I don\'t see anyone who can run early with this horse. Another Spend A Buck?
His breeding/distance limitations are a concern, but I see a horrible crop here with soooooo many question marks. Mike Smith is a great guy but is not a master of pace like Jorge Velasquez, but I\'d rather be in front and out of trouble than to take my chances elsewhere.
Smarty is an o-2-X waiting to happen.
Cliff\'s Edge should bounce.
Tapit is interesting, but I\'d be very surprised if this horse is higher than 4-1 at post time making him an underlay.
Master David might get a check.
Can I get 4-1 on Lion Heart?
This Derby is wide open. Harlan\'s Holiday was the 6-1 fav a few years ago, wouldn\'t be surprised to see the same scenario. LH 5-1+ easy. Too many distance questions for the public.
LION HEART will be higher than 5-1, but probably lower than 10-1. He will give them all they can handle.... a terrific use in the exactas.
Good Luck,
Joe B.
Doesn\'t the fact that he\'s been caught at 8F and 9F bother you?
Now he tries 10F in a race with more speed. Plus, his breeding for 10F is dubious, and he only has two starts at age three. Will he have the stamina to hold off 19 other horses?
Lion Heart 10-1 to 12-1
No, it doesn\'t bother me as the 2 races this year were not the ultimate prize. He still ran real fast TG figs, among the best in the field.
More speed? He\'ll be in front by 3 as far as he goes, and that\'s my only concern because he has no points in his stamina wing, but neither did Sunday Silence and a few subsiquent Derby winners. The breed is not what it used to be. The only horse in this field with points in all 5 wings is Tapit.
MO wrote:
> More speed? He\'ll be in front by 3 as far as he goes
I\'m not nearly as certain of that as you are MO. Take this with a grain of salt, because I\'m feeling very humble. Hopefully the humility will bear out in regard to my wagering plans...lol But Sinister G. is a very quick horse. I believe he\'s got one game and that appears to be front end. I heard they are putting blinkers on, in part because he was \"jumping tracks\" in the Wood. I think anyone assuming Lionheart is gonna get an easy lead may have a big surprise in store. Personally, I think its Lion that is gonna have to rate some. If you missed it Sinister G. made the lead on the turn from far outside in the Wood. However, if you have two committed front end horses in a big field and one of them has gate problems you have a possible Spend a Buck scenario. I guess a lot depends upon the horse you compare to Spend a Buck and the horse you compare to Eternal Prince.
I\'m with Chuckles. I think Sinister G will be sent hard.
\"No, it doesn\'t bother me as the 2 races this year were not the ultimate prize.\"
I\'d argue that nothing Biancone has done in North America suggests that he knows how to prepare a horse in such a way that he\'ll be ready to peak for the Big Race, whether it\'s the Derby or the BC Juvy.
Mayakovsky, Why Why Why, Brancusi...
This guy is pedal to the metal if you ask me. I believe Lion Heart has shown us his very best.
I have found the BRIS pace figures to be quite good and base my calculations for the pace scenario of this race on them. Sinister G may be sent, but he\'ll be chasing Lion Heart, not dueling. However, if LH chooses to stalk, I can live with that as well.
I\'m of the opinion that Lion should be around the 8-1 range.
I too think he will shake loose of these down the backstretch. As far as Sinister G. goes, I don\'t think he has as much natural speed as Lion.
There is the adage that says that as a horse stretches out in distance he may relax more(he does not need to use as much energy securing a clear lead as he does going shorter)
So if he can get away with lets say a 47.5 or 48 half and go 1:11.5 or 1:12 for 6F while being clear a length or two, then use that little burst he has to open up three turning for home, he will be awfully tough.
Keep in mind, the two horses that ran him down this year had to run the race of there lives to do it(new tops) and he was well clear of 3rd both times. And if he runs his race, someone will need another new top to take this very fast fellow down.
I\'m not sure we\'ve seen his best!
On the who will be on the lead question, connections of those with no hope, who are there to run in the Derby rather than win it, are more likely to want to see their horse in front. Those with serious intent-- especially if there are distance questions-- are more likely to rate. Also, as Watchmaker observed last week, Mike Smith never saw a wide path he didn\'t like.
