For what it\'s worth, that\'s as good of a work as I\'ve ever seem from a horse.
He went 58 and change in a common gallop by himself.
Jim,
A small caution. AP always works brilliantly prompting the sharpest clockers in Cali to rave about him. Just saying he exhibits freaky tendencies in the am all the time.
Mike
Mike,
Many will feel they are getting 3/1 or 5/2 on the 2nd coming of Seattle Slew who was 1/2 in his Derby?
Frank,
Gotta beat a tough field but I respect the guy in Cali who told me months ago this horse was freaky fast in the am.
Welsch wrote:
American Pharoah Dazzles in final Derby prep
They saved the best for last and it was surely worth the wait all week to finally see AMERICAN PHAROAH strut his stuff this morning, leaving little doubt he is the horse to beat in this year\'s Derby after a dazzling five furlong breeze, jockey Martin Garcia up, in 58.62, clipping off a steady series of sub :12 eighth mile splits along the way and doing so as easy as can be before galloping out six furlongs in a strong 1:12.01.
Of course but he\'s also been freaky in all of his races in the afternoon as well so the fact that he continues to be freaky in the morning is very relevant
Still don\'t know what will happen when he hits the 8th pole but I don\'t see any way this horse finishes out of the super and will play accordingly.
And I don\'t care if he draws the rail either. Victor will be able to place him wherever he wants no matter where he draws.
Baffert has 2 in his barn this year that would have laid over most TC fields the past 20 years.
AP with his amazing ease he glides over the track with, as visually impressive as any I\'ve seen and Dortmund with his massive ground eating stride are both one\'s most trainers hope for once in a lifetime!
This year who knows, too many variables, questions and other fast horses?
Jim,
Agree, it looks like he needs to get a bad trip/dynamics to be out of super.
Mike
My guy said his 6F Gallop out was in a l:11 and 2. So that\'s faster than Welsch is saying. It also means AP shaded 13 for another 1/8th at the end of that work after running 4 consecutive sub 12 1/8ths. That\'s a strong gallop out and would seem to indicate that he is feeling pretty good right now.
My guy also said you could hardly hear AP hit the ground as he went by compared to how the other workers sounded today. Track a little cuppy in his opinion.
I\'m starting to think this colt has a freaky, efficient stride that just doesn\'t have a lot of up and down to it. And he seems to just run and run without being asked in the morning and his races. Will be interesting to see if you can run much faster if when he is actually asked to. I don\'t see how. If he can he is truly a freak.
The only chink in his armor is he has never really hooked anything like he will on Sat. Can he take early pressure and stay 10f?
Mike you I and many others will be paying to find that out next week. I\'ve got to go elsewhere in this field at the price he will be.
Miff wrote: The only chink in his armor is he has never really hooked anything like he will on Sat. Can he take early pressure and stay 10f?
Also, the protective plate and Zayat\'s comments about a possible suspensory injury (although no Xray or ultrasound revealed such apparently)? Maybe he is more fragile than others.
That\'s why even though I expect him to win the Derby, I can\'t imagine him winning the Triple Crown. He\'s going to have to run a big negative number to win the Derby & it\'s going to take its toll. If not in the Preakness, then almost certainly in the Belmont. I think that will be true of any horse who wins the Derby. The good thing is, all he has to do is win this race for me to cash and he looks fine going into this race.
At those odds I am guessing 5-2 or 3-1 ill go in another direction.
Dortmund is much more battle tested. Dortmund resume answers all my questions.
AP was very babied went the easy rout through Arkansas who\'s prep races I have as the weakest of all regarding competition.
AP may be a freak but hopefully at 5-1 ill wheel Dortmund and play AP underneath.
Good Luck
P.S was not really spoke about on here but Dortmund did put in a very nice work at Santa Anita on Sat coming home in 22 and change..
I\'m locked I at 8/1 on Pharoah, so he can be bet down to anything & it won\'t hurt my odds. Frankly, at 8/1, I\'m happy with what I\'ve got & if I get beat, that\'s the game.
The Dortmund work is really up for debate. The math of him coming home in 22 doesn\'t add up. My 1st impression was that Dortmund has never worked that slow in his life, making me feel pretty negatively towards that work. Then I heard of the last quarter & had no idea what to make of it. Then when people started doing the math, the 22 was questionable since Bruno has him in 51+ and Baffert had him at 101 for 5f. I\'d love to see all the splits on that work so we\'d know for sure. Maybe the final clocking of 113.60 is wrong. Read the comment section of the BloodHorse article & see how the math of the work is up for debate.
