SO now with no horses with sprint type speed most jocks don\'t want to compromise their horses chances early, so the early splits are somewhat muted by unwillingness to go fast early.
joemama Wrote:
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> SO now with no horses with sprint type speed most
> jocks don\'t want to compromise their horses
> chances early, so the early splits are somewhat
> muted by unwillingness to go fast early.
Chances for a Charismatic-like first-run-by-the-stands \"blob\" effect are tangible. Hope it doesn\'t happen that way. Danger lurks.