HOWEVER-- in your run of the mill Derby, 17 horses or so, the average path is about 3 or 4 on each turn, as opposed to a little over 2 in an ordinary race, and every path on a turn is worth a length, or 1/2 point at this distance. In a 20 horse field there is going to be chaos as horses try to come from out of it, and there will be horses who get a 2 turn combined path of 10. Which means a horse who races near the lead and gets a combined path of 4 or 5 will pick up a few lengths from the average horse, and more from some, and won\'t have to deal with the serious traffic problems some will encounter.
Lionheart has to be factored as a big contender and I agree with you that he may not have really been pointed for the previous two, though if that was the case Lionheart probably didn\'t know it.
I understand the logic of him as a selection. Good last number, on its face not too big to knock him out, Cliff could find trouble. Plus Lion hasn\'t always been on the front, I\'m not positive he needs it. He picked up from Limehouse after a quarter last. He ran the Bluegrass with a 46:60 half on a slowish track and he went wideish on the clubhouse turn. That split says he\'s got leader potential. Sinister is right there though. Value Plus is not a slow horse and I think he was running early last, how do his BRIS pace numbers stack up with Lionheart do you know?
I think he probably can run well pressing or from just off. It\'s an intriguing race. Even the pace scenario has drama.
Chuckles,
Here are the pace figures for the horses you mention, the higher the number, the faster the pace. (Most recent race 1st and using only 3 yo form)
Lion Heart - 108-105
Sinister G.-94-91-94-106(Mud,stopped)-100-98
Value Plus - 95-92-94
Others?
Read The Footnotes - 91-88
Smarty Jones - 94-84-100
Pollards Vision - 89-101-91-91
Quintons Gold Rush - 98-97-102
Seems to me around this time last year there was a Distorted Humor gelding with speed who was always getting caught in shorter races.
The more I think about and try to analyze the pace Scenario and looking at the numbers, I come to what seem to be a logical outcome. And thats kinda scary. See if you can follow me if you will.
If Lion runs his race, someone will have to come and pick him up. I don\'t think he\'s spitting out the bit by any means. The question then comes, who is fast enough to go get him. Taking into consideration what TGJB said concerning trips in the derby. A great deal of horses will lose a lot of ground. With that in mind, consider that the fastest horses will be on the pace or rating just of it with the exception of one. That should mean, pretty decent trips
for Lion Heart, Smarty Jones, Read The Footnotes. In a year such as this, I just can\'t see any of the others, save The Cliff\'s Edge and his fondness Churchill, working through a trip, getting up and winning the Roses while passing the fastest 3 yr olds of this crop.
Smarty figures right there, with what figures as a perfect trip, distance limitations and all
Footnotes figures for a similar trip off the bench. Can he get it done? Sure. Will he? we\'ll see.
Cliff\'s Edge will have what may be a more difficult trip, but off that last, maybe he\'s turned the corner.
These are indeed the fastest and considering they may get the best trips, does that mean a merry-go-round of sorts on Derby Day?
TCE had to run his eyeballs out to catch LION HEART. I\'m thinking that there\'s a better than 50-50 chance TCE bounces to the moon.
I do not think that LION HEART is SPEND A BUCK, but I agree that the closers in this race will not make anyone forget FOREGO or ALYDAR.
I\'m also thinking that the probable winner will catch LH inside the 1/16th pole and will have been positioned 3-4 lenghts off of him down the backstretch.
As far as his connections go, I agree that Biancone may not be the best fit for a young 3yo.trying to negotiate a 1 1/4m. As for Mike Smith, he tries to stay away from any path that may cause him to get claustrophobic. He\'s been riding like a family man for years now. What\'s he going to do if LH breaks from an inside post??
Good Luck,
Joe B.
This horse is clearly the speed of the speed. Smith will be able to choose his path regardless of where he breaks so long as he does so cleanly.
I hear what everyone is saying. My strong suspicion is when the race unfolds and you see who has the lead you\'ll know why you pay what you do for T-Graphs and you\'ll understand why you pay what you do for BRIS.