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/91535/dortmund-runs-easy-in-final-derby-drill
Final quarter time is right. 22 and change. Baffert works them from the 1/16th poles not the 1/8th poles, and past the wire.
I see the gallop outs for AP at 6f,7f and a mile but nothing for Dortmund other than the last 1/4 and the recorded 6f work.
It was a good work from Dortmund, but raw times from SA are usually fast relative to other tracks. It\'s not that uncommon to see 6F works in times that are stakes race winning elsewhere.
Just read that Bloodhorse article and comments. Those people are clueless trying to do the math from a clocking that came from the wrong pole on someone else\'s watch and then combining it with another clocking from another watch using another pole, and then saying the clocking doesn\'t add up unless you have a sub 10 1/8th in there somewhere. It\'s like buying a box of macaroni and cheese but then reading the baking directions from a frozen pizza and asking yourself why it doesn\'t seem to make sense.
Mjellish,
Any word on the work of Tencendur yesteday you are willing to share? I\'m guessing that the bullet was in part due to track being in perfect shape early when he worked.
And how did he look compared to his work partner?
Any info out there appreciated.
Dortmund and Firing Line both worked well yesterday at Santa Anita, neither was asked to work fast.
All the major players worked well in Cali, Florida and KY.They will all gallop this week at CD and sometimes thats where some drop off or pick up a little.
TVG airing all works on Wed 4/29 at 6:00 pm est for anyone wanting to confuse themselves more than we already are.
My notes on him say faster early, slow late work, did not change leads till late, kept trying to lug in, finished 1 length clear of workmate and tired, not much on gallop out.
Jellish you seem to have a pretty good memory at least I know I do....I believe Point Given worked in 1;10 and change the SATURDAY before the Derby (and yes it was brutally fast pace in the Derby that year he got caught up in but so was Congaree) and promptly bounced off a New Top in the Santa Anita Derby. So now we have a GLOWING 3/4\'s on the Sunday!!
AP is coming in off a New Top 3 weeks out from the Derby. I have always like to bet against horses who come in in off a fast New Top and then turn around with a comeback bullet work. Its all almost just to obvious and everyone then says \"See it took nothing out of him\".
Pharaoh may be a Superstar and that\'s fine by me. And people need to stop it with this injury baloney, Bar shoe, etc. They all have some little quirk.
Dortmund work online at americasbestracing.net his stride reminds me of a front running Zenyatta just canters along and then just extends his stride. Can I get 5-1?
Is AP wearing a bar shoe?
Anybody who has frozen pizza deserves whatever they get.
AP looks ready to pop a negative 3.
Bottom of the pedigree and ability to rate well enough to win a 10f race are the issues. Positive view is that the pedigree, while questionable on bottom, is a bit stronger than it looks, and they all have the rating challenge. Negative view is that as the overwhelming favorite at 2-1 or 5-2, the bar is set high, and 2-1 is too low with those two question marks.
Drf:Privmanp
I caught up with jockey Martin Garcia a bit after AMERICAN PHAROAH\'S work this morning. This was his assessment: \"He\'s a good one. Superstar. I never asked him.\"
.....wonderful comment from the rider of Dortmund!
Michael-- not to scoop the seminar, but I seem to remember you raising some issues on this board a couple of years ago...
Shhhh....
Timeform US does point out gently that Dubai Bob\'s won ONE of the last 42 TC races . . .
Jerry,
AP has the two big #\'s early on at 2, and the POTNs get 5 points better from 2 to 3 (smallish sample size). And it looks like the colt is pretty happy running around that track right now. I\'m not an expert pattern guy, but it looks to me like he\'s ready to run a good one. If I try and beat him, it will be because of the distance & low price.
Michael-- I was referring to some Baffert patterns you pointed out a couple of years ago.
right, but with the numbers at 2 and the sire stats, AP doesn\'t look overly suspect to me, not pattern wise. with the physical issues, the works are extra important. I guess you could say he passed the test today.
From a picture difficult to see, AP appears to be wearing an egg bar shoe. Equibase file obviously doesn\'t have it or TG would show it. You would think info like this would not have to be guessed at.
Bottom line, he runs holes in the wind with the way Baffert has him set up shoes wise. Would disregard it.