Curious how people are looking at these two, Frosted and Upstart. Both were fast, very fast at 2.
Upstart debuts at 3 and breaks through his 2 yr old top with a big number, then runs an off race, then comes back and pairs a big number in the FL Derby. Now he\'s had 5 weeks since the number he\'s already reacted to.
Frosted, meanwhile, ran an off race in his 3 year old debut, backed up again in the FOY, but then broke through with a big number in the Wood. Now he comes in on 4 weeks.
Both have only improved roughly 2 pts from their 2 yr old top. And If either of them pairs they are right there. But aside from all the noise, antibiotics, surgery, etc. Strictly from their sheet, which one has the better pattern and why?
I think Upstart has the better pattern. Frosted reacted the 1st time he broke through in the Remsen, it took him 4.5 months and 3 races to reach (and actually surpass) his 2yo top. If he reacts again, he\'ll be a non factor in the Derby.
Right off the bat, Upstart is a faster horse. With the exception of his debut, which he won by over 5 lengths and the Breeder\'s Cup he\'s been running very fast. After hitting a 2yo top he reacted with an x in the Breeder\'s Cup. Off 2.5 months, he immediately came back with a new top (beating Frosted) reacted while finishing 1st in the FOY and immediately came back to his top next out. If the man who knows more about these numbers and reactions recommended his purchase and didn\'t think all those fast numbers put him on the eve of destruction, I have to go with Upstart.
Even if he reacts like the last time, Upstart\'s still capable of being a major player in the Derby. The unknown factor for this race is the infection & whether it takes anything off his game. If Frosted has the same reaction as last time he ran huge, he\'ll be lucky to be rounding back into form around the time they run the Travers.
Eliminating the noise I give the very slight edge to Upstart on pattern. Going from an off to a pair with an extra week, he seems more likely to pair again then Frosted going from an X to a Top of 2 points.
But I\'m still an amateur.
Putting back in the noise and perhaps the surgery corrected the cause of the X but that\'s speculation.
Of course they aren\'t racing 9F. Frosted seems a slightly better bet to get the extra furlong from pace analysis standpoint and the jockey upgrade for a great trainer doesn\'t hurt.
Heading into the Derby, when was the last time we had a horse run 3 straight negative numbers in his 3 year old season and remain 20/1 in the Morning Line.
frosted pairs good numbers at 2 then makes that 4 point move, you could have played for that bounce first time 3 yr, acclimating to GP, you would have wanted him to get back to the top 2nd out, he did not, not a good sign. However, he looked like he would at top of stretch in the FOY and we now know of the corected problem, and subsequent 2 pt move in wood. Looks good to me with only 2 pts of development from 2 yr old.
Upstart pairs very good numbers 2/3rd out, you can play for that bounce shipping to SA, on a day when eastern horses bombed out in BC. First time out did what you would like a good horse to do, 2 pt top, the off, and back to the top. Is it a jumping off point or does it look like the on/off pattern.
This is a very close call to me, it comes down to what I know, and the frosted issue trumps the upstart interveneing on/off pattern and sick issue
RICH Wrote:
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> frosted pairs good numbers at 2 then makes that 4
> point move, you could have played for that bounce
> first time 3 yr, acclimating to GP, you would have
> wanted him to get back to the top 2nd out, he did
> not, not a good sign. However, he looked like he
> would at top of stretch in the FOY and we now know
> of the corected problem, and subsequent 2 pt move
> in wood. Looks good to me with only 2 pts of
> development from 2 yr old.
>
> Upstart pairs very good numbers 2/3rd out, you can
> play for that bounce shipping to SA, on a day when
> eastern horses bombed out in BC. First time out
> did what you would like a good horse to do, 2 pt
> top, the off, and back to the top. Is it a jumping
> off point or does it look like the on/off
> pattern.
>
> This is a very close call to me, it comes down to
> what I know, and the frosted issue trumps the
> upstart interveneing on/off pattern and sick issue
I don\'t know how helpful this is....but in broad sweeping terms.....i see these horses as being very close in talent level...but.....it seems that Upstart is probably 3 months ahead of where Frosted is. I would expect both of these horses to at some point pay a price for their efforts....i would expect Upstart to pay that price sooner than Frosted will....the reason is that Upstart has done more earlier....this may or may not be relevant for the Derby....but my guess for the next several months is that Frosted will fire the minus 2 level efforts for longer than Upstart will.
Another great tool to use in the horseplayer\'s toolbox is ones eyes.
Numbers,performance indicators, pedigree numbers, graphs, pattern, etc----all necessary tools.
My eyes tell me that Upstart will have a very difficult time getting a classic distance at this point in his career versus colts of this level. My eyes in this case will overrule his past performances, numbers, patterns. They\'ve been wrong before, but I trust them as much as any other tool that I use.
Good Luck,
Joe B
I\'m waiting for the final package before I purchase, so haven\'t seen Upstart\'s latest sheet but Frosted\'s pattern screams bounce to me. The surgery muddies the water a little but I\'m willing to take a stand against.
Bet Twice Wrote:
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> I\'m waiting for the final package before I
> purchase, so haven\'t seen Upstart\'s latest sheet
> but Frosted\'s pattern screams bounce to me. The
> surgery muddies the water a little but I\'m willing
> to take a stand against.
I think that a quick look may trigger the thought that he screams bounce....he made a big jump up at the end of last year and bounced in Florida and then just did the same in the Wood so on quick inspection you might expect the same bounce.