Chuck,
I only use BRIS for the pace figures. TG performance figures are the most important tool though, and LH figs are faster than most save 2, and good enough to win. Of course it will all depend on post time odds. If I can get 4-1 (and I think I\'ll be lucky to get 4-1 when all the discussion is finished), you can count on me havin\' my last $200.00 to win on LH. (With a reverse exacta wheel as a saver)
BTW, I know that you\'ll back me up on the Thunder Gulch issue as I recall you eventually were convinced after thorough review of the video tape. Can\'t find the discussion in archives, though. Good luck to you.
\"MO\" I remember the discussion well. What I saw supported you\'re position. At the time I seem to recall Stevens was in a bit of a slump. But I\'ve never really been comfortable with Pat Day being involved. I think Pat Day is an up and up guy both now and then. The kind of guy that wouldn\'t put himself in a position to be called a cheat, possessing the character to not sign goofy petitions. It certainly was an odd film. But Thunder won some big races after that so I\'m inclined to think that if he was buzzed Pat Day didn\'t receive the buzzer and that Thunder was good enough to win without being buzzed., i.e. Belmont, Travers, Kentucky Classic.
I was only referring to the BRIS pace number. You get what you pay for. I think Lionheart will be in the 6/8-1 range and I factor him a significant contender. Assuming I\'m correct about the pace, he\'s gonna get first run and what the others encounter may determine whether they get a run at him.
Came Home
Interesting comparison SC, care to elaborate? If I recall, the knock on Came Home was he couldn\'t get 10f, but eventually he did.
He was my big play in the Derby and my saver was War Emblem. I made a few bucks.
CTC,
I\'m not suggesting I expect this guy to get loose and lead this field a merry chase. Merely that based on everything I\'ve seen, barring anything unforseen at the gate, I expect him to be in front. I\'m not entirely sure a \"sent\" Sinister G or anyone else for that matter has the speed to play anything but pace presser.
Yes, Came Home eventually did against a good group older horses in the Pacific Classic and so did Chiefs Crown in his three year old season.
They just weren\'t up for the task as early as the first Saturday in May.
Good Luck.
Thanks. You too.
I don\'t know whats gonna happen for certain either. But assume Sinister gets gate number 4 and Lion Heart gate number 20. The gate is slightly slanted so that the inside horses have a small angle advantage. (At least that is my take on it after viewing the gate placement for years) Anyone wishing to comment on that perception feel free to do so and whether it makes much difference if it is slightly angled.
I have a higher opinion of Sinister G. than most is all. I don\'t view him as a cheap horse that is going be sent to the lead so that the owners can snap a picture at the finish line the first go round. If the shoes are reversed and Lion breaks from the four hole and Sinister the 20, that may change how I handicap the race. I will say I consider Lionheart vulnerable to early pace pressure. If it occurs, that in my opinion certainly has the potential to be his achilles heel, certainly in consideration of what we\'ve viewed from him in his last two. If you view him as an improving horse poised to run even better next the early pressure may not be a factor.
The track will have a lot say about it.
Why do you keep saying I hope I will get atless over 4-1, hes going to be no where around that, lowest he will go is 10-1, I see 12-1 closing odds.
\'The track will have a lot say about it.\'
Agreed.
Well, there\'s always speculation as to what a horse will go off at. Battaglia isn\'t gonna make a morning line favorite at more than 3-1. Smarty Jones will be the favorite at 5-2 post time, maybe less because of the unbeaten factor, the public sentiment hoping he wins a $5Million bonus.
The Cliffs Edge will be 7-2 based on the \"Zito popularity factor\" and his \"impressive\" race at KEE and the fact he like CD.
Tapit is gonna be bet because he won the Wood (3 of the last 4 winners were 1st or 2nd in that race) and because Dickenson is no secret anymore. People think he\'s a genius (could be) and a miracle worker.Dominguez was the leading rider in the country (in wins) last year.
After that, people will look for an edge and there are many who still believe in the dual qualifier system. Lion Heart is a Dual Qualifier. In fact he\'s rated higher than any other entrant save Action This Day (who is too slow).
I began this thread with the comment \"I don\'t see anyone who can run with LH early\" and many of the subsequent posts have agreed, which means, any novice can see that LH is gonna be loose on the lead, unless a gate mishap or a horrible draw happens.
There are enough heavy hitters out there who know that Speed Unchallanged Invariably Wins.
I\'ll post my morning line after the draw (I did this professionally for a year at Delaware Park)and we can see how close I come.
If you like LH as much as I do, I sincerely hope we both get 10-1!! But Martin Luther King had a dream too............
Post Edited (04-23-04 17:44)
In a 20 horse field, the average horse is going off at 16-1.
TCE and Smarty Jones both around 5/6-1 (possibly the longest favorite in Derby history), LH and Tapit around 8-1.
Lion Heart reminds me more of Congaree than Came Home, just faster.
I remember Came Home crawling home in the SA Derby in very slow time. Lion on the other hand has run faster as the distances increased.
pedigree: average to below average for 10f. (a bit like WE). tale of the cat\'s offspring win at an average distance of 6.6f, quite short. tg figures also point towards TOTC producing short winded runners. average winning distance for broodmare sire (mr leader) is 7.5f, decent, but not ideal for 10f runners. overall, female family is mixed with sprinters and routers. with hail to reason and nijinski in his pedigree, dosage is on the low side (3.0). stretching from 9f to 10f, i would expect a horse with LH\'s pedigree to regress a bit, but would not be shocked if he got a bit brave.
pace scenerio: PV, QGR, and SJ should all be running fast early (expecting the connections of SG to run next in a race where a \"5-6\" will be competitive). if LH runs faster than :47, he will be on the lead, if he runs slower than that, he will have company. bottom line: LH should be able to get the lead, but will have to run a demanding opening half to be alone (for a 10f race).
the #\'s: as a 2 yr old, the move forward when stretching from 6f to 7f was encouraging, but when stretching to 1 1/16m off 5 weeks rest, LH regressed by a few lengths. the late pace # was not all that good either (90 on the bris scale). after a nice freshening, LH came back in march, and ran a very fast mile, but once again, ran slow late in the race (another 90 late pace #). after a 5 weeks rest, LH comes back and runs one of the fastest derby preps ever over the kee strip. while kee is well known for favoring front running horses, the track that day was not all that fast, and LH still ran a quick 1:49.2, while losing ground by running a bit wide. i was impressed by his race. the overal # of the race was excellent, and the late pace # was average (103)..........
my take on LH is this: i have never thought LH would be a great router, yet i still singled him in the blue grass, mainly because the race was at keenland. so i am stuck asking myself these questions: will LH follow the usual path of speedball that runs well in the blue grass, then flops in the derby??? will LH bounce in the derby because the blue grass took so much out of him??? will LH pull the same stunt as WE, catching some of the other speed off guard while taking advantage of a derby day track that always seems to be juiced up??? right now i am leaning towards tossing the horse if the track is playing neutral on derby day, and using him only in the 3 and 4 spots if the track is playing fast.
Super Work, Mr D
thanks...... my top two choices are not running, so if i do this for every horse, i just might talk myself into a good bet (based on past performance, it\'s unlikely though).
I\'ll go out on a limb fully prepared to make a fool of myself.
Lion Heart has such weak final fraction energy I can\'t see him hitting the board. His late energy is about par for 20k claimers. As for the pace scenario, I think they\'ll try to rate him, he\'ll make a brief middle move approaching the turn, and will hit the wall in mid stretch.
Catalin
If you look at the charts you\'ll see Keeneland played very fairly to all pace styles Bluegrass Day. That fact and the good closing fractions for the top two in the Bluegrass is the best evidence in my opinion for saying a race over that very quirky surface is as legitimately big as the figure makers have made it. I know that last sentence sounds illogical.
The last horse to truly run well in the Bluegrass and win was Strike the Gold.
Sea Hero ran fourth there.
Thunder Gulch ran fourth as well. No Derby winner has run the Bluegrass since Thunder Gulch and in my opinion the track is a different track now than it was then. I haven\'t trusted that track since Pulpit looked so impressive there.