HOWEVER, I would not be so fast to reach that conclusion. First, the big jump up at the end of the 2yo year may not be as nearly a big jump up as it may appear. For one thing, it was first Lasix. I view first Lasix as sort of making a new horse....so if he was a 4 before that and then ran a zero, then he is a zero horse now. The other thing is that he was a lightly raced improving 2 year old....just because he pre-lasix numbers were slow, it is not right to use those to say the first Lasix was such a big jump if those numbers were his early races and he was just learning and figuring this stuff out.
Then, the bounce in florida may well be associated with acclimatization factors or the throat factors. whatever figure you give him in the Wood, it indicates the two florida races were temporary setbacks whatever they were and in the Wood he is coming back to what he was. Whether that is a pair up of the two year old number or it was a two point top giving credit for the extra time experience and development, the point is that it is early in this horse\'s career to say he has a bounce tendency. People are quicker to give horses\' bounces than the horses are to give you the bounces. Good three year olds running in consecutive grade 1 races should be pairing up and moving forward and not going back. Obviously, Frosted could do anything, but I for one would be not so hasty to just assume he is a prime bounce candidate.
BTW, there are people here casting doubt on the figure he ran saying it should have been slower. I do not question the figures, so I am not in that camp. HOWEVER, for anybody who may be so inclined to think that way, add two points to his figure....if you do that....then he paired up his two year old top winning the Wood. TO me that would be an insanely explosive pattern and I would expect him to run a new top in the Derby Anyway. So, if that is what you would do if he ran a little slower, should he be penalized because he ran two points faster? Two year olds turning three are supposed to improve between November and April.
Appreciate the different perspective. Agreed that you can make excuses for his poor efforts but I just don\'t care for the pattern. My opinion could change as we get closer and I see all the sheets along with pp but at this point willing to let him beat me.
I view Upstart the stronger of the two.
1) Extra week.
2) Of the two, Upstart has the better long-term conditioning line. He\'s come back quicker from his biggest efforts.
Upstart is definitely a player here. Him pairing up and winning is very easily in the realm of possible outcomes.
To me the breeding is not as big an issue. If it were, it would have cropped up at 1 1/8. He\'s definitely got the dam side stamina influence.
I\'ve been on the Upstart bandwagon for a while (and bandwagons can cloud thinking), but he\'s my pick. He\'s got 4 negative numbers (and a 0) on his sheet, one posted the race after his top. Fosted took 2 months off his top, went back three points, and then went back again. I don\'t see how he doesm\'t move back significantly off this new one.
If Frosted were some super horse who, as a three year old, could run big consecutive negative numbers, we should have seen some evidence of that so far. Maybe Upstart can\'t do it either, but he\'s shown he doesn\'t fall to pieces after running a number few 3 year olds ever do.
The point you are missing with Frosted is that he was running away from upstart in the FOY and looked like he was going to win by open lengths when he abrubtly stopped and hit the breaks. If he doesn\'t flip his pallet, what fig does he get and what would his pattern look like then? I think you draw a line through the FOY altogether.
Even the Holy Bull becomes, in hind sight, a little mysterious (re: perfect heath) given Frosted didn\'t finish as he typically does.
It was his first start of the year. How cranked did the trainer have him for the first off the bench? Obviously Upstart is a very nice horse, but Frosted looked much the best in the FOY until he hit the brakes.
Already told you that Wood day made no sense when you do figs off the clock vs SOLELY off the horses. Guess you used El Kabir and two also rans to get where you did.
In fairness (to myself), MJ asked to ignore those other factors. But, the fact that you\'re looking for (what may be justifiable) excuses in the two races that they faced each other says something.
If the sheets were the same, just 5 points slower, I might like Frosted\'s line better. But we\'re hitting the rev limiter with these numbers.
Upstart\'s only worse-than-a-zero in his last 6 races was flying across country late in the game to just miss second to Carpe Diem in that oddly run Juvy. They\'re going farther here, but I\'m going to pencil him in for a zero or better.
Tavasco wrote:
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Even the Holy Bull becomes, in hind sight, a little mysterious (re: perfect heath) given Frosted didn\'t finish as he typically does.
miff Wrote:
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> Already told you that Wood day made no sense when
> you do figs off the clock vs SOLELY off the
> horses. Guess you used El Kabir and two also rans
> to get where you did.
I was just considering whether Frosteds health problems started earlier than the FOY? Thanks for adding to an already confused mind.
Agree
The Wood is one of four or five major preps and its hard to focus on that particular figure in my mind, given the disagreements and conjecture. Bottom line a Godolphin, who had had a tough winter in Florida, wins very solidly. Most years, this type is certainly single digits to win the Derby. Not this heat, twenty to one is plenty possible with a bad draw. If fast enough, in the past, you can\'t fault anyone on his bandwagon.
Upstart is pure racehorse who is not far from being undefeated and he lights it up on both the track and on the \"Thorometer\" every time. Lost on a floated surface in the Champagne to a freakish performance, got the worst of the draw on the left coast and always competes. A Ny bred, both grandfathers Belmont winners, but, he also had some missteps in Miami with a sinus infection and maybe antibiotics? Another that would ordinarily be single digit odds; yet twelve(ish) to one seems likely. Would guess many \"TG\"ers may land here.
At any rate, I\'m not a sheet player expert but separating these two seems a dicey proposition; of course that may be the intent of the thread originator Mjellish? bbb
If I counted correctly, that\'s 6 excuses for Upstart. His next one should be that he\'s trained by Rick Violette.
Good Luck,
Joe B