Heres one for TGJB, if someone is inclined and has the time to look into it. What were the T-Graph figures for the winners of the 9 mark major preps in 1997:
Santa Anita Derby
Bluegrass
Wood
Arkansas Derby
Fla. Derby
MO, I also want to comment here on the BRIS pace figures you cited:
Lion Heart - 108-105
Sinister G.-94-91-94-106(Mud,stopped)-100-98
With Sinister that Wood was on a day the one turn races were very fast and the exact nature of the two turn variant very much debatable. Jerry breaks one and two turn races and I\'m aware of his figures for the Wood and am in accord with them. But I have to wonder if Jerry could even give you a two turn variant upon which to base a pace figure upon:
4up,SHdcp,~35K,10.5:24.26, 49.35, 1:14.86, 1:39.24, 2:03.41, 2:09.63
3yr,750k,9f: 23.74, 47.12, 1:11.40, 1:37.03, 1:49.70
___________________________
3Up,MSW,7f:23.07, 45.96, 1:10.31, 1:22.80
4up,NW2X,8f:22.69, 44.91, 1:09.42, 1:35.41
3up,MSW,7f:22.68, 45.58, 1:10.32, 1:23.46
3up,NW2L,8f:22.75, 45.03, 1:09.85, 1:35.16
4up,NW1X,7f:22.09, 44.23, 1:08.65, 1:21.61
3yr,150K,7f:22.39, 44.39, 1:08.27, 1:20.67
3up,350k,7f:21.77, 43.50, 1:07.52, 1:20.22
4up,NYNW2X,8f:22.97, 45.99, 1:10.33, 1:36.66
I wonder about BRIS\'s methodology for one vs two turns.
As for Sinister\'s Lanes End variant, I have significant reason to believe he actually ran a much quicker pace variant than BRIS has credited him with.
Even BRIS has apparently credited Sinister with a 106 at two turns back a few races. To my mind you have to reach that far back to get a fair approximation of Sinisters two turn pace ability. Even then, I wouldn\'t trust BRIS.
also thanx silver...u did spoil my Keeneland theory though lol
Post Edited (04-23-04 23:06)
ok..... now you have to ask: was it too big?
the horse has had nice breaks between his route races, now he cuts back to three weeks. i have seen some of biancone\'s horses run their eyeball\'s out one race, then run 2f and stop the next (and yes, i know what he accomplished in europe). great horse, and a brilliant blue grass, but plenty of questions still remain.
Remember now, horses have been getting faster:
Captain Bodgit: Fla Derby-6
Wood-4 1/2
Free House: SA Derby 4 1/2
Pulpit: Blue Grass 5 1/2
Crypto Star: 5 1/2
And The Derby Winner:
Silver Charm
And if you want to watch him and all the other winners click on this link.
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2004/derby_history/derby_charts/years/1997.html
One more try
Post Edited (04-23-04 22:45)
great year for preps. i can remember watching CB run by pulpit in the stretch at around 4-1. i also remember the free house race very well, as i made a killing on that race betting the wrong part of the entry. were those two races on the same day back then? i seem to remember sitting in the same chair watching the simulcasts at the meadowlands.
I know some people try to handicap the Derby as if it were just another race but it isn\'t. It is unique. The crowd, the longer distance, the very large field, the hopes and dreams of all the riders/trainers/owners, and the long run to the first turn make it a singular event in the racing world.
In particular, all these factors usually contribute to a fast, early pace regardless of how fast the horses have been running in their preps. This year will be another large field with several quality speed horses (LH, SJ, QGR and RTF) and a few other quick horses of lesser quality. Unless they all draw into the middle posts (unlikely), those drawing inside or outside posts will probably feel forced to send their horses early to get or maintain a good position.
Here is a little data to chew on. Between 1985 and 1998 (I don\'t have the recent years handy) there were 11 Derbies run with 15 or more horses entered. Below are the 4f splits for each. Note that NONE was 47 or above.
45.2
46.4
46.8
46.6
46.0
46.4
46.8
46.6
45.8
46.2
46.4
The median is 46 and 2/5 seconds (7 of the 11 were that fast or faster). I think it is safe to say that we are likely to see fractions at least that fast this year. I would strongly recommend against handicapping the race assuming the LH will set a half mile fraction of 47 or slower and have the lead.
Also keep in mind that after the 2001 suicidal pace duel trainers and riders were reluctant to send their horses the last 2 years and subsequently front runners have won both races. I have a feeling that tactics may be very different this year given that recent history. Also, keep in mind that it almost never works to try and change tactics in the Derby and rate a speed horse and I just don\'t see it happening this year with several quality speed horses likely to take their chances using what worked to get them there.
Should be a fun Derby for sure. I am not saying that LH will not win, I am just suggesting that he will probably have to work hard throughout the entire 10f to do so.
Chris
Post Edited (04-23-04 23:13)
Where in the world have you been ??
Keeping info like the above post to yourself ??
Thanks Chris.
Lion Heart\'s 1/2 mile fractions going long are 46.3; 45.3; 46.2;
So I don\'t expect a 47 half at all. With Mike in the saddle and the usual souped up track at CD, I expect a sub 46 half. That\'s why he\'ll be 3 in front on the turn and the others will have to run their eye balls out to catch him.
I can hear Durkin now: \"Lion Heart is tenaaaaaatious - , he\'s still there!! Lion Heart, he\'s in front by 3!! Lion Heart, has won it!!Lion Heart has won the 130th running of the Kentucky Derby, and he was all heart today!!
ROFLMAO
the 2001 speed duel happened because two or three speedballs drew inside (way inside, like three of the four inside posts). unless we see the same kind of draw this year, don\'t bet on those fractions. as for the speed, i think SG is staying home, RTF will try to rate a bit, and smarty and QGR will do what they have been doing (running at a :47 clip or so). PV is the big wild card here. if JR goes for the lead, things could get a bit hot, if not, i say LH is on top hitting the half in :46.3
Very impressive analysis Chris. Thank you.
The fractions aren\'t as significant to me as the horses that set them and thats what I\'d like to know. I attempted to ascertain that. Though the source I\'m using doesnt have fractional leaders:
http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2003/derby_history/derby_charts/years/1997.html
2003- Brancusi/Peace Rules
2002- 47:04 War Emblem (wire job)
2001- Songandaprayer/Millenium Wind
2000- Graeme Hall
1999- 47:88 (Valhol..slow track)
1998- Old Trieste, stumbled led for a mile
1997- 47:2 Pulpit (hung on for 4th)
1996- Honor and Glory
1995- Serena\'s Song/Wild Syn (I enjoyed reading this chart...it said Afternoon Deelites didn\'t like my selection \"Jumron\" and quote \"attempted to savage him out of the gate\"...lol
1994- 47:1 (wire job)
1993- Storm Tower (Perkins trainee)
1992- 47:2 Dance Floor held on for 3rd
1991- Sea Cadet/Forty Something
1990- Real Cash (Lukas trainee)
1989- Houston
1988- Winning Colors (wire job)
1987- Capote (not sure though sounds contested)
1986- Groovy
1985- Spend a Buck (wire job)
When you view the horses you see some decent quality hot pace winners.
You see some that were good horses but maybe not 10 mark horses like Old Trieste had a horrible start) and Sea Cadet and Serena\'s Song and Peace Rules. ( I take that back about Sea Cadet, he won at 10 marks at Gulfstream)
Then you also see horses that really weren\'t Derby horses like Houston and Goovy and Real Cash.
The point being if the pace goes below 47 a quality Derby horse can win. But the other part of that issue is who are the quality Derby horses without the benefit of hindsight? Then there is the consideration of a 47 plus pace. The results tend to indicate even at that more moderate pace it still takes a horse with some 10 mark ability to win. You could argue that Go for Gin and War Emblem don\'t really fit that bill, but its argueable.
Post Edited (04-24-04 00:36)
Chuck,
Think long and you\'ll think wrong. Just bet the friggin house on Lion Heart like I\'m tellin you. I gotta have a reason after the race why LH was 4-1.
LOL
MO
Bet with both hands? lol
I don\'t know who I\'m gonna bet yet. I have a suspicion but the feeling hasn\'t come over me. Right now its based on logic and I\'m waiting for the magic feeling. I\'ll make a small box with the Lion if you\'re that confident...who knows I may even settle on him.
lol
CtC
OK, LionHeart is fast...and I am hearing you guys loud and clear about horses \"clear on the lead\"...but I can\'t get past the fact that he got caught going shorter - and at KNLD no less! With a field over twice as large, I just don\'t see it. He doesn\'t get it done. Why is everyone so insistent that he can beat more horses going farther?
Not trying to be a smarty (jones)a**, but...gee whiz.
I don\'t think SJ will be a speed horse in this derby, at the 6F time SJ might be around 6th to 8th, I think Lion and Lime will be the leaders at the top.